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Anworth Mortgage Asset Corporation Message Board

hotpanera2 7 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 7, 2014 9:20 AM Member since: Dec 17, 2002
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  • But it is very unusual for the bid/ask pre-market to be different from where it was when the stock closed, let alone to change several times, all higher as best I could tell.. It is presently 1.92/1.94.

  • hotpanera2 by hotpanera2 May 23, 2014 2:33 PM Flag

    There had been a large asked at 1.69 , over 40K. I get off the phone and it is all gone with a huge block of 32,474 share at 1.61 having at 2:14 P.M with other sales ahead of it. We're now at 1.69/1.70. Somebody got a huge bargain. I only got 500 at 1.68, not having had any orders in when the sale occurred.

    Hopefully, the selling is over. It makes no fundamental sense IMHO. The earnings and Disclosure Report were excellent and the stock has become cheap on a valuation basis. Plus, at 1.70 the dividend (without any possible increase or special) is 3.8%.

  • Reply to

    Nice bid out there

    by wrb335 May 15, 2014 1:38 PM
    hotpanera2 hotpanera2 May 15, 2014 2:44 PM Flag

    The bid may be due to the filing of the Q1 Disclosure Report today. Here are a few highlights.

    Cost of Goods Sold was down 1% compared to Q1 last year (p.26).

    Cash and cash equivalents were way up compared to 3/31/13:

    .$ 2,847,854 as of 3/31/14 compared to $1,509,869. as of 3/31/13 (p.14)

    International Sales rose to 14% of sales in Q1, compared to 10% a year ago and international sales were reported as strong in Q1.

    The sales pipeline and cash position "currently remain strong".

    I see no negatives at all in the report.

    It is nice to see that even though there is a very large bid .02 above yesterday's close, nobody is biting. Perhaps the tide is turning. We can only hope.

  • Reply to

    Big seller taken out near close

    by bellbell63 May 9, 2014 4:07 PM
    hotpanera2 hotpanera2 May 9, 2014 4:08 PM Flag

    Or if there are buyers at even higher levels.

  • About 60K shares traded in the last 3 minutes between 1.80 and 1.82. Amazing recovery from the depths on Thursday, and evidence that somebody is out there who thinks the stock is going higher. I couldn't agree more.

  • Reply to

    A very strong move indicated

    by freshbread4u Apr 22, 2014 4:16 PM
    hotpanera2 hotpanera2 Apr 22, 2014 6:20 PM Flag

    Fresh,

    I completely agree with you. The stock is .12 lower than where it closed the year, despite Amnf having had a truly excellent Q1.. It was certainly unfortunate that the Annual Report allowed people to reasonably deduce that Q1 would be less than stellar. Now that we know the truth and that the good news should continue for Q2 and beyond based on the statements contained in the Q1 release, the stock should at least get back to the highs of last year as an initial target . It may take a few weeks because some people got scared by the sharp decline -- which probably hit some stops by institutional holders who didn't want to risk losing large gains -- and they may need to see the stock recover a bit more before they step in. But I am convinced that that will happen. The last trade of the day not only took out the rest of the asked at 1.82 (5K or 6K shares), but somebody then put in a bid at 1.82 for 2K shares and the asked went to 1.85. If we can close at 1.85 or higher this week, we should be well on our way to a 2 handle IMHO. It was hard to add in the 1.60s and 1.70s without seeing Q1 earnings, but it seems to have been the right thing to do. There was genuine panic for an understandable reason which we now know was not only wrong, but very wrong. Things are very much looking up objectively. I'm betting that the market will soon agree..

  • hotpanera2 hotpanera2 Apr 10, 2014 12:58 PM Flag

    I think the article is very much correct. My guess is that the weather problems which were very real in Q1 in the Midwest and Northeast, affected only a small % of Amnf's sales, since the vast bulk of sales (I have never seen a breakdown) are in the West and international, and we already know that the latter is up and the former should not have been affected. They had to disclose the weather effect because they always speak conservatively and if they just talked about international sales being strong and ignored the effect of weather, they could arguably have been faulted.

    The key for Amnf and many of the food stocks, restaurants and apparel stores with any presence in the bad weather parts of the country, is that when they report they are able to say that in recent weeks (late March and early April), the effects from weather have been reversed and sales have again been strong. The market will completely forgive companies that can say that in my view. I think Amnf will be in that camp and I have added to an already very large position in recent days.

    Apart from concerns about weather, there were undoubtedly investors with large gains who waited to take them in 2014 which allowed the stock to rise quickly at the end of last year and the resulting timing of tax selling hurt the stock early this year. Then there are always those who panic at any decline and exacerbate it temporarily.. But none of this will matter if a decent narrative is set forth together with the Q1 numbers. Those numbers I am betting will not be bad despite the weather, because sales in the affected areas are just not that much. A 10% decline affecting 10% of sales (this is a complete guess) would hurt sales by 1%, offset by the rise in international sales and likely continued growth in the West. The stock has had its decline and it's now time to buy IMHO.

ANH
5.23+0.02(+0.38%)Jul 9 4:00 PMEDT

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