Your welcome and I still believe they could want it lower and I am thinking the 18.75 range especially if they feel news is going to be good or okay on 1127 and then we have the DDD trial coming up. Any good news out of those and then add a possible early term for Rindo and this is back to 40 pretty quickly. CLDX has always been in ranges and wide ranges that pattern has not changed what has is the volume and severity because of the growth of the stock. I would save some dry powder incase it falls out of the 20's it should not fall much the products are just to strong.
I listed these the other week because I thought this would happen essentially they have 2 dollar ranges after the 23.50 area you are looking at the 20.50 range and the real strong support is at 18.5 to 18.75 area then you have this big all range around the 18 to 23 area. Anything in this area and down to 18 are buying opportunities. I would always play a spread with CLDX of at least a 1.50 or so. Off the top of my head watch for these levels 23.50, 22.50, 20.50 and then down to the 18.75 area and back the truck up at 18.75 area.
Last rumor KOG turned around and bought a small company. This rumor is Paulson wanting more money for a bid already known about or is KOG up to something else again? Vodafone has been rumored for years.
RS had no idea of the patent value when he started, he even stated that. I wish we could hear from a product developer or something because a presentation on possible products could do some good. I honestly think if OCZ had anything worth getting right away this will be done in 90 days.
Essentially OCZ showed their books to STX about a year and half ago. STX figured out that OCZ had messed up books and they are in bed with Greenlight Capital. In a conversation it slipped that OCZ books looked suspicious so Greenlight Capital and croonies begin to increase short position. Rumors begin to swirl about buyouts and the whole time RP was trying to get out of the rock he knew he created and the hedge funs already knew OCZ was messed up so the numbers changed dramtically over a months period. Then RP was finally gave up and RS comes along. Since Micron and Intel and Toshiba have been supplying OCZ. Since Micron also knows that OCZ is hurting so it is cheaper for them to see OCZ go under or setlle for pennies so they put they the squeeze on the them as well eroding a communicatable relationship. Essentially Intel is not bias either way they prefer to play with the big partners and Toshibia likes a good product for good price so they remain neutral as well. So it leaves us with companies like Toshibia coming out of nowhere and makes you wonder where are the EMC, IBM and the other odd partners Mellanox, Nvidia and others to look under the cabinets as well. Essentially OCZ has gotten a green light by Nasdaq so it will be interesting to see what remains. Essentially RP not only destroyed what OCZ could have been but also has placed an enormous amount or retained earnings loss on shareholders, goodwill already written off and other life boats that OCZ could have used with any reasonable losses. I do believe OCZ took as much as possible but there delay in driving revenue and winning relationships once again could be the downfall. Feels like we are playing horse shoes and handgranades.
For OCZ to remain independent and only sell a part of the company is probaby not a good idea, unless he has some huge contracts or hundreds of millions of dollars of deals coming in. I do not think even deals in the 10 of milions is helpful with such small margins right now and the competition is only going to get worse and technology is pretty replicable in many facets so you have to look pretty different. We have two perfect examples FIO and STEC just in the last 6 months. I want to see OCZ survive but something is up and they would almost need a partial sell off and probably add another product or buyout of someone else with a reptuable product to pad the portfolio even more.
The patent stuff would have to be very viable and very well thought out.
I think RS and them will sell before it gets that bad as well. The two questions are what is in the deffered revenue and future orders. Margins cannot last because of the long term debt essentially RS has traded some short term for long term which is quite alright to free up cash flow even though we have borrowed the last two quarters to meet cash flow. If I knew revenues were deferred or coming I would play the same game RS has been playing if I know Long term debt and no revenue growth I would be a selling. I see at least it going for 500 million minimum. Dweep up above does not even know companies are bought on annual revenue so lets figure low of about 160 million and then this goes for at least 2 times revenue because of custmers and marketable products so that is about 320 million plus a minimum of 200 milion for patents and research.
You have to look at both long term and short term debt essentially we brought on alot of long term debt and traded down the short term debt which could be a good move if there is some deffered revenue or growth in cash flow. The big issues is watching that gross margins. We can survive if we can get gross margins and revenue to pick back up to that 70 to 80 million. I think RS and Finance have done a very good job with the balance sheet. MY still million dollar question which I have had for amost a year now is what is he doing to do drive revenue and market share that will determine the fate of the company. Cash flow actually remained positive but that was once again finance by borrowings that is a scary situation. Two questions we need to know essentially are revene and deferred revenue the rest looks like he is getting under control. We cannot survive on these 35 million dollar quarters though with that kind of debt we have no gross margins to make that. Overall though I see a glimer of hope, I think the market acts respectfully to these numbers if they are correct. Finally I see a buyout of about 550 to 700 million with at least a 2 times to revenue and market growth and also any kind of existing contract and patents worth another 200 hundred million plus.
The average sale in the tech sector is 1.8 to 2.2 of revenue, this thing will not sell for 150 million dollars. The controller and power supply are worth that alone. Revenue is around 200 million the minium is 360 to 500 million. This is Stec part 2 let hope they do not wait to get blungened to death with no revenue stream. They have soid contracts with Mellanox probably worth at least 100 million in data centers.
SEC investigate people not companies. I dare say they have not finished with RP and Knapp.
Turd I think RS has done a good job with margins but I said this from the first he was hired. The guy does not have the relationships in the industry or clout to pull the strings. He is very good at managing costs and structure but has never competed on the level that needs to be competed and gain market share from the EMC, IBM and others and some of that is not his fault but he is not at that mold. He is a good CEO but I do not think he is a turnaround artists he is a cost and problem fixer but not a market driving person. You may have to ask yourself now did he cut too much revenue out to quickly its such a small margin industry it is a hard question . The reason I say all of this is I do not think he had his pulse on the Revenue stream while trying to get out of this mess he had it on the functions and he did not pursuse the market relationships.
I do agree the 22 range is probably where it is heading then you start looking at 18s if it breaks 20's. I am looking at adding around 18 to 22 range. This is a low float stock and can be manipulated two or three dollars pretty easily.
Any bank is going to loan you money when you have assets that are valued at 10 to one for what your asking a loan for this like home equity. Personally unless those data centers drive revenue OCZ is a STEC part 2
It has always been STX plan to go private. Personally I think they get there ducks in a row and go private and this includes taking out a FIO and OCZ and making sure they can penetrate newer markets. STX has more to lose if the hard drives goes away quickly and then has to do an about face if they go private and prep themselves they will not become a Dell. Dell is now the protype company and both WDC and STX fit that mold and not what they want to see happen. WDC is probably better off but both could experience huge problems its just a matter of time.
Leaps make me feel more comfortable when purchased, you have to remember that even not one day into trading this thing since the 10k there is already hedge funds working to drive this stock price. I have studied this stock for almost two years and there are blocks of sales from like 9.600, 24,000, 40,000 they have used in succession to control this stock price. Essentially the same funds or money managers that hated OCZ a year and half ago June 2012 still dislike them today, there is someone that wants to ruin this company and OCZ refuses to break their hold of them in stock price and then their own faults have caused enormous control of the stock price. I like seeing the March strikes yesterday but those short terms I would be very careful. My advice is take the chance and buy out more next year and roll over or just take the loss, you are playing with fire short term. My options are almost all 2015.