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Stillwater Mining Company Message Board

hockeyguy548 19 posts  |  Last Activity: Jan 2, 2015 3:23 PM Member since: Jul 9, 2011
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  • is (dot) gd/LLRPMF

    Platinum Group CEO: Yeah, I issued shares. I'm building a mine


    Air Date: 1/02/2015-11:40 AM

    Platinum Group Metals is building its WBJV project in South Africa amid a mine finance drought so the company was willing to dilute shareholders' equity by printing more than 200 million shares. CEO Michael Jones tells us why he made the move.

  • Hey guys,

    Here are some more recent Platinum Group Metals Limited analyst reports:

    is (dot) gd/1fq9l0

  • According to Dundee Capital Markets:

    Is (dot) gd/J53PhV

    Alderon Iron Ore Corp.

    (ADV-T: C$0.27)

    December 9, 2014

    NEUTRAL, Speculative Risk

    Dundee target: C$0.30

    "Cash Preservation" Mode Following Rapid Price Decline

    We are downgrading Alderon Iron Ore to NEUTRAL from BUY on the recent development (financing) delay and added dilution. Our 12-month share price target declines to $0.30 from $3.90/sh as we push production back four years to 2020 and lower our DCF multiple to 0.6x from 0.8x, assuming cash costs and tax breaks are maintained, and the doubling of production to 16 MM tpa is no longer an option. We aren't walking away from the Kami Iron Ore Project in Labrador, and are in fact pleased that development hadn't progressed any further or liabilities could have created enormous problems for Alderon. For the time being, commodity prices being what they are, Alderon has the option to defer development and its cash burn, saving Kami for another day. With our long term iron ore prices maintained at US$88/t, in line with consensus, we believe that Kami could ultimately get built later in the decade should prices rebound - but raising $1 B debt and $600 MM equity may be a challenge and provide only a modest $33 MM NPV. Our current assumptions still allow a 10% DCF valuation methodology and don't necessitate modification to cash-plus-resource-value stance. Should investors believe that Kami is not feasible and may be for sale, then perhaps the cash and tonnes-in-the-ground resource valuation is right for ADV. Assuming peer average resource value of U$$0.02/t, and net cash of C$10 MM, then ADV should trade around C$0.26/sh - as it does. We'd say that Kami project becomes an interesting target for patient acquirers.

    A cash preservation program has been implemented to help sustain ADV through 2017 without additional capital. ....

  • According to Dundee Capital Markets:

    is (dot) gd/IV9ven

    Platinum Group Metals Ltd.

    Rating: BUY, High Risk

    Dundee target: C$1.15

    $110MM Equity & $40MM Debt To Help Fund WBJV P1

    Platinum Group Metals announced a US$110MM bought deal at US$0.53/sh, a 13% discount to the 10 day VWAP. Concurrently a $40MM operating loan facility with Sprott was announced at a rate of LIBOR +8.5%. Proceeds, along with the company's ~$141MM in cash should fund remaining ~$240MM capex at WBJV P1 if PTM's interest remains at 74%. As a result of dilution, our NAVPS decreases from C$1.79 to C$1.46. We have decreased our target multiple from 1.0x to 0.8x due to increased uncertainty surrounding its BEE partner's portion of remaining capex and potential capex inflation as costs have not been updated since 2009.

    Debt & Equity Financing Replaces Previous Senior Unsecured Notes: Yesterday, PTM announced it had discontinued its intention to offer $150MM in senior unsecured notes due 2021 which included a full share warrant, announced November 3, 2014. The unsecured notes will be replaced with a $40MM senior secured operating facility from Sprott Resource Lending at LIBOR +8.5% and a US$110MM equity financing at US$0.53/sh. This is PTM's third equity issue (~$477MM total) over the past two years (Figure 1) and the Sprott deal represents the company's fourth debt arrangement for the WBJV P1.

    • Senior Secured Operating Facility (up to US$40MM): The facility has an interest rate of LIBOR +8.5% and can be drawn following first commercial concentrate from the WBJV P1. PTM is targeting Q4/15 for first production, while we conservatively model Q1/16. Terms also include 1) a US$1.5MM bonus payment to Sprott upon closing payable in shares, 2) a 2% drawdown payment, 3) a US$100k cash structuring fee and 4) a 4% cash standby fee, post-closing, on un-advanced principal. We note the debt terms are at the high end of recently announced debt deals in the space (Figure 2).

  • Hey guys,

    Here are some more recent Allied Nevada Gold Corporation analyst reports:

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  • According to BMO Capital Markets:

    Platinum Group Metals


    Stock Rating: Outperform(S)

    Stock Price: $0.87

    Target Price: $1.90

    November 26, 2014

    Fiscal 2014 Results; Funding Activities Continue

    PTM reported a fiscal 2014 loss of C$10.4M or C$0.02/share. At present, PTM holds cash of C$78M, down from C$108M at the end of August 2014 and C$161M at the end of May 2014.

    Our View:

    - As a development and exploration company, PTM’s earnings are relatively immaterial. However, cash management and the progress of the WBJV remains key for the company.

    - The development activities of the WBJV remain on schedule and within budget for start-up in calendar Q4/15. The project is 64% complete with stockpiling of early ore now underway. As of 31 August, the WBJV had incurred total capex of C$388M out of an estimated peak funding requirement of C$600M (including working capital).

    - The recently announced debt offering, consisting of C$150M senior unsecured notes and 55.2M common share purchase warrants, is yet to be priced and the timing of closure has not been provided. Completion of the offering and the drawdown of the funds (likely not needed until early calendar 2015), remain paramount for PTM to complete construction and begin commissioning the WBJV on time and budget.

  • is (dot) gd/I59UgS

    Cameco not eager for sales contracts at current prices - CEO

    WINNIPEG, Manitoba

    Friday, November 21, 2014 2:32pm EST

    Nov 21 (Reuters) - Canadian miner Cameco Corp is not interested in signing long-term uranium sales contracts at current prices, and utilities who buy the radioactive material to power nuclear reactors are also cautious, Chief Executive Tim Gitzel said on Friday.

    Gitzel said despite the recent bounce in uranium prices, Cameco still sees challenging conditions in the short and medium terms for the sector.

  • is (dot) gd/I59UgS

    Cameco not eager for sales contracts at current prices - CEO

    WINNIPEG, Manitoba

    Friday, November 21, 2014 2:32pm EST

    Nov 21 (Reuters) - Canadian miner Cameco Corp is not interested in signing long-term uranium sales contracts at current prices, and utilities who buy the radioactive material to power nuclear reactors are also cautious, Chief Executive Tim Gitzel said on Friday.

    Gitzel said despite the recent bounce in uranium prices, Cameco still sees challenging conditions in the short and medium terms for the sector.

  • Is (dot) gd/B2DRse

    Ucore Rare Metals Inc. - Ken Collison, COO, Singapore Nov 2014


    Uploaded on Nov 13, 2014

    Ken Collison, COO, Ucore Rare Metals Presents in Singapore International Rare Earth Investment Conference November 2014

  • is (dot) gd/vbHdDa

    Bankable Feasibility Study - Q4 2015

    Permitting - Q2 or Q3 2016

    Production - Q4 2017

  • hockeyguy548 hockeyguy548 Nov 13, 2014 10:48 AM Flag

    According to Mark MacDonald (Vice President of Business Development for Ucore Rare Metals Inc.):

    The two technologies are akin to one another. Some would say that MRT is actually a specialized sub discipline of SPE. They both use a solid phase (filter) and a liquid phase (eluent), the latter of which is washed through the former. They are both nano scale technologies which essentially ``trap`` the rare earth metals at a molecular level. Our research into SPE actually led us to investigate MRT, and we found the latter to be substantially more effective at selectively binding to individual rare earths. So, MRT and SPE are essentially two branches of the same technological discipline. However, we found MRT to be a great deal more proven in bulk scale industrial and mining applications, and potentially more efficient and cost effective. This highly developed model was simply adapted to the REE industry. The vast majority of operational and scalability risks have been eliminated. Dr. Hammond is a corporate friend and mentor but is very busy growing Metals US with their SPE technology. This is also a powerful and effective technology with vast potential in many processing, recycling and remediation applications. As mentioned however, MRT captures all the attributes of speed, efficiency and accuracy with the added value of proven scalability in metal processing and a successful commercial track record.

  • is (dot) gd/mfDysI

    The Bokan project hosts a potential World class deposit for dysprosium, used to make high-tech m Magnets for modern defense contractors. In 2012, the US Defense Department entered into a strategic partnership with Ucore to bring the resource into production, showing the extent to which the US government wants ways to reduce reliance on China for rare earths. Technology was always going to be one of Ucore’s most appealing aspects both because of its targeted end users and, more significantly in this pre-production phase, thanks to its testing of advanced processing methods such as Molecular Recognition Technology (“MRT”).

    MRT allows for the production of a near quantitative separation of heavy rare earth concentrate “consisting of 99+% of rare earth elements from a pregnant leach solution (PLS)” using beneficiated material sourced from Ucore’s property in Southeast Alaska. In order to achieve the separation of individual high purity rare earth salts it is necessary to first achieve a high purity HREE Concentrate. The PLS tests, performed by IBC Advanced Technologies in Salt Lake City, Utah, “yielded a 99% pure HREE Concentrate, separated as a group, using proprietary MRT SuperLig® resins in fixed bed format.” The resulting HREE Concentrate is a carbonate salt rare earth concentrate that includes critical REE’s from samarium to lutetium. Ucore can then use these salts to deliver products based on specific customer requirements, producing anything from oxides, to nitrates, carbonates or any other salt for each individual REE metal, according to specifications, while retaining the ability to sell the HREE concentrate itself to other rare earth separation facilities. So revolutionary is Ucore’s separation technology that, if proven successful, it could spur research into alternative rare earth separation technologies and a quest for licenses from other miners to either adopt MRT for their own processing facilities or to use Ucore’s own.

  • According to RBC Capital Markets:

    Is (dot) gd/AHBPWw

    November 9, 2014

    Alderon Iron Ore Corp.

    Sector Perform (prev: Outperform)

    Speculative Risk

    Price Target CAD 0.60 ↓ 2.00

    Downgrading to Sector Perform with lower iron ore price forecasts

    Our view: We are downgrading Alderon from Outperform to Sector Perform with downward revisions to our iron ore price forecasts. In our view, ongoing iron ore market weakness over the next several years increases the risk associated with Alderon's ability to finance and execute its Kami project.

    Key points:

    Downgrading with lower iron ore price assumptions: We have updated our model to incorporate lower iron ore price forecasts in the medium- term, which we expect will compound challenges associated with securing financing, delay execution of the 75%-owned, early-stage Kami project, and weigh on Alderon's share performance. Our NAV declines from $2.57 to $0.94, and we are downgrading our recommendation from Outperform to Sector Perform with a decline in our target price from $2.00 to $0.60. See page 3 for details of estimate revisions.

    Iron ore prices to remain at the US$80-85/t level through to 2018: Iron ore prices have recently weakened beyond our expectations, with spot 62% iron ore fines down over 40% YTD with seaborne supply growth and weaker Chinese demand. We are revising our medium-term iron ore price forecasts downward to reflect the sharper than anticipated drop in prices and the expectation of ongoing oversupply. We maintain our long-term forecast of US$80/t. See page 3 for details of new and previous iron ore price forecasts.

    Challenges of executing Kami accentuated by iron ore market weakness: Alderon targeted a debt raise of up to $1B this year to fund construction of the $1.3B Kami project in the Labrador Trough. A 40% off-take agreement with Glencore in July was a positive step towards securing financing, with 100% of production now committed to Glencore and Hebei Iron Iron & Steel.

  • According to Raymond James:

    Is (dot) gd/EuJfsk

    North American Palladium Ltd.

    November 6, 2014

    No Margin For Error


    3Q results continued to highlight PDL’s financial struggles, as its cash balance dropped to $11.8 mln, down primarily on $32.2 mln cash interest paid, most of it to Brookfield, the issuer of the prohibitively-high-cost debt that keeps pressuring the equity. We believe PDL’s management now has no margin for error and will need a combination of creative cash management, favorable PGM prices, improved operating efficiency underground, and swiftly optimized milling operations in order to continue as a going concern. We, however, remain cautious that all these factors will go PDL’s way and have thus lowered our target price to C$0.10 (from C$0.25), reiterating our Underperform rating.


    - Production of 32.6 koz Pd missed our estimate of 41.8 koz Pd by 22% on lower grades. While throughput actually went up both sequentially (+12%) and vs. our forecasts (+4%), the impact of the fatality at LDI (previously disclosed) appeared to have had a more profound impact on U/G mining. As a result, more of the lower grade surface ore was put through the mill, which, along with disappointing U/G head grades, contributed to the 22% miss on blended Pd grades and 3.3-point miss on recoveries, and was only partially offset by higher mill throughput (Exhibit 1).

    - Reaching the 5,000 tpd U/G mining rate remains an elusive target. Having worked through most problems with the ore handling system, primary surface crusher, and oversized muck, LDI continues to face equipment availability issues that will likely prevent the company from reaching the goal of 5,000 tpd both this year and next.

    - PDL’s inability to fully utilize its new shaft should lead to a guidance miss in 2014 and higher cash costs over the next several quarters. ....

  • is (dot) gd/bX78h2

    Rating: SELL

    TARGET: $0.00 (from $0.20)

    Will Debtors Allow PDL To Survive?

    DETAILS – Q3/14 Should Have Been Better

    3Q/14 production light due to lower grade: PDL reported Q3/14 production of 32,560 Koz of payable palladium, which was well below our estimate of 43,505 Koz entirely due to lower- grade material supplied from underground. Operating costs were $589/oz sold, or by our back calculation, ~$650/oz produced. In 3Q/14, ounces sold were 36,430 Koz, allowing for EPS loss of $0.05 and cash flow of $0.01, which were roughly in-line with our forecast. For the year, PDL are holding to annual guidance which means 4Q/14 underground production needs to be at record tonnage levels at grades of ~4.1 g/t.

    All about the balance sheet and level of debt: In 3Q/14 PDL made a special total interest and fee payment of $32.2 million, allowing the annual interest rate on a senior secure loan to fall from an accrued rate of 19% to a cash rate of 15%. At quarter-end this debt amount was $179.9 million out of $220.2 million total debt. Including retirement obligations and capital leases, total long-term debt is $247.2 million, of which $10.9 million is current. In addition there is a current facility (secured by receivables) of $25.1 million. At quarter-end working capital was $24.8 million, of which $11.8 million was cash. While at quarter-end PDL was in compliance with all loan covenants, we recognize the total amount of debt is too high and too expensive. Just to service debt interest seriously hampers PDL’s operating flexibility, requiring development expenditures to be seriously restricted. The future of PDL is entirely within debt holders’ control, and for PDL to remain a going concern, a refinancing/recapitalization needs to occur, perhaps by 1Q/15 at the latest.

    IMPACT – Negative. Poor Quarter Erodes Development Flexibility

    Poor quarter hurts: Light operating cash flow in 3Q/14 eroded PDL’s flexibility, negatively affecting development flexibility.

  • hockeyguy548 hockeyguy548 Nov 4, 2014 9:46 PM Flag

    According to BMO Capital Markets:

    is (dot) gd/IkCw22

    Platinum Group Metals


    Stock Rating: Outperform

    Target Price $1.90

    November 4, 2014

    C$150M in Senior Unsecured Notes Appears Sufficient to Fully Fund Completion of WBJV


    Platinum Group Metals (PTM) yesterday announced that it had terminated the previously agreed US$195M project finance agreement and, later on, that it was launching an offering of Senior Unsecured Notes. The offering comprises 150,000 units consisting of C$150M aggregate principle of Senior Unsecured Notes due 2021, and the right for Note holders to receive an aggregate of 55.2M common share purchase warrants. Each warrant will have a three-year maturity and will entitle the holder to acquire one common share at a strike price representing a 30% premium to the 15-day VWAP of PTM’s shares at the time of pricing the offering. The company plans to use the proceeds for the completion of construction at the WBJV and for working capital purposes.

    Impact & Analysis

    Positive. Assuming that the offering goes to plan, BMO Research views it as a superior and more attractive alternative to the previous project finance facility. On BMO Research’s estimates, the C$150M appears to be sufficient to complete construction of the WBJV whilst keeping a cash-on-hand headroom of C$70M at the end of 2015. Furthermore, subject to being executed, the warrants have the potential to provide a source of additional funds in the future. Although the interest rates for both the previous project finance facility and the Notes are not known, the Notes are unsecured and will likely be far less restrictive in terms of covenants, operational constraints, the need for a significant cost over-run facility, and commodity hedging.

    Valuation & Recommendation

    BMO Research maintains an Outperform (S) recommendation and C$1.90 target price for PTM.

  • Hey guys,

    Here are some recent Allied Nevada Gold Corporation analyst reports:

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  • hockeyguy548 hockeyguy548 Nov 3, 2014 2:07 PM Flag

    According to Dundee Capital Markets:

    is (dot) gd/hFgOWb

    Platinum Group Metals Ltd.

    November 3, 2014

    BUY, High Risk

    Dundee target: C$1.80

    $150MM Unsecured Notes To Replace Bank Debt

    Platinum Group Metals intends to offer $150MM in senior unsecured notes due 2021 replacing the US$195MM bank debt which was terminated this morning. The debt, along with PTM's ~$141MM in cash should be sufficient to fund the remaining capex at WBJV P1 of ~$240MM.

    Senior Debt Offers Alternative Funding for WBJV P1: PTM intends to offer $150MM in senior unsecured notes due 2021 and each unit holder will receive a common share with a strike of 30% to the VWAP. This represents an additional 55.2MM in potential dilution from the warrants. We would expect the interest rate to be at the mid-high end of other recent issues which have ranged from 7.5% to 12.5% (Figure 1). The note offering should be preferable to equity holders versus the previously contemplated debt package as it i) does not require a cost overrun facility which would be dilutive, ii) does not require security against the Waterberg asset which would limit optionality and iii) does not require hedging of any metals which would be unattractive at current low prices.

    Strong Financing Track Record & Supportive Shareholder Base: When the original debt agreement was rescinded in 2013 following the announcement of the Black Economic Empowerment's (BEE) decision not to continue funding its 26% portion, PTM raised $175MM to continue construction, bringing its total equity raised to $365MM. The company has a strong shareholder base (88% institutional) including Blackrock at 18.9%, Liberty at 16.9%, JP Morgan at 9% and Franklin Resources at 8.8%. Assuming a similar level of support, we expect the deal to close sometime this month.

  • According to BMO Capital Markets:

    Stock Rating: Outperform

    Target Price: $1.90

    PTM has announced that it has terminated the previously agreed US$195M project financing agreement for development of the WBJV project.

    Our View:

    - Mixed. Subject to PTM securing an alternative debt-funding solution in the very near future, this could present a positive catalyst for the stock. On the other hand, a protracted wait for an alternative will run the risk of making the market nervous that PTM might be forced into raising equity.

    - Although the company has not disclosed reasons for terminating the debt package, the company’s MD&A reports had indicated that there were a number of challenges to completing the facility after Wesizwe has failed to meet cash calls and was being diluted. Additionally, project finance facilities whilst appearing on the surface to be cheaper than other financing options look relatively more expensive when the cost over-run facility, hedging, collateral over company assets and limiting covenants are included.

    - PTM has indicated in its latest MD&A that it was “actively looking at private debt alternatives to the Project Loan Facility”, which suggests that the company may have been approached with offers from one or more third parties. BMO Research notes it is the company that terminated the agreement and not the lenders.

    - With C$161M cash at the end of May 2014, PTM appears to be fully funded through calendar 2014 with the remaining project funding not needed until early 2015. As such BMO does not expect any interruption to the development of WBJV project providing an agreement for further funding is secured soon.

    - If, in a worst case scenario, PTM needed to raise equity to cover its remaining funding requirements, BMO Research estimates that raising C$180M (all that BMO Research estimates is needed) at a 10% discount to the current share price would be 18% dilutive to the NPV/share when compared to the previous debt funding scenario.

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