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Perceptron, Inc. Message Board

hopeful200 396 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 30, 2015 8:06 PM Member since: Nov 21, 2000
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  • hopeful200 hopeful200 Apr 30, 2015 8:06 PM Flag

    Well, bottomsupinvestor, there seems to be less agreement with my thoughts. That said, a person has to follow his convictions about stock fundamentals, etc.

    I think KTCC has turned another corner in its history. Whether via acquisition or organic increase, offsetting declining business from a couple of major customers is not something management needs reprimand for, IMO. Many managers just sit on their laurels and show no aggressiveness when uncontrollable events come along.

    As to KTCC's stock price history, when I came to KTCC in mid 2006, the stock price was about 3.75. Today, it's 11.95. The S&P was about 1300 in mid 2006; today it's about 2085. If I had just bought and done nothing till now, I certainly would have outperformed the market considerably. So, KTCC has done well over the past decade as an investment. KTCC has provided one ability to make a lot whether he/she bought and held or traded. It was in the 4s as recent as January of 2012.

    I think the Ayrshire acquisition was brilliant and a great move by management for shareholders at this time. For their sector, KTCC has very decent margins; low margins are part of a business like this; KTCC will never be for investors looking for stout margins.

    KTCC turned a corner in January 2012; IMO, it's turned another one where Ayrshire will take it to another tier of revenue and earnings potential.

    I completely understand disagreement with my optimism....but I believe it's time to abandon the pessimism....at least for me. We should be looking at 500M in revenue this year and hopefully a lot more next year. Get to 2 bucks eps or better in 2016, we might see $30 or better.

    IMO,
    Hopeful

    .....

  • RCKY is very strong right now; it has 18.52 in net asset worth; majority of that is tangible; strong working capital position....pays a dividend.....is experiencing ramp in earnings growth.....outlook is strong while P/E remains below projected earnings growth rate.

    RCKY is in the sweet spot here; I earlier said before last earnings report that 27 seemed attainable; well, after the last report.....30 seems attainable now. We've got the numbers to warrant that sticker price.

    IMO,
    Hopeful

    ......

  • Reply to

    RCKY recently at $20 was a gimmee.

    by smaycs4 Apr 29, 2015 3:32 PM
    hopeful200 hopeful200 Apr 29, 2015 11:11 PM Flag

    I did add on the price dip, significantly, and posted it amidst the posts of "being concerned" on this board. Indeed, it was a gimme.

  • Reply to

    concerned?

    by todd_atwood Apr 24, 2015 11:52 AM
    hopeful200 hopeful200 Apr 29, 2015 1:30 PM Flag

    I think shorts were picking on the wrong stock. IMO, Hopeful

    .....

  • How often do you hear this kind of talk on CCs.....people can't attend staff meeting because they are out working job quotes....

    Way to go Bill for great questions, again.

    Bill was even willing to be called Mary if that would guarantee KTCC of at least 125M of revenue per quarter from now on.

    KTCC's employee count is well over 3000 today. I'm guessing the acquired company staff are included, but , "wow," has this company gotten a lot larger since I started following around 2005 or 06??

  • Reply to

    hard to start a position down here?

    by cragi Mar 18, 2015 2:10 PM
    hopeful200 hopeful200 Apr 28, 2015 4:29 PM Flag

    So we come full circle....my whole case is that you can't just go with P/Es and you come back to "earnings" tell you the whole story. Well, let's leave it "we don't agree" that earnings tell all. If that were true, what purpose does the balance sheet serve???

    I've done really, really well off of SGMA for more than that decade but I've not done so based on earnings. I've done so based on buying it when it was being discounted to net asset value by over 50%, sometimes considerably more. It has moved back higher every single occasion sufficient to make a sizable return. I will say I don't think anyone here has consistently made money on SGMA based on following the P/E only....yet you conclude that earnings have told the entire SGMA pricing history.

    IMO,
    Hopeful

    .....

  • Reply to

    Right direction

    by chainma1l Apr 28, 2015 4:03 PM
    hopeful200 hopeful200 Apr 28, 2015 4:19 PM Flag

    What?? Guidance was for 108 to 116M on top line and .13 to .18 on bottom line.....what did they miss?

  • Reply to

    Right direction

    by chainma1l Apr 28, 2015 4:03 PM
    hopeful200 hopeful200 Apr 28, 2015 4:04 PM Flag

    outlook is good, IMO. It's a significant sequential increase range for revenue and eps.

  • Reply to

    HS LEE

    by bluhorseshu76 Apr 28, 2015 9:43 AM
    hopeful200 hopeful200 Apr 28, 2015 1:26 PM Flag

    The whole shooting match is hinged on Veloxum. It is crystal clear that ABHI sees Veloxum as their ace in the hole. Further, if they implement it successfully, it's starting to look much more positive. It seems that the risk is more from the "sufficient financing" for Veloxum end than with the "potential failure" of Veloxum. That is, if the money is there to bring Veloxum to fruition, it seems that Veloxum may indeed pay off. I sure hope so.
    IMO,
    Hopeful

    ....

  • Reply to

    ppx you're 110% right!!!!!

    by primemedical1 Apr 27, 2015 10:24 AM
    hopeful200 hopeful200 Apr 27, 2015 2:44 PM Flag

    Ok, but let me ask you something, friend. What is your view of Anabolic after 10 minutes here? Don't you think others see the same thing pretty durn quick? I don't think there's any consensual view going on here with Ana as blind leader. Most of us would choose to disdain IFON over weariness with the embarrassment of his constant clubbing postings here. That is, we would prefer not to like IFON because of his choice to control the conversation with the same thing on and on ad nauseam. Yet we believe we are in a developing company with good reason but unfortunately have to tolerate the constant nonsense. That's accurately sizing it up. I think you are worrying more about Ana than most here are. We just tune it out.

    I also think you are not just being negative but arguing the case of someone who has money to lose....makes me wonder if you are short. If you are short, why wouldn't you make a negative case....that's perfectly normal and balances the conversation here.

    As to IFON, they are working from such very small financial numbers, they don't have to capture much of anything to grow those numbers a lot. This gives a stockholder the chance to make some good money.....there's risk no doubt but the reward potential is there.

    IMO,
    Hopeful

    ......

  • Reply to

    ppx you're 110% right!!!!!

    by primemedical1 Apr 27, 2015 10:24 AM
    hopeful200 hopeful200 Apr 27, 2015 2:00 PM Flag

    You are really "workin it," aren't you. In the same way I detest Ana's activity (he can't just make an occasional good point and leave it at that), you are acting like him but the inverse part. I personally have no clue what the overall market does next and sure don't know what the momentary reaction to IFON's next report will be....and you don't either. What I do know is that when one just pounds the table with everything he/she can think of to make a particular point like you are doing, he/she is acting and sounding desperate and highly insecure of his position. Like I side, you are sounding like someone else's alter ego.
    IMO,
    Hopeful

    .....

  • Reply to

    KTCC earnings next week

    by bodybag2006 Apr 24, 2015 3:30 PM
    hopeful200 hopeful200 Apr 25, 2015 11:41 PM Flag

    IMO, what happens after the report entirely hinges on outlook. That is, expectations for this quarter are not driving us up but expectations for what management is going to say about the 4th quarter and fiscal 2016. This 1 +1 = 4 does not imply slow growth. Unless something has changed significantly in company visibility since the last CC, why do you expect the company to disappoint leading to the kind of price drop you suggest is feasible?? KTCC was also $13 in the past too and now has prospects of hitting far higher revenue and eps levels than at that time, IMO, with this recent acquisition. It was a game changer per management. I'm inclined to believe them.

    P.S. I would love to get to double down in the 8s.

    IMO,
    Hopeful

    ......

  • Reply to

    hard to start a position down here?

    by cragi Mar 18, 2015 2:10 PM
    hopeful200 hopeful200 Apr 25, 2015 8:39 PM Flag

    mrkory,
    Your points are things important to research before considering any company. If you look at SGMA's collection history, it is excellent (high quality clients). This points also to the conservatism of the company. Inventory management also appears conservative over time if you go back over the flow history of inventory levels to cost of goods sold and review history of any prior write-offs. The Spitfire acquisition has proven accretive.

    I can't say beware of SGMA at this level and don't understand this remark relative to where SGMA's valuation sits presently....I consider that remark to reflect a lack of research on the company. SGMA is a great investment opportunity from time to time if one does his/her homework, which includes reviewing historical trends.
    SGMA is not a stock I want to buy at 11.....but when this stock falls back in the 5s where it was not far back, if you acquire at that level and have some patience, you will make good money. History says you will. The 7s are a great buy still but not as good as the 5s and 6s, of course. My average, this time is the low 6s; If it goes to the 9s, I've made 50% and I've had many successful rounds with SGMA over the years.

    It's always a matter of "where" you enter stocks. When you buy more than your money's worth, you are going to do well. Your buyer beware is premature, IMO, and I believe when we go forward a bit, this will be borne out. Look at the charts, including the maximum period chart. On the one year chart, you can see that the stock got too cheap in the 5s and it has reversed course. Also, the last earnings report showed unusual management optimism for earnings performance expectations. Making money in the stock market is both science and art. You have to get that sixth sense for where to buy.....you have to observe a lot of history and go with what has consistently been borne out before. You can't just go with P./Es.

    IMO,
    Hopeful

    .....

  • Reply to

    Adding to position

    by antiquecar1930 Apr 23, 2015 4:41 PM
    hopeful200 hopeful200 Apr 25, 2015 7:22 PM Flag

    There's always motive, IMO. That motive can be ethical or unethical. I suspect this poster is working for personal reasons or for some party to use every means at their disposal to shake out shares for accumulation purposes, knowing that the outlook is very strong here and that outlook drives stock prices. This is a time to be patient, but during periods of patience, there often is little buying (mostly waiting). So, it doesn't take much selling and bashing by a party intent on accumulating a big position to remove shares from the "I want it right now, or something must have gone terribly wrong since the price is falling" crowd. I'm sure this person would love to get the price to .07 and gobble up everything attainable. Or, one can alternatively believe that a party shows up on message boards to rescue people from losing their money. Ponder that a moment.
    IMO,
    Hopeful

    ....

  • Reply to

    Longs are getting excited.

    by ppx360 Apr 24, 2015 5:32 PM
    hopeful200 hopeful200 Apr 25, 2015 7:14 PM Flag

    Yea, that was a humdinger of a tough lesson, morecabbage:-)

  • Reply to

    Longs are getting excited.

    by ppx360 Apr 24, 2015 5:32 PM
    hopeful200 hopeful200 Apr 25, 2015 1:28 PM Flag

    maybe.....just maybe.....shorts have learned not to hold....well, let me say maybe they've learned "to fold" before earnings.

  • hopeful200 hopeful200 Apr 25, 2015 1:27 PM Flag

    since when has IFON not been silent??

  • Reply to

    concerned?

    by todd_atwood Apr 24, 2015 11:52 AM
    hopeful200 hopeful200 Apr 24, 2015 2:59 PM Flag

    I've seen it numerous times; shorts are just as savvy as longs; a low-float stock can be manipulated easily. The only hard information for rational pricing of a stock is the net asset base and the outlook for that base. The outlook here is strong and there's a strong fundamental base underlying it.

    IMO, shorts got caught on this one; the quarter was very good and the stock started to advance as soon as the stock opened after the report. I think there was additional short selling (numbers won't be available to confirm for a while yet) the day after the report and following to not only keep the price from getting away from them (shorts) but to push this thing down where they can cover gradually and get out of Dodge while the getting is good.

    Today won't put this theory to the test, but proof will exist in coming weeks as numbers become available on short interest and further stock price history develops. Again, I put my theory to practice today by adding again. Let the shorts sell to me here.....remember "buy low....and...?"

    IMO,
    Hopeful

    .....

  • Reply to

    hard to start a position down here?

    by cragi Mar 18, 2015 2:10 PM
    hopeful200 hopeful200 Apr 24, 2015 2:43 PM Flag

    Well, you obviously know enough (I'm not being sarcastic but complimentary) to evaluate a balance sheet. Look at SGMA's balance sheet and evaluate and see whether your concerns over its book value are warranted. You already know my conclusion.

  • Reply to

    concerned?

    by todd_atwood Apr 24, 2015 11:52 AM
    hopeful200 hopeful200 Apr 24, 2015 2:09 PM Flag

    You and this conversation are not dealing with facts. Short interest went up; that's a fact. We broke through the 50 day MA; that's a fact....and we are likely dealing with technical selling here. The report was mixed but strong YOY improvements are occurring; that's a fact. The outlook is very positive; that's a fact. The price is moving against the facts; facts are useless to bashers and cheerleaders. And to think, I just took up for you. I won't make the mistake again. It's fine to dislike RCKY....you are entitled to that. But to deny that this company is genuinely experiencing improving performance that is noteworthy.....that's shameful. Purely shameful. To say that a jump in price has been unwarranted....unbelievable remark, even from you.

    I've always stated facts for better or worse. I added again today in the 19s because the "facts" say that the market is working against the reality of the business at this moment. Facts will win out too, IMO. So, for better or worse, I put my money where my mouth is....why don't you short it here, west, since the jump was never warranted to start with??

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