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Pfizer Inc. Message Board

hotpanera2 38 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 1, 2015 4:42 AM Member since: Dec 17, 2002
  • Reply to

    annual report

    by freshbread4u Mar 31, 2015 11:51 AM
    hotpanera2 hotpanera2 Apr 1, 2015 4:42 AM Flag


    I disagree. The company does not spin. Whether it is because they are more honest than most managements, are afraid of being sued, or whatever, "cautiously optimistic" is the most you ever get from them. Explaining high inventory on the last day of Q4 as being the result of an expected increase in sales over the next three months, which would end two days after they filed that statement, would never have been said if Q1 would be reported in a few weeks as having been anything but very good. You can take it to the bank that the high inventory was not due to sales weakness. Amnf is in an expansion mode with new products, new equipment and new customers. I expect to see more evidence of this when Q1 is reported and the higher inventory will be understood as having been necessary in light of increased sales which actually occurred in Q1.

  • Reply to

    annual report

    by freshbread4u Mar 31, 2015 11:51 AM
    hotpanera2 hotpanera2 Mar 31, 2015 12:33 PM Flag

    From p.44:

    "Inventory levels on December 31, 2014, 2013, and 2012, were $2,792,436, $2,106,600,
    and $2,090,693, respectively. Inventories increased annually due to timing and also to
    support the Company’s expected increase in sales activities in the subsequent quarter
    after the respective year end.

    They would not have said this if the excess inventory represented stuff that they couldn't sell. I agree with Freshbread; this is a positive.

    As for the balance sheet, the most relevant comparison of cash, CDs, etc. is year over year. Otherwise, seasonal changes affect the comparison. Y.O.Y. 4.082K compared to 3,047K is an increase of 34%. That is terrific. They are planning capital expenditures of about 400K more than last year for new equipment and expansion which could delay a dividend increase but bode well for future growth. But it will happen this year IMHO and things are going extremely well.

  • Reply to

    loads of cash

    by hb17050 Mar 24, 2015 1:52 PM
    hotpanera2 hotpanera2 Mar 30, 2015 1:57 PM Flag

    Here is the key portion of a Forbes article:
    "According to the terms of the deal, the current shareholders of Heinz will hold a 51% stake in the newly formed company. These shareholders include 3G Capital and Berkshire Hathaway. The remainder will go to the current shareholders of Kraft. To sweeten the deal for Kraft’s shareholders, they have been provided a one-time cash dividend of $16.50 per share"

    Logically, unless Buffett and 3G took Kraft private, which they did not, the Kraft shareholders have to hold a stake in the public company. Heinz is being merged into Kraft with the Kraft shareholders having 49% after the deal and the 3G/Buffett shareholders 51%.

  • Reply to

    loads of cash

    by hb17050 Mar 24, 2015 1:52 PM
    hotpanera2 hotpanera2 Mar 30, 2015 1:08 PM Flag

    Unless I missed something, Kraft Heinz will be a public company immediately after the deal is completed and the special dividend paid to the Kraft shareholders. Heinz, in effect, is going public using the vehicle of the Kraft stock which will remain a public company under the name Kraft Heinz.

    I also own BGS and share your sentiment. It would also be fine if BGS were bought out at a decent premium, as Pf almost was by Hillshire before Tsn bought Hillshire.,

  • Reply to

    Advantages of buying at all time high ask price?

    by wrb335 Mar 20, 2015 10:02 AM
    hotpanera2 hotpanera2 Mar 22, 2015 3:58 PM Flag

    You either didn't read or didn't understand wrb335's post to which I responded. He has a fundamentally different view on how an acquisition price is set than I have. That issue is worth discussing. Your response conflates that important issue with a straw man: painting the tape. Nobody here has expressed the view that such conduct affects a takeover price. The reason people presumably paint the tape is because their results for the day will look a little better if they have a large amnf holding as a % of their portfolio and amnf closes .01 or ,02 higher. Some may also believe that the closing price has some effect on the close next day.

  • Reply to

    Advantages of buying at all time high ask price?

    by wrb335 Mar 20, 2015 10:02 AM
    hotpanera2 hotpanera2 Mar 21, 2015 9:30 AM Flag

    The price of a deal is typically a function of the stock's price for 10-20 trading days ahead of a deal being announced (or the point that serious rumors are out there). The vast majority of friendly deals are done at a premium of around 20% in my experience, though the premium certainly varies and could end up much higher if there is a second interested party. Occasionally, there are special circumstances where a deal is done below the share price (a "take-under") , but that only happens when the seller is desperate such as where it needs capital and can't otherwise get it. That is not an issue here. Once in a blue moon, a bid is made substantially higher than the current price, but that is rare, again in my experience. I don't have stats on any of this, just 3 decades of watching.

    So the bottom line IMHO is that it does matter whether the stock is at 2, 2.25 or 2.50 when a deal is being considered. The downside of a too high stock price is that a suitor who would otherwise be interested, loses interest because the valuation, including a premium, is too high compared to how it evaluates the fundamentals. For me, Amnf is not overvalued for a potential suitor because of the 20% EPS growth rate with a reasonable PE, potential savings in distribution and brokerage charges after a deal and the potential for a geographic expansion by a buyer willing to invest more in the business.

  • Reply to

    another all time-high close

    by lurker271 Mar 12, 2015 2:36 AM
    hotpanera2 hotpanera2 Mar 19, 2015 6:48 PM Flag

    At 2:48 P.M., 1000 shares traded at 2.18.

  • Reply to

    Payout ratios

    by bellbell63 Mar 1, 2015 10:57 AM
    hotpanera2 hotpanera2 Mar 3, 2015 2:14 PM Flag

    You wrote:

    " But wouldn't anyone the BOD hires have to pretty much agree with their current philosophy?"

    I don't assume that the current philosophy, to the extent it exists, is inflexible. If a new CEO came in he or she would presumably have some plans for change which I have no reason to believe the BOD would not give full consideration to. For example, if the new CEO had a plan to slowly increase the geographic reach of the bulk of the distribution and provided a prudent plan for effectuating it without undue risk, my guess, without knowing the board members, is that the proposal would be carefully considered and very likely implemented.. That's how BODs and new CEOs typically operate. Presumably, before any new CEO were hired, he would have a good idea as to whether the Board is definitely looking to sell the company, is definitely opposed to doing so (except at a very unlikely to be obtainable price), or is open to the idea at attractive terms. On such a key issue there would have to be a meeting of the minds before the CEO signed on.. On other matters, just as the company has evolved since Bill Armanino's death to add products, move into international markets, etc., I would expect further evolution under a new CEO who would presumably review all of the company's operations and have some new or different ideas. for the Board to consider.

  • Reply to

    Payout ratios

    by bellbell63 Mar 1, 2015 10:57 AM
    hotpanera2 hotpanera2 Mar 1, 2015 6:41 PM Flag

    While the payout ratio is certainly an important metric, to the extent that the cash on the balance sheet grows, which it has been doing significantly, that is another potential source for an increased dividend or special dividend. It will be interesting to see the balance sheet which should come out shortly as part of the financial filing.

    Until recently, I thought that there was no significant chance for either an increase or special this quarter. However, if Q1 is really as strong as the earning Press Release would indicate -- and has continued to be strong since the earnings release -- I can see either an increase in the regular dividend to .02 or a special of .015-.02 on the theory that they were thinking about doing it last quarter and conservatively waited to confirm that the business remained strong which has now occurred.

  • Reply to

    2 questions regarding AMNF

    by jackmaster20 Feb 17, 2015 10:29 AM
    hotpanera2 hotpanera2 Feb 23, 2015 1:52 PM Flag

    The multiple of ebidta is obviously not the same for every company having x dollars in revenue. Amnf has been growing earnings at about 15%. Many food companies are lucky to grow at 5%. Obviously, the Amnf multiple would be significantly higher to a buyer who thinks the growth can continue. In that regard,, Amnf's business is more scalable than most because it operates primarily in a relatively small geographical area. Alsom, as somebody pointed out, the broker expense could easily be eliminated with only marginal increased distribution costs for a company that has products already being sold to the same customers, plus there is potential for cross-selling of both companies' products.

    It only takes one buyer and I agree that many potential buyers would probably be private companies that nobody here heard of. At this point, given Amnf's record of strong earnings growth and a very solid balance sheet, I am reasonably confident that an attractive price could be obtained. I am less confident that the company wants to sell just yet.

  • Reply to

    Report is out, and it is another good one!

    by mz_lifer Feb 12, 2015 11:19 AM
    hotpanera2 hotpanera2 Feb 12, 2015 1:00 PM Flag

    These two sentences from the report are the most bullish they have ever been in an earnings report since I have been in the stock beginning in 2005:

    "Preliminary indications for the first quarter of 2015 are that our sales are off to a strong start in the new year. Our sales pipeline appears strong".

    Given that they always have overdelivered and never overpromised, the above indicates that things are going extremely well.

    As I read the report, they seem to have borrowed a bit from Q4 in Q3 (the timing reference) which explains the extraordinary result in Q3. Looking at the whole year, EPS was up 15.3% which is very strong and we may very well do even better this year.

  • Reply to

    new institutional investor

    by lurker271 Jan 27, 2015 12:20 PM
    hotpanera2 hotpanera2 Jan 27, 2015 1:01 PM Flag

    The information also appears on Yahoo under "Major Holders". It is very nice to see.

  • Reply to

    Who would like to have company have an earnings CC?

    by dvb6000 Jan 10, 2015 11:05 AM
    hotpanera2 hotpanera2 Jan 11, 2015 4:08 PM Flag

    Q3's earnings in 2014 were actually announced on October 17th, a Friday. I am surprised that anyone would be against the company announcing a week or two before earnings what the date will be. Almost all companies do that and it benefits shareholders who may want to trade the news and don't watch the market all day. The desirability of a conference call, on the other hand, is more debatable. I would welcome the opportunity to hopefully get a better idea about current and future initiatives and trends in the business. If the Press Release were more comprehensive, the call would be less necessary.

  • Reply to

    Who would like to have company have an earnings CC?

    by dvb6000 Jan 10, 2015 11:05 AM
    hotpanera2 hotpanera2 Jan 10, 2015 1:38 PM Flag

    An earnings conference call would be wonderful. Also, a much more modest change, announcing in advance when earnings will be released would be helpful, rather than investors having to try to guess the date and time of the announcement. The more the company acts like a larger company (in matters such as the above, not in being more bureaucratic), the more respect it will get and the more fund managers will consider the company. Particularly because it is on the pink sheets, Amnf should take steps to signal that it seeks to be transparent, not a characteristic of many pink sheet companies.

  • Reply to

    Ex-date for Pimco closed-ends 12,24

    by mo2936 Dec 22, 2014 2:57 AM
    hotpanera2 hotpanera2 Dec 24, 2014 12:05 PM Flag

    I agree that it is strange that the press release regarding special dividends was not distributed. Note, though, that for the last couple of months the press releases announcing ordinary dividends were also not disseminated..

  • A few highlights:

    1. Cash is up over $1 Million since last year, coupled with a substantial pay down of debt (about 500K). This increases the odds of a special dividend significantly, though I put them at no more than 50-60%. only because the company is conservative and we got a dividend increase just last month. Hope it happens.

    2. A shift in mix to higher profit items.

    3. Increased promotional expenses to continue in Q4 " “with a goal of obtaining additional market share in several domestic markets” (p. 29).

    4. Nice 25% increase in international sales y.o.y. They now represent 13% of sales, compared to 11% last year.

    5. Much increased R&D expenses (presumably for new products) and despite that the earnings were very strong. Investing in the business but not at the expense of excellent EPS is what you want to see.

    I see nothing whatsoever in the report and a lot to be pleased with..

  • Reply to

    Bretton Fund

    by hotpanera2 Oct 25, 2014 5:25 PM
    hotpanera2 hotpanera2 Oct 25, 2014 5:29 PM Flag

    Correcting typo, amnf is 5.3% of the fund's assets.

  • hotpanera2 by hotpanera2 Oct 25, 2014 5:25 PM Flag

    The Q3 shareholder letter indicates that it neither bought nor sold amnf in Q3. Amnf shares comprised 5.7% of the fund's assets as of September 30th.

  • Reply to

    Whose turn?

    by bellbell63 Oct 20, 2014 3:42 PM
    hotpanera2 hotpanera2 Oct 21, 2014 11:49 AM Flag

    It may not be a yawn. Between now and then we have:

    1. dividend announcement around 12/12 which could include a special or a buyback. A div increase is highly unlikely 2 quarters in a row, but the others are very much in play and would further confirm the likelihood of a very good quarter.

    2. The full financial statement which will be filed in a few weeks contains tidbits from the balance sheet re inventories, accounts receivables, cash on hand etc. and often narratives beyond the press release detailing international sales and other metrics.

    3. The real possibility of new institutional money coming into the stock before year's end.

    In the meantime, there seems to be good buying interest at 2.00. I wish it were at a higher price which would be fully justified IMHO, but that should come.

  • Reply to

    fair value

    by dweaver000 Oct 19, 2014 11:52 PM
    hotpanera2 hotpanera2 Oct 20, 2014 12:33 PM Flag

    Somebody sold a 10K share block at 2.02. There was only a small bid shown which remains there. That means that a market maker picked up the block confident that the stock is heading higher.

    If I didn't have such a large position, I would be adding here. The results have been extraordinary all year and my guess (supported by the increased sales late in the quarter which you noted) is that next quarter will be very good as well.

34.89-0.12(-0.34%)Apr 21 4:00 PMEDT