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Kinder Morgan Energy Partners Message Board

hofno2003 154 posts  |  Last Activity: 12 hours ago Member since: Jul 7, 2005
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  • Reply to

    Subunit Vaccines do Not Work for HSV

    by jxkchicago Jun 23, 2015 6:46 AM
    hofno2003 hofno2003 Jun 23, 2015 6:56 AM Flag

    What a nonsense your statement. The viral load was reduced by bout -0,4 log10 - thats quite a lot and proves that your statement is wrong. However, a complete elimination of a retrovirus is impossible by vaccination when the virus is established - but a reduction of reactivation is the target and not an elimination. That works.
    hofno

  • Reply to

    Stock Price today

    by sirdrsardonicas Jun 23, 2015 10:04 AM
    hofno2003 hofno2003 Jun 23, 2015 10:37 AM Flag

    The trend when averaging the last 330 seconds within the last 47 minutes is again broken - strong upward momentum is induced again. :-)

  • Reply to

    Stock Price today

    by sirdrsardonicas Jun 23, 2015 10:04 AM
    hofno2003 hofno2003 Jun 23, 2015 10:57 AM Flag

    Thanks for your kind words. Will put my pipe away. The strong upward momentum was just increased within the last 180 seconds. You should pay attention! hofno

  • hofno2003 hofno2003 Jun 24, 2015 1:46 AM Flag

    Your pharmacological knowledge is obvisously zero when you compare milk to a proton pump inhibitor for lowering the acidic secretion in the stomach. A proton pump inhibitor irreversible silences the proton pumps of the cells of stomach epithelial lining (that means a lasting effect for days) - while milk just "consumes" some protons (milk proteins are denaturalized by binding of protons, these protons are the acidic molecules) and has no sustainable effect. I hope this supports your understanding and prevents wrong expensive conclusions.
    hofno

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • hofno2003 hofno2003 Jun 24, 2015 1:54 AM Flag

    Docs like compliance of patients. This is the reason why a doc always will prefer a combo pill when available compared to 2 single pills with the same content, because patients think 2 pills are more a burden than a treatment regimen with just 1 pill. This is the reason why Yosprale will get a significant market share within patients under treatment with Aspirin + PPI and a history of ulcus and gastric inflammation - which subsequently would make the treatment costly and furthermore promotes finally the development of stomach cancer and metaplastic tissue transformation when patients repeatedly get inflammatory lesions.
    hofno. I hope this supports your understanding, further questiones are welcomed.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • To avoid wrong conclusion I would like you to remember, that
    1) the enterprise value (net cash excluded) just now ist about $330 million, the combined market value of new Aralez will be in the range of $450-$500 million
    2) the company will be merged with Tribute and Medical Futures Incorporated to Aralez and therefore starts immediately with about $60 million revenue from sold drugs and licence fees, this means Aralez will have a lot of drugs and pipeline candidates beside Yosprala. Aralez will start net earnings positiv from day zero on. Thats great.
    3) the company provides a lot of cash to Aralez for futher acquisitons and Aralez will avoid taxation, because POZN and Medical Futures Inc. delivers furthermore a lot of loss carryforward to Aralez when merged. This means no taxation for some years to come and a very high value contribuation of Yosprala gross margins which could be 1:1 transfered to net earnings with this taxation context. This allows a higher revenue multiple/net earnings multiple when compared to other companies.
    4) If Yosprala is priced at the level of generic Omeprazole (or another PPI) and Aspirin - that is $1 a day - then we just need 1 million out of 20 million daily Aspirin patients to get $365 million revenue a year (365 x $1 a day x 1 million patients). I think the combo pill can be easily sold with a premium price - perhaps $2/pill and be still successfull. Therefore 3folding (or 6folding at $2 per pill) our actual share price when Yosprala is approved should be very likely .... the launch of Yosprala could start early 2016 - just 6 months away.
    5) The filing for approval in EU is prepared and could be done anyday now. Selling Yosprala and other TBUFF products in EU would again double a share price target and reasonable market cap.

    Therefore I would not bet on a significant share price regression, instead I expect a slow but continoused upward movement, although with a lot of volatility.

    hofno.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • hofno2003 hofno2003 Jun 24, 2015 9:49 AM Flag

    The adsorbtion profile of hemopurifier does not target the cytokine proteins which are responsible for the upregulation of the inflammatory immune response and finally sepsis. Hemopurifier targets bacterial toxins - which when removed - also improve the inflammatory response of a patient - but only when bacterias are the source .... while sepsis can be a result of sterile injury, trauma, cytolysis due to chemotherapy, pankreatitits, ..... all together not associated with pathogen induced toxins.
    hofno

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Market cap calculation

    by biotrader888 Jun 24, 2015 12:23 PM
    hofno2003 hofno2003 Jun 24, 2015 1:34 PM Flag

    thanks - while your math is formally right - it is just a speculation about a potential marketcap far ahead down the road. We neither know when/wether the conversion of debt will happen, nor do you know the share price at the time of the potential conversion, so the result of such a math is more than speculative and the market overall doesn't care in a situation when nearterm catalysts will dominate the newsflow. So I personally don't care to much about a fully diluted based market cap somewhere years ahead ....
    hofno

  • hofno2003 hofno2003 Jun 26, 2015 3:01 AM Flag

    The advantage is that it is a fix combination of a proton pump inhibitor (PPI) + Aspirin, therefore the prescribing docs believe that the patient compliance with this regimen will improve. Off course you could take Aspirin and the PPI separately to get the same effect - this would cost about $1/day (both pills). The convenience of a combo pill and the increased compliance is the key to some market share at the eligible patient population - these are patients taking Aspirin for secondary CV risk prevention (these patients had already a stroke or ischemic event or something else) and a history of Aspirin associated gastric ulcus (which ist the most prominent reason to stop your recommended Aspirin).

    So, the advantage is obvious, nevertheless we have to guess how much of a premium price when compared to Aspirin+PPI we can get. $2 a pill was just a guess - but also without a premium price to Aspirin+PPI we would get $365 million revenue/year with 1 million patients under treatment at $1/day (out of 20 million patients on daily Aspirin in US alone). And thats just for US. The EU filing is also prepared....
    hofno

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • hofno2003 hofno2003 Jun 26, 2015 3:15 AM Flag

    Its fine if this regimen works for you and you have no gastric problems. Would recommend to buy a cow. :-) In an earlier post I tried to shed some light on the aspects of milk and the aspects of proton pump inhibition on the gastric epithelium. But you prefered to ignore it - thats okay for me.
    But for other readers we should stay more serious. There is a big patient population on daily Aspirin for secondary CV risk prevention and with a history of gastric ulcus.
    Therefore these patients need to partially shut down the production of gastric acid by a proton pump inhibitor in order to keep the Aspirin induced small lesions on the gastric epithelium in check. Thats it, it is really as simple. And shutting down the production of gastric acid (=protons) can only by warranted by a proton pump inhibitor (like Omeprazol, ...,or a lot of similiar generics). This is not done by milk or alkalic agents - these only neutralize for a moment the gastric acid - but the neutralized acid will be subsequently compensated by a new produced one - within short time. Only proton pump inhibitors shut irreversibly down the production (partially).
    hofno

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    The market for Endroxal just keeps on expanding

    by hiwatt1959 Jun 25, 2015 6:41 PM
    hofno2003 hofno2003 Jun 26, 2015 1:49 PM Flag

    Not true. In this case I would like to support Hiwatt. The enrolling criteria for the RPRX study explicitely addressed obese male and the proposed labeling for Endroxal therefore will be limited to obese young men. But you can see also the case for LPCN and the other side of the coin: LPCNs drug will not be limited to obese men and will be used for the overall population of low T men.
    hofno

  • Reply to

    The market for Endroxal just keeps on expanding

    by hiwatt1959 Jun 25, 2015 6:41 PM
    hofno2003 hofno2003 Jun 26, 2015 3:21 PM Flag

    Inclusion criteria for the RPRX trial was a BMI (body mass index) greater than 25. The real patient BMI for their ZA-303 study was above 30, so the patient population was indeed the obese one - see below:

    Results for Study ZA-303
    The number of subjects enrolled into the study was 317, of which 220 (69%) completed the one year study. Of the enrolled subjects, 213 and 104 subjects were treated with Androxal® and placebo, respectively. The mean age of the subjects was 48.3 and 47.1 years for the Androxal® and placebo subjects, respectively. Mean baseline BMI was similar for the two groups, 32.3 and 30.5 for the Androxal® and placebo subjects, respectively.

    hofno

  • Reply to

    The market for Endroxal just keeps on expanding

    by hiwatt1959 Jun 25, 2015 6:41 PM
    hofno2003 hofno2003 Jun 26, 2015 4:06 PM Flag

    Max, yes, you are right. Endroxal - if approved - will be indicated for the treatment of low T in obese men (and only in obese patients) - and of course not for obesity itself.
    Because RPRX had a patient population of average BMI 30 I would tend to think that the FDA will limit Endroxal usage to this patient population - because RPRX did no trials with non obese and no trials with overweight men - although the trial inclusion criteria allowed a BMI greater 25. I have no clue why RPRX only got obese patients to participate - but perhaps Hiwatt can shed some light on this matter.
    hofno

  • hofno2003 hofno2003 Jun 27, 2015 6:03 AM Flag

    given the actual clinical results I would agree.
    hofno

  • Reply to

    The market for Endroxal just keeps on expanding

    by hiwatt1959 Jun 25, 2015 6:41 PM
    hofno2003 hofno2003 Jun 27, 2015 9:56 AM Flag

    Hiwatt, do you have any idea why RPRX only got obese men to participate in their ZA-303 phase III study? They allowed to participate patients with a BMI 25, but the average BMI of the active ZA-303 study arm was 32 (!!!!) - so the achieved results represent only the drug efficacy in the obese patient population. I think this could be a matter of concern - because its well known that some regulatory hormone feedback loops show a strong (exponential!!!! and not linear) dependancy on adipocyte fat content, as it is proven for leptin and also known to some extent for insulin (insulin resistence in type II diabetes).

    Would it be reasonable to conclude that Endroxal will only get approval for the phase III tested obese low T young men population? I think: Yes, because all other populations have not been tested! To be fair again: low T patients for sure are overrepresented in obese men, therefore this patient population is not a small one.
    Whats your opinion?

    hofno. THE BEST IS YET TO COME.
    Long position in
    CTSO (cytokine filter for severe sepsis/inflammation management)
    SYN (Trimesta for cognitive improvement at multiple sclerosis, prevention of C.difficile infection)
    LPCN (oral testosterone, pre term birth pill)
    ATRS (self injectable testosterone, generic EpiPen)
    POZN (Yosprala launch=low cost combo pill Aspirin+PPI)
    GALE (NeuVax)

  • Reply to

    The market for Endroxal just keeps on expanding

    by hiwatt1959 Jun 25, 2015 6:41 PM
    hofno2003 hofno2003 Jun 28, 2015 4:01 AM Flag

    Concerning the 83% efficacy of Cmax they obviously concluded, that this effect is not much relevant....and Cavg was indeed very fine and consistent for all patients after titration.

    From Co's statement:
    82.9% of subjects had serum T Cmax 2500 ng/dL (high serum T was sporadic, transient, and isolated, with no reported clinical adverse events).

    So I would conclude that observed rare high T level did not repeat again within same patient and/or disappeared after titration. I don't know whether the FDA will care about it - I think Cavg is the more important parameter for efficacy and safety.
    hofno

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Delayed trial results

    by juako79 Jun 28, 2015 1:57 PM
    hofno2003 hofno2003 Jun 28, 2015 2:01 PM Flag

    I bet you will get your SYN-004 results the next 2 days. hofno

  • hofno2003 hofno2003 Jun 29, 2015 2:14 AM Flag

    I would like to refrain to give an early judgement on the outcome of the Adcom meeting, because we have a lot of aspects which could provide reasons for a deepened discussion and new questions - and Adcom meetings and involved "experts" obviously have their own unpredictable behaviour. Everything is possible.

    But: I am sure that - until the outcome of the Adcom is clear - investors will prefere to stay on the sidelines - because the risk associated with this event is evident. And RPRX has no additional newsflow to provide the next months - alltogether not very supportive for the RPRX share price. But its also clear - if everything is fine at the Adcom - the share price should double or triple from the actual level within the subsquent weeks, final approval and early launch activities.

    hofno

  • Reply to

    Pozen checklist

    by insidethebeehive Jun 29, 2015 1:03 AM
    hofno2003 hofno2003 Jun 29, 2015 9:34 AM Flag

    However it will finally work out, but there is something more to say to your statements:
    1.) Company has only 12 employees with half receiving over a half million in compensation. CHECK.
    My take: The company will be merged with Tribute pharma and Future Medical Inc and therefore a lot of synergistic effect will take place when double positions are removed; CHECK
    2.) Stock price doubled in less than 1 month without revenue increase. CHECK
    My take: The company, when merged with Tribute and Future Medical just 6 months ahead will have about $60 million product and licence revenue and start net earnings positive. This is a double in revenue just 6 months ahead. CHECK.
    3.) Company's future is dependent upon a "drug" that has a questionable value ( aspirin and omeprazole ). CHECK
    My take: Arales (the merged Pozen, Tribute and Medical Future Inc.) will have a broad pipeline of marketed products as well as a filled pipeline of further products. CHECK
    4.) Aspirin and omeprazole are both available over-the-counter. CHECK
    My take: yes, but that doesn't matter. If POZN/Arales new combo pill is sold at generic level of Omeprazole/Aspirin it will be easy to get $300-400 million/year (thats just 5% of patients taking Aspirin as of today). Why should I take two pills when I can get a combo pill at same price? CHECK
    5.) "Supply" of shares will dramatically increase soon as employee options vest. CHECK
    My take: yes, maybe, but who cares. The new Arales provides enough potential to compensate this easily. CHECK
    6.) Time to take profits on stock run-up before execs do, CHECK!
    My take: yes, if you are a short term trader and don't care about a long term development strategy of a company then please go short - but cover before the runup again starts when the new Arales is finally formed and gets operative, just months ahead.
    hofno

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • There is only symptomatic treatment available until now - if we get 20% of IBS-C patients with SYNs drug this could easily mount to 1 million patients x $80 / month x 12 months = $ 1 billion revenue/year. Uups. Was there something wrong with this math? Yes, it will take some time to penetrate the market, but thats the potential in US alone. Furthermore the co will try to get a faster approval by using the 505(b)2 pathway - because the active agent of the drug is already approved for other indications.
    hofno

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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