IMO, we are going to have a surprisingly good report, at least on the revenue side in November for the 2nd fiscal quarter. Analysts expect just north of 28M. My guess is much closer to 35M, perhaps better. I think a lot of this pre-order business will get booked for the quarter ending Sept. 30. Further, I think the 76+M revenue estimate for the 3rd fiscal quarter is likely missing the mark considerably. I expect something in the range of 85 to 90M, conservatively. Also, I think the eps for that 3rd quarter will be between .12 to .16, vs. the .09 projected by analysts. Based on these guesses, analyst targets of .65 and 1.00 (the numbers of the two following analysts) are absurd, IMO. I'm not going to throw out my target guesstimates just yet but will wait on the report in November to size it up better.....suffice it to say, I believe MCZ will make the analyst targets look paltry.
Remember that DR, upon announcing the RB4 partnership with Harmonix back in the spring, stated that this would be the biggest event, from a shareholder perspective, in MCZ's history. That is not appearing to be an understatement at this time. Based on the RB4's consistently high pre-order rankings (and now to shipping status), the regular appealing marketing hoopla (being in USA Today "today," for example, is no little thing and beyond what has been MCZ's prior experience) surrounding RB4, and especially MCZ's heavy role in revenue sharing (far beyond what was true with RB3), yes, I think the analysts are off the mark with this one. I would not be surprised if I'm thinking too conservatively.
Finally, MCZ's financiers are witnesses to the obvious appeal and potential at this stage of RB4. This suggests to me that they will continue to be willing backers for MCZ should RB4 demand lead to the need for more short term working capital. Both MCZ and Harmonix have already experienced some additional financial support just over the past month.
It's looking very good!
Pal, I agree with BB and the mindset that there is simply no way that warrant holders would short at the present level. As to the .41 shares purchased initially, it's plausible as I read somewhere here a while back that perhaps those shares were sold thereby removing any risk. I say thereby removing any risk because the warrants were in hand and the warrants can be exercised any time holders so choose.....that is, they can hold the warrants without risk by waiting until the price is much higher than the .61 exercise price, exercise when they desire, sell and bank profits. Also, there is much more certainty of RB4 likely producing stellar results now than when they unloaded the shares they purchased in the offering. Perhaps they would have been less hasty about selling now had they held.
Regardless, I favor the scenario that the purchased shares yielded a profit and left the holders with a risk-free option to exercise warrants with perfect knowledge of whatever return they choose to accept. Clearly a lower price would not incite exercise while a much higher price would. So, again, they sit in a great risk-free situation with opportunity to bank much profits on RB4's success. Thus, I can't agree with any notion of warrant holders shorting anywhere close to the current price level given the level of potential success this RB4 deal holds out for MCZ owners.
He's right and you know it, West. Even your disdain for RCKY can't make a valuation case against picking up shares now in the 14s. If you had any real investment interest behind your presence on this board, there's no way you wouldn't be looking at acquisition of shares at this price area. Yet, you clearly have no interest at this level or at any level. As has been stated ad nauseum in the past, you remain here for other reasons and are most visible when RCKY is doing worse price-wise.
You use the word cheerleader for the person favorable on RCKY shares. I'm trying to decide what the antithesis of cheerleader (investor) is.....if it's not "basher." Whatever it is.....it's you. You tell me, what do you call yourself? A "message board protector" guarding the potential newcomer from taking a risk with RCKY?
And I agree with Smaycs that the market is indeed the single looming issue here that could hinder RCKY being beneficial again in coming days and months....and that's across the stock realm....not just RCKY.
I'm a meaningless algorithm LOL. Actually, I appreciate your words as I take them amiably.
I genuinely have appreciated your presence on this board and believe you have been very steady in your contribution. Also, how can anyone disagree or blame you for stepping out. Believe me, the thought has crossed my mind more than once or twice. But it got so durn low so quick. Additionally, this is a rare event in my investing experience where a company seems so close to becoming something much greater....and yet living at the moment on life-support. I've been thinking it seems if the story is real that someone would step up with some money to finance this thing until it can breathe on its own and prosper. Hopefully, this press release today will prove noteworthy for the company's future....."legitimately" noteworthy. We'll see.
Please continue posting here, pal.
Actually, I appreciate your insights blu and I don't think others here are any different than you. Just because you sold the other day doesn't mean until that time you weren't of the same mindset as everyone else here holding shares. I mean who is it anywhere who owns shares of a company and doesn't want some good news?
Whether you should have seller's remorse is yet to be seen because we indeed know little about today's news but hopefully it will turn out to be positive for investors. I had, and have, no problem with you interjecting concerns over this Pioneer....we need to know facts always because there's no way to judge anything without honest facts. But I do have a problem with you having been invested here, having sold and then telling former shareholders in arms that they are being "cute" about wanting to believe today's news is good news. How is that being cute....I call it being normal.
My guess is to instill some confidence among us investors. I refreshed my understanding of a term sheet again just now by reading at Investopedia. It seems the press release today suggests that the terms of the deal are agreed upon (the intention of a term sheet to work out details) thus far but it is not yet a binding agreement. The market may not be prepared to give ABHI any benefit of the doubt until more is known. It sure seems like that from the response to today's news.
Well, I speculated on a 2 week window for shipping back in late August and got this one right.....good confirmatory news today.
RB4 eating GH's lunch? Everything I check indicates that RB4 pre-orders are going much better that GH pre-orders. An early article on the market for this music genre predicted the total market would $400M with GH taking 60% and RB4 taking 40%. It seems the 60% is more likely going to RB4 at this juncture, IMO.....perhaps even higher than that.
Wow, can you imagine what it would mean to MCZ's numbers if the total market proves better than 400M and RB4 takes 60 to 70 percent of it?
That CapitalCube is all over the place. I've seen a zillion of those earnings reviews toward companies....I mean a slew of them. I'm not sure why they are generating them other than for their own business benefit. The earnings reviews they do are not forward-looking. Anyway, if there's some motive for doing one on MCZ, then this group has got a boatload of motives to explain toward other companies.because these things are a dime a dozen relative to how many they churn out.
That initial post about msn e-mail should be one of the most embarrassing posts ever made on any message board and I'll bet the poster doesn't yet even realize why. Wow....scary the people who get involved with stock investing at times.
YW and I'm definitely going to check out NAUH after reading your description here. Thanks for your posts over at MCZ......we are finally going to see a payday....and looks like a potentially big one!
....very much like SGMA. Glad you got in, because it really is way overdue; has had recent performance go unrewarded too long. Outlook sounds bullish and they are just days from end of fiscal 1st quarter so they know what's in the bag already...and they tend to be conservative. "Alerts" are great; got my alert of earnings through Seeking Alpha. You got ahead of me; I grabbed what I could at 6.10, 6.20 and 6.24....paying well above my average price on existing shares. So, I really got a gut feel that recent performance + outlook is going to move us forward now. This stock could easily trade at 8 bucks, IMO. It has far better equity than most and good earnings and earnings potential. All the best to you, my friend.
There's no better investment, IMO, than MCZ right now in terms of potential near term return! I realize there's probably little tolerance for other stocks to be mentioned too. Yet, my practice is to always remain diversified with my portfolio and include several, several companies that have deep value that have the financial positions to stand in the face of down or up markets. NAII has been running in place for a long time, trading below tangible equity, with tons of cash, no debt and consistently profitable. However, profits over the past year are strengthening and today the outlook was bullish sounding. If it garners attention, it could rise significantly, IMO. I have no idea whether it will at this exact time, but that's why I mention, especially for anyone who likes to keep some deep value in your portfolio. FWIW.