As i said earlier, i lost money on my last AMBA trade, i did have a stop which minimized my loss( always have a stop). From years of doing this, we always find ourselves spending far too much time searching for reasons for a drop in a stock we own. Realistically, it would be MUCH wiser to spend that time asking yourself why you didnt sell when the chart was showing weakness????
I made a post on thursday that clearly stated the chart pattern on AMBA was pointing to a very big move friday or monday; yes, i said that, i also said i was thinking up ( i was long) but it could go down. Of course a stock always goes UP OR DOWN.. I said a BIG move up or down and if it goes the wrong way, the trade is over.
I bought the stock based on the chart pattern , a bullish pennant. You had consolidation and some downside selling on very low volume which you normally see on this type of pattern. What i failed to look at ( enough) was 1) AMBA refused to go up with a strong market, it would be met with selling every time it made some ground. This didnt just happen once, it happened almost every day last week.
2) the RSI was clearly showing divergence from the recent high. The RSI was sloping downward. Hindsight is 20/20. I think as traders, we do notice some of these negative signs but choose to ignore it because we are on the other side of the trade. We also look back at previous trades where we DID get out of a trade but only to see the stock recover and bounce to where we thought it would.
Seriously, if you jumped out of a trade every time a stocks technicals started breaking down, you would be much better in the long run, despite a few times that you may be wrong.
So, rather than searching for reasons AMBA went down, look at the facts. It sold off on extremely high volume.
Why is that? Thats called following the smart money.
You have to follow the money, its very tough to turn on a stock that may be a good company. Bottom line, AMBA is not a good stock. There are thousands of stocks, its much wiser to jump into something with a solid story and in an up trend rather than waiting and hoping for that magical day that proves .all the sellers wrong. Im done with AMBA, it can go to 100 tomorrow and i wont care, i was wrong, the trade didnt work out so i am moving on. Good luck to everyone else.
The stock has been getting sold any time it started to gain traction and any time it went green . Someone was selling.
If the sell off today was " an overreaction" , it would of been bought and certainly would of been bought at the lows today, it wasnt, that tells me someone knows something and not only are shorts in it but big money longs sold yesterday and today, something is up. Ive been doing this long enough to know the sell off wasnt some misunderstanding, i lost some cash on this one but limited my losses with a stop,
This is either the high volume shake out i expected ( not this bad), or the beginning of more selling, stops are important guys, i am holding strong for NOW and not adding anything until i see strength.
The volume is extremely high today which i dont like..unless it reverses.
Guys, either today or Monday, this stock is going to either start to explode higher or sell off on heavy volume.
This stock has been consolidation on low volume which is normally what happens before a large move upward. This can be frustrating because the stock slowly drifts lower, that said, the volume is usually low which this is and we are right at the 50 dma. My feeling is higher as i am long. Im long at 56 bucks because i am a technical guy, if it starts to really break down i have to cut my losses, the next day or 2 will be tell tale.
This is the next area of any resistance, the stock is tightening up big time on the chart and is ready for a big move out of a bull flag( pennant) formation. The fundamentals also back up the move. I think the GoPro volatility is done effecting AMBA.
GoPro could still go lower but the bulls have a good story with AMBA's business not being totally reliant on GoPro. Although GoPro has very cool products.
The hunk of junk is now getting junkier. That bs rally gave some idiots false hope only to have their dreams crushed. Its a familiar story with INVN. Never trust a junky.