you don't GET $3.15 in the future. You have a possibility, an unlikely possibility of getting it. Look at Goldman's projections and B of A lower than them
"ENDP expects to be able to launch Zecurity in early 2014 after training the sales force, preparing the supply chain. and building launch inventory...ENDP expects to be able to use its existing sales force to promote Zecurity. ENDP believes this deal could potentially be accretive within 12 months of closing even with modest sales of Zecurity given the limited launch costs. operational synergies and tax benefit from PATH's net operating losses. The Company has estimated that Zecurity could be a $100,m+ product over time; assuming the typical ramp-up for such a product implies sales of $15-$20 mn in 2014 and $30-40 mn in 2015
One of the most moronic posts in the history of stock message boards. Congrats
Let's see. Large shareholder tells the Board what needs to be done to unlock shareholder value in terms of a transaction. Board then puts said large shareholder on the Board. Other major shareholders assault management on conference calls and at shareholder meeting. is it really that hard to figure out what is on the way based on all this?
doc and ow, you are of course assuming that stemcellmagnet is not just throwing a rumor out. Is he someone who would be in the position to know about the jets and the alleged visit? Who would know this other than a MDXG employee or the air traffic controller at the airport?
By the way, it is "net sales" a term that does not appear to be defined in anything filed yet.
Note from Goldman. "ENDP expects to be able to launch Zecurity in early 2014 after training the sales force, preparing the supply chain. and building launch inventory...ENDP expects to be able to use its existing sales force to promote Zecurity. ENDP believes this deal could potentially be accretive within 12 months of closing even with modest sales of Zecurity given the limited launch costs. operational synergies and tax benefit from PATH's net operating losses. The Company has estimated that Zecurity could be a $100,m+ product over time; assuming the typical ramp-up for such a product implies sales of $15-$20 mn in 2014 and $30-40 mn in 2015.
That is why you will not be able to buy the stock at $2.85..there has to be a premium. The large shareholders agreed to it because the alternative was a bankruptcy filing.
I would not expect the stock to see $2.85 again. There will always be a premium to the cash purchase price as buyer will be willing to pay something beyond 2.85 for the "option"
You are correct ugadawg. Shareholders are not getting the CVR for nothing. AS of today, they are paying 41 cents per share per CVR, the amount of cash per share they are giving up to get the CVR
Agree except I don't agree that the product is worth $500. Like I said, been in M&A as well as tax in Fortune 500 companies for 25 years. let me tell you what the product is worth. It is worth fair market value which is defined as the amount for which property would be sold in a voluntary transaction between a buyer and seller, neither of whom is under any obligation to buy or sell. So you see, products of companies are sold at fair market value, what a willing buyer would pay for something. Apparently, the most a willing buyer would pay for this product was $100M roughly, plus a contingent amount if they are able to sell more of the product than they expect
2.85 not all you are going to get. You can get 3.40 or hold and get 2.85 and maybe more years from now, or maybe noy
titusmabon, do you realize how ridiculous your financial acumen is? An infusion in. 5 years? Do you realize the return of getting that infusion in 5 years would be about 9%? Sell the stock at $3.40 and put the cash in a growth fund me you will do better than 9% based on historical returns. And, there is no assurance you will get that infusion in 5 years in which case you are giving up 21% on your money today in the hope you will earn 9% on your money. Gee, that makes sense. You might want to seek out a financial advisor
Of course, In Safeguards SEC filings, they stated that they expected one of their investments to be monetized before the end of the year. Very likely it was this one. And, I would bet that Safegurad will NOT be holding to see if milestones are achieved
s52teve, let me give you some advice, my legal view. There's nothing here. Even if there was it doesn't matter. PATH is broke, understand. You need two things to come out on top of a lawsuit, liability and collectibility. Liability usually the easier part,. All there is in cases like this is generally the insurance policy which is small, enough to cover the law firm's fee. What's left might be 10 cents per share for shareholders. Only us lawyers make out in these class actions. Trust me on that.
Clueless. The analysts with the $300 million with Path's bankers. You just don't understand how the game works do you? if anyone else outside of their bankers thought the $300M was realistic, do you REALLY think the company would have had a hard time finding a buyer to pay $5 or $6 outright? Can you not understand now why it took the company so long to do a deal? Everyone was wondering, what's the problem? PATH has this great drug that will sell $300M according to "analysts" and the stock is so cheap based on these numbers. I mean, why wouldn't Glaxo step up and pay $6? That's s tiny acquisition for Glaxo right? They wouldn't because after an analysis of the market including other drugs on the horizon, big pharma concluded that the market for the Zecurity was NOT as big as originally expected and the company finally realized that there were NO buyers out there willing to give them more than $2.85, no partners willing to fund a launch on a partnership basis and no one willing to lend them funds to launch Zecurity on their own.For Endo, it was worth the risk to pay $2.85, $100 million deal because they can sell Zecurity through their existing sales force. Now do you get it?
B of A out with a note..first one I have seen which has revenue projectons for Zecurity through 2018.
For 2014 $12.2M, 2015- $26.5M, 2016-$36.1M, 2017-$40.6M, 2018-$45.5M. They do say their numbers could be conservative but too many competitors on the market including generics Those numbers are a far cry from the $100M needed so even if their numbers are conservative they would have to be WAY WAY off to hit the $100 million needed. Maybe well beyond 2018. That isn't much of a return over that period of time. No thanks. I have MUCH better places to put the cash than wait for years and years to maybe get $5. The earn out deal is starting to make sense now. If this is what bankers are expecting in terms of sales for Zecurity, it explains why Endo was only willing to pay $2.85 and more only if the sale of Zecurity surprises to the upside.