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Willis Lease Finance Corp. Message Board

hokieincanecountry 36 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 22, 2015 6:49 AM Member since: Jul 21, 1999
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  • Reply to

    weird price action

    by bobcunning43 Apr 20, 2015 9:36 AM
    hokieincanecountry hokieincanecountry Apr 22, 2015 6:49 AM Flag

    bobc... What I believe happened is that someone placed a market order for some shares, and they got a fill in a number of chunks. Don't ever place a market order on a thinly-traded stock!!

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Are You Still There?

    by hokieincanecountry Jan 27, 2015 6:59 AM
    hokieincanecountry hokieincanecountry Apr 17, 2015 10:23 AM Flag

    bobc... Are you paying attention today? It looks as if we are getting close to some sort of conclusion. Latest trade is 100 shares at $1.45 with a bid of $1.12 and an ask of $1.75 per share. Let's hold on for the ride!!!

    Sentiment: Hold

  • hokieincanecountry by hokieincanecountry Apr 14, 2015 7:06 AM Flag

    The DEF14A last year was filed on April 10. So we should expect this filing perhaps this week. This stock is way undervalued!!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • hokieincanecountry by hokieincanecountry Apr 13, 2015 9:46 AM Flag

    We should get Q1 transactions reported this week; I guess on Thursday.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • hokieincanecountry hokieincanecountry Apr 2, 2015 11:06 AM Flag

    blue... You need to learn how class-action suits work.

    Looks as if it is helping the stock this morning.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • hokieincanecountry by hokieincanecountry Mar 27, 2015 2:39 PM Flag

    Showing some price strength today with decent volume. That may have been a bottom last Friday, March 20.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Interesting Trading Volume

    by frankwise23 Feb 27, 2015 11:58 AM
    hokieincanecountry hokieincanecountry Mar 25, 2015 10:56 AM Flag

    frank... Thanks for your thoughtful comments. I had not yet considered that the buyer might be the #1 son. However, there could be more than one large buyer and more than one large seller. I would doubt that either the Company or its ESOP trust would be buyers, as I think that they would be in a "blackout period" until the Company disclosed the information concerning the insurance settlement. If the big acquirer is the #1 son, I have mixed emotions as to whether this is a positive or a negative for the stock.

    I have added 5,000 shares to my holdings from Feb 4 through Mar 20 at $6.05 to $6.27 per share.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Interesting Trading Volume

    by frankwise23 Feb 27, 2015 11:58 AM
    hokieincanecountry hokieincanecountry Mar 21, 2015 8:17 AM Flag

    frank... This "high volume" trading pattern for SVT is not only interesting, it is quite remarkable, because it occurred during a time when the insurance settlement was being negotiated and final settlement with the insurance carrier was reached. I do no consider myself to be a conspiracy theorist, but I believe that the SEC should look at some of these trades contributing to the volume spikes. For examples: Feb 10, 2015: 35,000 shares; Feb 11, 2015: 63,500 shares; Feb 17, 2015: 37,700 shares; Feb 18, 2015: 180,600 shares; Feb 19, 2015: 44,700 shares; Feb 26, 2015: 67,200 shares; Feb 27, 2015: 96,300 shares; Mar 2, 2015: 63,300 shares

    Is access to non-public information a problem here; has someone been trading based on such?

    I have previously commented in another post (earlier today) about the curious price weakness near the close on Friday, March 20. I do not often put in a limit buy order and then get a complete fill on every share for 15 cents lower than my bid.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Price Drop Near Close

    by hokieincanecountry Mar 20, 2015 9:34 PM
    hokieincanecountry hokieincanecountry Mar 21, 2015 7:51 AM Flag

    Upon a reading of the 10-K filed yesterday, it states that the insurance recovery (in addition to the $4.5 million) included "partial attorney fees incurred by the Company in defense of the arbitration." The 10-K does not state exactly what amount these attorney fees are, but whatever they are will be included in the amount received from the insurance carrier and reported with the results for 2015 Q1.

    With this arbitration and insurance settlement behind the Company, I believe that the stock of SVT is now way undervalued. We shall see, but I believe that the stock will head up from the close of $6.05 on Friday. That trade was included in my buy (about seven separate transactions) late Friday totaling an additional 1,000 shares. Book value of the stock is in the area of $9.16 at December 31, 2014 but will be much higher than this at 2015 Q1 due to the recording of the final settlement of the arbitration and of the insurance claim receipts (net of accrued income taxes). I'm hoping that the Company has bought back some additional shares since receipt of the funds from the insurance carrier.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • hokieincanecountry by hokieincanecountry Mar 20, 2015 9:34 PM Flag

    The price dropped near the close today, and I was able to acquire an additional 1,000 shares at $6.05 per share (even though my bid was at $6.20). The 10-K was not released until after the market closed, so was there some selling based on an information leak? Who knows!

    The settlement with the insurance company over the arbitration award and related costs was $4.5 million pre-tax, and the Company reported that this will be recognized in the current quarter.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • hokieincanecountry by hokieincanecountry Mar 19, 2015 10:22 AM Flag

    Restaurant operators have begun to report some very good same store sales in recent months, and I expect that BDL should have similar gains versus the prior year for its fiscal Q2. As I posted about one year ago, because BDL reports on a 52 week year, similar to last year fiscal Q2 this year will pick up one additional day in late December (Dec 28) and drop one day in late March (Mar 29). I believe that the effect of this minor calendar change will again add to the liquor store revenues in particular, but also will benefit restaurant revenues to a modest degree.

    I'm expecting EPS of $0.46 for fiscal Q2 versus $0.38 for last year or an increase of 21%.

    I track 58 publicly-traded restaurant stocks, but I currently only own these four: BDL, RICK, LUB and NROM

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Recent Price Strength

    by hokieincanecountry Mar 16, 2015 9:41 AM
    hokieincanecountry hokieincanecountry Mar 17, 2015 8:05 AM Flag

    This is not that new, but there was a 13D filing on Feb 12, 2015 by Renaissance Technologies LLC reporting that it holds 135,100 shares or 5.70% of the outstanding shares. Renaissance is an institutional investor and fund manager. This filing was due within 45 calendar days following the calendar year in which the 5% triggering event occurred.

    The report indicates that this event occurred on August 13, 2014. So we now know that we have another 5+% holder in addition to AO Partners, Lion Fund II (Biglari) and Fidelity. Perhaps the recent price strength is due to more buying by one of these or by a new acquirer or perhaps by AIRT itself. In any case, if Renaissance acquired most of these shares (at least hitting the 5% level) on or before August 13, 2014, then it is sitting on a nice paper profit with this holding.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • hokieincanecountry by hokieincanecountry Mar 16, 2015 11:42 AM Flag

    WTI crude traded below $43 this morning. The lower crude prices should lead to a new decline in motor fuel costs and could help EPS for the current quarter and next quarter. Cushing OK is filling its tanks; now ocean-going tankers are being leased for storage. Should be good for TA. New 52 week high this morning at $15.75 per share.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • hokieincanecountry by hokieincanecountry Mar 16, 2015 9:41 AM Flag

    AIRT has been trading up recently, including more of the same this morning. No news that I have found!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    RGB Capital Letter

    by hokieincanecountry Feb 25, 2015 10:34 AM
    hokieincanecountry hokieincanecountry Mar 6, 2015 8:05 AM Flag

    sle... Yes, it does!!!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Short Interest Updated

    by hokieincanecountry Feb 20, 2015 8:45 AM
    hokieincanecountry hokieincanecountry Mar 2, 2015 8:59 AM Flag

    At Feb 13, the short position was reported as 4,730 shares, almost cut in half from the 9,220 shares reported at Jan 30. Shorts have covered like rats leaving a sinking ship. Take your losses and float off on a stick of wood.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    RGB Capital Letter

    by hokieincanecountry Feb 25, 2015 10:34 AM
    hokieincanecountry hokieincanecountry Mar 1, 2015 3:08 PM Flag

    sf... Do you understand that it sometimes takes some "help" for the market to adjust the PE?

    The time to sell and lease back real estate is when interest rates are real, real low, as in NOW.

    Sometimes, the market can not see hidden value. So RDG needs to help the market and management, of course after buying a sizable stake in TA shares. Activist investors do have an important role!!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    RGB Capital Letter

    by hokieincanecountry Feb 25, 2015 10:34 AM
    hokieincanecountry hokieincanecountry Mar 1, 2015 3:03 PM Flag

    Check that. It's RDG Capital, as in Russell D. Glass.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • hokieincanecountry by hokieincanecountry Feb 25, 2015 10:34 AM Flag

    Nice pop today based on the RGB Capital letter to the Board of Directors that gives three recommendations that can boost value of TA by around 100%.

    Nowhere in these recommendations do I see the idea that the fueling business should be established as a Master Limited Partnership. Based upon some recently completed deals in fuel distribution MLP's, this could boost the upside even more.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Short Interest Updated

    by hokieincanecountry Feb 20, 2015 8:45 AM
    hokieincanecountry hokieincanecountry Feb 24, 2015 2:09 PM Flag

    It appears that the shorts are getting squeezed again today. Last trade at $36.80 per share, up by $0.26 on 16,908 shares traded. Current bid at $35.87 and ask at $37.23 per share. It's time for all shorts to cover.

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