++ I calculate about $188/share.++
if Mitchell is right, we may be looking at a 200 mil or so mark to market hit. once upon a time buffett argued with the SEC and refused to, mark to market, in response to an SEC comment letter, but he gave up the fight and of course he was proven wrong. Meanwhile I see consensus estimates on ibm continue to drop , no one expects 16 $$ a share in 2015, and 16 $$ in 2016 looks like a tuff battle as well. WHAT is ibms, IV, today , in view of the FACT, that ibms earnings, are of, enormous importance, to buffett ? massive 20 billion dollar opportunity cost to buffett and his partners, massive.
is 10 xs 15.50 too high ?? is 8 xs the right number ? will ginny be running ibm in 2016 ? stay tuned.
++ It could be worse like xom or cvx. It could also be better like sbux hd or dis. ++
lol, hard to believe. did you know brkb is public ? I have never read one post on this board asking WHY buffett didn't buy, xyz over ibm, not one. I do recall a few posts since sept 2011 asking WHY he would buy ibm over brkb, trust me, brkb was public in 2011, it really was and THAT should be his hurdle, is what i'm buying more certain than brkb ?? poor todd and many others followed his mistake, compounding the pain.
hey brky, I cant remember, did I ever raise this issue before ? Think any expert at the annual meeting or on cnbc will ask, this year ? ok , I can dream, no ?
i'm sure that when buffett bought ibm in 2011 he thought it was selling at a discount to IV, based on representations made at the time by ginny and friends. buffett said earnings going forward were, enormously important, obviously ginny failed those expectations. What's IV, today in his opinion ? What does Gates think of IBM, today at 160ish ? Think anyone at cnbc would ever ask those questions of buffett or gates ? lol, maybe buffett will do an interview with nickelodeon and they will ask substantive questions ?? When buffett bought ibm in 2011 what did he think the IV of brkb was ? What did munger think IV of brkb was in sept 2011 ? who knows, maybe nickelodeon will get the chance to ask ??
++ Hell, you could even have written a Seeking Alpha article with those thoughts that might have been worth the read.++
I'll write the outline of what i'm trying to prove, YOU , get any and all compensation from seeking a, or any other publication you can get to run it. If you have the skills to research and write a coherent article, lets hook up and get this done. Lets put the myths to bed, lets disclose the facts, and we can shame cnbc for all the hours they wasted giving buffett a free pass for the past 10 years.
Maybe i'll ask the Brooklyn investor if he has any interest tho I don't think he's a , rock the boat, kind of guy ??
sean, you seem to have the skills, wanna, play, DISCLOSE THE FACTS , reality 101 ?? Thanks for the idea
what I want is the FACTS so that nice kids like todd don't blow their money. In the past 7-10 years I can only recall two times when buffett actively promoted a stock, HARD, that was the byd battery world wide pumpathon with munger and sokol when the stock was 10 plus and ibm. CNBC and other clowns keep pushing the great LIE, the greatest stock picker of ALL TIMES will be their guest, nonsense and LIES cost retail lots of money !! The FACT is buffett has been a contrary play in many instances the past 10 years. Those who sold into buffett promos have been the winners so far. Let buffett do a real interview and take a simple question, why have you been so bearish American stocks the past 7-10 years ? How can you support a 28 % pay raise for ginny, how ? I could add 10 more questions but even you might get the point. Would todd have sold his brkb to buy ibm if buffett didn't make the case ? Would axp and MANY others who wont admit it have sold ibm 195 puts on down if not for buffett promoting the stock ?
STOP THE LIE, following buffett into a stock pick can be very dangerous to your net worth, period !! Since buffett cant make the bullish case brkb, I guess I have to.
DOWN is GOOD, I know. shameful.
yahoo has made it very hard to follow threads, your post,
WEB#1 was fabulous! WEB#2, not so much.
WEB#1, 12/31/1979 to 6/30/1998, 18.5 years, 34.6% ATR.
WEB#2, 6/30/1998 to 6/30/2015, 17.0 years, 5.8% ATR. ++
That's brkb returns, right, what about his stock picks, returns, who will figure that out for the past 10 years ?
++ it's been on a very limited playing field due to size. ++
lol, you and beach should get a room, so much in common !! at least now I know its YOU, show me once since 2011 when I ever said buffett should have bought nflx over ibm, show me. btw, since you brought it up, could buffett have bought size in apple, goog, neflex, spy, brkb, etc since 2011 ? Maybe it was EZ to buy ibm for a reason !! I know brky I know, DOWN is GOOD for 5 years, I know !! say hello to beach for me and together reread the annual letter in 2011 and read what buffett REALLY said about ibm and earnings expectations. DOWN is GOOD, AAAAAAAAAmen.
jad, is that what BRKB , the stock, has done, or what his stock picks have done ?? if buffett had been averaging into spy monthly the past 20 years with all cash above say, 20 billion, wouldn't that have beat what buffett, todd, and ted have earned on their investment, picks ?
this applies to put sellers in many instances as well.
morning brky, I was worried about you. I figured maybe a 100 to 1 shot came in ?? YOU FINALLY understand buffett is not the greatest stock picker of all time, not even close, that buying ibm over brkb IS, the biggest mistake of his life, AND, he hasn't been a net buyer of stocks in many years.
HOWEVER, some day, no doubt an, expert, will label buffett the most unselfish CEO of ALLLLLLLLLLLL times, that might get the ball rolling toward the FACTS with respect to brkb, the STOCK, and its performance over long periods of time !! I thought sean might get it but so far, I don't see it. Since buffett and munger don't understand the bullish case, brkb, I don't expect many here to join me. Welcome back brky, who knows, maybe some day todd will, man up, and visit us ??
thanks fellas, other than ibm, when was the last year he was a big net buyer of common stocks ? So, ,my question is, why does the press still refer to buffett as the greatest investor of all time ? what does that mean ? how brkb has done vs spy LONGGGGGGGG term or how his stock picks have done vs spy?
seeking alpha. again, I don't think he drills down on the correct issues but worth the read. jad, sean, when was the last year that buffett was a large net buyer of stocks, not debt with kickers from 2008ish , a NET BUYER , a bull, US common stocks ? thanks.
cherry picking the trades to make the, pay off, never happens, never, amen.
This is what happens when Hillary gets advice from silly old men. What does buffett think about this plan ? Why not try get unemployment below 4 % by tying fat cat tax rates to the number of people they hire while they run the company ? So, in the case of ibm, if ginny reduces head count 5-10 % while she is the boss,to goose the stock, the tax rate on her options rises 10 % ??
H and Pam in 2016 !!