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The Blackstone Group L.P. Message Board

holding38 77 posts  |  Last Activity: Jan 25, 2016 7:38 PM Member since: Jun 22, 2009
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  • holding38 holding38 Jan 25, 2016 7:38 PM Flag

    ACSF is managed by ACAS. ACAS has agreed to extend the discount it offers on its management contract, without which the profitability of ACSF would take a huge hit. Since ACAS will likely be sold in whole or in parts, the fate of that management contract is uncertain. Many leveraged companies in the financial sector have taken a hit and offer substantial yields. They all have risk, but ACSF is managed by a company that haas not been shareholder friendly, which is simply an added risk.

  • Reply to


    by beupandup Jan 22, 2016 9:43 AM
    holding38 holding38 Jan 24, 2016 6:47 PM Flag

    BX normally announces its distribution per unit (similar to dividend per share) at the same time it makes its earnings announcement for the quarter. Its next investor conference call is this Thursday morning, January 28. I assume then that the earnings will be announced after the market closes on the 27th or before it opens on the 28th. They will undoubtedly announce the ex date on the same day they announce the distribution. Good luck.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Panic sellers rule

    by billlewisiv Jan 14, 2016 10:01 AM
    holding38 holding38 Jan 14, 2016 6:25 PM Flag

    I bought more shares Monday at 24.73. Since then it has fluctuated up and down until the nice move today. To my mind, the stock is deeply oversold; a steal under 30 and an incredible steal under 25. One good omen today: as of yesterday there were 1,412 March 30 call options outstanding. Today, people bought a total of 55,842 options. When I checked earlier the price was 37 cents, but the close was 33 cents. Clearly some people with considerable fire power agree that the stock is deeply undervalued and poised for a sharp movement upward.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • holding38 holding38 Jan 12, 2016 1:37 PM Flag

    I do indeed--and bought additional shares yesterday at 24.73. It is true indeed that the shares are in a downtrend--and possible that it may continue a bit more. It's also true that the shares are an absolute steal at current prices. The bedrock for BX is the huge inflow of investment funds. These inflows are based on institutional investors concentrating their funds on substantial firms with the best investment records. BX is far and away the leader in its field with stunning results in real estate and strong results across the board. The growing 2% management fee will make future results somewhat less volatile than they have been in the past, but investors will still have to put up with fluctuating results. Even though the short term stock price trend is down, however, the long term profit trend is clearly strongly up. It's clearly just a matter of time until the discrepancy is resolved, and I believe it will be a relatively short time.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • holding38 holding38 Jan 11, 2016 5:17 PM Flag

    Stephen Schwarzman is the CEO of Blackstone. The vast majority of his income is from dividends (distributions). In 2014, he received a total of about $690 million; 570.5 million came from dividends (distributions) since he owns about 20% of the shares outstanding. He also received $84.8 million in carried interest; since he owns partnership units--unlike the the units or shares bought by the general public--he receives an additional share of the profits. He also received $33.5 million from investments he is allowed to make alongside those of the firm. His salary is $350,000 (that's right, thousand, not million). Aside from the salary, all of his income is directly tied to the success of the firm; in that sense it is identical to that of the general shareholders (unit-holders); indeed $570.5 million is based on a per-unit distribution that is identical to the distributions received by the general shareholders.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    no support the 52 week low will not hold

    by longtermholds Jan 6, 2016 9:51 AM
    holding38 holding38 Jan 6, 2016 3:22 PM Flag

    I don't think you can possibly be right; the_professional_trader has rated this stock as a hold!

  • Reply to

    BX Has a BEARISH Chart Formation !

    by the_professional_trader Dec 17, 2015 7:48 AM
    holding38 holding38 Dec 17, 2015 2:32 PM Flag

    A true professional trader can go either way and knows when to change a short into a strong buy. I added to my BX holding two days ago; a price below 30 for this stock is a steal. BX sells at a discount to its underlying value because the results and dividend fluctuate from quarter to quarter. The underlying value is determined by the company's track record, business plan and the net inflow of investment funds. Reflecting the company's record there has been a huge inflow over the last year and a half, and that is continuing. The 2% management fee BX receives will continue to grow strongly as the new funds are used for new acquisitions; this provides a solid earnings base. The profit-sharing that takes place as investments pass the hurdle rate will be uneven, but continue to show a strong upward trend. With the leading alternative money manager in the world selling at less than ten times forward earnings and a yield likely to average well over 6% over the coming years, this stock is a value investor's dream. It's time for the true professionals to reconsider!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • holding38 holding38 Dec 10, 2015 9:57 PM Flag

    Amateurish; clearly part of the short-seller attack.

  • Reply to

    Another article today from Seeking Alpha

    by arthaiss Dec 10, 2015 10:57 AM
    holding38 holding38 Dec 10, 2015 3:14 PM Flag

    Sorry, meant to say BDCs instead of mortgage REITs.

  • Reply to

    Another article today from Seeking Alpha

    by arthaiss Dec 10, 2015 10:57 AM
    holding38 holding38 Dec 10, 2015 3:01 PM Flag

    The timing is indeed suspicious. It is possible that the heavy selling in the last three days was spurred by leaks in the report added to the downward thrust from selling in the mortgage REIT group, and that the public issuing of it today is meant to provide cover for the short group to cover (no pun intended) without pushing up the price unduly.

    That said, the report does raise questions. It claims $140 million was paid to an unnamed individual and hidden from shareholders. It also claims that ACAS invested $5 million in new money (a small amount relative to the cost of the acquisition ) in an acquisition 2 years old, and then marked up its value more than tenfold. It claims auditing weaknesses that allowed this to take place without question.

    I hope this is just another scuzzy short-seller attack. But I hope that ACAS will put out rapidly a convincing refutation.

  • The Activist Spotlight
    American Capital (ticker: ACAS) Business: Global private equity and asset management
    Investor’s Avg Cost: $12.87/share Stock Market Value: $3.8 billion ($14.39/share)
    What’s Happening: Elliott Associates is opposing the announced spinoff of certain business-development company assets and is recommending operational, governance, and strategic changes.
    Key Numbers: 8.4%: Elliott’s stake of ACAS common.
    14.6 years: average tenure of current ACAS directors.
    71%: median price of ACAS stock to net assets, versus 115% for peers.
    $23: share price Elliott estimates if its recommendations are followed.
    Behind the Scenes: Elliott believes that the company’s spinoff plan is being presented to stockholders after years of: 1) ineffective management, 2) poor capital deployment, 3) directors lacking qualifications, 4) compensation that rewards failure, and 5) excessive overhead. In Elliott’s opinion, the spinoff plan only exacerbates the ill effects of these problems by further entrenching an ineffective management team, establishing a subscale investment platform with questionable ability to deliver stockholder returns, and squandering the company’s opportunity to optimize its existing platform. Elliott would like to see a strategic-review committee led by new directors and advised by qualified outside counsel and bankers to explore all of its options.
    If American Capital does not genuinely engage with Elliott in discussions about these issues, Elliott will have no choice but to nominate a full slate of directors to effect any change. Another potential option would be to sell the company or some of its assets to a private-equity firm, which could bring in its own team to
    manage the assets. —KENNETH SQUIRE

    I expected something of a spike in ACAS when this appeared and the contest for ACAS became more open. However, it appears that no discount is large enough to bring in buyers. I would ascribe this to market skepticism regarding management behavior.

  • holding38 holding38 Nov 20, 2015 6:19 PM Flag

    Just sent the email. Thank you.

  • holding38 holding38 Nov 17, 2015 6:11 PM Flag

    Thanks NMB. I would have given you five stars for this post and #5 that follows instead of one measly thumbs up if I could have done so. Your answer also highlights what is for me the only problematic part of the Elliot proposal: stopping the split. As a retiree I've been looking forward for some 500 years to the reintroduction of the dividend. Can a company that specializes in reorganizing other companies really have so much difficulty rationalizing itself?

  • Reply to

    Bought more shares today at $7.98 (1)

    by holding38 Nov 12, 2015 11:58 AM
    holding38 holding38 Nov 12, 2015 4:42 PM Flag

    The quality of corporate loans is indeed an issue, but it is not overwhelming. IBN has a strong balance sheet, corporate loans should improve as the economy picks up and consumer loans are doing well. I believe the loan issue is more-than-compensated-for by the current share price. According to Morgan Stanley:

    Asset quality was broadly in line: Bad loan formation (excluding slippages from restructured loans) was lower QoQ at Rs14bn (0.4% of loans, non- annualized ) vs. Rs33bn (1.0%) last quarter. The negative, however, was higher slippages from restructured loans (Rs9.3bn vs. Rs2.9bn). The bank also refinanced loans amounting Rs20bn this quarter vs Rs10bn last quarter. Impaired loans ratio (including SRs but excluding refinancing) was lower at 6.9% vs. 7.1% last quarter. Credit costs also moved lower to 93bps vs. 97bps last quarter.

  • In its Nov. 2 report, Morgan Stanley reiterated its overweight rating and raised its price target from 315 to 325 rupees ($10.21). The fiscal year ends in March. Here are the MS estimates:

    3/15 3/16e 3/17e 3/18e

    EPS (Rs) 19.3 20.2 23.2 27.7

    PE 16.3 13.7 12.0 10.0
    P/BV 2.3 1.8 1.6 1.4

    Since 1 ADR = 2 Indian shares and the recent (11/10) exchange rate is $1 = 63.67 rupees, the four years of earnings work out to $0.606, $0.6345, $0.7256, and $0.87. So the price is a little more than 9 times 2017 earnings (in the 3/18 year), just 2 years from now. With the private bank sector in India viewed favorably by the major Wall Street banks, a falling interest rate environment in India, and India in the process of passing China in economic growth rate, ICICI Bank, which is well managed and the largest private bank in India, is a compelling value.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • This is what Bloomberg had to say about Sept. quarter earnings:

    ICICI Bank Ltd.’s second-quarter profit rose 12 percent to a record as India’s largest private sector lender by assets extended more loans.
    Net income climbed to a record 30.3 billion rupees ($470 million) for the three months ended Sept. 30, from 27.1 billion rupees a year earlier, the Mumbai-based lender said in an exchange filing Friday. That was in line with the 30 billion-rupee mean of 30 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. The lender will also sell a stake in its insurance unit.
    Domestic retail loans at the lender grew by 25 percent, countering slower growth in corporate lending, a statement from the bank showed. A slower-than-expected economic revival and high borrowing costs are hindering Chief Executive Officer Chanda Kochhar’s efforts to boost the bank’s profit at a quicker pace.
    “Retail loans are driving credit growth at the bank,” Karthikeyan P, a Chennai-based banking analyst at Cholamandalam Securities Ltd., said by phone. “Curtailing bad debt on a secular basis will help the bank to grow profits at a faster pace.”
    ICICI’s gross nonperforming loans climbed nine basis points to 3.77 percent of total advances from June, the filing showed. While the ratio is the highest among the nation’s five largest private-sector banks, Kochhar said on a media call that bad-loan formation at the lender for the year to March 31 will be lower than the previous year.

  • Reply to

    Coming Friday 10% rally

    by fred_woodstone Oct 27, 2015 12:03 PM
    holding38 holding38 Oct 28, 2015 5:42 PM Flag

    HDFC Bank (HDB) recently reported weak earnings growth despite strong revenue growth. This has probably affected IBN which may have to cut its lending rates to remain competitive. Even so, HDB sells at much higher PE and price to book ratios. IBN will report earnings in the next few days and that will have a major impact on near-term price changes. Longer term, strong growth is clearly in store, and given the current low PE, current prices represent an attractive entry point.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Investors were burnt

    by as0nwecc Oct 28, 2015 9:39 AM
    holding38 holding38 Oct 28, 2015 5:26 PM Flag

    Book value is the core basis for mortgage reit earnings. As long as a secondary is sold at a price higher than book value, the earnings capacity of existing shareholders rises; that is, they benefit. As for the buyers of a secondary offering, the risk is like any other stock purchase, shares may decline in price. The mortgage reit group has been doing badly (look at AGNC and MTGE, for example). Since ETFs hold many reit shares, worsening investor sentiment affects all companies in the group, no matter how well they are doing. I am impressed by the fact that 3 top insiders all made huge purchases at the last secondary price.

    If more attractive mortgage securities become available and the share price remains higher than the book value, I would expect additional secondaries; they too will be accretive to EPS. Since BX is the world's largest real estate holder (to the best of my knowledge) and a savvy deal-maker, I would expect a long term of rising earnings and dividends for BXMT. Share prices will fluctuate with market sentiment, but the long term direction will be upward.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • holding38 by holding38 Oct 27, 2015 6:01 PM Flag

    9 analysts had Q3 earnings ranging from 60 to 71 cents; average estimate was 65 cents. Just came in at 72 cents. Nice.

    New dividend--already reported and paid for Q3--is 62 cents per quarter.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    what are the long term prospects of icici ?

    by chethanshetty Oct 2, 2015 4:37 PM
    holding38 holding38 Oct 8, 2015 7:17 PM Flag

    Thank you Blue for your serious discussion. It would be really helpful if this board could escape the domination by pumpers and bashers. Your contribution here is much appreciated.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

24.44-2.03(-7.67%)Feb 8 4:02 PMEST