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Flanigan's Enterprises Inc. Message Board

hokieincanecountry 32 posts  |  Last Activity: 7 hours ago Member since: Jul 21, 1999
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  • Reply to

    Swenson's track record - a summary

    by fred_jdc 8 hours ago
    hokieincanecountry hokieincanecountry 7 hours ago Flag

    fred... The "small stake" (3,345 shares) is today worth over $1.23 million (Seth Barkett sold his entire stake). I believe that Sardar's reaction was a pair of classic counter attacks. Was this Nick's intended result?

    "World thermonuclear war; tic tac toe; how about a nice game of chess?"

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Form 4 Filed

    by tesiman Dec 17, 2014 8:16 PM
    hokieincanecountry hokieincanecountry 15 hours ago Flag

    I received a phone call from a director on Monday who told me that I was the third largest holder, behind Swenson and Fidelity, but I should expect a Form 4 filing any day. Now I am the fourth largest holder. Isn't competition great!!! Should we now expect a proxy fight for control? Also, check out the "fight" developing at ISIG. Did anyone notice Swenson's DF AN14A filing on November 21 at BH? A third fight?

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    What happens when fuel prices go up?

    by walterbyrd Dec 9, 2014 2:43 PM
    hokieincanecountry hokieincanecountry Dec 16, 2014 12:26 PM Flag

    Today, the stock could be down on recognition that when Q4 earnings are reported, LUV will take a big charge on existing futures contracts that will need to be written down or written off. If it has call options on petroleum products, these will need to be written down to fair value. These charges will hit EPS in a big way. Airlines that did not hedge to the same degree will fare better than LUV with lower crude prices.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Buying AER today

    by gandy1313 Dec 2, 2014 8:39 AM
    hokieincanecountry hokieincanecountry Dec 13, 2014 1:46 PM Flag

    gan... How's the opportunity in the 38's?

    Sentiment: Buy

  • hokieincanecountry by hokieincanecountry Dec 11, 2014 8:19 AM Flag

    I have concluded that the recent move in BDL is the result of an activist investor accumulating the stock. You can read two of my prior posts (on Sep 28 and Dec 2) where I suggested that BDL would have significant value to another restaurant chain to generate future growth (and I specify some possible candidate firms among the 54 publicly-owned restaurant equities that I track).

    Sardar Biglari (and his firm, Biglari Holdings (BH)) has attempted for over three years to influence the Cracker Barrel (CBRL) board and management to generate increased shareholder value, but he has been prevented from "his ultimate success." The poison pill adopted by CBRL a couple of years ago has limited his holdings to 20% (he is the largest single shareholder at 19.8% as reported to the SEC as of June 30, 2014). His reported $241 million investment in the stock is now worth around $600 million. He may now be ready to "move on." I believe that BH may be the activist investor that is accumulating an investment in BDL.

    You will ask, Why do you believe this? Besides applying my own logic and analysis, this name was mentioned in a phone call yesterday received from a director of another company (where I hold a significant interest); this individual raised this name as a possibility. Do your own due diligence. Check out BH and the activities of its principal owner/manager (and supreme commander).

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Earnings

    by bdole12379 Oct 30, 2014 8:58 AM
    hokieincanecountry hokieincanecountry Dec 9, 2014 9:22 AM Flag

    Does Vixen mean "TLM?"

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Where's their earnings report?

    by barren_e_wuffet Dec 3, 2014 5:01 PM
    hokieincanecountry hokieincanecountry Dec 5, 2014 7:40 AM Flag

    The SEC allows more time to file the Form 10-K for the BDL fiscal year ended in late September, as it takes longer to produce audited financial statements, among other reasons including but not limited to completing all account reconciliations, etc. The report should be out around Christmas, a few days before or a few days after. This is normal timing based on the 17+ years that I have owned this stock,

    Sentiment: Buy

  • hokieincanecountry by hokieincanecountry Dec 2, 2014 9:24 AM Flag

    BDL traded as high as $37.2499 yesterday morning.

    The only news that I could find was a Dow Jones report that trading was resumed at 9:36 AM EST yesterday. No reason was given for the trading halt. Often when trading halts occur, the Company or the affected stock exchange will issue a press release to tell us the reason; there's no such report that I can find. I believe that the reason for the halt was an imbalance of orders at the opening of the AMEX. I was watching the pre-market and opening yesterday, and while there was trading in off-exchange markets, there was not a bid or ask reported for the AMEX until trading resumed on the AMEX at about 9:36 AM.

    So what is the reason for the run-up in the BDL price? Could it be pure speculation (animal spirfits?) as groovyguru claims? Or, could there be some basis for rumors of a takeover deal in development. I have reported here that there are restaurant chains that believe that the best growth opportunities will be gained from acquisitions of other chains and not so much from organic growth. The deal for BKW to take over THI was reported as being a way for BKW to move its tax domicile to Canada to reduce income taxes. The truth is that it was primarily a move to grow the company; income tax rates were a secondary issue.

    When BDL was around $15, groovyguru was claiming that it would go to $10 before it got to $20. How's his credibility these days?

    My earlier comment about 800 units, was not that BDL would grow the enterprise to this size. Rather, my comment was that an acquirer (such as BLMN, CBRL, BJRI, BH, Tilman Fertitta (aka Landrys Inc.), etc.) would acquire the business and grow it, with 800 or more units on a world-wide basis being possible.

    Another possibility is that an acquirer with its high-priced stock could do a stock deal or a deal for a combination of stock and cash. A tax-free stock deal would appeal to the Flanigan boys.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • hokieincanecountry hokieincanecountry Nov 28, 2014 1:53 PM Flag

    angy... Did you buy it, or are you thinking of buying this stock... since $29.70?

    Sentiment: Buy

  • hokieincanecountry by hokieincanecountry Nov 26, 2014 8:11 AM Flag

    New high yesterday at reasonably solid trading volume is impressive. Is this a recognition of true market value of this enterprise, or is there a takeover deal beginning to be implemented? I have seen no news to give an indication one way or another.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Where is the gap fill?

    by dbraem09 Nov 21, 2014 11:44 AM
    hokieincanecountry hokieincanecountry Nov 21, 2014 6:33 PM Flag

    There are exceptions to every rule. Please let me know when the fill occurs. In the meantime, let's let it run.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Insider selling

    by spikesparta Nov 7, 2014 11:07 AM
    hokieincanecountry hokieincanecountry Nov 13, 2014 8:44 AM Flag

    But, in my opinion, it depends upon whether new investors come in betting on the earnings (and cash flow) potential of AER. I believe that AER has earnings power of $5 to $6 per share. Order book and industry demand are now outstanding. When AER cancels aircraft part-outs in favor of selling aircraft for continued operations or releases them, then this says that demand for older aircraft is also quite firm. When the mini-correction occurred last month, I added to holdings in the $37 area. I'm betting on industry leading performance continuing at AER.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Insignia and AirT

    by psdonald Nov 10, 2014 3:22 PM
    hokieincanecountry hokieincanecountry Nov 13, 2014 7:06 AM Flag

    ps... You can use the term "hedge fund" or not; but what I like is that Nick Swenson finds opportunities that make money. Some people follow Carl Icahn around; I follow Nick. My initial holdings of AIRT pre-date the arrival of Swenson but I have added a lot (I also bought the last 800 share block traded just before the close last Thursday at $13.50); while the Company, in my opinion was undervalued, the prior management was timid and too comfortable and was not looking out for the shareholders. I first called on Mountain Air Cargo in 1982 to sell them PT6 engine overhaul services when they first acquired a couple of Beech 18's converted to turboprop power (and Walter Clark's father ran the Company). You should read Nick's letter to shareholders in the latest annual report--this perhaps lays out the case for investing excess capital (you will note that his agreement with ISIG also includes the establishment of a Capital Allocation Committee). I believe that the turnaround of AIRT is in progress, and that it now has earnings power of $2 plus per share. I believe the answer to your question is: AIRT had the "excess capital" and Groveland (and A. O. Partners did not).

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Insignia and AirT

    by psdonald Nov 10, 2014 3:22 PM
    hokieincanecountry hokieincanecountry Nov 12, 2014 6:45 AM Flag

    We see that this is your first ever post under this handle, and that you have been a member of this board (under this handle) since yesterday. What other handles have you used to post on Yahoo?

    Sentiment: Buy

  • hokieincanecountry by hokieincanecountry Nov 7, 2014 1:10 PM Flag

    New high with active volume of trading. No news out there that I have found.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • hokieincanecountry by hokieincanecountry Nov 6, 2014 8:54 AM Flag

    So, Peter Wortel is leaving "to pursue other interests." This usually means that someone was fired, when the company announces the replacement in the same press release. Hope this change represents an upgrade for AER with the new guy.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Crushed Estimates

    by westbud Nov 4, 2014 7:10 AM
    hokieincanecountry hokieincanecountry Nov 4, 2014 10:34 AM Flag

    Very nice beat versus estimates. This company is now earning at a run rate of almost $6 per share after eliminating non-recurring items. When will they achieve accounts receivable management on the order of operations pre-ILFC, when they measured accounts receivable in hours-of-sales and not days-of-sales?

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Two days of losses

    by cholmondleigh Oct 28, 2014 11:32 AM
    hokieincanecountry hokieincanecountry Oct 30, 2014 3:59 PM Flag

    OK chol... It does look like it was a buying opportunity. It would not surprise me if there was some market manipulation to get the price down to where the accumulator(s) wanted to add to their holdings!! Roaring back again today. Last trade at $20.85 near the close.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Two days of losses

    by cholmondleigh Oct 28, 2014 11:32 AM
    hokieincanecountry hokieincanecountry Oct 28, 2014 11:56 AM Flag

    chol... I have not seen any news that would account for the weakness. I have noted here before that it appeared to me that some accumulation was going on--perhaps a fund that invests in micro-caps (during this accumulation a lot of the trades have been at or near the asked prices). BDL certainly fills this bill. One or more accumulators may have now obtained their desired quantity of shares and is/are stepping back. BDL has the lowest P/E ratio of the 52 restaurant equities that I track. BDL should be able to exceed the 12 cents per share of earnings for last year's fiscal fourth quarter. We will not get a report until around Christmas. It has also cut its interest rates/costs. Some full service restaurant stocks have suffered due to flattish sales and higher food costs. This is a continuing pressure on full service restaurants such as BDL. Could be a buying opportunity!!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Question Number 5 For Peter Wortel

    by hokieincanecountry Sep 12, 2014 6:47 AM
    hokieincanecountry hokieincanecountry Oct 24, 2014 10:10 AM Flag

    The Share Purchase Agreement was disclosed with the Form 20-F dated and filed March 18, 2014 (see Exhibit 4.4). In conclusion, regarding the issue of whether the AER management includes "the smartest guys on the block," I believe that the Waha Capital management is somewhat smarter than the management of AER, because they included a price collar in their deal to offload a substantial amount of AER stock that they have held. The bottom of their price collar has already been penetrated, and the inclusion of a price collar in their deal has probably already saved them millions of dollars.

    Sentiment: Buy

BDL
31.23+1.490(+5.01%)Dec 18 4:01 PMEST

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