The current stock price is predicting a long-term average dividend of at least $0.40 per year forever, which is 10 cents/quarter. That's because it costs at least $10 to buy an income stream of $0.40 cents/year forever at market interest rates.
If you think NLY will be in business forever and the quarterly dividend will never fall below 10 cents, then NLY is a buy at the current price. If the dividend gets cut to 28 cents (in line with the Q3 EPS), be happy because a lot of idiots will dump NLY, the price will tank, and it will be time to "back up the truck". I'd love that to happen.
It's a mistake to think of NLY as a stock to "buy low and sell high". When you buy NLY, you're buying an income stream. Value the income stream, and that tells you what NLY is worth.
In just 2 days ... UP from 8.2 to 8.5 ... then DOWN to 7.6 ... then UP to 9.4 ... you don't see this often.
Seems to be some disagreement among market participants about the value of GALT.
Well, officers including Denahan did buy a lot of NLY stock in November, see Yahoo's insider transactions data. Denahan bought 93,000 shares at $10.68.
There's an inconsistency in the Yahoo "Insider transactions" page. Under "Insider Purchases - Last 6 months" it says 25,000 shares. But then if you look below that, at the detail of insider transactions, it lists 4 insider purchases just in November 2013, for a total of over 238,000 shares just in one month. All these purchases were apparently at prices over $10.
Did anybody check which of these is correct
At yesterday's close price, $10.18, if your average buy price was $12.30 your loss is 4500*(12.30-10.18) = $9540. But that's just on the price.
The point of NLY is the dividends. How long have you had this stock? We've had $1.20 dividends so far this year and there'll probably be an additional 20 or 25 cents in December. Depending what kind of account you have this in (IRA?) you might not be underwater at all.
To repeat ... the whole point of a REIT like NLY is the DIVIDENDS.
Why bother? You can't stop him/her wasting his/her time, but you can stop him wasting your time. Just ignore the posts.
If Cramer says "sell", that's a buy signal. His track record is slightly worse than chance, i.e. you can make money in the long run by just doing the opposite of everything he says and using trailing stops.
No, he's saying it's OK to buy now because your downside risk is low. He's saying that if it drops, there'll be resistance at $7.50 and you'll be able to get out with a small loss.
Short version: Management is plundering the company to line its own pockets.
Always a danger with any public company, seems to be happening at NLY. CEO has been taking $35 million/year. Note, "taking" not "earning".
Sentiment: Strong Sell
A lot of shorts probably did cover, and that could be what drove the price up to 73+. Looks like a classic short squeeze.
I think it was clear even before this that shorting RGR was strictly for suckers.
The short interest in RGR has decreased but it's still extraordinarily large, more than a quarter of the float. There is serious money in play here.
Shorting a profitable company is always a very risky thing to do, but in the case of RGR, it looks completely lunatic. Does anyone know whether it's possible to find out who has taken the big short positions? And what is the thinking behind it? (Is there any thinking?)
The special dividend of $4.50 per share was paid out on December 21, 2012 to shareholders of record as of December 7, 2012.
This info does not seem to be easy to find on Yahoo Finance, but it's always more reliable to go to the corporate website anyway, in this case:
I wonder why there are such big short positions. I think RGR is overpriced, but not nearly overpriced enough for shorting it to make sense.
Just an impartial comment. I bought at 52.36 and sold at 59.55, so I don't have any skin in this.
To me, it looks overpriced, but that never stopped a stock from going up.
You're making so many mistakes at once.
But I think the biggest is buying a security like NLY with the idea of trading it, looking at the daily price and following every 10 cent move. For an individual investor, buying NLY is buying a stream of dividends.
Yes, it is. Your shares can only be lent out if your account is a margin account as distinct from a cash account.
However, the effect of short sellers on the stock price is a lot less than you seem to believe.