Recent

% | $
Quotes you view appear here for quick access.

Kinder Morgan Energy Partners Message Board

hofno2003 134 posts  |  Last Activity: 1 hour 34 minutes ago Member since: Jul 7, 2005
SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Highest Rated Expand all messages
  • hofno2003 hofno2003 Apr 21, 2016 12:32 PM Flag

    Our oral pill will add $90 per share. hofno

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • hofno2003 hofno2003 Apr 21, 2016 12:34 PM Flag

    Sorry - the poison pill isn't new and not from yesterday. hofno

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • hofno2003 hofno2003 Apr 21, 2016 1:59 PM Flag

    Thanks - have always been around. Exciting weeks down the road - and a lot of new ideas for investments.

    hofno. THE BEST IS YET TO COME.
    Long position in
    LPCN
    PTIE (best in class abuse deterrent oxycontin, PDUFA date Sept. 2016)
    CTRV (new first in class Herpes Zoster/shingles antiviral treatment, phase III data June 2016)
    CYTR (improved chemotherapeutic agent doxorubin, phase III survival data June 2016)
    EDT.TO (severe sepsis bacterial endotoxin filter, 28 d survival data 3Q/2016)
    GALE SYN ARLZ ATRS

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • hofno2003 hofno2003 Apr 21, 2016 3:43 PM Flag

    I think that there are no obvious obstacles preventing the approval concerning efficacy or safety of our drug. But to be fair - nothing is granted when you have to deal with the FDA. But I have betted my best horse and saddle on LPCN (but not my farm).

    hofno. THE BEST IS YET TO COME.
    Long position in
    LPCN
    PTIE (best in class abuse deterrent oxycontin, PDUFA date Sept. 2016)
    CTRV (new first in class Herpes Zoster/shingles antiviral treatment, phase III data June 2016)
    CYTR (improved chemotherapeutic agent doxorubin, phase III survival data June 2016)
    EDT.TO (severe sepsis bacterial endotoxin filter, 28 day survival data July/August/2016)
    GALE SYN ARLZ ATRS

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • hofno2003 hofno2003 Apr 21, 2016 4:09 PM Flag

    Of course you can not use whole sale bulk prices of a raw material to get a clue about the market price of a finished product. To apply a premium on the raw material bulk price is not appropriate. My argument is that Aldoxorubicin will be priced at a 50% premium to medical (not raw / bulk doxo) finished preparations of liposomal doxorubin for IV use.

    hofno. THE BEST IS YET TO COME.
    Long position in
    LPCN
    PTIE (best in class abuse deterrent oxycontin, PDUFA date Sept. 2016)
    CTRV (new first in class Herpes Zoster/shingles neuralgia treatment, phase III data June 2016)
    CYTR (improved chemotherapeutic agent doxorubin, phase III survival data June 2016)
    EDT.TO (severe sepsis bacterial endotoxin filter, 28 day survival data July/2016)
    GALE SYN ARLZ ATRS

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    What has Changed....

    by play_tow Apr 21, 2016 4:12 PM
    hofno2003 hofno2003 Apr 22, 2016 3:55 AM Flag

    Very reasonable arguments. Thanks.

    hofno. THE BEST IS YET TO COME.
    Long position in
    ARLZ
    LPCN (oral testosterone, PDUFA date June 2016);
    PTIE (best in class abuse deterrent oxycontin, PDUFA date Sept. 2016)
    CTRV (new first in class Herpes Zoster/shingles neuralgia treatment, phase III data June 2016)
    CYTR (improved chemotherapeutic agent doxorubin, phase III survival data June 2016)
    EDT.TO (severe sepsis bacterial endotoxin filter, 28 day survival data July/2016)
    GALE SYN ATRS

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Earnings Predictions?

    by bwgosfgiants Apr 21, 2016 5:47 PM
    hofno2003 hofno2003 Apr 22, 2016 8:37 AM Flag

    If you want to miss the major next transformative news event - June 2016 - publication of Aldoxorubicin survival data from phase III STS - then I would also give the same advice as a_cramer_contrarian, please wait and build a position at $10+ later on in July.

    hofno. THE BEST IS YET TO COME.
    Long position in
    LPCN
    PTIE (best in class abuse deterrent oxycontin, PDUFA date Sept. 2016)
    CTRV (new first in class Herpes Zoster/shingles neuralgia treatment, phase III data June 2016)
    CYTR (improved chemotherapeutic agent doxorubin, phase III survival data June 2016)
    EDT.TO (severe sepsis bacterial endotoxin filter, 28 day survival data July/2016)
    GALE SYN ARLZ ATRS

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • hofno2003 hofno2003 Apr 22, 2016 4:04 PM Flag

    Your assumptions about the timelines are not correct. The FV-100 NDA can be filed q4/2016 and a PDUFA date in late Q3/2017 is possible. Thats not 3-4 years away, not at all.
    hofno. THE BEST IS YET TO COME.
    Long position in
    LPCN
    PTIE (best in class abuse deterrent oxycontin, PDUFA date Sept. 2016)
    CTRV (new first in class Herpes Zoster/shingles neuralgia treatment, phase III data June 2016)
    CYTR (improved chemotherapeutic agent doxorubin, phase III survival data June 2016)
    EDT.TO (severe sepsis bacterial endotoxin filter, 28 day survival data July/2016)
    GALE SYN ARLZ ATRS

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • hofno2003 hofno2003 Apr 23, 2016 2:24 AM Flag

    Yes, that would be nice. If we consider that the FDA will pull older not abuse resistent formulations from the market and prevent entry for generics I would think that value of new, approved ADFs will increase heavily. To pull old formulations is for sure the intention of the FDA - given that enough ADFs are available on the market (meanwhile about 5, Remoxy will be the next).

    hofno. THE BEST IS YET TO COME.
    Long position in
    LPCN
    PTIE (best in class abuse deterrent oxycontin, PDUFA date Sept. 2016)
    CTRV (new first in class Herpes Zoster/shingles neuralgia treatment, phase III data June 2016)
    CYTR (improved chemotherapeutic agent doxorubicin, phase III survival data June 2016)
    EDT.TO (severe sepsis bacterial endotoxin filter, 28 day survival data July/2016)
    GALE SYN ARLZ ATRS

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Hofno, did you see this seeking alpha article?

    by hiwatt1959 Apr 22, 2016 8:43 PM
    hofno2003 hofno2003 Apr 23, 2016 2:35 AM Flag

    Hiwatt, yes I did. With all due respect - your comments are meanwhile obviously so much biased (in earlier times you had sound scientific based balanced view on a lot of things and I appreciate to have all pro's and con's kept visible) that I will not comment your comments, because it's a waste of time.
    hofno. THE BEST IS YET TO COME.
    Long position in
    LPCN
    PTIE (best in class abuse deterrent oxycontin, PDUFA date Sept. 2016)
    CTRV (new first in class Herpes Zoster/shingles neuralgia treatment, phase III data June 2016)
    CYTR (improved chemotherapeutic agent doxorubicin, phase III survival data June 2016)
    EDT.TO (severe sepsis bacterial endotoxin filter, 28 day survival data July/2016)
    GALE SYN ARLZ ATRS

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Phase 3 - Share Price Aftermath

    by celticsbball15 Apr 22, 2016 12:32 PM
    hofno2003 hofno2003 Apr 23, 2016 5:05 AM Flag

    Had a look at CERU and CTIX. I like what I see - both companies have indeed a very attractive and different concept which can be thought to improve the outcomes in many cancer models. Great. Added them to my short watch list for the long term investment ideas. Thanks.

    hofno. THE BEST IS YET TO COME.
    Long position in
    LPCN
    PTIE (best in class abuse deterrent oxycontin, PDUFA date Sept. 2016)
    CTRV (new first in class Herpes Zoster/shingles neuralgia treatment, phase III data June 2016)
    CYTR (improved chemotherapeutic agent doxorubicin, phase III survival data June 2016)
    EDT.TO (severe sepsis bacterial endotoxin filter, 28 day survival data July/2016)
    GALE SYN ARLZ ATRS

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Phase 3 - Share Price Aftermath

    by celticsbball15 Apr 22, 2016 12:32 PM
    hofno2003 hofno2003 Apr 23, 2016 2:17 PM Flag

    I had now the time to do some DD on TRIL's concept. Good idea to use an anti-CD47-Ab to block the "don't-eat-me" signal (CD47). It is obvious that this should work in vitro (and it works in vitro on much cancer cell lines - this is already proven) - but I doubt that it will work in vivo as well. Why? In vivo you have almost every cell expressing CD47 to some low level extent, while some tumor cells obviously overexpress this marker. Nevertheless this means that you have to apply a very huge load of the anti-CD47-Ab and the majority will bind on normal tissue and non tumor cells anywhere in the body. So I think there is only a very small fraction of this Ab available for targetting the tumor cells in vivo. For me this is a major obstacle in this concept - but perhaps my view is wrong.

    hofno. THE BEST IS YET TO COME.
    Long position in
    LPCN
    PTIE (best in class abuse deterrent oxycontin, PDUFA date Sept. 2016)
    CTRV (new first in class Herpes Zoster/shingles neuralgia treatment, phase III data June 2016)
    CYTR (improved chemotherapeutic agent doxorubicin, phase III survival data June 2016)
    EDT.TO (severe sepsis bacterial endotoxin filter, 28 day survival data July/2016)
    GALE SYN ARLZ ATRS

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • hofno2003 hofno2003 Apr 24, 2016 2:32 AM Flag

    Sorry - with due respect - you are dead wrong. Phase 1 and 2 have been successfully completed long ago with more than 350+ patients treated and good efficacy results and phase III top line results will come in mid 2016. Do your DD - this is all public available stuff. But perhaps you mix up the FV-100 PHN project with the Hep B antiviral project. My talk is about FV-100 PHN. I hope this can help you out.

    hofno. THE BEST IS YET TO COME.
    Long position in
    LPCN
    PTIE (best in class abuse deterrent oxycontin, PDUFA date Sept. 2016)
    CTRV (new first in class Herpes Zoster/shingles neuralgia treatment, phase III data June 2016)
    CYTR (improved chemotherapeutic agent doxorubicin, phase III survival data June 2016)
    EDT.TO (severe sepsis bacterial endotoxin filter, 28 day survival data July/2016)
    GALE SYN ARLZ ATRS

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • hofno2003 hofno2003 Apr 24, 2016 3:05 AM Flag

    EDT.TO EDTXF
    Yes, but the change in trial size was due to faulty assumptions concerning the initial trial target population
    which was not selectiv enough (too low mortality rate of enrolled patients) to prove efficacy. Therefore the Co (and FDA allowed) to limit enrollment to more severe sepsis cases and reduced the initial trial size to the remaing not enrolled 176 patients to prove efficacy with 28 day overall survival as endpoint. Thats perhaps a good move - although it is strange anyway because the co obviously had a poor designed trial started.
    I like CTSO (has the better scientific concept, it works on sepsis in general) but meanwhile I like Spectral too (because it has the first mover advantage and is 1-2 years ahead of CTSO, but its product will work only in sepsis with gram-negativ bacteria involvement and filtering endotoxin is not as powerfull than filtering the proinflammatory cytokines).

    hofno. THE BEST IS YET TO COME. Long position in
    LPCN (first oral testosterone, PDUFA date June 2016)
    PTIE (best in class abuse deterrent oxycontin, PDUFA date Sept. 2016)
    CTRV (new first in class Herpes Zoster/shingles neuralgia treatment, phase III data June 2016)
    CYTR (improved chemotherapeutic agent doxorubicin, phase III survival data June 2016)
    EDT.TO (severe sepsis bacterial endotoxin filter, 28 day survival data July/2016)
    GALE (NeuVax, breast cancer recurrence prevention, P3 interim analysis June 2016)
    ARLZ (first low cost combo pill Aspirin+PPI, PDUFA date Sept. 2016)
    ATRS (autoinjectable testosterone, final P3 safety data mid 2016)
    SYN (first oral drug for prevention of C.difficile infection, IBSC)

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • hofno2003 hofno2003 Apr 24, 2016 10:29 AM Flag

    I hope you are aware that FV-100 was statistically superior in phase II when compared to Valtrex and - thats the key - phase III included a FV-100 800 mg (BID) treatment arm (thats 2 x the dose used in phase II) which should once more improve the superiority against valtrex. I like it.

    hofno. THE BEST IS YET TO COME. Long position in
    LPCN (first oral testosterone, PDUFA date June 2016)
    PTIE (best in class abuse deterrent oxycontin, PDUFA date Sept. 2016)
    CTRV (new first in class Herpes Zoster/shingles neuralgia treatment, phase III data July/August 2016)
    CYTR (improved chemotherapeutic agent doxorubicin, phase III survival data June 2016)
    EDT.TO (severe sepsis bacterial endotoxin filter, 28 day survival data July/2016)
    GALE (NeuVax, breast cancer recurrence prevention, P3 interim analysis June 2016)
    ARLZ (first low cost combo pill Aspirin+PPI, PDUFA date Sept. 2016)
    ATRS (autoinjectable testosterone, final P3 safety data June 2016)
    SYN (first oral drug for prevention of C.difficile infection, IBSC)

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Long time watcher....all in now!!

    by jomar2298 Apr 25, 2016 11:54 PM
    hofno2003 hofno2003 Apr 26, 2016 12:11 AM Flag

    I think there will not be much dips. The co is under the radar and the accumulation is a silent one. This will change when we approach $4-$5 and volatility will increase again. Good luck.

    hofno. THE BEST IS YET TO COME. Long position in
    LPCN (first oral testosterone, PDUFA date June 2016)
    PTIE (best in class abuse deterrent oxycontin, PDUFA date Sept. 2016)
    CTRV (new first in class Herpes Zoster/shingles neuralgia treatment, phase III data August 2016)
    CYTR (improved chemotherapeutic agent doxorubicin, phase III survival data June 2016)
    EDT.TO (severe sepsis bacterial endotoxin filter, 28 day survival data July/2016)
    GALE (NeuVax, breast cancer recurrence prevention, P3 interim analysis June 2016)
    ARLZ (first low cost combo pill Aspirin+PPI, PDUFA date Sept. 2016)
    ATRS (autoinjectable testosterone, final P3 safety data June 2016)
    SYN (first oral drug for prevention of C.difficile infection, IBSC)

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • hofno2003 hofno2003 Apr 27, 2016 2:09 AM Flag

    My price target for CPXX was $18 and I have to admit that I didn't think that we will arrive there within weeks after good PIII results. Meanwhile I sold out CPXX and increased CYTR and CTRV as well as PTIE.
    hofno. THE BEST IS YET TO COME. Long position in
    LPCN (first oral testosterone, PDUFA date June 2016)
    PTIE (best in class abuse deterrent oxycontin, PDUFA date Sept. 2016)
    CTRV (new first in class Herpes Zoster/shingles neuralgia treatment, phase III data August 2016)
    CYTR (improved chemotherapeutic agent doxorubicin, phase III survival data June 2016)
    EDT.TO (severe sepsis bacterial endotoxin filter, 28 day survival data July/2016)
    GALE (NeuVax, breast cancer recurrence prevention, P3 interim analysis June 2016)
    ARLZ (first low cost combo pill Aspirin+PPI, PDUFA date Sept. 2016)
    ATRS (autoinjectable testosterone, final P3 safety data June 2016)
    SYN (first oral drug for prevention of C.difficile infection, IBSC)

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • In order to get a clue about a fair share price we can do a simple math using public facts and reasonable assumptions:
    - We know that there are about 25 million patients on daily Aspirin for CV risk prevention
    - Up to 30% are at risk for developing GI side effects from Aspirin or had already aspirin induced gastric ulcer lesions in their past
    - This subgroup of patients gets additional prescriptions for a PPI together with Aspirin
    - Overall this 30% subgroup is represented by 6.0-7.5 million patients (30% of 25 million) which could be eligible for Yosprala

    To keep it more simple let us do a math with 1 million patients (out of the 7.5 million eligible patient potential):
    - Yosprala will be priced at about $1-2 per day (thats really a very very prudent assumption)
    - 1 million patients therefore will bring 1 million x 365 days x $1-$2/day=$365-$730 million revenue per year.
    At 3 times revenue and 70 million shares outstanding this should contribute $15 - $30 to ARLZ share price.

    There is much room for further improvement - 1 million patients is a low ball estimate and we have furthermore the EU market which could easily double such a projection to $30 - $60 per share. The EU filing will follow soon and everything is already aligned.

    This target doesn't reflect the rest of the pipeline, the already commercialized products nor does it reflect the value of the royalty stream for Vimovo which will continue to increase in 2016.

    hofno. THE BEST IS YET TO COME. Long position in
    LPCN (first oral testosterone, PDUFA date June 2016)
    PTIE (best in class abuse deterrent oxycontin, PDUFA date Sept. 2016)
    CTRV (new first in class Herpes Zoster/shingles neuralgia treatment, phase III data August 2016)
    CYTR (improved chemotherapeutic agent doxorubicin, phase III survival data June 2016)
    EDT.TO (severe sepsis bacterial endotoxin filter, 28 day survival data July/2016)
    GALE ARLZ SYN

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • hofno2003 hofno2003 Apr 27, 2016 2:41 AM Flag

    At the last PR/CC the co confirmed results from Yosprala market research studies as follows:

    - The docs confirmed: 30% of patients for secondary prenvention will get prescribed Yosprala (indeed much more market share than I included in my small math)
    - the pricing strategy will be attractive to get a good market share (allows to conclude that we get perhaps more than $2 / pill / day and therefore more than I included in my math).

    Perhaps I should indeed set a higher share price target.

    hofno. THE BEST IS YET TO COME. Long position in
    LPCN (first oral testosterone, PDUFA date June 2016)
    PTIE (best in class abuse deterrent oxycontin, PDUFA date Sept. 2016)
    CTRV (new first in class Herpes Zoster/shingles neuralgia treatment, phase III data August 2016)
    CYTR (improved chemotherapeutic agent doxorubicin, phase III survival data June 2016)
    EDT.TO (severe sepsis bacterial endotoxin filter, 28 day survival data July/2016)
    GALE (NeuVax, breast cancer recurrence prevention, P3 interim analysis June 2016)
    ARLZ (first low cost combo pill Aspirin+PPI, PDUFA date Sept. 2016)
    ATRS (autoinjectable testosterone, final P3 safety data June 2016)
    SYN (first oral drug for prevention of C.difficile infection, IBSC)

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • hofno2003 hofno2003 Apr 27, 2016 11:32 AM Flag

    To get a full appreciation of our intrinsic company value (the upper end of my estimate) we will have to
    1) generate increasing Yosprala sales in US and
    2) the EMEA approval for Yosprala should be credited too.
    Thats my take. We will approach the target step by step, but I think we will see a double digit PPS within the next 6-9 months.

    hofno. THE BEST IS YET TO COME. Long position in
    LPCN (first oral testosterone, PDUFA date June 2016)
    PTIE (best in class abuse deterrent oxycontin, PDUFA date Sept. 2016)
    CTRV (new first in class Herpes Zoster/shingles neuralgia treatment, phase III data August 2016)
    CYTR (improved chemotherapeutic agent doxorubicin, phase III survival data June 2016)
    EDT.TO (severe sepsis bacterial endotoxin filter, 28 day survival data July/2016)
    GALE (NeuVax, breast cancer recurrence prevention, P3 interim analysis June 2016)
    ARLZ (first low cost combo pill Aspirin+PPI, PDUFA date Sept. 2016)
    ATRS (autoinjectable testosterone, final P3 safety data June 2016)
    SYN (first oral drug for prevention of C.difficile infection, IBSC)

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

KMP
0.00(0.00%)