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Kinder Morgan Energy Partners, Message Board

hofno2003 232 posts  |  Last Activity: 20 hours ago Member since: Jul 7, 2005
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  • Reply to

    Another pipe dream bead oriented indication

    by pearsby09 Feb 24, 2015 12:14 PM
    hofno2003 hofno2003 Feb 25, 2015 1:31 AM Flag

    Thanks for your reference to statins. You got it right to some extent. I like to discuss about statins and the root cause for sclerotic lesions of blood vessels. The scientific community already knows for sure that the root cause for sclerotic vascular plaques and thereof resulting adverse CV events IS NOT cholesterol. Therefore it is indeed as expected: statins are not suitable to manage acute inflammatory processes (such as sepsis) and have obviously to fail in such trials. To keep it clear: statins are suitable and proven to reduce CV risk by reducing the amount of cholesterol (LDL) and this is due to the bystander role of cholesterol once an inflammatory plaque has started to build inside the tissue structure of a blood vessel. The root cause for stable or instable vascular plaques are microlesions of the endothel (the inner lining of blood vessels) followed by activation of neutrophils and macrophage induced tissue repair (macrophages are the cells which remove cellular debris, neutrophils follow immediately as first line help, all together provide inflammatory signals such as TNF or IL-6 but provide also tissue growth factors). That’s the start of building finally a stenosis at a blood vessel and to have pronounced CV risk (instable vascular plaque rupture and migration of particles, MI, …). Cholesterol (LDL) has a good affinity to such structural micro inflammatory vascular plaques and helps therefore to build and increase such a plaque, but it is not the root cause.
    Please do not understand me wrong: If you have a prescription for statins do not stop to take your statin – statins are effective to prevent CV events!
    hofno. THE BEST IS YET TO COME.
    Long position in
    CTSO (cytokine filter for severe sepsis/inflammation management)
    SYN (Trimesta for cognitive improvement at multiple sclerosis, prevention of C.difficile infection)
    LPCN (oral testosterone, pre term birth pill)
    ATRS (self injectable testosterone, generic EpiPen)
    POZN GALE VICL

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Everything in the sea

    by proudamerican79th Feb 24, 2015 2:08 PM
    hofno2003 hofno2003 Feb 25, 2015 1:43 AM Flag

    I think your picture how the beads work is not complete. The outer surface of the beads is not much relevant to contribute to molecular (hydrophobic) interactions with suitable proteins. There is more contact area WITHIN this spheric particles (your reference is perfect right: 67% porosity), so the diameter of the beads doesn't matter as much, its more a matter of a spongiose (porous) material design and interactions inside the beads.
    hofno. THE BEST IS YET TO COME.
    Long position in
    CTSO (cytokine filter for severe sepsis/inflammation management)
    SYN (Trimesta for cognitive improvement at multiple sclerosis, prevention of C.difficile infection)
    LPCN (oral testosterone, pre term birth pill)
    ATRS (self injectable testosterone, generic EpiPen)
    POZN (PA=low cost combo pill Aspirin+PPI)
    VICL (therapeutic herpes genitalis/simplex vaccine)
    GALE (NeuVax)

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • hofno2003 hofno2003 Feb 25, 2015 1:53 AM Flag

    Hi oilup,
    to have sufficient financial flexibility is always a good matter and perhaps we will get some time ahead a minor dilution event, but perhaps a licencing deal can provide non dilutive financing. Nobody knows for sure. What we know for sure is that the company has a runway of cash to mid 2016. I personally think that we could soon see (when the safety data of phase III come in in june 2015) a higher share price - and - just for an example - if we get a share price of $10 by june then a minor dilution event would improve the companies fundamentals again and the shareholders prospects too.
    hofno. THE BEST IS YET TO COME.
    Long position in
    CTSO (cytokine filter for severe sepsis/inflammation management)
    SYN (Trimesta for cognitive improvement at multiple sclerosis, prevention of C.difficile infection)
    LPCN (oral testosterone, pre term birth pill)
    ATRS (self injectable testosterone, generic EpiPen)
    POZN (PA=low cost combo pill Aspirin+PPI)
    VICL (therapeutic herpes genitalis/simplex vaccine)
    GALE (NeuVax)

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • hofno2003 hofno2003 Feb 25, 2015 7:22 AM Flag

    I like your enthusiasm concerning your mentioned options for marketing PA.
    I don't believe that POZN issued and sold new shares from this shelf registration, nor will it sell those shares in near future. Here is the POZN statement, dated Feb, 6th, concerning the shelf registration and its associated intentions:

    .............The Company believes it is prudent to have an effective shelf registration statement on file with the Commission to preserve flexibility to raise capital if needed. When the Shelf Registration Statement becomes effective, which is expected to occur during the first quarter of 2015, it will replace the Company's shelf registration on Form S-3 which expires on February 22, 2015. No shares have been sold under the expiring shelf registration statement or any other shelf registration statement previously filed by the Company. The Company has no current plans to sell any shares under this new Shelf Registration Statement...........

    hofno. THE BEST IS YET TO COME.
    Long position in
    CTSO (cytokine filter for severe sepsis/inflammation management)
    SYN (Trimesta for cognitive improvement at multiple sclerosis, prevention of C.difficile infection)
    LPCN (oral testosterone, pre term birth pill)
    ATRS (self injectable testosterone, generic EpiPen)
    POZN (PA=low cost combo pill Aspirin+PPI)
    VICL (therapeutic herpes genitalis/simplex vaccine)
    GALE (NeuVax)

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • How do I come up with a price tag of QuickShot self injectable T of $6+? This is quite easy. The testosterone replacement market is about $2.5 billion in US. As of today, the actual therapies are based on gels (transference risk), patches or injectable/implantable depot T (inconvenient, at docs office). Once our simple to use once weekly self injectable QuickShot testosterone is available I think it is reasonable to think that we could get a market share of more than 10%.

    Let's just assume we get 10% of $2.5 billion annual market: This would give $250 million revenue at ATRS. A faire price tag and market value for QuickShot and contribution to the company share price would be three times revenue = $250 million x 3 = $750 million. At 130 million shares outstanding this would give a price tag of about $6 per share. There is enough room for more upside - because 10% market share for a convenient once weekly self injectable testosterone is really not far stretched. We could also get 20% market share or more....and this doesn’t reflect any market outside US….
    hofno. THE BEST IS YET TO COME.
    Long position in
    CTSO (cytokine filter for severe sepsis/inflammation management)
    SYN (Trimesta for cognitive improvement at multiple sclerosis, prevention of C.difficile infection)
    LPCN (oral testosterone, pre term birth pill)
    ATRS (self injectable testosterone, generic EpiPen/Teva)
    POZN (PA=low cost combo pill Aspirin+PPI)
    VICL (therapeutic herpes genitalis/simplex vaccine)
    GALE (NeuVax)

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • hofno2003 hofno2003 Feb 25, 2015 10:48 AM Flag

    yes, an interesting find. Nevertheless I am not sure what it means. The authors conclude that only the first 15μm participate in IL-6 adsorbance. But does this necessarily mean that this surface range is already saturated and the IL-6 adsorbence quality is subsequently impaired? Nobody knows. When you shrink the bead size you will get less room between the beads which is necessary to keep up the flow of macromolecules and cellular content of the blood - so you would have to counteract with a higher pressure or accept a lower volume flow. Higher pressure would be harmfull to the cellular content, lower blood flow would counteract the adsorbtion quality overall. Therefore I am not sure whether a change of design would bring a more efficient CytoSorb filter - because the tool has already a very good performance. I see no need for a change and a new approval process associated with such a change.
    hofno

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • hofno2003 hofno2003 Feb 25, 2015 11:26 AM Flag

    yes - you are spot on. I think the pre term birth pill has a good chance for clinical success and approval - because the active agent is well known and already approved and with a convenient oral instead of injectable route of administration it will capture the total market which is indeed big.
    hofno. THE BEST IS YET TO COME.
    Long position in
    CTSO (cytokine filter for severe sepsis/inflammation management)
    SYN (Trimesta for cognitive improvement at multiple sclerosis, prevention of C.difficile infection)
    LPCN (oral testosterone, pre term birth pill)
    ATRS (self injectable testosterone, generic EpiPen)
    POZN (PA=low cost combo pill Aspirin+PPI)
    VICL (therapeutic herpes genitalis/simplex vaccine)
    GALE (NeuVax)

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Compared to AEMD "Hemopurifier" ??

    by ynot966813 Feb 25, 2015 12:08 PM
    hofno2003 hofno2003 Feb 25, 2015 1:07 PM Flag

    It is always good to have a look on possible competition. But you don't need to worry about AEMD.
    There is no similarity of CytoSorb and AEMD’s lectin based blood purifier (called lectin affinity plasmapheresis filter). AEMD’s filter uses lectins (this is a class of proteins which have a high affinity to carbohydrates) to catch carbohydrate structures which could be part of a cellular membrane (bacteria) or carbohydrates of virus particles. The AEMD filter is designed as mesh which prevents “big” blood cells (exclusion by size) to enter while tiny bacteria or virus particles are allowed to enter and get in contact with the catching sticky “lectins” inside. This is a suitable method to catch carbohydrate structures of bacterial cell walls and glycosylated capsid structures (=carbohydrates bound on the virus capsid proteins) of viruses, but it is not suitable to catch cytokines (which are really tiniest structures when compared to a large virus particle or a far more large bacteria). AEMDs lectin affinity plasmapheresis (LAP) filter is no competition for CytoSorb because it definitively cannot catch small proteins like cytokines.

    If you are interested to read more about AEMD’s blood purifier technology please google for AEMD's patent called “Method for removal of viruses from blood by lectin affinity hemodialysis” EP 1624785 B1

    hofno. THE BEST IS YET TO COME.
    Long position in
    CTSO (cytokine filter for severe sepsis/inflammation management)
    SYN (Trimesta for cognitive improvement at multiple sclerosis, prevention of C.difficile infection)
    LPCN (oral testosterone, pre term birth pill)
    ATRS (self injectable testosterone, generic EpiPen)
    POZN (PA=low cost combo pill Aspirin+PPI)
    VICL (therapeutic herpes genitalis/simplex vaccine)
    GALE (NeuVax)

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Question for hofno2003 or anyone else.

    by andy55q Feb 25, 2015 1:09 PM
    hofno2003 hofno2003 Feb 25, 2015 1:23 PM Flag

    No - this is not the accepted scientific opinion and it is dead wrong. Sepsis patients dy by multi organ failure which is the result of organ impairement by dysfunctional blood supply (renal, hepatic, lung,...), blood vessel leakage (edema in the lung) and loss of arterial blood pressure due to changes (widening of the blood vessels smooth muscles). This dysfunctional blood supply is the result of a systemic inflammatory response - and the (some, the most important) signal molecules triggering this response are TNF and IL-6.
    But - your friend potentially catched up an interesting (known) side effect of cytokine depletion which is not surprising: without cytokines you can not trigger an appropriate immune reaction against intracellular viruses (you could call this also immune paralysis). But the life threatining condition at a severe sepsis patient with multi organ failure is not the viral or bacterial load - its the inflammatory induced impairment of organ blood supply. If you manage this problem you get a chance with an additional antibacterial or antiviral therapy to eliminate the virus/bacteria - but this is second at severe sepsis patients with multi organ failure.
    hofno. THE BEST IS YET TO COME.
    Long position in
    CTSO (cytokine filter for severe sepsis/inflammation management)
    SYN (Trimesta for cognitive improvement at multiple sclerosis, prevention of C.difficile infection)
    LPCN (oral testosterone, pre term birth pill)
    ATRS (self injectable testosterone, generic EpiPen)
    POZN (PA=low cost combo pill Aspirin+PPI)
    VICL (therapeutic herpes genitalis/simplex vaccine)
    GALE (NeuVax)

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • hofno2003 hofno2003 Feb 25, 2015 1:38 PM Flag

    I think it will be June, but perhaps you will be right!
    hofno

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Question for hofno2003 or anyone else.

    by andy55q Feb 25, 2015 1:09 PM
    hofno2003 hofno2003 Feb 25, 2015 1:57 PM Flag

    Yes, you are right. In our case reports with severe sepsis the IL-6 level was closely monitored. The highest value reported was (!) 70,000 picogram/mL blood. This was reduced to about 100 picogram after application of 3 CytoSorbs. IL-6 has a very short half live time - this means when the CytoSorb filter is removed we see a very fast stabilization at an - as you said it correct - equilibrium which corresponds to a less severe form of systemic inflammation and is not life threatening but appropriate for a normal (not excessive) immune response.
    hofno. THE BEST IS YET TO COME.
    Long position in
    CTSO (cytokine filter for severe sepsis/inflammation management)
    SYN (Trimesta for cognitive improvement at multiple sclerosis, prevention of C.difficile infection)
    LPCN (oral testosterone, pre term birth pill)
    ATRS (self injectable testosterone, generic EpiPen)
    POZN (PA=low cost combo pill Aspirin+PPI)
    VICL (therapeutic herpes genitalis/simplex vaccine)
    GALE (NeuVax)

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Compared to AEMD "Hemopurifier" ??

    by ynot966813 Feb 25, 2015 12:08 PM
    hofno2003 hofno2003 Feb 25, 2015 3:53 PM Flag

    This is copy and paste of an older reply to a similar question concerning my long positions, perhaps it answers some aspects of your question. I prefere diversification (5-10 long positions) and all my holdings have to show an (for me) outstanding reward:risk ratio. Such stocks are of course small caps, some thinly traded (until they get discovered) and very volatile. Sometimes I am wrong and mostly on key milestones/timelines and setbacks with FDA (CRLs, ...).

    Here the copy and paste part:
    ....This is a good question - but the answer depends on your risk affinity. More risk - perhaps more fun. What I want to say is that there are some early stage companies without support of an existing business: VICL, LPCN, SYN; all this three have blockbusters in the pipeline - but if their key pipeline candidate gets a reset then the share price also gets a major reset. CTSO, ATRS, POZN and GALE have either own first product revenue or licencing revenue and big future potential - good when it comes to support a base on its share price and to keep therefore the risk lower. I personally would take them all and equally - except CTSO and LPCN - this I would overweight compared to all others ..... JMHO - please do your own DD concerning the potential and risk. You are welcome.
    hofno

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Is a new filter on the horizon?

    by garydaemon Feb 25, 2015 7:47 PM
    hofno2003 hofno2003 Feb 26, 2015 2:52 AM Flag

    Yes, there are a lot of ideas around how to manage sepsis. Indeed, sepsis is a situation in which a complex network of different immune cells, tissue cells and molecular signals contribute to the aberrant immune response (SIRS, CRS). If you look on it from a more general perspective you will perhaps admit that the idea to deplete the activation signals (IL-6, TNF and other cytokines) will be better than to fish for the thereof activated immune cells (leukocytes, neutrophils, ...). Turning off the activation and immune response at the very beginning of the regulatory pathway is the best concept I think, catching the subsequently activated cells is for sure not as powerfull to prevent the progression. The authors of your referenced studies are nevertheless right - removal of such activated cells would also have a beneficial effect, but minor when compared to CytoSorb's performance by removing the early signals.
    hofno. THE BEST IS YET TO COME.
    Long position in
    CTSO (cytokine filter for severe sepsis/inflammation management)
    SYN (Trimesta for cognitive improvement at multiple sclerosis, prevention of C.difficile infection)
    LPCN (oral testosterone, pre term birth pill)
    ATRS (self injectable testosterone, generic EpiPen)
    POZN (PA=low cost combo pill Aspirin+PPI)
    VICL (therapeutic herpes genitalis/simplex vaccine)
    GALE (NeuVax)

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • hofno2003 hofno2003 Feb 26, 2015 3:27 AM Flag

    Very good find and very relevant for SYN. I think SYN is spot on with its project and this will be - once approved - a key element to prevent C.diff. infections in selected at risk patient populations in the hospital (elderly people, comorbidity, severe injury/surgery or trauma....) when IV b-lactam antibiotics are involved.
    hofno. THE BEST IS YET TO COME.
    Long position in
    CTSO (cytokine filter for severe sepsis/inflammation management)
    SYN (Trimesta for cognitive improvement at multiple sclerosis, prevention of C.difficile infection)
    LPCN (oral testosterone, pre term birth pill)
    ATRS (self injectable testosterone, generic EpiPen)
    POZN (PA=low cost combo pill Aspirin+PPI)
    VICL (therapeutic herpes genitalis/simplex vaccine)
    GALE (NeuVax)

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    40 ongoing trials

    by pearsby09 Feb 25, 2015 3:53 PM
    hofno2003 hofno2003 Feb 26, 2015 3:57 AM Flag

    You got it twisted. It's just the other way round. The patent holder (now unrelated to CTSO but related to Dow) did not upheld/maintain the patents because he favoured not to pay the yearly (increasing) patent fees.
    hofno

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Vical's Phase 1/2 trial of its therapeutic vaccine designed to reduce viral shedding and reduce genital lesion recurrences in herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) positive subjects is progressing according to plan. Enrollment of patients in all of the trial cohorts is now complete. The Company expects to release top-line data by the middle of 2015. The 156 subject randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial will evaluate safety, tolerability and efficacy in otherwise healthy HSV-2-infected patients aged 18 to 50 years at seven U.S. clinical sites.

    This vaccines has a $billion potential when approved. First efficacy data just 4 months ahead. Perfect preclinical data and data of animal models available.
    hofno. THE BEST IS YET TO COME.
    Long position in
    CTSO (cytokine filter for severe sepsis/inflammation management)
    SYN (Trimesta for cognitive improvement at multiple sclerosis, prevention of C.difficile infection)
    LPCN (oral testosterone, pre term birth pill)
    ATRS (self injectable testosterone, generic EpiPen)
    POZN (PA=low cost combo pill Aspirin+PPI)
    VICL (therapeutic herpes genitalis/simplex vaccine)
    GALE (NeuVax)

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Revenue of $4.82M (+53.5% Y/Y) beats by $2.03M.

    by spezma Feb 26, 2015 6:47 AM
    hofno2003 hofno2003 Feb 26, 2015 6:59 AM Flag

    Not just not bad. A very long cash runway, cost disciplined management, partnership with solid companies and a therapeutic vaccine with $billion market potential with efficacy data of a 150 patient study just 4 months ahead. Great - with our very depressed share price an explosive mixture for sure :-)
    hofno. THE BEST IS YET TO COME.
    Long position in
    CTSO (cytokine filter for severe sepsis/inflammation management)
    SYN (Trimesta for cognitive improvement at multiple sclerosis, prevention of C.difficile infection)
    LPCN (oral testosterone, pre term birth pill)
    ATRS (self injectable testosterone, generic EpiPen)
    POZN (PA=low cost combo pill Aspirin+PPI)
    VICL (therapeutic herpes genitalis/simplex vaccine)
    GALE (NeuVax)

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • I think the fair value of VICLs therapeutic herpes genitalis/simplex vaccine is about $17+. Why?
    To calculate such a price target for this product I used the following public facts: One in six Americans between the ages of 14 and 49 have genital herpes and thereof about 19 million people in the U.S. are infected with HSV-2, at a cost to the nation’s health care system of close to $16 billion a year (source: CDC). To calculate a fair share price (given a successful HSV2 vaccine) let us assume that just 5% of this HSV2 positive patients seek a curative treatment annually which could be achieved with VICL’s therapeutic HSV2 vaccine. With this 5% we end at 1,0 million patients/annually. The vaccination scheme uses 3 doses (source: FDA, trial identifier NCT02030301), let us simply take about $160/per dose = $500 per patient. With our 1 million patients we end up with $500 million revenue. A fair price for VICL should be at 3 x revenue = $1.5 billion market cap. With 90 million shares we end at a price target of $1.5 billion / 90 million shares = $17 per share.
    There is enough room for growth, this math is just for the US. A licensing deal for EU/ROW could easily double this target. Furthermore VICL has partnered antiviral projects (prevention of cytomegalovirus reactivation and transplant failure) for HSCT (bone marrow) and kidney transplants and these are phase III trials and could add some ice on the cake. Of course our share price will approach this target step by step – but our the next important milestone is the release of efficacy data four our HSV2 vaccination trial in June 2015 and this is just 4 months down the road.
    Overall an outstanding reward:risk ratio. The company is well financed, has a low cash burn rate. A failure with an earlier vaccination project for melanoma is totally unrelated to the actual antiviral HSV2 vaccination concept and caused a lot of misperception and a totally derailed PPS.
    hofno
    Long position in VICL CTSO SYN LPCN ATRS POZN GALE

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Vimovo sales out Tomorrow, Bye. Bye Shorties

    by annieg007 Feb 26, 2015 12:06 PM
    hofno2003 hofno2003 Feb 26, 2015 12:28 PM Flag

    Yes, we will get good numbers and I think they will adress and inform us how well they did in the first weeks of Q1. hofno

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    ATRS bull case

    by andre_y_mb Feb 26, 2015 1:06 PM
    hofno2003 hofno2003 Feb 26, 2015 1:11 PM Flag

    I second your bull case. There is enough room for a haircut in your math and the reward:risk-ratio is outstanding.
    hofno. THE BEST IS YET TO COME.
    Long position in
    CTSO (cytokine filter for severe sepsis/inflammation management)
    SYN (Trimesta for cognitive improvement at multiple sclerosis, prevention of C.difficile infection)
    LPCN (oral testosterone, pre term birth pill)
    ATRS (self injectable testosterone, generic EpiPen)
    POZN (PA=low cost combo pill Aspirin+PPI)
    VICL (therapeutic herpes genitalis/simplex vaccine)
    GALE (NeuVax)

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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