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AstraZeneca PLC Message Board

hopethishelps2 6 posts  |  Last Activity: Oct 6, 2014 11:26 AM Member since: Mar 26, 2004
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  • Reply to

    Financial statements--same old, same old

    by sunburst_mt Oct 6, 2014 11:00 AM
    hopethishelps2 hopethishelps2 Oct 6, 2014 11:26 AM Flag

    Yup, that's the BTX business model. And has been for more than 20 years. Works pretty good for management ..... for stockholders, not so much.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Reply to

    All experiments and no results

    by footlooszz Jul 31, 2014 6:42 PM
    hopethishelps2 hopethishelps2 Aug 25, 2014 10:31 AM Flag

    footlooszz, if you buy stock in companies like BTX you've got to understand the nature of the game.
    The numbers go something like this (depending which period you look at, which companies you include etc):
    Out of every 10 biotech start-ups:
    - 8 will crash and burn and the stock goes to zero.
    - 1 will make it to a useful product but early stockholders will only break even because of dilution
    - 1 will be a 10-bagger after 5 years.

    So, do the math. For every $10k you put into these companies ($1k each) you'll get back about $12k after 5 years, for an annual return of about 3.7% (3.7% compounded for 5 years gives 20% total). Of course if you are smart enough to be able to eliminate a couple of the lemons at the start, you do much better.
    The problem is that nobody seems to be able to eliminate the lemons while keeping the eventual 10-bagger. People like Patrick Cox claim to be able to, and will sell you expensive newsletters with their choices, but if you look at their track records they don't seem to be better than chance, depending on the period you look at.
    People who tell you confidently that (e.g.) "BTX will go to $10 by year's end" are either idiots or pumpers - either way, ignore them.

  • Reply to

    This will go to 2's in few days

    by crusher_for_u Aug 21, 2014 2:22 PM
    hopethishelps2 hopethishelps2 Aug 23, 2014 2:37 AM Flag

    I agree that GALT is headed down the tubes - the key reason being that management cannot be trusted. But the slide to true value will probably be slow, and punctuated by bounces in the price as seen in the last few days.
    The most important factor in valuing any company is the integrity of its management. There are dozens of ways management can rip off stockholders if they want to, and most of them are even legal. Before taking a long position in GALT or any small stock, you should be asking yourself "Would I trust these people wih my money?"

  • hopethishelps2 hopethishelps2 Aug 22, 2014 1:32 PM Flag

    He didn't refer to it as "proof". He just pointed us to some interesting research relevant to galectin. GALT is a speculative gamble, but research like this helps to assess the odds.

  • hopethishelps2 hopethishelps2 Aug 22, 2014 10:54 AM Flag

    Thing is that after the phase 1 fiasco, few people believe in GALT's product any more. Brief pops over $5 can be generated by b*s*t newsletters (no doubt Cox is still pumping it), but in the absence of positive news, GALT is headed down the tubes.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • hopethishelps2 by hopethishelps2 Aug 21, 2014 3:04 PM Flag

    NLY-PC is currently trading at $25.08 and this can only be due to investors who have not read the prospectus. NLY-PC is callable. Annaly can buy it back for $25 at any time.

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