error in prior post.....end of 1st paragraph should read "so the excess above the book value of 11M would be 11.2M....
....and, given the balance sheet reflects a total book value of about 44M, garnering 22M for about 25% of the revenue base implies that that there will be a huge gain booked in the 1st quarter of fiscal 2016, reported by May 15. In fact, assuming that Nationwide represents 25% of the book value (based on it approximating 25% of the annual revenues), that would mean that about 11M of the total 44M book value represents Nationwide. Nationwide sold for 22.2M; so the excess above the book value of 11.2M would be 11M (22.2M - 11M =11.2M).
Now, there are only 3.62M shares outstanding, so 11.2M gain/3.62M shares = a pretax gain of 3.09 per share!
The 22.2M selling price of Nationwide is a sure thing from the press release; the 11M book value of NW is my guesstimate based on the fact that NW has been running about 1/4 of the overall revenue base over the first 9 months of 2015 thus reported.....and the total book value today of PFIN is approx. 44M.
If this is anywhere close we could easily have an after-tax gain from this sale recorded in this current first quarter of 2016 (reported in May) of $2 per share or better. That alone would drop the P/E on an $8 share price to 4. It would also raise the current book value per share of PFIN from 11.96 to 13.96.
When this starts to sink in, I can't imagine the price remaining in the 8s.
Well, they say not to love stocks and I don't but I do appreciate what the management of IFON has done to help my situation. Years ago when it ran into the 30s (pre-split), I did really, really well....and I revisited it years later when if fell well below a dollar but had transitioned already from primarily a distributor to selling its own verykool brand. Since 2012, IFON has given me a quintupling based on the first major run I sold and then subsequent successes. Each time I've bought low and sold high except the last round where I bought low, I didn't sell (last summer) when it hit the 3s because I thought Ram had the business about to scale. Those interviews he did last summer made it seem the company had "arrived" but it proved premature.
So, I've got that last go round position still.....and my adding today to that position after this extended reprieve today reflects a belief that the scale Ram spoke of back in the summer (that didn't happen at that time) may be getting very close now. Those very recent articles mentioned on this board where Ram is basically teaching other CEOs how to compete globally seem telling to me....telling that he feels his experience has finally yielded the kind of successes that gives him confidence that he knows what it takes to compete.
Thanks, Info. Just for record, I've added in the 1.30s and 1.40s this week.
I've got all the VTSI I want, although it's surely an opportunity, IMO. I'm focusing on companies with the potential to really grow stock price in the near term and with the highest degree of certainty in a market that is always uncertain but really uncertain now. I'm working to overcome the setback in MCZ and make my holding there a nonissue. My focal points are NAII, IFON, KTCC, (I want to get back in RCKY pretty heavy if I can get it some lower than it is right now), (I own some CNAT from the 1.60s that Bfrnk told me of), (KPTI from the 5.60 mark), PTX from the 2 and below mark. Also, I'm easing back into PFIN based on what the news today does to imply a real value for that company. I'm trying to find companies that might hold up or defy a sour market.....and that's all I'm buying right now.
The two biotechs mentioned are cash rich, balance sheet solid companies that have been pummeled with the sector. Analysts think they are worth much more and I do too. I think bio will reverse before too long.
You decide. PFIN's market cap is in the low 30 million area. It just sold Nationwide which represents about 25% of its revenue base annually. It sold it for 22m. Well, 22M for 25% implies 88M for all of PFIN.....and the market cap is in the low 30s. My answer to the subject line question caused me to add today.
Well, the stock is so cheap on its net asset value and composition, it's not really reliant on the size of profits in this trading area. It's getting as close to a safe bet as you can find out there. With a modicum of patience anything below 10 is a steal, IMO. I also believe insiders will buy if they can get at this level in a couple of days when the insider trading window opens. IMO, Hopeful
NAII is but grabbing its breath, IMO. I think this thing has not even gotten started good. That really was an amazingly good report and says this business is booming right now, IMO.
I think it was fully expected. That's why I wrote recently that I disposed of my trading shares from the low 10s earlier when it just went back to 11.....and fortunately employed money over into BOOT in the 5s and out in the 8s.....but ready to take advantage here again more heavily if we get in the 9s. I don't know whether it will or not but at 9 bucks, you're looking at a 5% dividend; and it appears that earnings will sustain the dividend level, IMO. And RCKY will be back to 14 at sometime over the next year, IMO.
Here my background is accounting......let me try it again. Flatline .28 for four quarters and you get 1.12, not 1.04.....even better, though.
I agree with all of y'all....unbelievable. I'm pretty overweighted NAII now. But I think it remains a screaming buy at 10 and is easily worth 15 now. Given they just did .28 and are very positive sounding on the outlook, then conservatively one could flatline the .28 in an annual 1.04 eps number and with growth like this, a 20 P/E is surely deserved but a 15 P/E gets us over 15 bucks.
Pal, I can't argue with that. And, again, I concur that, looking forward, effective risk management relative to reward potential from this point would say while MCZ may have opportunity with Star Citizen, RB4, Triton's new headsets, etc., it does not have the financial flexibility to achieve its potential alone. Thus, it makes sense for Karen to try and right-size the company and put it on the market and attempt to unlock the value of its component businesses. Thanks.
As to RB4 being a lifeline, I'll confess to taking the bait from Darren hook, line and sinker. I saw what MCZ had accomplished with RB3 with far, far less involvement (revenue streams) than RB4. It seemed Darren handled the RB3 situation well and it seemed reasonable that with that "prior" experience he could manage the enlarged opportunity. Again, regardless of all else said, if he had been able to get the sales at decent margins (.17 was just horrible), the financial situation would be healed. So, again, RB4 did not become the most significant event in MCZ history from shareholders' perspective and maybe you believe shareholders shoulder the blame......but that's wrong. Darren does. Yea, we trusted him with the RB4 opportunity to restore health and prosperity here and I feel as much like kicking myself about that as the next person. But Darren again is accountable to all of us for miserably failing to perform anywhere in the ballpark of what he SAID would happen. He was persuasive enough to dupe the lenders who provided all the money needed in the face of a going concern warning back in June. Well, he duped a lot of people.
I don't think people are ignoring the facts. It's going to be a very tough situation to navigate and I think it's also time to find a buyer. Your points from a financial standing are well taken. I'm glad Karen is the one working it because she is a "money" person and understands all the numbers you state and what they spell for MCZ. She knows her task, given her background. She may not know video game technology, but you can bet she is where she is now because she understands accounting and cash flows. In other words, she's been endowed with the CEO role for "money" reasons. IMO, she would entertain the notion of the company being sold. After all, her background is not really typical of a CEO and she unlikely has that's "it's my baby" style that seemed true of Darren. MCZ could be a big stepping stone for her though if she ends up helping shareholder here....so, again, I think she would groom the company for selling.
For a long time, many here, including myself have been looking at RB4 as a "lifeline." I used that very term on this board in a subject line last spring.
Frankly, some of us just got "stuck" in this stock for a long time after selling RB3 and buying back in as the price collapsed afterwards and then got strung out by Darren's inflection point speeches. Yes, the finances continued to get tighter along the way but there was never a time to sell a whole lot of shares profitably without disrupting the price....that was my situation anyway.
Best and IMO,
DCTH has another 6 months; it doesn't have to do the reverse split imminently. This could rattle short cages enough for substantive news to move this above a buck before any split is required
I've gotten carried away too and am even heavier....avg. in the 8.60s. I was just buying at market. Hope it does as well as it deserves for this kind of performance.
Also, I disagree that this is happening because of the ATM overhang. This happened because of a huge failure to perform to expectations. And, it was underperformance to such a degree it cost Darren his job, IMO. Had MCZ live up to what it predicted, we wouldn't be having this discussion.
You'll get no argument from me except for this right and wrong business. You and I were not wrong about what was said about the outlook. Darren was and that's why he is out. He stated succinctly last spring that RB4 would prove to be the most significant event in MCZ history from the shareholder perspective. I was here for RB3 when it ran from .40 over 2 bucks. He said "most" significant....so the .40s looked pretty durn good. He was wrong and I was wrong to have had confidence in his word or his ability to deliver. How's that?
Yea, I can't believe it either...I'm back in in a big way now. This is the calm before the storm and if there are shorts on this thing or people shorting this news, look out above, IMO.