Did all of the other housing stocks have double the volume and are they at or near multi year lows?
good feelings about American companies and housing are not going to get it done. Its profits that matter.
companies with an over burden of debt are not strong companies. they are generally poorly managed and eventually either go out of business, get taken under or restructured in some way bankruptcy etc. the other builders in our area which is Hovs main location are doing well and are eating hovs lunch. with better offerings, better price, better and newer products and in a much better financial position. The stock is showing this. stop thinking its the shorts, the weakness in the stock is there because it deserves to be there.
do you actually think you have this figured out while the rest of the market has it wrong. Hov is not doing well. too much debt. what good are sales and operations if all of the cash flow is either used up as a cost to do business or paying debt. their sales ebita all go to for debt service. terrible managers. they own very little in the form of assets.
Is it showing up in the form of higher prices of real estate? Maybe, but it certainly is not showing up in the price of Hov stock.
I don't have a position in Hov to consider but I'm "considering" it
market is up over 200 dow points and HOV is down over 2% you tell me?
is it about to rain money for the HOV longs as Danzy suggests in a previous message? Watch out for these perennial hov longs that may or may not even be long the stock. This company has a long way to go to be a well run enterprise. Ara should consider hiring a real manager as a CEO someone that can build and fix their balance sheet. Not figure out creative ways to fund their operations.
Although the unemployment numbers are lower now they are monthly figures. Have you looked at the entire picture? its terrible, huge under-employment, (low paying part time jobs) many people have given up on looking for a job. using the one measure of unemployment is hugely skewed. they count a part time job earning $8/hr the same as a job earning 100k a year.
Just because people want and desire to buy a house does not mean its "demand", unless they have the means to make the purchase.
First, is the board only for people with current positions? next, I have had positions in the past. I had both puts and calls etc. My most recent position was puts. I also was long the stock but that was some time ago.
The order on these posts is screwed up, I think, but anyway,
I don't blame you for your thoughts on HOV, I should feel that way too, I probably have many more reasons to hate Hov. My investment ideas are quite different now. There are plenty of great real estate investments that pay dividends that pay for you to hold them. They also develop properties, much better investment. IMHO.
why would they buy? take on the debt? no one is interested. if they are it would be to do a TAKE UNDER. Ara is there to run his father's company like a toy or a hobby.
I would love to hear some intelligent reasons on both sides
I'm not sure its as bad as that, but maybe its close. I think the company provides a nice living for the execs and management and some of the employees etc. but the execs are really benefitting in a big way. they have not learned anything from the financial collapse, they still think they can overcome their debt etc. The stock does not pay a dividend and has not built any equity for the shareholders so unless you have access to free stock like the execs its not worth it to hold other than a timely trade.
I haven't defended the company? I think you misunderstand.
or you want to misunderstand. I have no hate for the company I simply believe they have not managed the company well. They managed the company's business like a get rich quick scheme.
They bought high and now they are stuck, just like anyone else that bought property in 2005 and 2006 etc.
I'm sure you are, as I would be but think of it like this. if you had to pay mortgage of 99% of your income. if you wanted to do something on your home you would have to borrow,costing you more in interest costs. oops I have an auto repair to pay for etc. etc. borrow borrow
maybe the economic environment is the same but the debt load is not the same. Toll is much more conservative. hov is leveraged to the hilt.
Back in 2005 and 2006 when the bottom fell out of the housing market they were telling people in their communities they were going to hold the line on pricing as to not under cut the homeowners, the prices already moved against them and everyone else. what did they think they were going to control the market. more arrogance, eventually they had to lower prices or risk never selling another home. I mention this to show their poor judgment.
although running ads in an old fashioned newspaper does not sound great, who knows why they do it but I assure you its not the only avenue they market their products. the problem is likely not the marketing, its their debt and fixed costs. just before the crash they were building a huge corporate headquarters that was overpriced and from what I here, was hugely over budget. (arrogance)
I agree with everything this guy says about HOV. the fact is there for all of you to see. I stick around in the hope I'm wrong and they turn it around or something. but he's terrible. The arrogance he shows like they have it all figured out, and they know what they are doing etc. look at the record a good quarter here and there and then a few bad ones with losses. one step forward and 3 back. this is reflected in the stock. The market has it right with this one.
no pride at least not with this, I cannot stand these pumpers who try to get others to jump into their stock, like its going to help their foolish cause. I thought you were one of those. My other issue is HOV management. they have basically ruined this company in their desire to compete with other larger players like tol by spending borrowed money to finance their purchases which have not paid off. If you were to listen to them they would tell you they are the smartest people in the room