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Brekford Corp. Message Board

hopeful200 415 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 25, 2015 11:41 PM Member since: Nov 21, 2000
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  • Reply to

    KTCC earnings next week

    by bodybag2006 Apr 24, 2015 3:30 PM
    hopeful200 hopeful200 Apr 25, 2015 11:41 PM Flag

    IMO, what happens after the report entirely hinges on outlook. That is, expectations for this quarter are not driving us up but expectations for what management is going to say about the 4th quarter and fiscal 2016. This 1 +1 = 4 does not imply slow growth. Unless something has changed significantly in company visibility since the last CC, why do you expect the company to disappoint leading to the kind of price drop you suggest is feasible?? KTCC was also $13 in the past too and now has prospects of hitting far higher revenue and eps levels than at that time, IMO, with this recent acquisition. It was a game changer per management. I'm inclined to believe them.

    P.S. I would love to get to double down in the 8s.

    IMO,
    Hopeful

    ......

  • Reply to

    hard to start a position down here?

    by cragi Mar 18, 2015 2:10 PM
    hopeful200 hopeful200 Apr 25, 2015 8:39 PM Flag

    mrkory,
    Your points are things important to research before considering any company. If you look at SGMA's collection history, it is excellent (high quality clients). This points also to the conservatism of the company. Inventory management also appears conservative over time if you go back over the flow history of inventory levels to cost of goods sold and review history of any prior write-offs. The Spitfire acquisition has proven accretive.

    I can't say beware of SGMA at this level and don't understand this remark relative to where SGMA's valuation sits presently....I consider that remark to reflect a lack of research on the company. SGMA is a great investment opportunity from time to time if one does his/her homework, which includes reviewing historical trends.
    SGMA is not a stock I want to buy at 11.....but when this stock falls back in the 5s where it was not far back, if you acquire at that level and have some patience, you will make good money. History says you will. The 7s are a great buy still but not as good as the 5s and 6s, of course. My average, this time is the low 6s; If it goes to the 9s, I've made 50% and I've had many successful rounds with SGMA over the years.

    It's always a matter of "where" you enter stocks. When you buy more than your money's worth, you are going to do well. Your buyer beware is premature, IMO, and I believe when we go forward a bit, this will be borne out. Look at the charts, including the maximum period chart. On the one year chart, you can see that the stock got too cheap in the 5s and it has reversed course. Also, the last earnings report showed unusual management optimism for earnings performance expectations. Making money in the stock market is both science and art. You have to get that sixth sense for where to buy.....you have to observe a lot of history and go with what has consistently been borne out before. You can't just go with P./Es.

    IMO,
    Hopeful

    .....

  • Reply to

    Adding to position

    by antiquecar1930 Apr 23, 2015 4:41 PM
    hopeful200 hopeful200 Apr 25, 2015 7:22 PM Flag

    There's always motive, IMO. That motive can be ethical or unethical. I suspect this poster is working for personal reasons or for some party to use every means at their disposal to shake out shares for accumulation purposes, knowing that the outlook is very strong here and that outlook drives stock prices. This is a time to be patient, but during periods of patience, there often is little buying (mostly waiting). So, it doesn't take much selling and bashing by a party intent on accumulating a big position to remove shares from the "I want it right now, or something must have gone terribly wrong since the price is falling" crowd. I'm sure this person would love to get the price to .07 and gobble up everything attainable. Or, one can alternatively believe that a party shows up on message boards to rescue people from losing their money. Ponder that a moment.
    IMO,
    Hopeful

    ....

  • Reply to

    Longs are getting excited.

    by ppx360 Apr 24, 2015 5:32 PM
    hopeful200 hopeful200 Apr 25, 2015 7:14 PM Flag

    Yea, that was a humdinger of a tough lesson, morecabbage:-)

  • Reply to

    Longs are getting excited.

    by ppx360 Apr 24, 2015 5:32 PM
    hopeful200 hopeful200 Apr 25, 2015 1:28 PM Flag

    maybe.....just maybe.....shorts have learned not to hold....well, let me say maybe they've learned "to fold" before earnings.

  • hopeful200 hopeful200 Apr 25, 2015 1:27 PM Flag

    since when has IFON not been silent??

  • Reply to

    concerned?

    by todd_atwood Apr 24, 2015 11:52 AM
    hopeful200 hopeful200 Apr 24, 2015 2:59 PM Flag

    I've seen it numerous times; shorts are just as savvy as longs; a low-float stock can be manipulated easily. The only hard information for rational pricing of a stock is the net asset base and the outlook for that base. The outlook here is strong and there's a strong fundamental base underlying it.

    IMO, shorts got caught on this one; the quarter was very good and the stock started to advance as soon as the stock opened after the report. I think there was additional short selling (numbers won't be available to confirm for a while yet) the day after the report and following to not only keep the price from getting away from them (shorts) but to push this thing down where they can cover gradually and get out of Dodge while the getting is good.

    Today won't put this theory to the test, but proof will exist in coming weeks as numbers become available on short interest and further stock price history develops. Again, I put my theory to practice today by adding again. Let the shorts sell to me here.....remember "buy low....and...?"

    IMO,
    Hopeful

    .....

  • Reply to

    hard to start a position down here?

    by cragi Mar 18, 2015 2:10 PM
    hopeful200 hopeful200 Apr 24, 2015 2:43 PM Flag

    Well, you obviously know enough (I'm not being sarcastic but complimentary) to evaluate a balance sheet. Look at SGMA's balance sheet and evaluate and see whether your concerns over its book value are warranted. You already know my conclusion.

  • Reply to

    concerned?

    by todd_atwood Apr 24, 2015 11:52 AM
    hopeful200 hopeful200 Apr 24, 2015 2:09 PM Flag

    You and this conversation are not dealing with facts. Short interest went up; that's a fact. We broke through the 50 day MA; that's a fact....and we are likely dealing with technical selling here. The report was mixed but strong YOY improvements are occurring; that's a fact. The outlook is very positive; that's a fact. The price is moving against the facts; facts are useless to bashers and cheerleaders. And to think, I just took up for you. I won't make the mistake again. It's fine to dislike RCKY....you are entitled to that. But to deny that this company is genuinely experiencing improving performance that is noteworthy.....that's shameful. Purely shameful. To say that a jump in price has been unwarranted....unbelievable remark, even from you.

    I've always stated facts for better or worse. I added again today in the 19s because the "facts" say that the market is working against the reality of the business at this moment. Facts will win out too, IMO. So, for better or worse, I put my money where my mouth is....why don't you short it here, west, since the jump was never warranted to start with??

  • Reply to

    controlled short covering?

    by hopeful200 Apr 22, 2015 12:13 PM
    hopeful200 hopeful200 Apr 23, 2015 1:38 PM Flag

    On second thought, maybe it's a short that actually agrees but doesn't like me expressing it.

  • Reply to

    controlled short covering?

    by hopeful200 Apr 22, 2015 12:13 PM
    hopeful200 hopeful200 Apr 23, 2015 1:36 PM Flag

    You know, I welcome a disagreement with my thinking but would at least like to hear the proposed alternative. What alternative explanation do you hold for yesterday's large volume and yet the price kept from running off into the 3s and not looking back?? And here we are back today where that all started from yesterday. Again, what's the alternative explanation that says you disagree....to the party that gave a thumbs down to the post as unfavorable. Disagreement is good but only when you express it? Yesterday was puzzling to say the least so have at it.

  • Reply to

    controlled short covering?

    by hopeful200 Apr 22, 2015 12:13 PM
    hopeful200 hopeful200 Apr 23, 2015 1:04 PM Flag

    Some may doubt it...but not me; yesterday was controlled short covering for sure. I wouldn't be surprised to see it again a time or two before earnings.

  • Reply to

    very good buying opportunity, IMO

    by hopeful200 Apr 22, 2015 11:50 AM
    hopeful200 hopeful200 Apr 23, 2015 12:57 PM Flag

    No, I've reviewed the financials; I see nothing that is at a level of concern. The outlook is excellent. I know you aren't going to buy here most likely since you don't like management at any price level I have seen (no offense). However, while I've surely been wrong many times, the fundamentals coupled with the chart suggest RCKY is an excellent buy right here. The 50 day is 20.94 and there is no fundamental reason for RCKY to break down technically yet. The outlook for fundamentals suggests the exact opposition. So, my bet is on a reversal very soon and a resumption of improving stock price.

    IMO,
    Hopeful

    .....

  • hopeful200 hopeful200 Apr 22, 2015 8:13 PM Flag

    positive, most definitely. I'm saying, at least for me, I would have a tough time getting the following words out of my mouth:
    "the risk here at this price level does not justify the reward." I sure couldn't say that with a straight face. I'm saying that even if the RB4 is only fractionally successful compared to its predecessors, MCZ is dirt cheap here relative to what that fractional success will mean to its numbers.
    IMO,
    Hopeful

    .....

  • hopeful200 hopeful200 Apr 22, 2015 4:28 PM Flag

    He won't answer that tracant. I asked him several times on the JAKK's board but recently meifud said something here that clued me in. Regardless, the initial post bears reading. The posts that follow bear reading too. If MCZ can handle the opportunity, RB4 can be fractionally as successful as it was in the past when meifud2 references and one would have to swallow pretty hard to say the risk here at this price level does not justify the reward.

  • Reply to

    Encouraging news

    by bluhorseshu76 Apr 22, 2015 9:10 AM
    hopeful200 hopeful200 Apr 22, 2015 4:09 PM Flag

    from what I understand, that is correct. PC Hq is, I believe, incorporating the Veloxum solution with its offering to its consumer. What ABHI's exact cut is, I don't know, but any decent dollar number multiplied times a million users will be big for the company now, IMO. If the company can just hang on with its financial situation a big longer, it looks like the money may be starting to flow in vs. just out.

  • hopeful200 hopeful200 Apr 22, 2015 3:50 PM Flag

    The market always surprises on any given day. I figured RCKY could easily achieve its prior high today and even go higher. Revenues were a tad light but that was explained well. I was excited by how much went to the bottom line this year. We invest for the bottom line and it's is looking "up." Anyway, I did at least put my money where my mouth is today. I'm going with my experience with investing over many years and, for me, today was the day to take advantage.
    IMO,
    Hopeful

    .....

  • Reply to

    JasonBonds pick

    by koolhopeful Apr 22, 2015 1:52 PM
    hopeful200 hopeful200 Apr 22, 2015 3:42 PM Flag

    First, that's very"kool" that you find me kool. Now that I'm a granddad, at least my grandson thinks I'm cool.

  • hopeful200 hopeful200 Apr 22, 2015 3:16 PM Flag

    my position is now bigger than it was before earnings; I just added another 1K around 20.80. I think this is again a great opportunity. I don't know whether it's profit-taking again today or some shorts defending turf. I noted that recently the short interest was up since that last good report.

  • hopeful200 hopeful200 Apr 22, 2015 1:21 PM Flag

    not sure about that Tab. It looks like he#$%$ still has more on the table.

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