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CAI International Inc. Message Board

hokieincanecountry 52 posts  |  Last Activity: 13 hours ago Member since: Jul 21, 1999
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  • hokieincanecountry hokieincanecountry 13 hours ago Flag

    dbra... Sure, what is your contact info?

    Sentiment: Buy

  • hokieincanecountry hokieincanecountry Jul 22, 2014 5:11 PM Flag

    net... You have missed the point. It's not the 15,000 Parry options that were cancelled. It's this plus all of the other actions that the "new management" has been implementing since last Fall. I see these changes as "a dramatic change in the business." When you replace the "long term CEO," I think that this is dramatic. If you do not, then I understand that you have the right to a different opinion; this is what it takes to make a market.

    If you wait until you see the financial results of a definite "dramatic change in the business," then you may be too late to earn the big profits. I expect a major improvement in fiscal Q1 earnings, with both higher revenues in the two Global divisions and with lower SG&A expense. Just take one item. A year ago look at what Walter Clark was taking in salary, bonus and benefits (and probably performing as a part time employee). Now look at what the CEO is taking with no benefits.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Deal With Realogy

    by hokieincanecountry Jul 15, 2014 4:50 PM
    hokieincanecountry hokieincanecountry Jul 19, 2014 1:36 PM Flag

    From petty cash.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Deal With Realogy

    by hokieincanecountry Jul 15, 2014 4:50 PM
    hokieincanecountry hokieincanecountry Jul 19, 2014 1:34 PM Flag

    real... I was wrong for a long time, as I first starting to accumulate some shares in Feb 2006 at $9.28 per share--bad deal for a long, long time. I even used ZIPR for a real estate deal and got a rebate of 0.6% of my purchase price in 2010. I now have 65,000 taxable shares plus a little over 5,000 in my IRA. I got much more interested earlier this year based entirely upon my perceived relative value of the ZIPR software platform. I expected either Realogy or Berkshire Hathaway to eventually acquire ZIPR. I backed up the truck and bought 30,000 shares earlier this year at well below the deal price.

    I compute that if RLGY adds the ZIPR software platform to the approximately 290,000 brokers/sales agents in its owned offices and its franchised offices, it will deliver tremendous value on an annual basis. Follow my calculations: If an average broker/sales agent in the RLGY system today produces $200,000 in revenues and fees, and if the productivity of these people were increases 10% over the next few years (or $20,000 per agent based upon adoption of the ZIPR software platform) on an average of 300,000 brokers/sales agents (some growth assumed), then this would add $6 billion of additional gross margin for the "enterprise" (not all to RLGY, but to include all system franchisees as well). If 80% of these gross profits become EBITDA, and if you value this activity at six times EBITDA, then capital value increases by $28.8 billion ($6 billion x 0.8 x 6). RLGY spending $166 million for ZIPR will look like a great deal (for RLGY) if they can gain from the adoption of this superior software platform.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • hokieincanecountry by hokieincanecountry Jul 15, 2014 4:50 PM Flag

    Probably a good conclusion for ZIPR. Realogy will obtain great benefit from the software. ZIPR is really more of a software developer than a real estate brokerage if you look at the values of the two pieces of ZIPR.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • hokieincanecountry hokieincanecountry Jul 13, 2014 10:25 AM Flag

    I presume that Swenson and the Company are in a black-out period now (until earnings are announced for Q1 and during other insider knowledge about current developments). During such periods, I have observed that there tends to be lower trading volume and a slight market weakness--a good time to add to holdings.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • hokieincanecountry hokieincanecountry Jul 12, 2014 9:23 AM Flag

    The option previously held by Parry did not expire until Dec 15, 2016 (or earlier under certain conditions such as termination, etc.). So, I believe if you used Black-Scholes to value this option, then the Company got a good deal (if the Company repurchased the option, which I would bet that it did).

    Sentiment: Buy

  • John Parry sold his option (presumably back to the Company) on 15,000 shares (with a strike price of $9.30) for $3.90 per share. This leaves him with ownership of 1,502 shares. Who will take over as CFO is still not announced.

    Simpson goes to two days per week and then 1.5 days per week over the next two years. It would appear that these changes will reduce SG&A costs and streamline the management team, while letting Simpson transition into full retirement.

    tesi... What do you think about these developments?

    Sentiment: Buy

  • hokieincanecountry hokieincanecountry Jul 5, 2014 10:33 AM Flag

    oracle... If your supposition is correct, then this may also be a far better deal for Eric, as he can avoid/defer/(evade?) some income taxes on the 225K shares, since he intends to stay long enough to become vested in the 58K restricted share grant. The tax ramifications are obviously fairly complex, as the valuation of restricted shares that require an "earn-out" can be substantially discounted as of the date of grant.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • hokieincanecountry by hokieincanecountry Jun 29, 2014 4:36 PM Flag

    It seems to me that if the USA closed the Ex/Im Bank, then this would be good for all aircraft leasing companies including AER. If some airlines can't get subsidized financing from the USA Ex/Im, then they may have to lease an aircraft rather than own it and finance it.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    S&P upgrade and price change

    by agentabstract Jun 18, 2014 11:59 AM
    hokieincanecountry hokieincanecountry Jun 29, 2014 4:32 PM Flag

    Don't you wonder how Citigroup was so precise with that last 40 cents on the $27.40 previous target? Seems that they are pretty late to the party; their previous target was surpassed around mid-December 2013.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Parry Out

    by hokieincanecountry Jun 25, 2014 8:48 AM
    hokieincanecountry hokieincanecountry Jun 25, 2014 3:34 PM Flag

    tesi... From the language in the 8-K, it suggests to me that he resigned on his own and did not negotiate any separation agreement (or a departure date, beyond the standard 30 days), or this information would have been specifically mentioned in the SEC filing. Perhaps, more shares and in-the-money options may be acquired by AIRT from Parry.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • hokieincanecountry by hokieincanecountry Jun 25, 2014 8:48 AM Flag

    tesi... John Parry has resigned effective July 23. Gave a 30 day notice yesterday. What is your read?

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Move Up

    by hokieincanecountry Jun 20, 2014 8:03 AM
    hokieincanecountry hokieincanecountry Jun 23, 2014 12:50 PM Flag

    ...hash... Thanks, I did not see that.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    What about a Fedex buyout finally...

    by c280273b Jun 19, 2014 11:32 PM
    hokieincanecountry hokieincanecountry Jun 23, 2014 7:08 AM Flag

    Additionally, there is not a separate scale (at FedEx in the pilots contract) for pilots on single and twin-engine turboprops. Getting one would be very expensive and not worth the diversion of management attention at FedEx. To attempt it would be courting a big disaster. FedEx would end up with much higher costs. It's not just wages, but also benefits and work rules.

    The major air carriers have fought this problem for years, and this is the principal reason why there exists a group of regional carriers (look at what happened at Comair, American Eagle, some of the various regionals that historically supported USAir, etc.); they must be separate corporately from the major carriers to exist with labor law as it is now comprised in the USA.

    Obama has packed the NLRB; the Supreme Court will soon speak on non-recess appointments that Obama claims were recess appointments. The US Constitution must be preserved.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • hokieincanecountry by hokieincanecountry Jun 20, 2014 8:03 AM Flag

    This stock moves up from an $18.30 close on June 2 to yesterday's close of $24.33 (a +33% move up) and nowhere can you find any analyst comment or news story. Amazing!!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    China 50/50 Joint Venture

    by hokieincanecountry Jun 9, 2014 4:14 PM
    hokieincanecountry hokieincanecountry Jun 19, 2014 5:52 PM Flag

    mic... I believe that it traded at a premium to book shortly after the IPO in the 1990's.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    China 50/50 Joint Venture

    by hokieincanecountry Jun 9, 2014 4:14 PM
    hokieincanecountry hokieincanecountry Jun 18, 2014 1:39 PM Flag

    "One day soon" may be happening right before our eyes. Proper valuation of the WLFC equity is likely now in a correction mode!! Or is there some new information, which I have not yet seen?

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    China 50/50 Joint Venture

    by hokieincanecountry Jun 9, 2014 4:14 PM
    hokieincanecountry hokieincanecountry Jun 16, 2014 10:58 AM Flag

    valu... I believe that there could be a number of reasons why Charlie has been selling some shares below book:

    1. This stock has for many years only traded below book.
    2. On numerous occasions, Charlie has returned some shares to the Company to satisfy withholding requirements on shares where he has exercise options (as have most if not all other executives at WLFC).
    3. He may have sold some shares to diversify his investments. After all, most executives who have exercised stock options will sell some shares from time-to-time (to diversify or to spend for various purposes). These options represent a part of their incomes. Most readers here do not leave a few uncashed pay checks on their dining room tables.

    We can hope that one day soon, WLFC will trade at or above book value. The market has been wrong before on this and many other stocks.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • hokieincanecountry by hokieincanecountry Jun 16, 2014 9:51 AM Flag

    In the first 20 minutes today (June 16), it has already traded more than the average volume per day. Could be some buying interest with positive implications.

    Sentiment: Buy

CAP
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