well, okay....I'm not arguing with you further.....and I'm not defending pie-in-the-sky stock prices for IFON either. I have not done that and won't. I'm simply responding to your inquiry with regard to my opinion about whether sales and margins will show typical seasonality, looking ahead to the 1st quarter and beyond.
BTW, I think you are taking some liberties with my words and their intended context. You clearly are disregarding my other remarks about a transition (transitions, of course, rarely change things overnight but do with time). Surely, there would be the negative impact to gross margins we've witnessed in the short-term as IFON sells off cheaper merchandise in favor of emphasizing smartphone business more. To give you my opinion, I'm not looking in the rear-view mirror but weighing out what we've been told about IFON's business ahead. For me, more emphasis on higher end merchandise....if it sells well....probably means better margins once the shift in business is complete. Might it even take time beyond the 1st quarter? Yes.
Further, IM is likely to increase IFON phone sales and have a negative impact on margins but create operating leverage, IMO. Will that happen overnight? The answer is obvious, don't you think?
I was simply trying to answer your inquiry honestly. So, keep your opinion but don't take words I've written to give your opinion to those words in a manner that disregards my opinion. I respect your opinion much as I hope you do mine. Clearly we may differ on this: I think IFON's fundamental business is amidst change. Will the net effect be to bring higher net margins once phone changes are in place and IM is up and running? I don't know but believe it will. Will the net effect bring much higher sales? I think so. Do I think this fundamental change in business will reset prior YOY comparative analysis? I do.
any day. If we get a good one, we'll be off to the races, IMO. Even if the upcoming 3rd fiscal quarterly report does not delight investors in terms of 3rd quarter performance, management said last time (the 2nd fiscal quarter report from December) they had nice momentum going and were optimistic about it continuing although they cautioned slightly about any unexpected buying behavior from customers around the end of the calendar year....also, mgt. even said they were upbeat about fiscal 2015. They cautioned but said they felt good about doing well even with the challenges faced. Altogether, that pointed to an "extended" positive outlook.....for a year and a half (3rd and 4th quarters, fiscal 2014 and all of fiscal 2015). That's pretty decent visibility.
My point is that it is a very good thing here that everything does not hinge on the coming report alone. So long as they at least do decently and sustain the longer outlook commentary, I think any potential pullback would be seen as a buying opportunity, because of the strong extended outlook. If managements' mild cautionary statement, from the last report, about end of calendar year customer buying behavior adversely affects the numbers any, IMO, downside might be the upper 8s and I doubt it would stay that low for long.....again, so long as management remains upbeat on the future. As far as what I really think, I feel pretty good that the report will be solid and the outlook remarks favorable; if that happens, I think the upside is much more than a couple of bucks a share. So, the reward to risk of holding through earnings is why I'm holding and excited about the potential from here.
These are just my opinions; please others jump in....and best wishes to us again,
I think we are talking apples and oranges. The smartphones were not a growing element in the year ago comp periods or the 2012 periods. If I'm recollecting correctly, IFON released 4 smartphones since May of 2013, two of them toward (or in) the 4th quarter (just reported). In one of the very recent news articles on IFON, I believe it states that 7 additional smartphone models will roll out this year.
Now, exactly what impact on margins and sales this variation in business and product emphasis has is speculation at this point. Also, how will the IM distribution network impact things given that a large U.S presence is possible where there was none a year ago? However, Ram talked about both things in the earnings release last week. Was he alluding to expectations BEYOND the 1st quarter when he mentioned demand starting to pick up with smartphone business and mentioned further trying to achieve growth by breaking into U.S. markets....or was the 1st quarter ALSO IN view? Since there was about a month of the 1st quarter yet to go when the release came out, we at least know the smartphone business is impacting part of it. The IM agreement was struck late in December.
So, the business model is changing and expanding....how can Ingram Mobility's U.S. network not change things, revenue-wise? I think you are excluding some important factors from you analysis.
I saw a video today by Cramer where he was flabbergasted by the behavior of some stocks.....he mentioned a small cell phone company among the companies mentioned. He was pointing to pure momentum stocks and it seems that Cramer's recent statements on the other companies has only accelerated the positive attention their way, even though he's not being positive. No, doubt momentum is "a" driver with IFON here. So, do I believe IFON's business is growing fast? I do. Can the price get ahead of itself? Easily. So, I'm keeping my eyes peeled closely....this market is getting a bit scary, IMO.
Well, the one thing about you, Ana, aside from your utterly distasteful arrogance is that you don't mind saying what will happen and risk having egg on your face....and your insatiable desires don't even tolerate mere bullishness.....you can only hear pure euphoria. Anything less simply won't do.
So, it is written, so let it be done is your mantra.....so, you've written.10 for the next quarter, so let it be done. The thing is, even if it turns out to be .02, you won't bring up the fact that you said around .10. However, the great Ana has spoken and told us .10 is in the bag.
Yest my remarks above are tainted with cynicism. However, I will conclude on a serious note.....if your dogma happens....that is, if we see .10 for the 1st quarter and strong follow-up outlook remarks, the $10 figure will be more than likely, IMO, even better. Forgive me for expressing reservation toward that level of optimism toward the next quarter. Even so, I hope your "humble opinion" comes true and benefits the rest of us "chumps."
P.S. I do think we are set up for another strong move up in the near term given today's action....JMO.
Look marsavian...you may offend Ana, but not me. So, ask away, friend. I understand the future is always uncertain and we are all speculating based on what we can surmise from reading between the lines. I'm over half out of IFON, as previously stated, and resting comfortably with IFON because of that. Because my cost average was well below a buck per share, I'm not going to pander about "more." I got my share already. My plan is to be sensible and not get drawn into the emotional side of investing.....as best I can control that. So, my management of my IFON investment relative to my remaining hold now allows me to look at the possibilities more objectively.
Having said this, given that demand for IFON's higher end goods is rising, per Ram's commentary.....and recent articles noting Ram's intentions to release 7 new higher end products during 2014, I'm guessing margins will improve in the 1st quarter on rising revenues and thereafter. I suspect YOY revenues for the 1st quarter will increase substantially, and increase moderately on a sequential basis.
Ram rarely expresses anything toward the future in an earnings release, much less remarks that suggest things are improving.....like he did this time. Also, the 1st quarter is almost over so he is well aware of how the quarter is going. I think the gross margin will notch up for the quarter. With higher revenues, if IFON can continue to manage operating expenses, my guess is for another profit and a moderately better one.
Actually, I was expecting for the 4th quarter what you describe as a concern for the 1st quarter. The 4th quarter also surprised me in that it came out earlier than any on record for IFON previously.....it's usually the end of March. That tells me Ram "wanted" to report the news. I sense optimism from him, not hesitation.
It may take a bit of time, but I think it will absorb the 3s and move into the 4 pretty soon, IMO. For those looking for a reason to sell in the latest report, that report simply did not provide it, IMO. To the contrary, Ram's outlook comments pointed to improved margins and higher revenues (he stated smartphone demand was increasing and the company was migrating more in that direction...and that U.S. sales would be next). Further, there was substantial revenue improvement in the 4th quarter itself. Going a step further, the upcoming 1st quarter YOY comparison will be an easy one given that last year's revenue for that quarter was only 7.8M and the bottom line sported a whopping loss of over 700K.
So, there's simply nothing to prompt a reversal in trend, IMO. It's just opinion, but I think the fundamental improvements will direct the path of the stock price into the 4s without much ado.
Yes......missed opportunity. People are rough on Darren because of this kind of thing and I'm sure he gets frustrated because he obviously possesses a strong work ethic and a deep knowledge of the industry. However, it indeed takes effective implementation to succeed.
My thoughts here are just speculation from years of following the company, and I hope they exhibit a balanced perspective.
Few stocks have generated as much excitement (anticipation) or as much disappointment as MCZ. It is truly a Tale of Two Cities. IMO, Darren's strengths may not be utilized best as he's positioned. It seems to me that he is the intellectual mind of the business, but the ideal positioning for a person of this caliber may not be at the helm, IMO. Ironically, I think when a person's talents are not positioned ideally, it takes away from the perception of strengths he/she really possesses. To me, Darren is an "idea" person....a wonderful concept guy.....he's hands on and clearly is prescient on the industry and senses the pulse of the consumer. MCZ cannot do without him, IMO!
However, regular success depends on the CEO overseeing a business in an manner that exudes a highly efficient and practical strategic planning and implementation structure. I'm not sure Darren's talents are best utilized in the CEO position....not to mention that no CEO can wear too many hats without it costing effectiveness. The evidence across many years does not reveal a lack of highly effective concept, IMO, but rather a lack of translating significant concept into timely implementation....whether the racing wheel, the Warhead or other.
Across the years, I simply size MCZ up as a company of occasional successes clouded by enough missed opportunities to keep it from achieving its potential (basically running in place). Sometimes a person expects too much of himself/herself where sharing the load might improve things. Iron always sharpens iron.
we need it to "work out for them" one more time.....:))
APT will report again in a couple of months. We need to get a 3rd straight report with eps of .04 or .05 cents for a quarter (and next time without the help of any one-time benefits)....and on growing revenues. That would legitimately get us to 3 or better, IMO. So, we wait unless, of course, we get it to "work out for someone" in a big way before then. Maybe it was a big market order that day that triggered all the hoopla. Oh well.
I like it due to the very conservative and strong balance sheet (they could easily pick up a related business....sure don't want them to spread out in unrelated areas further). They have a lot of financial flexibility if they would follow a well-planned strategy (focus on the word "if"). I think the housing market will drive sales increases for a while in that end of APT's business....and lead to some operating leverage. The P/E is high but the numbers are so small from which to grow. On the downside, APT's conservatism, represented by the balance sheet, while good on one hand, probably reflects management's hesitancy to engage in the kind of calculated risks that could really put up some growth numbers.
IFON has been the stock for me this year. The report was good today, but the stock has had momo juice too since December and has more than offset the damage of a couple of other stocks that have not done too well over the past year for me. I hope you have been doing well in life and the stock market.
Well, Fab, I got one thumbs up and 2 down and you have 2 up and 2 down.........and we expressed opposite opinions about the short term reaction to news. I'm not sure how to interpret. LOL. There must be another view that's neither positive nor negative, I guess.
There were some one-time things, but I was expecting a weaker overall result, even considering the one-time factors. Nonetheless, my opinion is not that strong and I know better than to differ strongly with your opinions, which I highly regard. Take care.
Solid 4th quarter earnings......spring and summer should be strong for building products....so outlook should be strong. We are going up, IMO, whether today or next week, I don't know.
I thought that too.....but sometimes I'm not so sure about the level of market efficiency on companies like IFON without a large following, I'm not sure what the awareness level and timing on stock price is. I've been watching for news and overlooked this one. The IM announcement was made back in December and it was definitely a delayed effect on that one. I simply doubt that the market is "as efficient" at times with these micros that are not well know in the institutional realm. I agree with you about the content of the article.....it is focusing on the future evolution of IFON's business as this year progresses. I do think it points to growth here. IMO, Hopeful
As much as I hate to egg Ana on, this is pretty significant press coverage for the pip-squeak IFON. It may not still be a pip-squeak a year or so from now.
It's my fault. I'm proving my age more each day. I teach college and I'm always telling students to make sure their cell phones are on silent during class. This morning my cellphone alarm clock went off during Sunday School. So, I'm on somewhat of a roll today. When I just went back and looked over the string again, I don't know how I screwed up it either. Please excuse me, pal.
Well, I was just offering my thoughts FWIW. If you consider them worthless, that's okay by me. The funny thing is that I sure hope we see the 3.06 and 4.38 levels too.
Perhaps you might read what I said again. I already stated I'm a fundamentalist, and I don't think I said anything that questioned Pphire's charting skills. I just spoke about the difference between expressing a very confident opinion (even one supported by experience) vs. expressing certainty. If you think those thoughts are irrelevant to the board conversation, again, it's okay by me. BTW, I don't like gambling, so you'll have to take someone else's money, friend.
I'm not attacking you by any means. I've posted here occasionally and am long....even though I am a fundamentalist. FCEL trades well above its book and has to make big earnings to create significant eps due to the large number of shares outstanding. It's not a "normal" fit for my approach to investing. However, FCEL appears to be the most fundamentally sound company (just compare to PLUG fundamentals, for example, where the last financial filing to the SEC states plainly that it only has ample liquidity to get it into its fiscal second quarter, meaning more dilution is coming, IMO,.....further, PLUG sports a persistent NEGATIVE gross margin) in a red-hot sector. On that basis, I've put money into FCEL and believe it can see much higher prices.
Here's what I'm thinking. While I find your posts interesting, I've found when any person reflects strong certainty, as you are trying to express by establishing charting as a science, a humbling experience usually follows.....I say that from personal experience. If a person has never been humbled by the stock market, he/she will be if they stay with it long enough.
Any company faces risk that is not systemic.....meaning a company-specific event, yet unforeseen, that changes everything for the worse. Further, fundamentals always matter. If you don't have the money in the bank that you need anytime you need it, it does not matter how pretty the "picture" is up to that point. You can throw the notion of science out the window in such a situation.
So, I like your posts....I benefit from your technical expertise. However, "IMO," you are still expressing "opinions" based on what may very well be statistically significant trading patterns. Yet, even if you want to call it science, there's always a margin of error and I suspect that margin is much higher when talking about the certainty of chart-predicted outcomes relative to predicting many other non-related issues. Humility always serves us well.