Yes, I'm sure the longs are hoping for that too. of course they had better get out quick because hov only makes money every 5 to 10 years. Then they fall apart for a few years.
It sounds just like a politician, we're not making money now but will later.
"we're are going raise taxes now the benefits will come in the later years."
According to hov management, they have been ramping up sites, sales are coming in and improving why should they not make money?
yes I can see in some years the weather is a problem but Nov and Dec were very good in most of the country. what's the problem? why do they hang onto the tradition of losing money in the first quarter?
we will see. but I am very skeptical of this companies ability to make profits and keep their word. just too many disappointments in the past. If things are getting better as most of the posters here are claiming there really should be no question they make money. Low rates, improving economic conditions improving job market all of these have been stated. If all of that is true there should be no question hov has a profitable quarter.
They could start to prove themselves by doing what they said and performing. Lets see if they can have a profitable first quarter. I still expect the excuses. too cold, too hot , no workers, no materials etc. They know them all.
Maybe however better managed companies will benefit at a greater level than the poorly run concerns laden with debt. I Think its so much easier to believe that a stock will rise from 1.50 to 3 than it is for a $40 stock like lennar to go from $40 to 80. If the environment for home building is going to propel hov isn't the same environment more likely to propel Len they are already making money.
I have not see all that much of that. Yes increases in sales are happening but they are based on comparisons with near bottom lows. yes its a start and I don't want to sound negative all of the time but this administration as well as others have believed that fed monetary action or stimulus can fix everything. we are now finding out its not really working. if you think it is you are being fooled. Its the easy way out for the executive and legislative branches. no big brawls on taxes and spending etc. When have you every seen the easy way out work?
why do you think that the bond is back down below 2%? and not going the other way?
do you think its because they are feeling good about the economy?
well the facts are right there staring you in the face from $80 or whatever it made it to around $1.50. its a way to finance Ara's lifestyle and a few of his cronies. When Kevork ran the company they had people work for them for 20+ years without being laid off. I'm taking about construction people.
Another reply just so you may have a better handle on where I'm coming from. I really dislike the fact that hov and to some extent other builders have made this industry such a feast and famine industry. They have not been successful evening out the huge swings. They have also not retained any of the gains in their stock or equity. Of course they are having a problem finding workers, they were instrumental in forcing many of them to do other things or starve. (Yes I know its cyclical) but instead of deciding to change and opt to build to company for sustained growth they are doing the same thing as before with no change, no imagination nothing new, just shine it up a bit. They have missed many opportunities to change, expand and do things better and now are banking on a ramp up of more communities fueled completely by borrowed money. They have not done a good job at all of the long term investor. although many on this board do not care other than to say when is gets to $2 or $3 or what ever the target is I'm gone. I think that is a pis poor attitude and not good for any industry.
I hate the new Yahoo message boards. Hard to find anything. I just wanted to respond to some of Homeseeks' latest. First, he says it's a $1.50 stock. At present, he is correct but that will change.
That is yet to be seen. If it was selling for $4.50 yesterday it would be a $4.50 stock. duh.
Second, he stated his company does work for HOV and thinks they're idiots because they wouldn't let him do some work he thought was necessary. That is not what I said at all. I said that they way they wanted the project completed showed they were not confident in their ability to sell the units in a short time. we actually charged them more to provide this in the manner they wanted. I said they may paying it safe. but on the other hand they may simply not be selling or expect to sell with any regularity
Here we finally see the truth emerging more ways than one. If he thinks they are going bankrupt why is he taking the risk of not getting paid? HOV isn't paying up front for work or services. So, it is apparent he is not really afraid of losing money because he knows they are not going to file bankruptcy any time soon. I do not think they are going bankrupt. we do projects for hov all of the time. We used to do many other things for them and they are not that busy and are really not doing that much. and no they are not using someone else.
He may come around and say it's his company that he works for extending the credit and in that case I guess he's smarter also than the company he works for. Then, he is now the expert and thinks just because they have done things in the past with his company they are still necessary. Apparently, management might just be smarter than him and decided that expense isn't necessary. We don't know the service he provided but common sense dictates here. I'm not sure what the point is?
It is apparent that Homeseek is motivated by something greater than honesty here. As I keep saying......what is his true agenda? I really have no agenda.
The last part, I'm not too sure about. there have been multiple failures on the part of management, that is why I do not trust them. I think they were being aggressive when others were cautious. Their aggressive use of leverage has nearly killed the company. Its almost like GM and Ford and few years ago. Ford was better managed and did not need to be bought out or bailed out,
Rossi, I like your approach and attitude. I agree it is not a $7 stock and should be looked at as a $1.50 . My problem is that I know this company and unfortunately their management has made a mess of things. I just don't see a turnaround unless they change their ways. They believe just like the us gov that they can borrow their way out of the trouble. so far neither is really working. at $1.50 it should only be considered as a high risk play and a trade not an investment.
The investment that is needed to roll out 50 new communities is a great thing and its understandable that is where all of their money is going. The question is will the units sell? You act as if its a foregone conclusion.
if I'm wrong then fine but that remains to be seen. We recently did a little job for hov and without providing details they were extremely cautious and did not display too much confidence that the community was going to sell. its hard to explain. in broad terms what they asked us to do showed they had very little confidence in the ability to sell units. maybe it was just an abundance of caution I'm not sure.
How has it been proven wrong? before the big fall in housing occurred, approx 2 million homes were being built annually now its 540k. some economists have stated that approx. 1.5 million would be a "normal " level I remember when the big fall occurred economist had predicted new housing units to drop to around 500k. of course it dropped further than that number so, in that way you are correct we are at or near the bottom. I think it will come back somewhat but it will be a very slow recovery and not a level that will provide hov enough economic assistance to make hov money due, mostly to their debt.
maybe, but as of now the increase in demand has not occurred as expected. I know everyone that is long hov wants to see the opportunity and all of that but I believe housing is a big piece of the economy and any recovery,. The reason we've had a dismal recovery is because housing has not really leading the way. The labor participation rate is pretty much the lowest its been in the last several decades. I think people are changing their opinions on housing due to losses. many people lost money in the 1986 to 1990 recession and in 2007 to 2010 there has always been recessions but not with the huge losses like that. This makes people question if its worth it. The younger people are having enough problems just getting and keeping a job. Yes there will always be home sales and some will buy but not at the level they were, and growth has been slow at best. phony growth through only monetary policy is not getting it done. look. do you see growth once the fed wants to move rates? No. the fed is pretty much done and all they did was to decrease the value of the dollar that now has stabilized since they stopped QE lets see if they try again with QE4. You guys are scratching your heads saying look at the rates saying its a no brainer but the problem is its not a no brainer. many people are just not willing to jump back in or they cannot because their credit was destroyed the last time.
Millennials continue to shy away from buying homes. A decade ago, 43% of people 18 to 35 years old were homeowners. Today, it’s below 35%.
But the decline isn’t just because of Millennials. All age groups have seen a falloff in homeownership in the past 10 years. In 2005, 69.7% of those 35 to 44 years old owned a home. In 2015, it was 59.3%.
However, it also means the demand for rentals is on the rise. Median asking home prices are back to where they were 10 years ago but median rents are up 43% in that time.