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Pep Boys - Manny, Moe & Jack Message Board

hopping_on_bandwagon 4 posts  |  Last Activity: Jun 7, 2014 12:39 PM Member since: Aug 19, 2009
  • hopping_on_bandwagon hopping_on_bandwagon Jun 7, 2014 12:39 PM Flag

    The other key parameter is the Dollar/Yen exchange rate. On Jan 6, it stood at 104.8. On April 14, it was 101.6. And, on June 6, it was 102.5.

  • hopping_on_bandwagon hopping_on_bandwagon Jun 7, 2014 12:26 PM Flag

    Let's take a look at three key points in time in order to draw some conclusions, shall we? The first point will be the 2014 open, the second will be the Nikkei low for the year, and the third will be the most recent close. On Jan 6, the Nikkei closed at 15909, and DXJ closed at 49.44. The Nikkei low for the year occurred on April 14, when it closed at 13910; the DXJ closed at 45.46. And, last Friday (June 6), the Nikkei was on the rise closing at 15077, and the DXJ closed at 48.97. So, if we compare the return from the beginning of the year to the low point of the year, the Nikkei was down 12.6% while DXJ fell only 8.0%. If we compare the return from the beginning of the year to yesterday's close, the Nikkei has fallen 5.2% while the DXJ has fallen only 1.0%. If we want to look at a time when the Nikkei was rising, then lets compare the return for the period from the low point of the year to yesterday's close: in this case, the Nikkei is up 8.4% while DXJ is up 7.7%. So, from just this information alone, you would conclude that DXJ has performed much better than the Nikkei index when the NIkkei was falling and almost as well when the Nikkei was rising. Not bad, DXJ ! HOP

  • Reply to

    Queston

    by hopping_on_bandwagon May 29, 2014 2:25 PM
    hopping_on_bandwagon hopping_on_bandwagon May 29, 2014 3:33 PM Flag

    I just learned a whole lot by reading the summary prospectus. In a nutshell, the (-1x) factor works on a day-to-day basis. But over a longer period of time, for a variety of reasons, the correlation factor varies wildly. The volatility of the T-Notes has a dramatic impact on the fund return.

  • hopping_on_bandwagon by hopping_on_bandwagon May 29, 2014 2:25 PM Flag

    RTPIX is suppose to provide returns that correspond to the inverse (-1x) of the daily price movement of the most recently issued 10-Year U.S. Treasury Note. When I compare 10 Year Notes movement with RTPIX, I see that they are correlated but not by the -1x factor. For example, the 10 Year Note on 1/2/14 was 3.92 and RTPIX was at 18.30. As of 5/28/14, the 10 Year Note was 3.29 (down 16%) but RTPIX was at 17.05 (down only 7%. Even factoring in the funds fees, it is difficult to understand how they can claim they are -1x correlated. If that were the case, RTPIX should be down ~16% as well. Does anyone have an explanation for this?

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