I'll be the first to say.....I can say something with absolute certainty. You are a bloomin' idiot when it comes to valuation. I'm a retired accounting professor and a CPA of many years. This company has more in current assets on the 12/31/14 balance sheet than ALL of it liabilities, including the convertible debt. Said another way, it has enough net working capital to pay off all long term liabilities. Yes, with absolute certainty, I can say you, my friend, are an idiot on valuation matters to make the statement you did (please don't be so foolish to say it again with more certainty) and should never ever write another article in SA or anywhere. Your humility after MAT's results just turned into shameful (and embarrassing) pride.
IMO, you will leave money on the table. What's driving RCKY is why you invest in low-float small cap stocks. Insiders have a 2 to 3 week window following earnings when they can sell and that's it. Investors know this and some selling should be expected. However, RCKY got a real catalyst with this last report coupled with a good outlook that we have reason to believe is improving due to the massive cold in much of the U.S. So, it has got the market's eye and I don't want to abandon too quickly. This is why we invest....what we wait on happening. So, I don't want to over-expect, but I don't want to be overly conservative either. Earnings are driving the price now and the projected EPS numbers and projected growth for the same argue for a fair value much closer to 30 than to 20.
You've hit the nail on the head; deteriorating performance and liquidity explains the convertible's existence and improving performance and liquidity will explain the convertible's demise, IMO.
If you respond to my friend, Uptabdowntab, I have to go on record that I find a case (you acknowledge) of weaker sales in 2015 serving as an explanation for the stock being down today a most difficult, even impossible, case to defend.
JAKK's stock price in no wise adjusted properly for the 3rd quarter results. It should have been at least 9.5 going into the quarter today. Weaker margins was the excuse in the 3rd quarter thrown about here right after 3rd qtr earnings for what happened.....and today it's the slightly lighter revenues next year being bandied about.
Remember today was a huge revenue beat, the earnings was a huge beat, next year's projected margins and earnings are a positive surprise......so I'm no more willing to buy the pitiful argument that the slight revenue downward adjustment for next fiscal year offsets the otherwise massive positive performance surprises than I am to believe that weaker margins last quarter offset the otherwise massive performance revealed then.
Just consider the "concern" expressed at the 3rd quarter report about what weaker margins suggested about future margins, even though management plainly said last time that margins would improve. AND THEY DID. BTW, management clearly indicated today that there could be upside to guidance. In light of margins today, I wouldn't bet against better than projected revenue for 2015.
Uptab, I was just fixing to post a last time today with a subject of "Beyond Bizarre"
the report today:
sales a year ago 137M; sales today 254M
eps a year ago -.73; eps today .11
outlook for next quarter....solid improvement YOY
outlook for the next year....better eps on less revenue......meaning much better margins
stock price reaction......down 10%
YEA, THAT'S LOGICAL
Tab, I can't explain the convertibles in a few short sentences.
I believe there are hedge funds involved in the convertible arbitrage here. The company performance has been strong enough to overthrow the threat of dilution via conversion....but these shorts are entrenched....clearly.
I would defer to Aeiish to respond to you if he's reading as he has a better history with JAKK than me.
Even with the convertible-related short position, I cannot explain the bizarre reaction to absolutely mind-blowing results here.
it's joelb at jakks dot net
Joel Bennett is the CFO's name. The contact information is at the company site.
You and I and all shareholders know they are already painfully aware of the convertible and shorting situation whether they hear from us or not. However, management, as the agent for owners has a fiduciary responsibility to shareholders, and sometimes we probably should express ourselves. At the conclusion of the CC today, management invited shareholders to call or contact them with any questions/comments dealing with the quarter.
I wanted to express congrats for the very solid quarter and took opportunity to express the notion of settling the convertibles. I've rarely witnessed a situation where convertible debt doesn't act as an albatross on share price.....and I certainly believe it's an albatross on JAKK's share price big-time.
I agree with the latter part of your post but surely take issue with your logic:
Not manipulated.....come on, are you for real???
Have no cash.....they not only have cash, they have abundant working capital. Sales growth always precedes earnings growth. Today was great news for cash....again, come on, get real.
Tepid guidance......we could see .75 eps on 740M is sales.....Hello, the stock price is $6.42
Mgt. is bad......I thought they did a fine job on the call; I assume you didn't listen to the same call (there was no lack of optimism
I e-mailed the CFO after the CC and requested that everything possible be done to pay off the convertibles now. He replied; of course, he couldn't say what the company will or won't do, but he did acknowledge my note. You can write him too as can any shareholder.
That is not accurate. JAKK's 3rd quarter is its holiday sale quarter. It books when shipped to the retailer. Receivables are anomalous this time because the 4th quarter was so massive relative to the past. Again, JAKK's holiday sales quarter does not coincide with the retailer toy business.
Perverse is an excellent choice of words, Heir. I'm glad you got the discount too. I added (I hope for the last time) 5K more just now at 6.36.
This has nothing to do with praise or emotion. It has to do with value. This company is valuable on a balance sheet basis, trading at a low multiple of book. It is trading cheap on forward earnings. If it does .71 (low end) of earnings next year, you calculate the P/E.....it's low! It is trading ridiculously cheap on any financial performance-based metric you can find. That's fact, not emotion.
If you've decided the guidance today merits what's happening to stock price....that is, that shorts have it right, I've got a bridge for you....
I'm frustrated too, but I intend to come out smelling like a rose before all is said and done because I'm sticking to the valuation FACTS. I'm sure not give my shares away to these idiots to cover their abusive positions. It will happen to them soon enough.
This exhibit is HUGE. I heard that 80,000 show up for it and the square footage of exhibition is massive. VTSI had to get great visibility and contacts. Selling the stock here or anywhere remotely close to this price is absolutely crazy, IMO.
I really do see the shorts entrapped....not "getting" entrapped....but "already" entrapped. They've had some fun....but I think longs are going to end up having much more fun when the tide reverses for good....and I really believe it's going to do that because we are witnessing true market inefficiency right now and have been for some time leading up till now. That inefficiency will be corrected. The market is irrational at times, but not stupid.
....it's funny, they can stretch to find some illusory problem with performance to manipulate stock price over.....IMO, their real problem is what has been mentioned several times already in different form; that is, the windfall of cash in the outlook spelled out by the level of A/R. Their days are clearly numbered before the stronghold is broken by paying them off for good.
I absolutely concur that JAKK should do that....whatever it takes to pay off the convertibles (aside from doing another convertible, of course).
I really think the selling will dry up.....it has to have reached an exhaustion level in light of the last 2 reports and continuing expected overall improvement in business. This rubber band has been stretched to the limit, IMO.
You would think that the market believes JAKK ought to be punished for having Frozen!
This is all about the convertibles, IMO.....it is not about the company or its performance.
It may not, but this stock really should finish well UP today. As bizarre as things have been, who knows? Sooner or later, though, the dam will break, IMO.