footlooszz, if you buy stock in companies like BTX you've got to understand the nature of the game.
The numbers go something like this (depending which period you look at, which companies you include etc):
Out of every 10 biotech start-ups:
- 8 will crash and burn and the stock goes to zero.
- 1 will make it to a useful product but early stockholders will only break even because of dilution
- 1 will be a 10-bagger after 5 years.
So, do the math. For every $10k you put into these companies ($1k each) you'll get back about $12k after 5 years, for an annual return of about 3.7% (3.7% compounded for 5 years gives 20% total). Of course if you are smart enough to be able to eliminate a couple of the lemons at the start, you do much better.
The problem is that nobody seems to be able to eliminate the lemons while keeping the eventual 10-bagger. People like Patrick Cox claim to be able to, and will sell you expensive newsletters with their choices, but if you look at their track records they don't seem to be better than chance, depending on the period you look at.
People who tell you confidently that (e.g.) "BTX will go to $10 by year's end" are either idiots or pumpers - either way, ignore them.
I agree that GALT is headed down the tubes - the key reason being that management cannot be trusted. But the slide to true value will probably be slow, and punctuated by bounces in the price as seen in the last few days.
The most important factor in valuing any company is the integrity of its management. There are dozens of ways management can rip off stockholders if they want to, and most of them are even legal. Before taking a long position in GALT or any small stock, you should be asking yourself "Would I trust these people wih my money?"
He didn't refer to it as "proof". He just pointed us to some interesting research relevant to galectin. GALT is a speculative gamble, but research like this helps to assess the odds.
Thing is that after the phase 1 fiasco, few people believe in GALT's product any more. Brief pops over $5 can be generated by b*s*t newsletters (no doubt Cox is still pumping it), but in the absence of positive news, GALT is headed down the tubes.
NLY-PC is currently trading at $25.08 and this can only be due to investors who have not read the prospectus. NLY-PC is callable. Annaly can buy it back for $25 at any time.
I think you're right. Except it could go back down to the $4.50 region even faster than that.
There are vultures in this situation, but it's not yet clear who the vultures are - the law firms, or GALT's management.
"If GALT is successful in any of its lines of research" -- yes, but how likely is that after its terrible phase 1 results? It really only has one line of research, galectins, and the phase 1 results suggest it's completely useless.
Sure, it could possibly still hit a jackpot, but so could a lottery ticket.
No, it isn't a possibility. GALT's net tangible assets are a small fraction of its market cap. Patents are only worth anything if they are for something that works.
"Beats estimated EPS"? That's complete nonsense. They don't have any earnings. What this really means is that research expenditure is less than planned, and that's a bad sign. It should be easy to follow a research plan. What happened? Some scientist quit because he/she decided galectins are a waste of time?
Thes two handles supply the comic relief on this message board, with silly posts like "up 8-15% tomorrow", "Will be up 20% by Tuesday", "BTX under $4 is a steal", etc.
Can it be that they are the same person ...? Somebody who likes 17-letter names? Both "btimnextmicrosoft" and "headsupeyesclosed" are exactly 17 letters in length.
"btimnextmicrosoft" never tires of beating a dead horse, does he?
Back in March (on March 18, to be precise, when BTX closed at $3.45) he posted a message here titled "BTX close to yr low-Great buying opportunity" and predicted BTX would "at least double" in "5 more months".
You'd think he would be embarrassed at his spectacularly ludicrous track record, but no ....
Never add to a losing trade.
Like every mistake in the stock market, sometimes it will make money, just like playng roulette will sometimes make money. But in the long run it's a losing strategy.
$10 by Monday? ROFLMAO. You guys are always good for a laugh.
Fatty liver disease wasn't the only target for their compounds, they also claim to have a cancer treatment. There is still a small chance this could pay off.
The thing is though, that there was so much hype for the liver disease treatment, which turned out to be worthless, that people don't believe their hype any more.
Product turns out to be no good = large move (downwards)
Maybe even ....
Entire basis for the company turns out to be useless = Chapter 7
I sold about 30% of my holding when the price hit $16, wish I'd sold more of course, but hey that's life ... we all knew GALT was risky.