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AerCap Holdings N.V. Message Board

hokieincanecountry 24 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 29, 2015 9:28 AM Member since: Jul 21, 1999
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  • hokieincanecountry hokieincanecountry Aug 29, 2015 9:28 AM Flag

    It's fairly obvious to me that the fundamentals are not currently being applied to AER and its stock price. This is actually a great buying opportunity!!

    I believe that the problem is a technical one, and the passage of time will eventually resolve this problem (it may take until Q3 earnings are announced in November). When the secondary offering was priced about 10 days ago (at $47.60 per share), investors who subscribed to the offering were severely damaged by the bad timing (the deal closed on Aug 24 (you could not have picked a worse day)). A lot of these untimely investors are now selling and taking their losses. This extra supply to the market has prevented a snap back in price for AER, as many stocks, not similarly affected by this technical issue, have recovered on Wednesday through Friday of this past week (Aug 26 - 28).

    Additionally, the Company answered a question (at the Q2 CC) that it will not be buying back more shares this calendar year because it needs to use cash flow to improve the debt to equity ratio by year end (as it has "promised" to analysts and investors). Too bad!!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Q3 Results

    by hokieincanecountry Aug 12, 2015 8:09 AM
    hokieincanecountry hokieincanecountry Aug 22, 2015 7:07 AM Flag

    ssr... I thought about the issue regarding the earlier announcement of that law firm commencing an investigation. However, if this increased expense is due to that factor alone, that is a very large expense. I am shocked that the Company did not provide a single comment in the 10-Q about the major increase in corporate G & A expenses for Q3. Does the CFO understand "financial analysis?" Is this another example of failure to carry out the Company's fiduciary duty?

    I calculate that the $581K variance represents 23.7 cents per share. I used an income tax rate of 24.2% and 1,858,647 shares outstanding. On a marginal basis, that tax rate should probably be higher, because the "waiter tip income credit" (that is substantial for BDL) would not increase proportionately with the higher pre-tax income.

    As I posted earlier, operationally, it was a solid quarter.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    plane crash

    by blueskiesforme1 Aug 13, 2015 12:00 PM
    hokieincanecountry hokieincanecountry Aug 18, 2015 11:32 AM Flag

    That was a Cessna 208B Grand Caravan with a single engine (Pratt & Whitney PT6A). Engine failure equals emergency landing or in this case ditching at sea. Too bad that Tom Hanks wasn't on board to retrieve those packages and letters for later delivery. Perhaps the aircraft and its contents will still be salvaged.

    The PT6A is a very reliable engine. A version of this engine is the only aircraft engine that has won the Indianapolis 500 (with racing team owner Andy Granatelli and driver, Parnelli Jones in 1968). That engine (designated as the ST6B-62) was effectively retired by USAC when a reduced intake (in square inches) was imposed without the normal two year notice.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    SVT could be bought like MAG ($20 premium)

    by hhtiwawa Aug 13, 2015 10:01 AM
    hokieincanecountry hokieincanecountry Aug 17, 2015 3:31 PM Flag

    hht... and chi.. The problem with your conclusion is practical control. SVT is effectively controlled by the "family's shares" (including those held by the employee stock ownership plan).

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Q2 Earnings

    by hokieincanecountry Aug 13, 2015 6:40 AM
    hokieincanecountry hokieincanecountry Aug 13, 2015 9:58 AM Flag

    Momentum took hold. Bought more at the opening for under $6.90 per share.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • hokieincanecountry by hokieincanecountry Aug 13, 2015 6:40 AM Flag

    That's a great report!! It's now time for earnings momentum to move SVT. This stock is way undervalued!!!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • hokieincanecountry by hokieincanecountry Aug 12, 2015 8:09 AM Flag

    Q3 results were disappointing at the bottom line ($0.45 vs. $0.46 in the prior year quarter). Operationally, it was a solid quarter. The problem appears to be in "Corporate expenses, net of other revenue" which was $581K higher than in the prior year (higher by 147% at $977K). I combed through the 10-Q and found not a single comment about the reason for this variance; this item is also way above the run rate for the two prior quarters of $540.5K per quarter.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • hokieincanecountry by hokieincanecountry Aug 6, 2015 7:07 AM Flag

    I see that the most recent after market trade yesterday was at $20.55 per share. Probably just a bad trade?

    Sentiment: Buy

  • hokieincanecountry hokieincanecountry Aug 3, 2015 9:29 AM Flag

    Bought 1,000 shares in the pre-market this morning at $19.97 per share. This will have a current yield of about 14.5% if the dividend is maintained. It is interesting that management said (in the conference call) that they do not currently intend to change the dividend, as they look at pre-tax earnings as the key, since they pay almost no cash income taxes with their accelerated depreciation, etc.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • hokieincanecountry by hokieincanecountry Jul 28, 2015 9:52 AM Flag

    CAP should report after the market closes today. I believe that it might be tough to make or beat the consensus of $0.68 per share. CAP is now at a 52-wk low. TAL has also broken down. The China economy must be a major factor in the pessimistic outlook.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Rights Offering

    by blueskiesforme1 Jul 22, 2015 3:58 PM
    hokieincanecountry hokieincanecountry Jul 22, 2015 5:17 PM Flag

    blu... You mean the Rights Agreement. There is no rights offering.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    BH

    by blueskiesforme1 Jul 16, 2015 4:20 PM
    hokieincanecountry hokieincanecountry Jul 18, 2015 7:43 AM Flag

    net... I agree that the pop was due to the large contract with AAL. However, the PR said that this was the fourth operator in North America buying this deicer unit, but none of the other three has been disclosed. So, there could be other smaller orders yet to come, although the Global production capacity may be already loaded for several months. This must be a "very competitive" deicer unit, if AAL committed to their order for 78 units.

    Swenson does operate his investment management businesses for the profit of his investors, partners, and himself. However, I believe that his arrangement with AIRT is also substantially benefiting the Company's investors compared to the performance of the prior CEO. Compare Swenson's compensation package ($50K in annual salary with no benefits, stock options, incentive bonuses, etc.) to that of Walter Clark. You may say that Swenson has a part time job" at AIRT, but I would argue that Clark performed poorly as if it were a "part time job."

    Look at how Sardar Biglari manages BH for his personal benefit (check out the name license agreement for the Steak and Shake business). In the dictionary next to the word "greedy" there is a line drawing of SB.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Good Press?

    by hokieincanecountry Jul 13, 2015 7:50 AM
    hokieincanecountry hokieincanecountry Jul 14, 2015 6:13 AM Flag

    iq... Exactly! Besides skilled labor, just about everything will be less costly in Ireland (as compared to LA), including taxes, business services, office space, etc. There could be some increase in the Company's total headcount, as the business is growing.

    We should get Q2 transactions soon, perhaps one day this week.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • hokieincanecountry by hokieincanecountry Jul 13, 2015 9:46 AM Flag

    BDL should release its 10-Q around August 11. For the fiscal Q3, I am expecting EPS of about $0.56 vs. $0.46 last year, or an increase of about 22%.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • hokieincanecountry by hokieincanecountry Jul 13, 2015 7:50 AM Flag

    With great fanfare, AER announced delivery of its first A350 as well as the addition of 100 highly-paid jobs (by Ireland standards) in Dublin and Shannon.

    I wonder if these new jobs in Ireland are merely replacements for highly-paid jobs (by USA standards) of former ILFC people in the Los Angeles Basin.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • hokieincanecountry by hokieincanecountry Jul 10, 2015 10:49 AM Flag

    See Form 4. AIRT bought 1,006 shares on July 8 at under $2.60 per share.

    Dall gone!! This could be good news.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • hokieincanecountry by hokieincanecountry Jul 9, 2015 6:00 PM Flag

    The subject article demonstrates a sophomoric understanding of the aircraft leasing industry.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    nice contract

    by netprophecy2 Jun 30, 2015 9:32 PM
    hokieincanecountry hokieincanecountry Jul 8, 2015 4:00 PM Flag

    net... That American Airlines order was for 78 units. The local rag dug out this detail.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    New Direction

    by ksrosary Jul 2, 2015 4:21 PM
    hokieincanecountry hokieincanecountry Jul 6, 2015 6:27 AM Flag

    It certainly is a new direction!!

    I recall that the management most recently indicated that 2015 would produce around a 25% increase in revenues with only a modest increase in costs producing around an 80% increase is earnings; and there were indications that the substantial cash flow would be used to reduce debt and even consider share buy-backs.

    Now we see new debt (with an 8% interest rate and warrants issues) and added staff. Does this mean that growth will be much higher than previously indicated? No, revenues are now indicated at no more than as previously projected.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Interesting week

    by albi1198 Jul 1, 2015 10:59 AM
    hokieincanecountry hokieincanecountry Jul 1, 2015 6:00 PM Flag

    al... Unless you buy shares "for immediate delivery" then you had to buy today, because "normal trading" requires three business days for settlement and delivery--Thursday, July 2; Monday, July 6; and Tuesday, July 7. The die is cast!!!

    I don't expect Biglari to try to eliminate the "poison pill." at the August annual shareholders meeting.

    Great contract with American Airlines. There is a big need for de-icing. Last winter was very cold on the East Coast. Ain't Global Warming great?

    Do you realize that AIRT traded at a new 52-wk high of $28 today?

    Sentiment: Buy

AER
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