first the DISCLOSURE. YES i'm talking my book like I did in sept 2011.
i'm short the brkb puts again, long the stock, short calls.
IF brkb traded toward 120ish, I expect buffett to act, most likely scenario , reduce his role and open the envelope, that would be very bullish, imo. IF, IF, he reduces his role he opens the door, the new leader and our BODS just might say, hold it, a 1.50 div would increase DEMAND for brkb ! buffett could then say, hey, I turned over the reins, or is it, rains, to a new generation of thinkers, and they call the shots ! THEN, I have a chance to see brkb at 1.5 xs BV or higher. IF nothing changes and buffett stays healthy I expect 1.5 XS BV to be near the top of the price to BV range due to a lack of demand for brkb relative to the increased selling buffett continues to promote year after year. So, that's my thinking,I hope that might help others to THINK for themselves !
NOW, I can go to the strip and look for old ladies whose bags I can rob, with my pockets filled with roast beef !! Have a grand day all, tennis time.
In the past 60 days I greatly increased my exposure to brk, what catalysts are left and can brkb trade back to 1.5 xs BV ? First a reminder, for many years buffett said he would not split the Bs because a split would attract, inferior investors, that's what he said. Of course that was silly nonsense. This year he must have , slipped up, he told Beckypoo he likes his small investors, the point being, in subtle ways, he does admit he was wrong BUT it takes time, lots of time. WHAT can buffett do to increase demand ?
Playing the envelope game is an embarrassment, buffett should open the envelope by year end and reduce his role at brk . Buffett can mentor his top choice while he is healthy and sharp and give the pick an opportunity to step in and see if its a great fit. IF it doesn't work out, buffett can then go with plan B, pick number 2 and see if that's a better fit. That would be a major plus for potential long term buyers.
We know buffett isn't going to pay a div in the next two years, he doesn't change his thinking that quickly so that, friendly , move is off the table. PLEASE for the hopeless experts out there I know, I know, I know all about the, lets all sell 4 % of our brkb a year for the next 10 years , I know ! ITs idiotic and embarrassing, please don't remind me.
Amending the buyback. I expect another old timer with 500 million or more brk to pass and the estate to offer the block to buffett. I would HOPE buffett would amend to authorize buybacks at, material discounts to IV, but to be realistic , I think he would raise the limit to 1.25 BV and buy the block for a bit less than that OR raise the limit to 1.3 xs BV and pay 1.25ish xs BV, just like he did at 1.2 xs BV to buy that billion plus block.
WHATS the RISk to my play ??
lol, jad, I gave you a thumbs up before he gives you 6 down, lmfaoooooooooooooooo. unreal. i'm off to the buffet to stuff my pockets with roast beef !! too funny.
++ Clearly paying and rapidly growing the dividend (no doubt a result of increasing the payout ratio in combination with buying back shares) beat sitting on too much cash (while waiting for elusive elephants). ++
we agree except for one fact, if all a company had to do was raise its div and buyback its stock, ibm would be closer to 200, no ? brkb lacks DEMAND, Finance 101, WHY does it lack demand ? Does buffett ever ask, WHY is brk trading near 1.25 xs Bv ? Does Beckypoo EVER ask buffett WHY is brkb trading so poorly the past 5 years ? Has he let down his partners while allocating capital the past 5 years ? Wasn't there a time when rolling 5 year periods, mattered ? WHO changed the , rules , the yardsticks been moved, by WHO ?
we should see tax selling into year end, could see great values.
the first thing that came up via, g o o g. lol too funny.
for allowing Cramer and others to talk IPOs to their retail viewers. Cramer took the street dot con public in the very late 90s, he knows the con, he has become a national disgrace !! MAN UP Cramer, tell your viewers the ipo market is a stacked deck, and you will only cover companies AFTER they are public a year. Stop the nonsense sleep with a clear conscious !! Thank you.
btw, anyone know of any current books that deal with the ipo stacked deck ? maybe a few great chapters in a book ? articles on the subject ? i'll goog it ??
can you explain why you think brkb has underperformed spy in the 1 and 5 year periods ? Do ya think buying ibm over brkb has cost brkb longs 10s of Billions of lost value ? I'll leave out the other busted #$%$ shoots he made during the 5 year period. Thanks.
++ I understand berkshire better so I would probably opt for Berkshire stock, and no tax consequences there. That said, can you do a buyback without influencing the stock price? I'm not sure you can. ++
sean, really bud. r u saying current longs can sell 400, 000 shares a day in the aggregate , about 10 % of ADV, 80-100 MILLION dollars worth yearly , without affecting the stock price, but you aren't sure IF brkb can buy 2 BILLION a year or 1/2 the foundation sales a year without affecting the stock price ? seriously bro, even buffett AFTER falling down and banging his head wouldn't say that, no way. That's what happens when you read buffett nonsense, the experts in FOOLSville and even more ignorant nonsense from seeking alpha experts, U get VERY confused !! Have a grand day bud.
re THINK it bro.
sean, are partners better off IF he buys and promotes brkb at 1.22 xs BV or ibm at 175 ?
not a bad day to buyback puts on xle and xom on the open. maybe the expert stalker will get me in at the bottom again !! he is an expert on, bottoms.
z, thanks for siting that error !! will you be joining us on our date ? r u local ?
carry on princess and don't forget your good friends on the chdn board.
you show me your CONfirms , buying, tsla, lnkd, and panw, show me your posts rec these stocks and I'll give you another 100k, in 20s, so you can pay the working girls without asking for change. THEN, I show you my last 12 months statements so you can see every trade for the year. Man up little girl or stay in the bushes and throw spitballs everywhere you post. Go back to the CHDN board where you are loved and respected. Have a grand day, come take my money, expert. btw, bring all 7 IDs with you and i'll give them 500 $$ each as well !!
++ In connection with this offering, we, our directors and executive officers, and holders of % of our common stock prior to this offering have each agreed with the underwriters, subject to certain exceptions, not to dispose of or hedge any of our or their common stock or securities convertible into or exchangeable for shares of common stock during the period from the date of this prospectus continuing through the date days after the date of this prospectus, except with the prior written consent of the representatives of the underwriters. See “Underwriting” for a description of these lock-up agreements. ++
wow, I stopped reading these filings last year because they made me ill. Gotta say, this filing has the risk factors covered in spades, WELL DONE !! BUT, BUT, how many investors can read, between the lines ? From the filing.
++ Future sales, or the perception of future sales, by us or our existing stockholders in the public market following this offering could cause the market price for our Class A common stock to decline.
After this offering, the sale of shares of our Class A common stock in the public market, or the perception that such sales could occur, could harm the prevailing market price of shares of our Class A common stock. These sales, or the possibility that these sales may occur, also might make it more difficult for us to sell equity securities in the future at a time and at a price that we deem appropriate. ++
I posted, you know what to do. TODAY, with the VIX at 17ish and the market UP 6-7 %, you know what to do, bud. I may not buy back the brkb puts if the spreads are stupid, i'll just stay short, but xom, ge, gm, xle, maybe spy i'll buy em back and hope for another spike in the VIX down the road. good luck bud.