It is a nice write-up. Just one additional point: The report confirmed that the four new products which were mentioned in the Q4 PR will begin being sold in Q4. While we don't know what they are, let alone how they will do, they represent further potential upside for 2014.
Agree completely that a special dividend seems likely.
In all the years that I have owned Amnf since 2005, it has never reported earnings, dividends or anything else after the close. It has also, to the best of my recollection, never reported anything ahead of the open. Reports and announcements have usually been between 11:00 A.M and 1:00 P.M. Eastern.
That is a very thoughtful blog post. I have been looking at Time & Sales for the last few days and there has been heavy buy volume preceded by light sell volume which reduced the price by a few cents. I think Financial Acceleration is onto something.,
Yahoo won't let me link to it, but if you google Bretton you can read the Q1 shareholder letter which has a long discussion of amnf, not surprisingly very favorable.
There is seasonality. This is discussed in detail in the Connecticut Comments piece which somebody already referenced. Also discussed there is the fact that the buying ahead of the price increase would have occurred in Q4, not Q1, explaining the slight revenue decline in Q1
This company is looking terrific in all respects. The reduction in commodity prices should be an additional help to the numbers later this year. Based on the Q1 results, and understanding the seasonality, the chance of a special dividend this year has increased IMHO. I happen to think that the chance of a buyout has also increased, though nobody should buy the stock for that reason alone. Fortunately, the fundamentals more than justify purchase at current levels. I added another 10K shares after seeing the results.
I intended to say that about 360K of the 500K had not been spent as of the end of 2012. It is possible that some of the remaining amount was spent in Q1 without negatively affecting the balance sheet as it appears in the Annual Report. To that extent, the chance of a dividend increase is greater than if the entire 360K is yet ot be spent. We'll know more when the Q1 balance sheet and related documents are released.
I agree with one caveat. On p.45-46, the Annual Report discloses a capital expenditure of about 500K to be made in the second half of the year of which about 340K has yet to be paid for:
Sometime in the second half of 2013, the Company will have installed
new plant equipment at an approximate total cost of $500,000. As of
Page 45 of 98
December 31, 2012 the Company has expended $160,234 towards the
purchase of this equipment.
This may delay a dividend increase, especially if they decide to do share repures beyond what is currently authorized.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I agree completely. While I recently trimmed some because it became too large a position, I added 10K @ .9945 because I think somebody just decided to sell. Nothing more.
I doubt that the delayed announcement indicates anything significant. The ex-dividend date in the past has been very late in March. There was no good reason that i can fathom to have announced the dividend 7 or 8 weeks before ex-div. My guess is that they simply adjusted the announcement date to be around 2-3 weeks ahead of ex-div, as is far more typical. I would only get concerned if we get no annoucement by the middle of the month, though I doubt that will happen.
Earnings are out. They are terrific. Revenue is up 19%. EPS is up 33%. Price increases put into effect in January should help Q1. Other initiatives set forth in Press Release. All in all a home run.
I believe that some are under a misconception. I am quite certain that regardless of price, any listed company can go on the pink sheets and greatly minimize reporting requirements. What a company can't do is permanently stay on an exchange and trade below $1. Amnf decided to save the reporting requirements -- and the substantial cost -- and therefore went on the pink sheets. Once it did so, it was free to set up the capital structure any way it saw fit in terms of the stock price. It chose to split the stock so that after the process was completed ( reverse split and split) the stock traded well below $1. Why it did that is less than clear and the efficacy of that choice is subject to argument (many investors are wary of and some are unable to trade stock trading below $1, while others like to speculate in such stock so who knows what the net effect was). But the important point is that now that Amnf is above $1 -- hopefully for the long term -- I am quite certain that it will not be subject to any reporting requirements that it was not subject to when it was at .80 or .90, so long as it remains on the pink sheets and the law doesn't change.
Very good analysis. It's nice to see that some people get it. He sure doesn't.
He claims, with no basis whatsoever, that he knows how low a stock could go in a bear ,market, with fundamental destruction of businesses, etc. He has no clue. Extreme leverage works very well in a rising or even benign market. It fails miserably in a bear market. He showed that with his original Pfe program. While not as risky, his present put writing is not without significant risk, especially with some of the more risky stocks he is using. In particular, HPQ has become an extremely dangerous stock just over the last few months as the shift to tablets from PCs has rapidly accelerated and sharp reductions and competition in Enterprise have become apparent. To think that he knows that the stock won't get completely destroyed, is naive. He demonstrates yet more naivete when he thinks that when he takes a loss in a put write transaction that he must roll down in the same stock rather than write a far more likely to succeed put.. His strategy assumes never giving up on a losing stock, only continued rolling while the company goes downhill. That is not a strategy that makes any sense. It is simply a demonstration of arrogance.
Once he said that his original basis for his Pfe puts and Leaps was 100K, even though it is obvious that one could not put on his positions without further funds, he lost my interest completely. Alice in Wonderland is not investing. Phony calculations don't cut it and can't be taken seriously.
Your intellectual dishonesty is laughable. For months you touted Intrade numbers. I just checked and it's 59.6. So you ignore it and pump Iowa.
When Rasmussen had the best Romney numbers, you called it an outlier. Now that Gallup favors Romney materially, you ignore that one.
The bottom line is that for you to call Romney "toast" weeks ago was a complete joke. He may win and he may lose. But there is no way that he is "toast" in any rational view. As I learned many years ago, when somebody is not a straight shooter in one area, they won't be in other areas.. You prove that every day.
"No October surpirise"
Stated as absolute fact on October 12th.
Were you concerned that there might be one new person on the board who hadn't yet realized that you're not to be taken seriously?
May be more that he has no answer for not doing anything for himself, let alone "investors" whom he put into various HPQ naked puts, despite the stock going below the margin safe price. To be precise, either he did nothing or didn't disclose.
For me, once he claimed that his original basis for Maniacal Methods was 100K, even though the trades couldn't be put on for 100K, it got beyond the point of arguing with him, The dishonesty is so huge that I lost the little interest I had. This one I posted about for the benefit of anybody who may have put on HPQ naked puts (I very much doubt there is anybody, but who knows) and has done nothing since.
Didn't somebody here write a ton of HPQ puts with so-called "margin safe" prices higher than the current price?
For anybody properly skeptical of the "sure thing" strategy of writing naked puts at much lower strikes, I suggest you search "HPQ margin safe" on this board and see the kinds of representations that were made.
Of course, we haven't had a bad market yet.
While I don't put much credence in Intrade numbers, assume for this purpose that they are a valid representation of where the electorate is currently.. If you were a numbers man, you would recognize that 59.5 is in a different universe than saying that Romney is toast, as you constantly say. If you were being rational, fair-minded and understood numbers, you would concede that this is very much a horse race following the first debate.. If the Libyan ambassador killing cover-up gains traction and Obama doesn't do great in the next debate, the number could easily be 59.5 Romney a week from today.
I know that saying ridiculous things and never backing down gets you some attention which you desperately crave. But just for once, get a grip. This is a very competitive race and calling Romney "toast" only makes you look like an even biggert fool.
Bought at 19.98. Wrote Nov 20 calls for 1.00. It's either a 5% return in 5.6 weeks or an entry point below 19. Either is quite good IMHO. Plus, of course the calls can be rolled, bought back early, etc. depending on what happens.
Thanks for posting that. Somebody I respect, Prof. Larry Sabato, said many of the same things in a recent interview that I saw,