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Bank of America Corporation Message Board

homerun_al 18 posts  |  Last Activity: 1 hour 16 minutes ago Member since: Oct 18, 2006
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  • homerun_al by homerun_al 1 hour 16 minutes ago Flag

    Erectile dysfunction affects more than 150 million men worldwide, including more than 20 million in Europe and 30 million or more in the USA. The number of men suffering from ED is expected to double by the year 2025.

    Oral ED drug therapies produce undesirable side effects and the lack of effectiveness in a large percentage of the patients, hence, Vitaros provides an attractive alternative to oral therapies.

    The only question is how many of the 20 million men with ED in Europe will become regular users of Vitaros? Is a market share of 400 thousand Vitaros users in Europe a reasonable number? That's only 2% of the current market!

    At an average cost of $16.75 per dose users will spend approximately $600 per year on Vitaros, which is a reimbursable cost in most European countries. Therefore, the revenue from 400 thousand users equates to approximately $240M per year.

    Since Apricus is expecting peak sales of $300M in the EU it's reasonable to assume that most of the $210M in outstanding milestone payments will be invoiceable by Apricus by the time their EU partners reach $240M in sales. Add another 15% in royalty payments on-top of the milestone payments and we're looking at a couple of dollars in earnings by 2016 which equates to $20/share.

    “Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others Are Fearful”
    Warren Buffett

    Sentiment: Buy

  • homerun_al by homerun_al Aug 25, 2014 12:15 PM Flag

    I attribute this morning's increased volume to the new Seeking Alpha article. The writer's Conclusion:

    "At these levels, I see Apricus at a good place to accumulate shares. The stock may still go down over the next six months, however, as the launches continue, and the company begins to record more milestone payments and royalties, investors will begin to come around."

    Also, as I have argued the new focus on getting RayVa approved is strategically a great decision by management. If RayVa can be approved as an over-the-counter medication it would be huge IMO. It's ingredients are essentially the same stuff as used in Vitaros and Femprox.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • homerun_al homerun_al Aug 23, 2014 11:30 AM Flag

    I can see you've never run a business. One bad decision like betting the farm on Femprox, which has marginal efficacy IMO, could sink the ship.

    Getting RayVa approved and on the market requires a relatively small investment, and strategically speaking is a stroke of genius. It's essentially the same stuff as Vitaros and Femprox, and so what's stopping men and women from using it off-label for treating sexual dysfunction?

    I believe RayVa could potentially be approved as an over-the-counter (OTC) product, and if so, its sales potential would be astronomical.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • homerun_al homerun_al Aug 22, 2014 8:01 PM Flag

    Their expenses average $4M per quarter, so $12M covers an entire year of expenses. In addition to royalties, numerous milestone payments along the way will put them solidly in the black using even your worst case sales figure of $100M.

    Worldwide there are 150 million men with ED, and so far countries with only 1/3 of the world's population have licensed distributors for Vitaros in them. Apricus is currently working on licensing distributors in Japan, China, Mexico and South America, and this will bring in additional upfront fees. These upfront fees will likely be a lot more than any upfront licensing fee that would have been gained by licensing Femprox at this time.

    Femprox was a #$%$ shoot at best, and I for one am happy they shelved that costly project until they can build Vitaros into a self sustaining cash cow. Pascoe is making good business decisions, and I support him 100%.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Just 500K Vitaros users makes APRI a big Winner

    by homerun_al Aug 21, 2014 11:33 AM
    homerun_al homerun_al Aug 22, 2014 1:54 PM Flag

    The numbers DON'T LIE.

    Erectile dysfunction (ED) affects more than 150 million men worldwide, including more than 20 million in Europe and 30 million or more in the U.S. The number of men suffering from ED is expected to double by the year 2025.

    Oral ED drug therapies produce undesirable side effects and the lack of effectiveness in a large percentage of the patients, hence, Vitaros provides an attractive alternative to oral therapies.

    The only question is how many of the 20 million men with ED in Europe will become regular users of Vitaros? Is a market share of 300 to 500 thousand regular Vitaros users in Europe a reasonable number? You bet it is.

    At an average cost of $16.75 per dose users will spend approximately $600 per year for Vitaros (which is at least a partially reimbursable cost in most European countries). Therefore, the revenue from 300 to 500 thousand users will be $150M to $300M per year, which IMO is a very conservative number.

    Since Apricus is expecting peak sales of $300M in the EU (with or without the RTD), it's reasonable to assume that the $200M in milestone payments will be invoiceable by Apricus by the time their EU partners reach $300M in total sales. Add another 15% in royalty payments on-top of the milestone payments and we're talking several dollars in earns in 2016 IMO.

    Wake up people, this stock is currently dirt cheap!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • All that's needed to make APRI a big winner is just 500K Vitaros users buying one 4-dose package of Vitaros per month. That equates to $300M per year in sales which will trigger $200M in milestone payments and $40M per year in royalties.

    Prospects of having a $20+ per share stock by the end of 2016 still look very promising to me, and I'm actually glad they're not going to burn more cash on Femprox when they have a bird in hand with Vitaros.

    My message to Pascoe is to focus like a laser on the success of Vitaros. License partners in Japan, China, and countries south of the border. Ramp up the number of Vitaros users worldwide and concentrate on creating a cash cow before doing ANYTHING else.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • They've been working on new partnering agreements for these countries for awhile. I believe at least 2 new partners will be announced in the near future.

    A partner for Japan would be huge, and since Takeda is a Japanese company it should be a shoe-in for this country. If they do the deal because of good results Takeda has been getting in the UK it would speak volumes for Vitaros's successful future. Just the spark we need to get the pps moving higher.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    IsoRay, Inc. Institutional Ownership

    by theshareprice30 Aug 8, 2014 2:25 PM
    homerun_al homerun_al Aug 8, 2014 2:55 PM Flag

    Institutional ownership is 4%, not a good number. This could explain why isn't already at $7 or $8.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • homerun_al by homerun_al Jul 22, 2014 12:00 PM Flag

    Found the following link for your collection.
    http://www.streetinsider.com/Analyst+Comments/Maxim+Group+Assumes+IsoRay+%28ISR%29+at+Buy/9664144.html

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Dead money???

    by isaacish2010 Jul 16, 2014 1:50 PM
    homerun_al homerun_al Jul 16, 2014 2:00 PM Flag

    Why in the World would you Hold onto your shares if you think it's dead money for 2-4 years? It's highly likely they'll be reporting their first profitable quarter in the coming year you know.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Everybody should read the new corporate presentation which was just posted on APRI's web site. The company is seeing high demand for Vitaros in the UK, and is forging ahead on all fronts.

    Nice work Pascoe, keep it up!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • homerun_al homerun_al Jun 26, 2014 2:39 PM Flag

    Up $2 in a blink when lung cancer results are announced.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • homerun_al by homerun_al Jun 24, 2014 3:51 PM Flag

    Wipe-out the short ilk on this board once and for all.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • homerun_al homerun_al Jun 24, 2014 1:19 PM Flag

    The lung cancer results are due any day now. Babcock just smiles when asked about them.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • $500M? $1B? $2B. ISR is a much better buy than Vertex, and has a LOT more potential.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • homerun_al homerun_al Jun 24, 2014 12:45 PM Flag

    The resistance at $3.15 is fading fast.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    ISR is all set up to blow the top off.

    by bigmac7406 Jun 24, 2014 12:36 PM
    homerun_al homerun_al Jun 24, 2014 12:39 PM Flag

    I agree. I've never seen a cancer treatment that was so effective against so many types of cancer.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • homerun_al by homerun_al Jun 24, 2014 12:36 PM Flag

    Nobody understands just how big this is going to be.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

BAC
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