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Panera Bread Company Message Board

hotpanera2 15 posts  |  Last Activity: Nov 14, 2014 1:58 PM Member since: Dec 17, 2002
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  • A few highlights:

    1. Cash is up over $1 Million since last year, coupled with a substantial pay down of debt (about 500K). This increases the odds of a special dividend significantly, though I put them at no more than 50-60%. only because the company is conservative and we got a dividend increase just last month. Hope it happens.

    2. A shift in mix to higher profit items.

    3. Increased promotional expenses to continue in Q4 " “with a goal of obtaining additional market share in several domestic markets” (p. 29).

    4. Nice 25% increase in international sales y.o.y. They now represent 13% of sales, compared to 11% last year.

    5. Much increased R&D expenses (presumably for new products) and despite that the earnings were very strong. Investing in the business but not at the expense of excellent EPS is what you want to see.

    I see nothing whatsoever in the report and a lot to be pleased with..

  • Reply to

    Bretton Fund

    by hotpanera2 Oct 25, 2014 5:25 PM
    hotpanera2 hotpanera2 Oct 25, 2014 5:29 PM Flag

    Correcting typo, amnf is 5.3% of the fund's assets.

  • hotpanera2 by hotpanera2 Oct 25, 2014 5:25 PM Flag

    The Q3 shareholder letter indicates that it neither bought nor sold amnf in Q3. Amnf shares comprised 5.7% of the fund's assets as of September 30th.

  • Reply to

    Whose turn?

    by bellbell63 Oct 20, 2014 3:42 PM
    hotpanera2 hotpanera2 Oct 21, 2014 11:49 AM Flag

    It may not be a yawn. Between now and then we have:

    1. dividend announcement around 12/12 which could include a special or a buyback. A div increase is highly unlikely 2 quarters in a row, but the others are very much in play and would further confirm the likelihood of a very good quarter.

    2. The full financial statement which will be filed in a few weeks contains tidbits from the balance sheet re inventories, accounts receivables, cash on hand etc. and often narratives beyond the press release detailing international sales and other metrics.

    3. The real possibility of new institutional money coming into the stock before year's end.

    In the meantime, there seems to be good buying interest at 2.00. I wish it were at a higher price which would be fully justified IMHO, but that should come.

  • Reply to

    fair value

    by dweaver000 Oct 19, 2014 11:52 PM
    hotpanera2 hotpanera2 Oct 20, 2014 12:33 PM Flag

    Somebody sold a 10K share block at 2.02. There was only a small bid shown which remains there. That means that a market maker picked up the block confident that the stock is heading higher.

    If I didn't have such a large position, I would be adding here. The results have been extraordinary all year and my guess (supported by the increased sales late in the quarter which you noted) is that next quarter will be very good as well.

  • Reply to

    fair value

    by dweaver000 Oct 19, 2014 11:52 PM
    hotpanera2 hotpanera2 Oct 20, 2014 10:31 AM Flag

    I disagree. There is a concept of trading below fair value in the market. If historically a stock has traded at a higher PE even with higher interest rates, if peers are trading at higher multiples, etc., it is reasonable to say that the stock is trading below fair value. The bid is what somebody is willing to pay right now. That doesn't mean that a stock can't be underappreciated, undervalued compared to peers or historically, not reflecting a potential catalyst, etc.

    Amnf is difficult to compare to peers. On the one hand it certainly should have some, unquantifiable, takeover premium because unlike much larger companies there is a significant (what chance is arguable) that 2 or 3 years from now Amnf will be part of a larger company paying a large premium. There is also a much greater chance for a large % sales growth compared to large consumer staples companies, simply because Amnf is adding new products and MIGHT expand geographically. Then there is the fact that Amnf's earnings growth RATE has been increasing substantially, to the amazing 29% EPS growth this quarter after many quarters of increasing growth. On the negative side, a small company is subject to greater risk of competition and things going wrong. Where it all plays out is debatable, but the fact that nobody is at this moment willing to pay more than 2.01 doesn't mean that that is where the stock should be or will be in a month or a year.

    I own 180K shares and have no plans to sell anything at this level. I sold a small amount at 2.01 on Friday and often trade around the edges, but my view remains very positive.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Is trading halted?

    by hotpanera2 Oct 17, 2014 11:27 AM
    hotpanera2 hotpanera2 Oct 17, 2014 11:54 AM Flag

    Sounds like there is a huge order imbalance.

  • hotpanera2 by hotpanera2 Oct 17, 2014 11:27 AM Flag

    No trades since the amazing results. I have a colleague trying to buy higher and he can't get it.

  • Reply to

    Merrill adds PNRA to US 1 list with a 185 target

    by metawampe Oct 1, 2014 8:44 AM
    hotpanera2 hotpanera2 Oct 1, 2014 6:34 PM Flag

    I made a lot of money on Pnra. I didn't hold it throughout, but I had a ten-bagger before making the mistake of writing covered calls at 80 and 90 and losing the stock when it soared faster than I thought it would. Pnra helped me retire from the practice of law comfortably before age 50, I am back in Pnra now and believe it will do very well over the next year. The market has been way too negative and domestic restaurant stocks will be in favor with lower gas prices and all of the problems of multinationals with currency, European and China weakness, etc., none of which affect Pnra.

    I'm curious: does "kozlose" indicate that you have generally been a loser? Or, perhaps you find Dennis Kozlowski, the convicted ex-Ceo of Tyc, to be a kindred spirit. Just asking.

  • Reply to

    Merrill adds PNRA to US 1 list with a 185 target

    by metawampe Oct 1, 2014 8:44 AM
    hotpanera2 hotpanera2 Oct 1, 2014 3:13 PM Flag

    I have been involved with this stock since it was ABPCA in the late 90s . On countless occasions insiders who have the bulk of their net worth in Pnra stock have sold some for whatever reason. The stock often went much higher in the ensuing months. I would only be concerned if an executive sold the bulk of his shares. Exercising options and selling the stock, or selling a small % of one's holdings, means nothing and has historically meant nothing.

  • Reply to

    Merrill adds PNRA to US 1 list with a 185 target

    by metawampe Oct 1, 2014 8:44 AM
    hotpanera2 hotpanera2 Oct 1, 2014 9:18 AM Flag

    That was yesterday. Then this morning Wundelich upgraded to buy and raised pt from 162 to 185:

    "Panera was upgraded at Wunderlich to buy from hold. Twelve-month price target is $185. Traffic has strengthened and management is investing in future growth, Wunderlich said"

  • Reply to

    Full Level 2 for AMNF

    by bellbell63 Sep 29, 2014 1:02 PM
    hotpanera2 hotpanera2 Sep 29, 2014 6:56 PM Flag

    Like Level 2 for listed stocks on sites like Fidelity, it gives the best bid by market maker and then the next best by the next market maker. Same for asked. What no Level 2 site does (at least the ones I am aware of) is give all bids or asks. So, for example, if X bids for 5000 shares of Amnf at 1.98 and that is the best bid, it will be shown. However, if the same market maker also has other bids at 1.97, that will not be shown but only other market makers at 1.97. So the book may look thinner than it really is on both sides. So today when a large asked at 2.00 was replaced with a smaller but still large asked at 1.99, it was not clear whether the same seller lowered his price or whether another seller came in at 1.99 with the same market maker and the 2.00 asked no longer showed on the book because it was with the same market maker and his best asked was now at 1.99.

    I do not deal with TD Ameritrade as does Pfalp, apparently. I do, though, have a friend who deals with them and he provides me Level 2 info for Amnf. I have complained to Fidelity that they need to add Level 2 for pink sheet stocks, but so far they haven't listened to me.


  • Reply to

    Still going sideways

    by bellbell63 Sep 19, 2014 9:54 AM
    hotpanera2 hotpanera2 Sep 20, 2014 3:53 PM Flag

    The dividend was actually .014 in 10/13 and is now 28.6% higher after the two dividend increases of .002 each during the past year. I went back and checked because I had a recollection that the dividend always ended in an even number, for the past few years at least.

    Thanks for the basil pricing info. Interesting.

    I basically agree with Freshbread that another quarter of good earnings should move the stock. Admittedly, though, I have been surprised that two quite stellar earnings results and the earlier than expected dividend increase have not made the stock go up at all this year. The earnings growth of Amnf has consistently been much higher than almost all consumer staples companies, and yet the PE has not been higher. One can say that a small company like Amnf has more risk, but it also has more potential reward via possibly being taken out, deciding to increase its geographical base, adding more new products, etc. General Mills is so big that it can't easily move the needle even with new products and acquisitions (such as Annie's). Amnf's results have been good every quarter for many years and that should increase PE. All we need is some new buying. Another couple of mutual fund buyers would be nice.

  • Reply to


    by dweaver000 Sep 7, 2014 12:01 AM
    hotpanera2 hotpanera2 Sep 11, 2014 3:13 PM Flag

    We don't disagree. Very positive results have to be coming for a 12.5% dividend increase in either quarter. My point goes only to the timing. Last year they raised in Q4 and could easily have done the same this year. My guess is that they accelerated the increase because they wanted the stock to do better, as it deserves to do after excellent results in both Q1 and Q2. They are not manipulators, but wanting the stock to trade fairly is very different than manipulating.

  • Reply to


    by dweaver000 Sep 7, 2014 12:01 AM
    hotpanera2 hotpanera2 Sep 11, 2014 2:59 PM Flag

    Well they did it. .018 announced at 2:38 P.M.

    While just a guess, I said to a colleague yesterday that if they increased the dividend this quarter it would be because they are unhappy that with two quarters of excellent earnings the stock was down ytd.

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