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CAI International Inc. Message Board

hokieincanecountry 49 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 22, 2014 9:33 AM Member since: Jul 21, 1999
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  • Reply to

    low .29-.60 spread at the moment,

    by bobcunning9 Jun 10, 2014 8:03 AM
    hokieincanecountry hokieincanecountry Aug 22, 2014 9:33 AM Flag

    bobc... Quite a ride since I was the high bidder at $0.03 per share.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Order Backlog

    by dbraem09 Aug 12, 2014 2:45 PM
    hokieincanecountry hokieincanecountry Aug 16, 2014 2:11 PM Flag

    guid... I also bought more on Friday below $11. I got 100 at $10.85 and 2,000 at $10.9912 near the close. Order for 900 at $10.85 expired.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Down we go .....

    by groovyguru Jul 7, 2014 8:07 PM
    hokieincanecountry hokieincanecountry Aug 14, 2014 11:09 AM Flag

    groov... Your $10 target is no where in sight!! High trade of $15.50 so far today. It's time for you to cover your shorts and even go long.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • hokieincanecountry by hokieincanecountry Aug 13, 2014 9:51 AM Flag

    If you update the P/E for BDL (now 10.68) based on the trailing twelve months earnings ($1.36) and yesterday's close ($14.52), BDL now has the lowest P/E ratio among the 52 restaurant stocks that I track. The second lowest is RICK with a P/E of 11.3 based on its close of $11.64 per share. These are the only two restaurant stocks that I own.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    My congratulations to AER management

    by airlease2000 Aug 12, 2014 8:25 AM
    hokieincanecountry hokieincanecountry Aug 13, 2014 9:22 AM Flag

    left... I also was buying AER in the pits as low as $2.51 on March 17, 2009. If Peter Wortel is so good as VP Investor Relations, all I want is some answers to my questions (or at the least an acknowledgement that my emails were received). If it were to take a big legal staff to give me some answers, that starts to tell me that they may feel there could be some potential liability to shareholders there (carrying out fiduciary duties, etc.). Just consider this: AER closed at $21.03 on November 29, 2013 which was just before the rumors of the deal started to leak out, and the price started its rise. If the deal had included a collar top at $25.00 per share, then AER would have paid around 43 million fewer shares. Just think about what AER would now be trading for with 43 million fewer shares outstanding. That's like 20% dilution. I have sent one more email to Wortel. Let's see if he answers.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    My congratulations to AER management

    by airlease2000 Aug 12, 2014 8:25 AM
    hokieincanecountry hokieincanecountry Aug 12, 2014 8:02 PM Flag

    air... I am not convinced that these "are the smartest guys on the block!" I have attempted several times to get Peter Wortel to answer a few questions about the deal. He hasn't answered, and he hasn't even acknowledged my emails. I think that they were not that smart, because they did not include a price collar on the deal. I asked Wortel: 1. Who was the AER financial advisor (investment banker) on the deal? 2.. Did the AER financial advisor recommend that a price collar be included? 3. If not, why not? 4. If so, did AER attempt to negotiate the inclusion of a price collar?

    I have to believe that AER should have been able to negotiate a price collar with the top at $25 or $30 and no high than $35. With a price collar, the existing shareholders of AER would not have been diluted to the extent that they have been.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    10-Q For Fiscal Q3 Is Filed

    by hokieincanecountry Aug 12, 2014 4:41 PM
    hokieincanecountry hokieincanecountry Aug 12, 2014 7:11 PM Flag

    Several very interesting items can be gleaned from this 10-Q.

    On May 15, 2014, the Board of Directors terminated the stock option plan. Apparently, there is no current or future perceived need to provide stock options as incentives to executive(s).

    During Q3 and as subsequent events in Q4, a number of mortgages on properties owned by BDL were repaid, prepaid in part and/or restructured. Christopher Nelms, a director, controls the lending entities, and Jeffrey D. Kastner, a director, and his wife are involved in at least one of these as investors. On some of these mortgages the interest rates were reduced from 10% to 5%. These changes may be intended to "improve" what would appear to be "too high" interest rates on these mortgages, given rates that are today likely available from arms-length, third-party lenders, and may be intended to eliminate (or reduce) real or perceived conflicts of interest.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • hokieincanecountry by hokieincanecountry Aug 12, 2014 4:41 PM Flag

    EPS of $0.46 vs. $0.35 last year for Q3. That's a greater percentage increase year-over-year than for Q2. Sweet!!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Q2 Earnings

    by hokieincanecountry Aug 12, 2014 7:19 AM
    hokieincanecountry hokieincanecountry Aug 12, 2014 8:58 AM Flag

    stino... I think that you now have it right. The former ILFC fleet lease revenue is only included for about half of the quarter. Plus, as we go through Q3, the consolidation costs should go down, and the benefits will go up. I particularly like the fact that management has quickly moved the ownership of the former ILFC aircraft into the Republic of Ireland where the income tax rates are much lower.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • hokieincanecountry by hokieincanecountry Aug 12, 2014 7:19 AM Flag

    Looks like a GRAND SLAM!! Adjusted EPS of $1.29 per share. Trading up in the pre-market. Earnings power of up to $5.00 per share is now becoming evident. Up, up and away!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Press Release on Earnings

    by tesiman Aug 7, 2014 7:46 PM
    hokieincanecountry hokieincanecountry Aug 9, 2014 2:38 PM Flag

    tesi... Here's hoping that the delayed order wasn't a gigantic order from Aeroflot.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Press Release on Earnings

    by tesiman Aug 7, 2014 7:46 PM
    hokieincanecountry hokieincanecountry Aug 9, 2014 8:15 AM Flag

    tesi... All is well. I have also been adding (22,000 shared added in 2014 at $11.50 to $12.85), but it appears that I am too early again. But I am patient also, and I have a history of buying too early. I bought AER on March 17, 2009 at $2.51 and had to wait almost five years for the big move. It would appear that there was some price support on Friday (not the expected plummet in price) and good trading volume. Perhaps we can look for a Form 4 this week.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Press Release on Earnings

    by tesiman Aug 7, 2014 7:46 PM
    hokieincanecountry hokieincanecountry Aug 8, 2014 8:08 AM Flag

    10-Q reveals some good things. Subsequent to the end of the quarter, the Company sold the two Short 330's and all spares for a profit, and it listed the Beech King Air for sale. These two actions represent a significant departure from the policies of the prior management.

    I am disappointed with the Q1 results!! I expected much better than last year's EPS. It appears that there are significant operating problems in all three divisions.

    Completion and delivery of newly-manufactured ground support equipment at Global seems to be a big problem. Inventory cannot keep increasing as it has in recent periods; they need to get stuff completed and delivered!! Is the cost for hiring and retaining air crews going up for AIRT? Reportedly, there are spot shortages of trained pilots in the industry, and the larger airlines pirate from regional airlines, cargo operators, etc. Will a new FedEx contract provide some gross margin relief? When will the new contract be signed? When will operating leverage return to the ground equipment services business. With the substantial growth in revenue for this business in Q1, I would have expected much higher earnings for this division. Nick Swenson, here are a few questions that shareholders probably want answered.

    Now that the "black-out period" is over, the real test will be whether Swenson and/or the Company begin acquiring more shares. This will represent the degree of confidence in future Company success.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Wow

    by dbraem09 Jul 31, 2014 1:49 PM
    hokieincanecountry hokieincanecountry Aug 3, 2014 9:53 AM Flag

    I expect that Swenson (and possibly the Company) will resume acquiring shares once Q1 earnings are released, and they come out of the blackout period.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Deal With Realogy

    by hokieincanecountry Jul 15, 2014 4:50 PM
    hokieincanecountry hokieincanecountry Jul 30, 2014 6:37 AM Flag

    ray... Breakthrough business developments live on "ifs." Hydraulic fracturing, Directional drilling, Gaming technology, Social media, Medical technology, Craft brewing, Fast casual dining, Intermodal shipping, Smart phones, Internet sales and distribution, etc.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • hokieincanecountry by hokieincanecountry Jul 28, 2014 11:42 AM Flag

    It appears that the reorganization of the finance function has now been completed, and a transition plan for John Parry has been negotiated. Q1 earnings should be out within the next two weeks. I expect at least 20 cents per share.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • hokieincanecountry hokieincanecountry Jul 23, 2014 4:37 PM Flag

    dbra... Sure, what is your contact info?

    Sentiment: Buy

  • hokieincanecountry hokieincanecountry Jul 22, 2014 5:11 PM Flag

    net... You have missed the point. It's not the 15,000 Parry options that were cancelled. It's this plus all of the other actions that the "new management" has been implementing since last Fall. I see these changes as "a dramatic change in the business." When you replace the "long term CEO," I think that this is dramatic. If you do not, then I understand that you have the right to a different opinion; this is what it takes to make a market.

    If you wait until you see the financial results of a definite "dramatic change in the business," then you may be too late to earn the big profits. I expect a major improvement in fiscal Q1 earnings, with both higher revenues in the two Global divisions and with lower SG&A expense. Just take one item. A year ago look at what Walter Clark was taking in salary, bonus and benefits (and probably performing as a part time employee). Now look at what the CEO is taking with no benefits.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Deal With Realogy

    by hokieincanecountry Jul 15, 2014 4:50 PM
    hokieincanecountry hokieincanecountry Jul 19, 2014 1:36 PM Flag

    From petty cash.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Deal With Realogy

    by hokieincanecountry Jul 15, 2014 4:50 PM
    hokieincanecountry hokieincanecountry Jul 19, 2014 1:34 PM Flag

    real... I was wrong for a long time, as I first starting to accumulate some shares in Feb 2006 at $9.28 per share--bad deal for a long, long time. I even used ZIPR for a real estate deal and got a rebate of 0.6% of my purchase price in 2010. I now have 65,000 taxable shares plus a little over 5,000 in my IRA. I got much more interested earlier this year based entirely upon my perceived relative value of the ZIPR software platform. I expected either Realogy or Berkshire Hathaway to eventually acquire ZIPR. I backed up the truck and bought 30,000 shares earlier this year at well below the deal price.

    I compute that if RLGY adds the ZIPR software platform to the approximately 290,000 brokers/sales agents in its owned offices and its franchised offices, it will deliver tremendous value on an annual basis. Follow my calculations: If an average broker/sales agent in the RLGY system today produces $200,000 in revenues and fees, and if the productivity of these people were increases 10% over the next few years (or $20,000 per agent based upon adoption of the ZIPR software platform) on an average of 300,000 brokers/sales agents (some growth assumed), then this would add $6 billion of additional gross margin for the "enterprise" (not all to RLGY, but to include all system franchisees as well). If 80% of these gross profits become EBITDA, and if you value this activity at six times EBITDA, then capital value increases by $28.8 billion ($6 billion x 0.8 x 6). RLGY spending $166 million for ZIPR will look like a great deal (for RLGY) if they can gain from the adoption of this superior software platform.

    Sentiment: Hold

CAP
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