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SIGA Technologies, AŞ Message Board

home_on_the_grange 35 posts  |  Last Activity: Jan 26, 2015 10:44 AM Member since: Apr 21, 2012
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  • Reply to

    ECB QE: #$%$60bn a month

    by alan_pater Jan 22, 2015 9:13 AM
    home_on_the_grange home_on_the_grange Jan 26, 2015 10:44 AM Flag

    Draghi has stated that the ECB portfolio has too much Greek debt already, so there are no current plans to buy more under QE. After Greece makes payment on the July and August maturities, Draghi said the ECB would consider Greek bond buybacks. So bottom line, no QE for Greek debt unless Tsipras cooperates.

  • home_on_the_grange home_on_the_grange Mar 13, 2013 8:17 AM Flag

    Another hatchet job although not as bad as the LA TImes in 2011. Go to the nytimes website and check the readers' comments with all the usual claptrap: Ron Perelman is evil, wasteful government spending, antivirals and vaccines are interchangeable, and my favorite, smallpox could never happen. I love that one because a few years ago no one could ever imagine a jet plane loaded with passengers being smashed into a skyscraper. As palatinate put it, Oy!

    Anyway, a big thanks to kageglantz for one of the few intelligent and accurate comments at the NYT website.

  • Reply to

    FDA & shelf life

    by bernarrdo Mar 5, 2013 7:53 AM
    home_on_the_grange home_on_the_grange Mar 5, 2013 10:10 AM Flag

    The dosage was settled as part of the labeling concurrence reported last quarter: 600mg/day for 14 days. SIGA received the benchmark payment in 4Q.
    FDA approval IS NOT required for the Strategic National Stockpile. The FDA does not have a set protocol for testing smallpox antivirals so the animal rule is being invoked. Multiple primates are being tested and CEO Rose said there would be no public disclosure of the results. Completion of FDA testing is not expected before delivery of the 2 million doses. FDA approvals are not part of the BARDA requirements.
    Hedges and Amln are right about the chemical stability: ST-246 is a tricyclo carboxamide with a stabilizing trifluoromethyl phenyl substituent. It's not going anywhere.

  • Reply to

    New Short Interest Numbers

    by home_on_the_grange Feb 28, 2013 1:18 PM
    home_on_the_grange home_on_the_grange Mar 1, 2013 10:34 AM Flag

    The short interest trend reversal coming into this year matches nicely with the Jet Capital and Blackrock purchases. I hadn't thought of the hedging strategy.

  • home_on_the_grange by home_on_the_grange Feb 28, 2013 1:18 PM Flag

    NASDAQ just released the SIGA short interest numbers for 2/15: 7.1 million shares or up about 1 million since 12/31. Great if you believe in an upcoming short squeeze, but obviously not everyone is drinking the Kool-Aid.

  • Reply to

    Read to the very end,,about SIGA per ZACKS

    by g_dargusch Feb 22, 2013 6:50 AM
    home_on_the_grange home_on_the_grange Feb 22, 2013 1:11 PM Flag

    The Zack's #1 rating came out on the morning of Feb 14.

  • home_on_the_grange by home_on_the_grange Feb 15, 2013 7:24 PM Flag

    45 opinions and orders have been posted online February 1 to 15. 6 of these cases were heard by the full bench (en banc). 5 of those 6 were reversed and remanded. SIGA appeal was heard by full bench. What are the odds of "reversed and remanded"?

  • Reply to

    SA Pumping PIP

    by nicehedges Jan 11, 2013 12:40 PM
    home_on_the_grange home_on_the_grange Jan 11, 2013 12:56 PM Flag

    Anybody here want to take investment advice from someone who doesn't know the difference between the Chancery Court of Delaware and the Delaware Supreme Court? You're entitled to your own opinion on SIGA/PIP but not your own set of facts.

  • Reply to

    Hidden in the GE Loan - A PIP Killer

    by geallis Jan 7, 2013 7:08 PM
    home_on_the_grange home_on_the_grange Jan 8, 2013 9:45 PM Flag

    Blood? These guys have ice in their veins. Butter wouldn't melt in their mouths. Aside from that, Rose did say in the CC that free cash was being "capitalized into inventory" but wouldn't provide further guidance. So at some point SIGA needs a credit revolver for SGA expenses, etc. just like a real company.

  • Reply to

    Hidden in the GE Loan - A PIP Killer

    by geallis Jan 7, 2013 7:08 PM
    home_on_the_grange home_on_the_grange Jan 8, 2013 9:25 PM Flag

    Two quick technical points. First, the SIGA patents covering the broad antivirals (such as ST-669) have no cyclononenes described whatsoever and comprise compounds that are chemically unrelated to ST-246. There have been no claims for ST-699 anti-smallpox effectiveness. Second, the early ST-246 patent screened a number of successful candidate drugs that were not cyclononenes but did have other common features. Parsons chose the category of "cyclononenes", I wouldn't have and it might leave wiggle room in potential future contracts, unlikely as that might be. In any case, an alternative to ST-246 wouldn't be ready under the current BARDA contract.

  • Reply to

    SIGA is becoming a new leader !

    by issac.meeks Jan 7, 2013 9:48 AM
    home_on_the_grange home_on_the_grange Jan 7, 2013 12:01 PM Flag

    Zacks lowered shares of SIGA Technologies (NASDAQ: SIGA) from a neutral rating to an underperform rating in a report released on Wednesday. Zacks currently has $2.50 target price on the stock.
    Shares of SIGA Technologies traded up 0.53% during mid-day trading on Wednesday, hitting $2.835. SIGA Technologies has a one year low of $2.20 and a one year high of $3.89. The stock’s 50-day moving average is currently $2.61. The company’s market cap is $146.4 million.
    Separately, analysts at RBC Capital raised their price target on shares of SIGA Technologies from $3.50 to $4.00 in a research note to investors on Friday, December 21st. They now have a sector perform rating on the stock.

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  • Reply to

    SIGA: KNOWNS

    by drlindacous Nov 16, 2012 1:15 PM
    home_on_the_grange home_on_the_grange Nov 16, 2012 5:19 PM Flag

    Wrong. 1. SIGA is appealing to the Delaware Supreme Court but as Dr Rose pointed out in the CC, PIP has filed a cross-appeal. So PIP was not happy with Parson's final ruling (my guess is the definition of "Net Profit"). Both will be heard in January. No date certain is known for either appeal decision. 2. Win, lose or tie, SIGA has a contract with BARDA with $435 remaining after the 4Q milestone payment and upon delivery of the rest of the 2 million doses. There is no contract split with PIP under any circumstances. 3. According to Parsons, the first $40 million of NET PROFIT goes to SIGA. The subsequent NET PROFIT (a fraction of the total contract, not $485 million, obviously) was to be split 50:50 and SIGA would have control over ST-246 production and delivery forever. The Supremes could uphold this, view the award as excessive or rule the royalty stream is an incorrect remedy. They could rule immediately or, more likely, send it back to Parsons with guidance (in which case another 6 months will pass). 4. NDA for 2015 is unrealistic as Rose pointed out in the CC because there is no NDA protocol for small pox antivirals and one needs to be developed de novo.

  • Reply to

    ST246 Milligrams

    by hosaquavas Oct 26, 2012 11:49 AM
    home_on_the_grange home_on_the_grange Oct 26, 2012 6:24 PM Flag

    The ST-246 produced by Albemarle for SIGA is for the Strategic National Stockpile. Prior FDA approval is not required for the SNS but will be completed subsequently.

  • home_on_the_grange by home_on_the_grange Oct 26, 2012 6:15 PM Flag

    Without some intervention, share price is headed below $1 which means (1) NYSE deficiency notice and more importantly (2) potential violation of credit revolver conditions. If the latter is suspended, cash runs out next year at PIP.

  • home_on_the_grange by home_on_the_grange Oct 22, 2012 6:13 PM Flag

    If you take the past year of biweekly Nasdaq Short Interest data on SIGA and plot the increase/decrease in short interest versus the EOD share price increase/decrease for those periods, the linear regression analysis shows that (1) about 30% of the share price change is related to changes in short interest and (2) an increase/decrease of 200k in short interest correlates to a $0.20 corresponding change in share price. Too much time on my hands, right?

  • Reply to

    mid october

    by mymygbye Oct 13, 2012 11:46 AM
    home_on_the_grange home_on_the_grange Oct 14, 2012 2:38 PM Flag

    Does your wife like it when you talk dirty to her like that? Isoindole benzamides, oooh. I know mine prefers it after the kids are in bed.

  • Reply to

    SIGA Shorts Report 8/15 - 9/14

    by home_on_the_grange Sep 27, 2012 12:17 PM
    home_on_the_grange home_on_the_grange Sep 27, 2012 2:11 PM Flag

    You're right. I stand corrected.

  • home_on_the_grange by home_on_the_grange Sep 27, 2012 12:17 PM Flag

    NASDAQ data for 8/15 to 9/14 shows shares held short have decreased by 5.5% (716K to 676K). Short shares net recall therefore averaged 18.7K per trading day or about 9.5% of average daily volume during that period. SIGA share price change was up 8.7% during that period (2.99 to 3.25). At that rate, there could be share price support at 3.50/share by mid-October. Buy now, beat the Christmas rush.

  • Reply to

    SIGA? Does Anyone Still Own This POS?

    by golongin2008 Sep 14, 2012 7:00 PM
    home_on_the_grange home_on_the_grange Sep 14, 2012 8:06 PM Flag

    I wanted to buy some SIGA but the man at the NASDAQ store said that short people had borrowed 7 million of them and they can't get them all back for at least 63 days at current daily volumes. I think he was just mean toward short people, like that singer Randy Newman.

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