That's funny; what's the lawsuit can to accuse Linn of?? Causing the current oil price meltdown?? LOL. I do like the sound of desperation in the posts of shorts this evening. That bodes well. I know when I'm at ease, I'm not "searching" for things to comfort myself. That's what you are doing.
You know, it is funny to you at the moment; but just like there are long bagholders at times, there must also be short bagholders. Oil may continue down, but the significance of these deals, although expected, but today clarified, is huge in terms of Linn's balance sheet and its financial flexibility to take advantage of huge opportunities that present themselves at a time like this. I would suggest that you will become a short bagholder yourself. Anyone who has to shout in all caps is highly unsure of himself, IMO.
IMO, the news this afternoon suggests also that the divi might remain. Personally, I hope they cut the divi considerably and use the funds to take advantage of what will surely prove to be unprecedented opportunities on the cheap (company investments that will pay off for us big down the road).
clarifies greatly Linn's financial flexibility. Whether it dips or not due to oil prices, I believe this management will be highly effective at navigating this difficult time and turn into a golden opportunity for us investors. I added today in the low 9s after starting my position at about 15 (just days ago). If it drops further, and you miss out, shame on you, IMO. The pace of the price drop thus far has priced in oil that is lower than the mid 50s, IMO. Shorts will get creamed soon, also, IMO, and the news this afternoon bodes really well for tomorrow.
Thanks for the input.
I hope any delivery issues are muted. From the transcript of the last earnings call, the first question focused on the level of inventory. Darren indicated that, while working capital management drove them to see inventory come down to more desirable levels from the overhang that had previously impacted margins adversely, demand was presently outstripping supply. He also said that the inventory was literally just in time....I think he said from hand to mouth.....and there was no inventory sitting around. This would indicate a strong turnover pace this quarter unless the shipping issues you've pointed out many times compounded MCZ's struggle to meet demand.
I guess we'll see;
It seems that demand for MCZ's goods is no problem at this time. I mean, Darren and Karen gave a pretty glowing update as of Nov. 6 on the CC, which would be 1/3 of the quarter completed. Further, one would expect that the remainder of this quarter would almost have to be experiencing very strong demand given the news coming from the sector.
Your concerns about availability coupled with the low inventory level to initiate the quarter lead me to be "hopeful" for unusually strong margins (high demand relative to supply) but fearful of muted revenues for the 3rd quarter. I'm speculating that revenue will come in at 40M or less but with strong margins. I sure how I'm surprised on the revenue side, but trying to be pragmatic.
I also am "hopeful" that we will get some more pronounced guidance on the 4th quarter and fiscal 2016 on the next call. I believe this is a very realistic expectation as MCZ's visibility should be better than it has been for some time. I agree with you on the 4th quarter and beyond. In fact, I am thinking the 4th quarter will be a record 4th by a mile.
51m, 33m, 29m, 27m, and 20m
Micro, these are the rounded (lower) whole millions of inventory amounts showing on the last five 2nd fiscal quarter balance sheets. So, MCZ has something over 20M of inventory going into this 2014 holiday quarter. Starting with that 51M quarter (from the fiscal 2nd quarter report back in November of 2010), there was the initial build up of Rockband items and it took some time to work that off along with legacy items related to a console transition recently completed.
But even taking into account the riddance of potential excess inventory overhang, how do you size up potential sales in this upcoming 3rd fiscal quarter with a 20M inventory balance going into it? How do we start at that level and realize sales of 40M or better? I've been mulling this over....I'd like to get your thoughts.
you aren't following the industry very close it seems; companies are measured also by their peers; SGMA outperformed relative to reports I've read from its peers of late. Pricing pressures are across the board as well as costs associated with customers juggling inventory ordering points. No other company in SGMA's space is trading at nearly the discount to tangible net worth per share. Yet, SGMA's balance sheet is healthier, on average, in addition to having far more net asset worth per current share price. Your perspective is way out of context, IMO. I'm going with my opinion and very happy with my additions after this report. This is definitely buying "LOW."
This is a time when preserving cash is king, regardless of how relatively strong the balance sheet. CDE has a solid working capital position but a fair deal of long term debt. Even when better prices return, it will take cash to build production levels. That is, the cash to be generated will lag the cash to be expended. This is not a good time to transact business in cash for CDE or anyone in the sector, IMO. You say "when" silver is 3 times higher.....that little word "when" is a salient one.
DGLY is moving up....appears to be on information of some vague institutional interest in the stock. It's hard to believe that BFDI is available at .30; with all the new "news" coming out with regard to camera interest AND how BFDI's upfitting is increasing (profits achieved last time on strong revenues from upfitting and statements of increased contracts in that area) when you look at a DGLY. IMO, BFDI's numerous connections with government bodies have got to pay off.
Steve. It may have. I bought a stout position in the 4s, even some in the 4.30s. I sold out the other day on the run into the 5s and am waiting to re-enter. I owe my opportunity to have that profit to your mention. Thanks, dear friend.
I observed something from my silver/gold stock position, CDE. I started buying CDE too soon, not believing it could go down as far as it did. Like PVA, it is trading a mile below its tangible net assets and also has adequate liquidity to service its debt profile. I think gold and silver is putting in its bottom right now. It took quite a spell, though. I averaged down on CDE, especially buying from the 5s into the lower to mid 3s, giving me an average around 4.50. I'm going to sit on it now.....might revisit 3s one more time....not expecting it, though.
Interestingly, gold prices have started recovering while energy has been falling; I was thinking on this and formed an opinion and then got my opinion affirmed by the opinion of another in an article I read just last night...it goes like this. Gold often moves with energy prices. Gold tanked this time before energy tanked. Gold's bottoming has taken a long time and its steepest decline started before energy's really steep decline started. So, I think energy may have a bit longer to languish before putting in a hard bottom. I don't know, but I'm thinking PVA may retest its recent lows; I will start buying again there.
In the next several months, any way you slice it....I think the 4s are going to look like a bloomin' steal.
I like it now better than KTCC.....it's a lot cheaper and it's outperforming right now, as you say. I'm surprised by the muted response but none of the micro cap values are getting any love. SGMA should be back well above 10, IMO. The report was much better than I thought and the WF credit line action is a signal to of opportunity to come, I think.
This is crazy. Whoever is selling must not have read the earnings report. The .04 bottom line is NOT the relevant number!
Thanks....very good exposure. For those who want to look, you can search for "Training Simulator Leaves Officers Surrounded."
Srowe, if you read this, DiIullo was police officer for city of Scottsdale, AZ for 20 years. Prior to that, he served 4 years in the Marines (per linkedin)
Smurf, I think this CFO prefers showing more love at the earnings announcement in terms of better sales and bottom line earnings. She wants to manage our money wisely, IMO. MCZ got no bang for the buck when it put out numerous PRs months back.....PRs had ceased to move the stock price needle for some time. I, and many others I'm sure, can remember way back when MCZ would do a PR after hours and the stock trade up on volume like crazy, sending the stock on a tear. Those days ended. MCZ management could see that the PRs were doing little to nothing for the stock price.
MCZ mgt. told us they decided they could use the money saved from doing fewer PRs more effectively by applying it to activity geared to acquire more customers rather than spending it to show the love to us investors. I just hope the earnings announcement in February will finally make it worth our while.
Your argument is truly ironic.
If you are negative on CDE "today," it must have to do with your "future" expectations....right? I mean, you are clearly negative and therefore are arguing that CDE is a bad investment "today," right, based on its outlook?
Wrong. You point to the "past" to make the point that an investment here "today" is "dreaming." Why aren't you pointing to the future? Whether one has been here a long time and "hoping" to recoup, as you say, or one is just arriving to CDE, the only "relevant" moment to size up a stock investment is "now" based on where you think it's headed in the "future." You merely compound mistakes by driving in the rear view mirror.
So, why not show why CDE is a bad investment "today" based on your future expectations? Physical metals are great; you and anyone else can make that case, especially in light of currency concerns in the face of inflationary or deflationary pressures that could come to bear on paper. That does not displace the value of this paper investment in CDE, though.
Looking ahead, I see a whole lot of factors that could drive the metals much higher. I see CDE sitting near historic lows. Also, I see it sporting a very healthy balance sheet among its peers. It's financially flexible to weather a hard storm and I think the storm is mostly in the rear view mirror now. Yes, an investment in CDE at most any level since 2011 puts one in a position of trying to recoup. However, an investment now puts one in a great position to prosper enormously, IMO.
Again, for one who is likely a short betting on more destruction in CDE's price, you need to check your argument at the front door. It's not only ironic, but totally irrational. You offer no substance as to why CDE is "now"....."this day"..... a poor long term investment. If the best you can offer is the past record (of actually all gold and silver stocks), you've got nothing to say, IMO...or, at least, nothing worth hearing.
I sold some, not enough, on the run into the mid 6s; I've been reloading those today on this give-away....but still held quite a few....so got more than I really want now; could not resist today, though.