To think, someone who has avoided all the MCZ downtime could simply walk up right now and buy 100K of stock below .41.....with the knowledge that the quarter underway right this minute has been guided to be particularly a strong one in sales and that the following one should be a blowout quarter....
Sellers here deserve the price today and to witness what they accepted 3 months from now. But what a chance for a newcomer....to have avoided all the malaise, buy cheaply and wait on RB4 sales to come in.
Numbers are good, Fish. I like brockabrella's comment about what simply one additional large contract would mean relative to these clearance prices. Also, his word "overdue" is spot on, IMO.
JMO, but I don't think PFIN's performance of late is remotely factored in; growth is off the charts; the 3 acquisitions look great and the company is moving into new geographic turf. The float is so low that if this thing catches some wind, it could jump by a couple of bucks in a literal heartbeat, IMO.
The terminology FOB shipping point or FOB destination means "Free on Board, shipping point" or "Free on Board, destination." Accounting-wise, the difference has to do with where the shipper's responsibility ends. Where it ends, title passes. When title passes, the sale is booked. With FOB, shipping point, title passes when the goods are placed on the carrier by the seller. With FOB, destination, title does not pass from the seller to the buyer until the goods arrive at the buyer's location. Another relevant difference is who pays the shipping cost. FOB, shipping means the buyer pays to ship while destination means the seller pays the cost. FOB, shipping point is much more common and I would expect most of MCZ's launch shipments will be of this style, meaning revenue will be booked at the earlier date, relative to FOB, destination.
I agree Norwalkron with exception that I'm expecting a pretty significant early recognition of revenue coming in the 2nd quarter. Darren said the 2nd quarter would be a tough comp and he also stated that sales for the 2nd quarter would be particularly strong. How does one juxtapose those two contrary positions unless the RB4 early push is significant? Now, I think the blowout revenue recognition will be 3rd quarter, alright, but I don't think the 2nd quarter will amount to but just " a bit or RB4 revenues." I think non RB4 revenues will be down from last year while RB4 revenues will make up that difference and a good deal more. That would reconcile the two contrary positions.
I'm guessing we are not more than 4 weeks away from an announcement that RB4 starts to ship. That's cutting it pretty close for any potential market timer out there. And it remains that Darren stated sales will be particularly strong in the second quarter.
P.S. I just read transcript comment by Darren.... "we expect our sales in the second quarter to be particularly strong due to the initial shipments of Rock Band 4."
Further, he did state that the back half (3rd and 4th quarters) should also be better for nonRB4 sales.
JMO.....but I don't see any major selling coming from this commentary.....if so, I'll bet it's very short-lived.....we are in the 2nd quarter and he clearly stated sales should be particularly strong.
We heard the same thing. I guess I was actually relieved to hear that sales of nonRB4 product would turn up once this quarter ends. That could make for a decent 2nd quarter if RB4 early (September) shipments are strong and a very good 3rd quarter if nonRB4 improvements accompany a strong RB4 showing.
I agree on the emotions....but bfrnk, that misses my real point. My real point was analysis focused while there's a lot of emotion flying at the moment....and I found a comment about the call by Micro inconsistent with what I understood from the same call. Micro said that he was upset about the CC statement about facing tough comps ahead since last year's sales were bad.
I was saying that I understood the tough comps remark only to apply to the coming 2nd quarter (can't remember what the sales were last fiscal 2nd quarter) but that the tough comps comment did not apply to the back half of the fiscal year. In fact, I understood the CC comment to say that the back half would show improvement in nonRB4 sales.
Further, I was also trying to say I understood that RB4 could potentially much more than offset the yoy decline in nonRB4 sales for the 2nd quarter (the next report), thereby lending to a decent 2nd quarter.....then with reason to believe the back half of the year could start looking pretty durn good.
Again, I'm going to be reading the transcript to check this portion of the dialogue out closer because it has much to do with sizing up the outlook. If I did not hear this all correctly, I "want" to be set straight about the context. TIA.
There's nothing positive to elicit from this report today as to what the quarter ending June 30 produced, aside from the credit lines opened.
Micro, the remark about tough comps I believe was stated relative to the upcoming 2nd quarter only. I think the back half of the fiscal year (3rd and 4th quarters) were excluded from that remark and in fact it was stated that the back half would be better. I'll have to refer to the transcript for context, but I think this is what was stated with regard to non RB4 sales. With regard to RB4 sales, I believe that they indicated the possibility of significantly improved overall 2nd quarter sales if the product moves early enough.....meaning RB4 sales could much more than offset the decline in yoy sales otherwise. Next, it was stated that the the bulk of RB4 sales would come in the 3rd quarter with a 3 to 4 year shelf life.
The board is full of emotion at this moment and I "feel" it too. However, I hope my emotion was extracted from what I wrote in the prior paragraph. Once the transcript is reviewed, I welcome correction of the above because the entire purpose of the CC is to gain some insight. Insight is only helpful if it's based on proper interpretation. Thanks.
Looks like Automated Traffic side of business is gearing up.....revenues shy this time, but incredible gross margin improvement.....basically breakeven.....all in all, not bad, IMO.
I did not give a guess, but the result is not surprising. My guess would actually have been 10 to 12 M with a .05 to .08 loss per share. There was simply no driver whatsoever for this first quarter.
I scrolled to find information on RB4 and the only words I now read in this PR that matter with regard to whether we lose or make money on MCZ are the following:
"Strong consumer preorders" and
"Strong initial purchase orders from retailers."
RB4 remains the only major driver we've staked the future on; so these words are the big ones, at least for me.
I'll just reply once because that's all that's needed, Emory.
I'm not pleased with Darren's leadership to date. How could any long term shareholder stuck in MCZ's malaise actually be pleased? I've not said a form thing in the recent conversations specifically defending his leadership. Find one post doing so over the past year or more....just one. But hoping for his failure is equivalent to hoping investors lose their money here.
I absolutely hope too we don't lose our money but make money. I know there are some here who have been here forever (first time I heard of MCZ was around 2003 and there were MCZ haters here then) and who have hoped not only that MCZ fails as a company but also that investors lose their money. I'm surely not of that crowd! Nothing ever said here will change their behavior toward investors or the company.
But for better or worse, we better hope that Darren find some success with RB4. Enough said!
and we've learned that you can't say something once and let it be; rather you can't say something 1000 times and let it be.
17 right now; I've been scaling back the size of some positions but actually added to my PFIN. I sure hope we get some good feedback on RockBand 4 today!
I wrote a reply a while ago but it didn't post as I've checked back now.
Having owned some shares in PFIN now for a year, I was really impressed with the prior quarterly report....until this latest one. Wow.....35 cents on a big revenue increase. This company is being managed for growth well.
Anyway, even owning it from significantly lower levels than here, I added in the mid and upper 9s since earnings yesterday. This stock is cheaper than it was, IMO, given these results. It ought to be at 15 already, given these kind of growth numbers.
I actually believe MCZ could have such a day before many more weeks pass. There are some strange moves taking place. FORD, a little company that makes cell phone cases and diabetic kits, closed at .65 a couple of days ago. It reported a good quarter after the market close. The next day, on huge volume, it hit a high of 3.90, up 500% intraday.
FORD is back down to 1.15 at the close today....talk about crazy, crazy. Now FORD is a very low-float company compared to MCZ. I wouldn't mind MCZ having a crazy, crazy day in longs favor; it is beyond overdue. And actually, for a company trading where MCZ is, I don't know of another one in the entire market with a potential catalyst that "could be" as big as RB4 could be relative to MCZ's company size. Because this factor is seemingly altogether ignored presently, I could see some craziness coming here if RB4 is but mildly successful.
Micro, it was priced for growth at a bit over 3 bucks when I spoke a week ago. It is priced for complete stagnation now as it approaches a price resembling its net working capital per share. IMO, there is virtually no confidence in IFON's business model priced in now and that happened virtually overnight. The market has taken IFON in a few days from a position of solid confidence to no confidence.
A 180 degree overnight change in perception is too much, IMO, in light of a single (and surprising) one quarter disappointment, particularly consideringf the substantially enlarged credit line as of the day the poor quarter ended.....at a time when there was a zero draw against the existing credit line prior to it being raised. This incredible collapse in price has not been on significant volume either, indicating there are many holding the stock through all this.
At 3.20, I agree, there is the need for solid confidence in the business model (which I had last week before the report). At 1.20, there not such an equivalent need in order for me to believe I'll make substantial profit on a buy as it is presently heading toward a buck per share, given its very healthy balance sheet, strong financial flexibility, and the prospect that the model might prove to actually prosper yet. Ram is as knowledgeable in the space as anyone too. He's not about to call it quits, IMO with what he personally has at stake with IFON.