Acquisition announced, raised revenue and EPS guidance for 2016 as a result and announced Q4 revenue at the high end of guidance and above consensus. Acquisition should accelerate growth in the SSO segment
INVESTMENT HIGHLIGHTS: We are upgrading MDXG to Strong Buy from Buy since we believe that concerns about the FDA homologous use guidance are overdone, we expect revenue growth to accelerate during 2016 as Y/Y revenue growth comps ease, we believe consensus 2016 estimates are conservative, and we think valuation is compelling with MDXG shares now trading at a discount to peers despite higher revenue growth.
yappy_dumb, Peaked at about $200M? MDXG will likely do $250M in 2016. I believe management has said they are comfortable with analyst estimates for 2016 and will give their official guidance in mid December. And, MDXG management has a history of under promising and over delivering. OSIR management, on the other and, choses not to be upfront with shareholders, cuts conference calls short and missed 3 of the 4 prior quarters consensus revenue, had they PROPERLY reported their revenues.
It was typical OSIR. Didn't really respond to the majority of the allegations set forth in Pearson's article. They said a bunch of nothing, just like they always say. Never transparent.
When is your employer OSIR going to come out with guidance? Ever? Oh wait, no transparency there.
Just checked usaspendingdotgov which is the official government website for sales to the US Government. I searched both MiMedx and Osiris Therapeutics then narrowed to fiscal 2016 (which includes October 2015 through today. For MDXG, shows $766,611. For OSIR it shows $22,460.
Maybe because trials have never been required for the product nitwit. Go crawl back into your hole. Or, back to your A/R cubicle. How are DSOs coming along?
We are downgrading OSIR to a Sell from a Hold. While we have been cautious on the name as
a result of elevated DSO’s and extended payment terms, indicating the potential for channel
stuffing, the belated release of the recent 10-Q gives us more concern, as it shows evidence
of aggressive accounting, particularly in regard to revenue recognition. Specifically, there are
3 restatements from distributor relationships—two in addition to the initial one called out on
their earnings conference call. In aggregate these changes only amount to about $3.9 million in
sales shifted between quarters, and $2.8 million in sales removed, which by default improves
DSOs, but as the chart below illustrates, newly re-stated sales implies the company has missed
3 out of the last 4 quarters. We do have real concerns over plateauing of Grafix revenues and
heavy discounting of Bio4 by SYK, which doesn’t bode well for the future of that partnership.
We are lowering our 2016 outlook to $110 million from $120 million to reflect these concerns,
as well as the rebasing of 2015 revenues. This represents only 13% revenue growth for FY16,
which makes it hard to justify its current 3-4x EV sales multiple on 2016. We think this growth
rate is closer to a more normalized 2-3x multiple or about $8, but have some concerns that
major write downs could drop the valuation below 1x, or below $5.
beachboound, you say no doubt they will have a good quarter as they know they have to show investors this was all just a blip. What was a blip? Misstating revenues you mean? Just because a company knows they have to show investors a good quarter doesn't mean they will have one....unless they misstate revenue again. If only a company could "will it's way" to a good quarter because they know they need it. Doesn't work that way. Darn it.
You are an idiot Ozark. The BLA is a mere formality. MDXG's products have already been proven to be effective and safe. That's why, you know, that thousands of doctors keep ordering it..because it works, MDXG is the clear leader in the space BECAUSE the product works. Enjoy your lawsuits and your non transparent management team and your, yet another new CFO.
MDXG (BUY, $15PT) - MiMedx scored a minor reimbursement victory at Anthem BCBS, who decided not to cover the Integra Dermal Regeneration Template (IDRT) for DFU treatment from Integra LifeSciences (IART:$67.78, HOLD, $55PT) The Osiris (OSIR:$10.38, NR) product for DFUs, Grafix, was also left out in the cold. The updated coverage decision (which already included the MiMedx product, EpiFix) is effective 1/1/2016
Even Northland, the former short, raised its price target to $11.50 this morning. Too low but at least they came to their senses after being on the losing end of their short and went long
couldn't make it at any of his other places so he started a blog I guess
Henry was VP - Strategic Planning and Communication at Curis from 2000 through 2001. Henry worked with H&QCM (now Tekla Capital Management) beginning in 1985 through 2000, where he focused on healthcare investments. He also concurrently founded LifeScience Economics; a research and analytics firm with offices in Boston, MA and Palo Alto, CA. Additional past work experiences include Thermo Scientific and Stone & Webster following 5 years at the FBI.
by First Analysis from $11 to $15 this morning. They are increasingly confident after management meetings and view the pullback as a particularly attractive buying opportunity
Prove your claim Ozark. We have NO way to know what Grafix sales are because your wonderous former CEO would never break it out. And, the company has said that investors can't rely on any of their financial information filed with the SEC so we really don't know what ANY numbers are until Ernst & Young finishes their audit probably sometime later in 2016.
Candy has lost in everything in life. Only thing he hasn't lost is his virginity because women find him repulsive.