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Granite City Food & Brewery Ltd. Message Board

honda4everrrr 3726 posts  |  Last Activity: Dec 21, 2011 3:06 PM Member since: Jan 28, 2003
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  • Reply to

    AGNC/NLY

    by ssj5vegit Dec 20, 2011 12:34 PM
    honda4everrrr honda4everrrr Dec 21, 2011 3:06 PM Flag

    IMO, the extra risk you have to take on with AGNC simply isn't worth the extra yield. A safer play would be to sell call options on your NLY position to make up the difference in yield.

  • honda4everrrr by honda4everrrr Oct 18, 2011 4:56 PM Flag

    I went back to see what the herd of analysts was predicting 30 and 90 days ago, and according to what Yahoo tracks, it was $6.42 90 days ago, and $7.07 30 days ago. Simply put, the analysts all bought into the short term overhype. Consensus for next quarter is currently $8.98, far under the guidance the company gave today. Let the traders play with it and jump in for the next run. But base your decision on company guidance, not the streets cuz they have no idea what they're talking about. This stock is foolishly still pricing in the death of Jobs and zero growth going forward. Not saying the future is as rosy as many predict but it ain't as bad as is being reflected in the stock price. Just my $.02 worth...

  • Reply to

    Credit Rating

    by derfd22 Jul 21, 2011 10:23 PM
    honda4everrrr honda4everrrr Jul 22, 2011 2:47 PM Flag

    I would say those are more like possibilities rather than consequences. If the debt payments are made at the expense of government employees, the likely result would be that rates head lower, not higher. Of course there would be protests, but...
    It's all a matter of taking crappy tasting medicine now or dying later. Neither is fun.

  • Reply to

    Finally over $18.00

    by thirdpartyoperator Jul 21, 2011 9:47 AM
    honda4everrrr honda4everrrr Jul 22, 2011 2:29 PM Flag

    Well that all depends on what they would do should it happen. If they decide to make those payments and lay off the guy who mows grass in the national parks, the reaction would be a positive one. Of course the park system would want to close everything the very next day to make the public suffer and reshape public opinion...

  • Reply to

    Lack of honest discussion by management.

    by RabbiBerman Jul 7, 2011 12:59 PM
    honda4everrrr honda4everrrr Jul 19, 2011 3:40 PM Flag

    Hi Cards. It's been a while! Now in complete hindsight it is obvious that those numbers were born completely out of necessity. Rabbi, you don't know this cuz you haven't been around for most of this, but the trouble arose out of the original business plan before they even went public. They built three full breweries and used a lot of debt. The plan was to get things rolling, do a big public and clean up the balance sheet. But then that whole issue with the economy, commodity prices, etc. screwed that all up. Frankly, the fact that they're still around, all be it with massive dilution is pretty remarkable. In actuality balance sheet wise the company is probably in the best shape it has ever been. That don't mean it's great, but it's the truth...

  • honda4everrrr honda4everrrr Mar 10, 2011 1:01 PM Flag

    The problem with education is NOT teacher pay. If it were, there's be a huge shortage and schools would have to pay up to attract candidates. That is clearly not happening. Education is an EASY career, and colleges across the country crank out TONS of new teachers every year. It's simple supply and demand.

    The problem with our education system is a lack of parental involvement and responsibility. The best performing students have the most involved parents. All the money in the world is not going to change that. If parents would do their jobs, teachers could teach and not have to parent too.

  • Reply to

    Wow!!! I thought this was dead money, but...

    by mn_cynic Jan 4, 2011 4:07 PM
    honda4everrrr honda4everrrr Jan 5, 2011 12:30 PM Flag

    Hey there... It's been a while! I haven't read a whole lot into things, but these are my observations thus far: This is a win-win for everyone. There's never been any doubt about the concept, just the strangling debt... This deal takes care of that. Don't really know all the details, like how much equity is being given up, and whether it is Dunham's, Wags, shareholders, etc., but for us as shareholders a small percentage of nothing is better than a large percentage of nothing. The share price is spiking because there is now demand not seen for YEARS. This stock has been left for dead I doubt many shares (up to this point)have been in the hands of traders. My guess is that someone has penciled the revenue numbers and figured out what this company is capable of with the debt converted to equity and has made a long bet accordingly... But with a really small float, look for this thing to be choppy for a while....

  • Reply to

    dead money here at best

    by floridahockeyman Dec 10, 2010 11:33 AM
    honda4everrrr honda4everrrr Dec 13, 2010 5:58 PM Flag

    True, but trivial. No doubt it's a spec play, but you're underestimating the value of the intellectual property. $300m isn't a lot of money to a big player in search of a better mouse trap.

  • Reply to

    home depot on crack

    by rob99rst Dec 8, 2010 10:15 AM
    honda4everrrr honda4everrrr Dec 10, 2010 3:33 PM Flag

    Lumber, hell. They're buying curtains, lighting, trim, paint, vanities, mirrors, and a bunch of other crap that has not only higher margins, but also takes up less shelf space in the store. The more time people spent sitting at home because they didn't have the money to go out, the more stuff they found that they want to do to their homes.

  • Reply to

    Target raise by piper

    by jimmyclog Dec 9, 2010 9:20 AM
    honda4everrrr honda4everrrr Dec 10, 2010 3:22 PM Flag

    A few analysts do good research, but most are just sheep. Based on my own observations over the past few years, customer service is MUCH improved, there seems to be happier employees, and the company is on rock solid ground financially. For long term investors, Nardelli gave a golden opportunity to buy a broken but fixable company on the cheap. This could easily be a $70/share company in a few years...I bought back in a year or so ago in the $24 range and am holding on. This is a crap economy and they're still making decent money...not what they were but decent. That can only get better.

  • Reply to

    Dead beat home owners.

    by longpickuptruck Nov 3, 2010 2:29 PM
    honda4everrrr honda4everrrr Nov 15, 2010 12:27 PM Flag

    FYI, they were trying to reign things in long before 2005. And you want to link the desire to maintain the housing boom to Jeb in Florida and his brother? Get real. I guess there was no constituency in Arizona, Nevada, or California. But none the less an interesting bend of the facts on your part.

    Clinton and Bush were both pushing for an "ownership" society. Remember, it was Clinton who signed the huge capital gains exemption on the sale of one's primary residence. That fueled the bubble as much as anything. Here's a link to what members of Congress were saying over the years...dating back to 2003:
    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122290574391296381.html

  • Reply to

    Dead beat home owners.

    by longpickuptruck Nov 3, 2010 2:29 PM
    honda4everrrr honda4everrrr Nov 12, 2010 1:25 PM Flag

    You seem to be forgetting that it was congress who encouraged and allowed Fannie and Freddie to loosen guidelines so money could be lent to their less creditworthy constituents. If the government sponsored agencies don't rubberstamp the paper, it doesn't get written. It's as simple as that.

  • honda4everrrr honda4everrrr Nov 12, 2010 12:50 PM Flag

    Let's not let the facts get in the way of useless banter. ;)

  • Reply to

    Chances for C @ $5 by Christmas

    by carthrrrr Nov 12, 2010 12:32 PM
    honda4everrrr honda4everrrr Nov 12, 2010 12:49 PM Flag

    IMO, it all depends on when the USG is done unloading shares. I look for a very quick $1 pop once word gets out that they are done....

  • honda4everrrr honda4everrrr Nov 8, 2010 12:22 PM Flag

    They HAVE to sue. If they don't, they don't have someone to place blame on; and then it's back to their own blatant stupidity for purchasing the paper. We're talking about some of the largest most sophisticated financial companies on the planet. No judge or jury is going to believe that a plaintiff shouldn't know what they are buying. It's a long shot for them, but the lawyers are already paid for so they gotta try...

  • Reply to

    If BV is

    by gargano1234 Oct 28, 2010 1:14 PM
    honda4everrrr honda4everrrr Nov 2, 2010 6:44 PM Flag

    IMO, those concerns are already priced into the stock. before the meltdown, the share price was around $20 and the yield around 7%. Considering that leverage is a paltry 6.4X at the moment, they do have some bullets to fire to maintain a decent yield. MF is on record repeatedly stating that his objective is to maintain the double digit yield with as little risk as possible. I look for them to gradually lever up to offset declining yield spreads, thus maintaining a decent yield and share price as well. I agree the 15% yield isn't sustainable, but that doesn't mean the market isn't expecting or won't be happy with a 12% yield, because I know I am. If the market becomes happy with a 9% yield again, look for the share price to go up quite a bit.

  • Reply to

    FOLKS,REVERSE SPLIT IS A GIVEN

    by sync2l12 Oct 25, 2010 12:20 PM
    honda4everrrr honda4everrrr Oct 25, 2010 5:10 PM Flag

    C will ROCKET upward as soon as the the news is out that the USG is done liqudating. Everyone knows it. No real need for a r/s. Opportunities like this don't come around very often...

  • Reply to

    Cramer on Citi

    by vetfrc Oct 25, 2010 2:29 PM
    honda4everrrr honda4everrrr Oct 25, 2010 4:54 PM Flag

    Uh...it's gonna go a hell of a lot higher than $4.50 when that happens....

  • Reply to

    Executive Compensation

    by seriously_skeptical_single_guy Oct 19, 2010 1:42 PM
    honda4everrrr honda4everrrr Oct 20, 2010 4:20 PM Flag

    Maybe a better point of reference would be Bob Nardelli during his tenure at Home Depot...He hauled out wheelbarrels full of cash out of there and at the same time ran a once great company into the ground. Then they had to pay him a sh!tload more just to get him to leave. I got no problem paying market wages if they're making me money. Is it too much? That's for the shareholders to decide. If you're one who bops in and out of here on a whim and aren't a long term owner, why do you care?

  • honda4everrrr by honda4everrrr Oct 7, 2010 12:29 PM Flag

    Looks like we had some directors purchase some shares in August. Rent renegotiations are pretty much in place, so survival seems to be a sure thing. Now it's just a matter of what they do with it going forward. Hopefully they'll hang on to it long enough for us to see some of the benefit...

GCFB
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