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CAI International Inc. Message Board

hokieincanecountry 46 posts  |  Last Activity: 14 hours ago Member since: Jul 21, 1999
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  • Reply to

    Two days of losses

    by cholmondleigh Oct 28, 2014 11:32 AM
    hokieincanecountry hokieincanecountry 14 hours ago Flag

    OK chol... It does look like it was a buying opportunity. It would not surprise me if there was some market manipulation to get the price down to where the accumulator(s) wanted to add to their holdings!! Roaring back again today. Last trade at $20.85 near the close.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Two days of losses

    by cholmondleigh Oct 28, 2014 11:32 AM
    hokieincanecountry hokieincanecountry Oct 28, 2014 11:56 AM Flag

    chol... I have not seen any news that would account for the weakness. I have noted here before that it appeared to me that some accumulation was going on--perhaps a fund that invests in micro-caps (during this accumulation a lot of the trades have been at or near the asked prices). BDL certainly fills this bill. One or more accumulators may have now obtained their desired quantity of shares and is/are stepping back. BDL has the lowest P/E ratio of the 52 restaurant equities that I track. BDL should be able to exceed the 12 cents per share of earnings for last year's fiscal fourth quarter. We will not get a report until around Christmas. It has also cut its interest rates/costs. Some full service restaurant stocks have suffered due to flattish sales and higher food costs. This is a continuing pressure on full service restaurants such as BDL. Could be a buying opportunity!!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Question Number 5 For Peter Wortel

    by hokieincanecountry Sep 12, 2014 6:47 AM
    hokieincanecountry hokieincanecountry Oct 24, 2014 10:10 AM Flag

    The Share Purchase Agreement was disclosed with the Form 20-F dated and filed March 18, 2014 (see Exhibit 4.4). In conclusion, regarding the issue of whether the AER management includes "the smartest guys on the block," I believe that the Waha Capital management is somewhat smarter than the management of AER, because they included a price collar in their deal to offload a substantial amount of AER stock that they have held. The bottom of their price collar has already been penetrated, and the inclusion of a price collar in their deal has probably already saved them millions of dollars.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Question Number 4 For Peter Wortel

    by hokieincanecountry Sep 12, 2014 6:45 AM
    hokieincanecountry hokieincanecountry Oct 24, 2014 9:58 AM Flag

    Peter Wortel did not answer this question, and I did not really expect a direct answer. It is actually a rhetorical question. It is my opinion that the Company did not carry out its fiduciary duties to existing AER shareholders in negotiating the Share Purchase Agreement. I also believe that the financial advisors to AER and to the AER Board may also be liable to existing shareholders. I have not heard of any litigation regarding this issue, and Peter Wortel told me he was not aware of any such current litigation. I am also surprised that there has not even been an investigation raised on this issue by one or more legal firms that generally represent shareholders in cases involving such issues. When RLGY took over ZIPR during the summer of 2014, there were no less than nine or ten announcements by law firms of investigations underway regarding the fairness to existing shareholders in that deal. Not a single one here, even though existing shareholders may have been damaged from dilution and the loss of perhaps $1 to $2 billion of equity value from the lack of a price collar on the AER stock price.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Question Number 3 For Peter Wortel

    by hokieincanecountry Sep 12, 2014 6:26 AM
    hokieincanecountry hokieincanecountry Oct 24, 2014 9:32 AM Flag

    The financial advisor to AER was UBS. The sole financial advisor to the AER Board of Directors was Goldman Sachs. My question about whether the "financial advisor(s)" ever recommended a price collar in the deal was not answered. Peter Wortel claims that he does not know the answer; he will not find the answer and disclose it, because this information has not been publicly disclosed and will not be disclosed in the future. I believe that if the financial advisors never even suggested to include a price collar, there my be substantial liability (to existing shareholders) on their part.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Question Number 2 For Peter Wortel

    by hokieincanecountry Sep 12, 2014 6:24 AM
    hokieincanecountry hokieincanecountry Oct 24, 2014 9:26 AM Flag

    Regarding question 2, I never got a straight answer. Peter Wortel says he does not know. When asked if he would find out and give me the answer(s), he claimed that he would not, because this information has never been publicly disclosed and would not be in the future. In my personal opinion, this leads me to believe that the truth is "...no, the Company never did." I think there may be liability on the part of the Company to the existing shareholders at the time of the announcement of the deal.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Question Number 1 For Peter Wortel

    by hokieincanecountry Sep 12, 2014 6:22 AM
    hokieincanecountry hokieincanecountry Oct 24, 2014 9:21 AM Flag

    I finally made contact with Peter Wortel; I got some answers to my questions but not to the main issue (surrounding a price collar on AER stock in the ILFC deal with AIG). I will provide information regarding each of my questions as answered by the Company (via Wortel). For question 1, the provision(s) for adjusting the number of shares to be issued (per the Share Purchase Agreement) were only those "normal items" such as, if there were a stock dividend or a split to occur before closing, etc. The issue of a "price collar on AER stock" was never mentioned. See my additional replies regarding the other four questions (organized by the respective titles of the posts).

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Ordered to pay $5 million to old CEO?

    by kc_granite Oct 20, 2014 2:10 PM
    hokieincanecountry hokieincanecountry Oct 21, 2014 11:48 AM Flag

    So, why would the insurance carrier, where the total of the arbitration award plus interest and attorney fees is within the limits of the policy, deny that there is coverage?

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    No Recent Forms 4

    by hokieincanecountry Oct 7, 2014 10:45 AM
    hokieincanecountry hokieincanecountry Oct 7, 2014 2:25 PM Flag

    Yes, I see the Form 4 filed late this morning. Apparently, there is no restriction currently for Swenson to continue to add to holdings.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • hokieincanecountry by hokieincanecountry Oct 7, 2014 10:45 AM Flag

    Swenson has not filed a Form 4 since Oct. 2 when he reported acquiring 2,400 shares on Oct. 1. It could be that Swenson is now in a black out period, as he probably now has some insider knowledge of fiscal Q2 performance for AIRT. Most CEO's would receive some indication of estimated revenues and/or profitability by division by the second or third work day of the new quarter.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • hokieincanecountry by hokieincanecountry Oct 6, 2014 1:41 PM Flag

    It's interesting to note that just about a year ago, this stock was trading for less than $10.00 per share.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • The trailing twelve months (ttm) earnings have now been corrected to $1.36 (from $1.25). Even at the current valuation, the P/E ratio for BDL is low (at 14.8) compared to most restaurant stocks. Last year BDL earned only $0.12 in fiscal Q4; this should be easy to exceed this year.

    BDL could be a valuable holding for a large restaurant group (such as BLMN, EAT, BH, BJRI, etc.), as it is a proven concept, is profitable, is expandable, and is appealing to the customer. Restaurant groups are now looking to grow via acquisitions (of other chains). The BDL concept could be grown to over 800 units worldwide.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Question Number 1 For Peter Wortel

    by hokieincanecountry Sep 12, 2014 6:22 AM
    hokieincanecountry hokieincanecountry Sep 25, 2014 10:08 AM Flag

    Peter Wortel, I have included my five questions posted below (as using the AER "Contact Us" button apparently does not work). See my prior email reporting my numerous attempts in this regard. You can provide answers to my five detailed questions in this venue, as I am sure that many readers of this message board also want to hear your answers.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Swenson Price Paid On Friday, Sept 12

    by hokieincanecountry Sep 14, 2014 10:02 AM
    hokieincanecountry hokieincanecountry Sep 24, 2014 4:16 PM Flag

    Per the Form 4 filed today (Sep 24), Swenson paid as high as $13.22 for some shares acquired yesterday (Sep 23). He's now at 600,191 shares owned.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    New High At $17.00

    by hokieincanecountry Sep 8, 2014 3:42 PM
    hokieincanecountry hokieincanecountry Sep 22, 2014 4:15 PM Flag

    chol... Another new high of $18.91 at 3:54 PM near close today. Do you think that groovy... ever went long?

    This stock is still not that expensive (based on P/E ratios or Price-To-Book ratios) compared to other restaurant stocks; it may be that the value is finally being recognized. On the other hand, I noticed that for most of last week there was a big buy order (started as nearly 10,000 shares at a bid of $16.99); the buyer picked off shares a hundred at a time, but by Friday, the buyer raised the bid to 7,400 at $17.01 per share. So this is unusual. It could be a fund or a major holder adding; it could be a merger or deal coming. I added 2,000 at $17.00 per share.

    If my last name were Flanigan, I would have done a "buy out" when the stock was $12 to $14. BDL should easily exceed last year's earnings for fiscal Q4.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • hokieincanecountry by hokieincanecountry Sep 16, 2014 8:03 AM Flag

    The line of credit with Bank Of America was amended to increase the limit to $9 million, but it goes back down to the original limit of $7 million at the end of this year. Very strange!!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • hokieincanecountry by hokieincanecountry Sep 14, 2014 10:02 AM Flag

    Swenson filed another Form 4 on Friday, Sept 12 reporting 4,500 shares acquired (also on Sept 12) at $12.27 to $12.96 per share. It's good to see him pay up to $12.96 for the stock. I added another 2,000 shares on Sept 8 through Sept 11 at $11.53 to $12.04 per share.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • hokieincanecountry by hokieincanecountry Sep 12, 2014 6:47 AM Flag

    AER distributed an Information Memorandum to existing shareholders to explain the ILFC deal, but did not distribute a copy of the Share Purchase Agreement. Will AER send me a copy of the Share Purchase Agreement?

    Sentiment: Hold

  • hokieincanecountry by hokieincanecountry Sep 12, 2014 6:45 AM Flag

    Did AER carry out its fiduciary duties to existing AER shareholders in negotiating the Share Purchase Agreement with AIG? The closing price of AER on November 22, 2013 (before the rumors of a deal started to leak out, and the stock began its rise) was $20.71 per share. If a price collar top of $25 per share had been negotiated, I compute that AER would have issued only 52,359,800 shares (rather than the actual of 97,560,976) based on the closing price of $46.59 on May 14, 2014 (the date of closing). Note that with a $25 top-of-collar, the AER stock would have probably traded higher on the date of closing due to the market recognition of the substantially lower dilution to existing shareholders. The actual dilution to existing AER shareholders was probably within the range of 25% to 35% in the absence of a $25 top-of-collar.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • hokieincanecountry by hokieincanecountry Sep 12, 2014 6:26 AM Flag

    Who was the financial advisor (investment bank) for AER? Did the financial advisor ever recommend that a price collar be included in the deal?

    Sentiment: Hold

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