As to the upcoming quarter, Ram gave no immediate guidance I could read from the last earnings report. So, it's a quarter without direction for me.
I think the breakdown below a buck with volume is a technical drop based on people not seeing the next catalyst right now.
The good: Ram has succeeded in saving a flailing distribution company by transforming to a proprietary phone dealer. I think he's a pretty good CEO in a very competitive business....who has seen moderate success within a short time frame (about 4 years) after ceasing the distribution business. It seems he is again trying to do somewhat of a transformation, honing the business for a higher ticket phone offering and modifying the geographical components.
The bad... I think Ram has done a really poor job of timing his public remarks about the company's condition (as he did last summer) or with regard to giving advice to other entrepreneurs as he did shortly before the most recent report. The timing almost seemed deceptive although I don't believe he intended to deceive....but it wasn't thought out well, IMO. And I "felt: deceived this time!
Another issue is whether Ram is listening to his BOD....don't even know enough to have an opinion there.
I'm already more proactive about investing in the market climate of this past year. I lightened up some with IFON the day before earnings when it oddly took off, put it to work elsewhere....then, believe it or not (hard to believe, I know because it was so low), sold the rest at an average of about 1.10, again to position to a couple of others with better chances of near-term significant moves. Being unhappy with Ram helped this decision.
Story not over though......I transitioned some back to IFON on Thursday when I saw it sink suddenly to .85....bought at .84 and .82....will continue to add on any decline as now it's well below tangible book and buying sub buck always pays off.
I enjoy your posts here. The current one is no exception. The similar (revenue) recent earnings report of DGLY compared to BFDI is surely an interesting observation for two companies in the same arena.
I sure don't want to detract from your post because it is spot on. I would just tack on a couple of factors but these additions would affirm your price tag of at least .50 for BFDI to be comparable to DGLY's 4.78 price ticket today. You providing the P/S of both BFDI and DGLY is useful in bring an apples to apples comparison since the Total Price to Total Sales is the same as the current market cap to total sales. That is, the P/S ratio recognizes the impact of share count outstanding while a simple comparison of $4.78 to .16 is not an apples to apples comparison since DGLY has 5.25M shares outstanding while BFDI has 44.63M shares outstanding.
Right now the market cap of DGLY is a bit over 25M and BFDI's market cap is just over 7M......so BFDI would have to go up 250% to boast a 25M market cap. That would put BFDI's stock price at:
.16 + (.16 x 2.5) = .56.
So, .50 is pretty conservative if we use DGLY as a model.
DGLY does have more equity per share; looking at its balance sheet changes from 2013 to 2014 to 2015, it appears that DGLY issued more stock at perhaps opportune times.....so its balance sheet is stronger than BFDI's but BFDI is clearly outperforming DGLY, even considered BFDI's lower margin upfitting component....and BFDI's balance sheet has been steadily improving after Baltimore. BFDI is clearly the better managed business, especially from a finances vantage point.
I will say that I hope DGLY wins its lawsuit against TASR for TASR's anti-competitive (perhaps illegal) tactics for restraining companies like DGLY and BFDI from gaining entry to the body-worn camera world.
Borg has not sold since March 14 even though his beginning of month form 144 leaves some shares still eligible for putting up for sale. I wonder if he was privy to the patent infringement settlement coming and, if so, perhaps that stopped his selling. After all, he does still own 12%, making him a beneficial owner and company affiliate. This settlement news seems pretty significant to a novice like me and I'm thinking maybe Borg's pause in selling may be saying the same.
BTW, I didn't say I'm betting on KM to be successful; that's an unknown for now and she's certainly got a challenge before her.....but I sure hope she succeeds. If Darren was facing this same challenge, I'd mentally be writing MCZ off, but I believe Karen will do whatever she possibly can to turn things around and I believe lenders will be inclined to work with someone who shows the fortitude and strength to make necessary choices on a moment's notice. JMO
Hey Fish; that's timing! I just finished running a few numbers and came here to post. So, I'll post as a response to you.....I'm well and hope you are too!
The report looks good. It seems that 19 to 20M is BFDI's current breakeven point, because that's where they are across the past year and CB states in the release today that 2016 should be a breakout year for them. They say also the company is in advanced conversations with international opportunities in Columbia and Paraguay and are in talks with "hundreds" of prospects domestically.
I had to do some parsing to come up with the 4th quarter key numbers:
Revenue for quarter 4 appears to be 5.267M as compared to last year's 3.790M;
Net income is 27K compared to last year's 265K net loss.
The balance sheet is getting better by the quarter and the equity has turned positive as has the net working capital. So, the company is not only on the cusp of profitability.....it is on a much better financial footing than it was for the longest following Baltimore.
I would say the report is very encouraging. At a minimum, this report should stop the selling and put a floor under the stock price. The company is finally in a good place, it seems....restored balance sheet and ample opportunity for growth.
This voluntary withdrawal from the TSX, by itself, is a fairly trivial act but what is says about Karen is all but trivial.....and what it says about Darren in comparison to Karen is significant, IMO. He was a spendthrift with shareholder resources....she is a miser. She is a far superior steward for shareholders, IMO. Also, she said she wants to ultimately reward shareholders, something Darren rarely even alluded to being concerned with. Given what she stepped into now as CEO, why wouldn't she consider leaning the company and marketing it. If she could navigate a sale of MCZ and garner enough proceeds to help heal some investor wounds, she'd be a hero with most shareholders and have made her name across the industry for bringing a company back from the brink. On the other hand, she could have her heart set on being a long-term CEO determined to rebuild a company from almost scratch. With her CFO background, my bet is on the former plan.
I'm not sure. We had major institutional dumping that drove us below a buck.....it was too much and too fast which prompted my very first post in this string. Even with their dumping, PTX had to bounce back....simple supply and demand. Seven straight days of pounding it down is about the limit on consecutive days I've long observed over the years. But it's had a very strong bounce for a few days and that could have been in the face of more institutional selling.
All this is why I only repurchased 10% of my original position. I think the 1.10 area may give some support to enable the stock to try and close its gap in the mid 1.50s, but I'm not sure enough of it to recommit heavily again. But, remember, I'm biased because I've already bagged a great profit and am being protective. Anyway, that's the best thoughts I have. The stock should rebound toward the middle 1s easily if the unbridled sellers are nearing share exhaustion....but that's a big unknown. If they want to unload a position, they don't care what the price is.....they just house clean.
No, Tab. I still have plenty of MCZ shares. The lemonade for me out of the lemon that was a RB4 bust is that it drove me to be much more active in shopping and managing my portfolio choices and it has worked out well enough to basically turn MCZ into a non-event and I'm really feeling most fortunate. I'm just glad there have been some NAII's in the world.
I don't want the ship to sink with MCZ but I didn't want to be counting on it to succeed with its attempted "going lean" and turnaround. So, I'm keeping shares but got very proactive elsewhere.
MCZ's balance sheet has been very strained for quite a while and Karen has her job cut out for her. RB4 could have been huge for MCZ but I don't think the opportunity was well-managed at all. But it was an attractive potential driver and IMO, bfrnk is very fortunate he sold when he did and, if I were in his shoes, I'd be very thankful and humble, wiping the sweat off my brow about it. You can't take risk out of stocks. The buy decision is easier than figuring when to sell. ANYTIME you sell at just the right time, you are very fortunate because timing a sell is abstract relative to timing a buy.
And bfrnk has also faced before what we are facing with MCZ.....that is owning a stock believing that one thing would happen when it went very much the other way. Bfrnk, I hope you'll read this too and leave your opinions as adequately stated finally concerning MCZ. Enjoy your decision there; it proved a good one....but you are a shareholder in the stock market just like all of us. We are people first....not investors first.
Investors don't make companies succeed or fail either. Management is responsible for company performance and they get paid well to work FOR shareholders. So shareholders, IMO, take the real risk and we should all be pulling for each other. That's my position, anyway. I hope Karen is successful!!
I'm more than happy with the profit and have learned to walk away. However, it if happens to dip to 1.12 or less in the next 2 days, I will rebuy a good number.
just unloaded the boat in the 1.40s today.....My opinion is that it will close the gap at 1.56 and test the 1.70 level soon. But I had over a 50% return since the 18th, just the end of last week, on a lot of shares....had to take it and shop elsewhere for now... I'm going to miss out on some more move, I just know it, but am purposely acting on the conservative side with profit-taking in this fickle market. JMO. Hopeful
P.S. If Borg does become more patient, maybe we'll get another liftoff pretty soon because it sure looks like a screaming buy here, IMO.
I agree, dalton. And it's interesting that I haven't seen a filing for a week now from him so maybe he has decided to be a bit more patient. I just wonder who else is selling.....I would still guess that whoever is selling is doing so more out of concern over Borg than over NAII's business. IMO, Hopeful
You've got to admit.....you simply "ask for it." You aren't trying to help anyone. I've found that the only people who really bother with selecting the sentiment option on their posts are people who have a financial position. You state you are a strong sell and I believe you have a vested interest in seeing the price go down. So, your first mission is not helping other people.
I don't state my sentiment and am actually an objective person by choice because it's much easier to seek self first. I've recently bought SDOC and realize it's a bet. I don't put my sentiment on stocks because my desire is not to persuade anyone else to do anything other than what they decide to do with their own money. What decent person wants to prosper by persuading another to do other than what they individually choose to do with their own money?
We all have opinions and that's what the message boards are for....honing opinions via healthy debate. The market makes kings of us sometimes and idiots of us at others....for exposing our opinions. Yet, actually, companies determine what happens to their investors.
Now to the point.....you've clearly got a mission to persuade us to sell and drive the price down for some sort of self-gain. In fact, you did state that if bankruptcy was not the outcome of the company's last correspondence, you would exit. I read it here. Now you say the stock price proves bankruptcy. So, the bottom line for you getting slapped upside the head is you clearly have zero integrity and flaunt that. Whether the company goes bankrupt or succeeds, you redirected the commentary to avoid the clear fact that you were wrong about what the company would say most recently and you are unable to admit that and exit.
exactly what purpose do you see yourself as serving on this board?? I'll disagree with you about the short term and suggest we will see several days, including today, of green. The longer trend from here is debatable, but the near term is a matter of supply and demand. The supply of shares has been overwhelming demand for the prior 7 straight trading days. I think the supply is even there again today but less committed now and the demand is starting to come in and will correct the imbalance. Any pullback right now will be quickly absorbed, IMO. Again, my view is that we are heading north for several days. JMO, Hopeful
This news on the patent settlement via licensing NAII's blockbuster product is huge. NAII can now expand its reach via licenses where future infringements are seen as cut and dried infringements. The only way to gain access is pay NAII for the license. I've been waiting for this matter to be resolved. Read the CEO's words today. He's clearly ecstatic about the possibilities!!
I have no dog in this fight with USO so at least my post is an objective opinion.....only worth an opinion, but at least not biased by a self-interest here. There's been an accepted premise in the stock market for many years now that the market will react at least 6 months in advance. Well, it will take much longer than 6 months for redeployment of capital assets necessary for raising the supply of oil and gas. It can't happen overnight. But it must start happening well in advance of a glut becoming a dearth.
The historic decline in exploration domestically and stacking of rigs will surely lead to a glut turning toward a dearth faster than many expect, IMO. Add to that any move by OPEC to contain the spigot and things can change in a hurry.
The market is forward looking and I believe it is already directing its attention toward the end of this year relative to its current pricing of crude. Further, I believe the bottom was set in the 20s recently and I doubt we'll see that again for quite a while. We'll keep hearing about the current glut; I'm confident of that but, again, the market will observe the demand-supply situation in advance in terms of pricing the underlying commodity. So, one can say that there is a big oversupply of oil today and one would be right; but that does not mean the person will be right to conclude that oil must therefore resume its price decline.
JMO and FWIW,
Hudson; I understand your feelings completely, pal.....been there and done that, pal, and there's no absolute way of avoiding it when we are in the stock market. The market never ceases throwing us curve balls and humbles us all. My background is that of a college accounting professor and CPA (retired status now).
I strongly refer to the balance sheet in determining an entry point today for stocks. CNAT, for example, is trading at its tangible equity per share from the balance sheet. That helps support the notion that the price is getting really low now and the science is being valued as worthless. Of course, cash burn will deplete the equity per share unless the company can raise additional equity capital at at least the current price point or better. Probably the only form of debt capital that can be raised would be convertible debt which has its concerns. The convertible holders have too much control as a general rule. So, I'm also hoping you are wrong about the 2.5 years because it will be better for both of us. If the investment mood does not improve soon for biotech companies, they will be in a similar boat with oil and gas drillers.....in financial distress and desperate for capital. The good thing is that the demand for drug development is not a demand for a commodity and hopefully the low bio prices out there will create a lot of new demand soon.