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First Solar, Inc. Message Board

hootenanny58 4 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 2, 2014 12:21 PM Member since: May 27, 2005
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  • Reply to

    1st qtr Earnings

    by laddproduction Apr 2, 2014 1:28 AM
    hootenanny58 hootenanny58 Apr 2, 2014 12:21 PM Flag

    I do hope there's some substance that comes from the shareholders meeting. Anything to put the lit match to all that short interest gasoline.

    As much as you'd be naturally inclined to think that blowing away estimates - and consistently - would push a stock northward, what we've seen since last fall has been wholly unnatural - as in fake. Three times they've clobbered WS; three times we've taken a 20-30% haircut. The chart don't lie. SPWR's been range-bound since Sept/Oct.

    I just can't help but return to the notion that some unseen force is doing Total a big favour. If it wants the rest of Sunpower, it might be willing to pony up a 15% premium - but not at an SP of $40+. They like it right where it is.

    My conclusion (and I hope I'm wrong tho the charts say differently): nothing comes of the 23 Apr shareholder meeting. A runnup into the usual $36/37 area ahead of earnings, slide back to somewhere 'round $32, then Total does what it set out to do May/June timeframe. IMHO. I've been long on this stock and I'm doing OK, but it could and should be so much more.

  • hootenanny58 by hootenanny58 Mar 20, 2014 3:44 PM Flag

    This is exactly where the manipulators wanted this to be all along. And they're going to keep it on a short leash all day tomorrow just to be sure. Too easy. Shoulda, coulda, woulda ...

  • Or, perhaps, what can afford to buy short positions on 30% of a successful company's float?

    It seems counter-intuitive to me to risk the sums of money involved on a successful company. Does this imply that the company is worth less than market price? That's seems just as crazy. Sunpower is firing on all cylinders, producing at maximum capacity in a can't-miss growth industry.

    So who benefits from holding this back? Given what I've just said about Sunpower - and the last three quarters support my thesis that it is indeed a success by all measures - wouldn't it be easier (and far more logical) to make the big bucks by letting the PPS run its more logical course? Again, why risk the better-than-average probability that you'll lose in a TSLA-style short squeeze? Were not talking tiddly winks here. 'Makes no sense, right?

    So, here's the rub: Total knows what it's got and the part of it that it doesn't own now, it will buy at its first opportunity in June. And it doesn't want to pay a premium atop a runaway PPS. When Total saw SPWR run from 19 to 30, it slammed down hard on the brakes. Three SPWR quarters; three beats; more upgrades than any other rating - and from reputable firms; three times significant PPS haircuts in the aftermath. Crazy talk!

    Who else might have something to gain by holding SPWR down? In the short run maybe, but with risk too big for small fry to stomach. But WHO stands to win if the PPS stagnates (as it's done over the past 4 months) from now until June 2014 - however artificially and against all odds in a fair market? Only one answer IMO: Total.

  • hootenanny58 by hootenanny58 Feb 10, 2014 2:53 PM Flag

    We all assume that regardless of the name, the so-called "quiet period" is as leaky as money can puncture.

    I wish the optimists were right and Wednesday's a rocket, but stop me if you've heard this one before (or, in SPWR's case, two times already). Someday this will work out for true longs, but the capacity overhang until 2015 is the gotcha here.

    Limping (no, flatlining) into the Q report - again. A whisper number's out there alright - we've not heard it - but those with the money to get it aren't impressed obviously. SPWR will beat, they'll churn a bit bigger bottom line from expense management, and then ... Oh well. Silver lining for those that can: Pick it up on the dip. Someday ...

67.32-0.27(-0.40%)Apr 17 4:00 PMEDT

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