It would appear from this that PSEC may have made a very good buy with NICK. Investigations into these types of transactions never get very far. Courts always assume that BODs know what they are doing unless there is something particularly egregious. So even talk of suits over the terms can be bullish, not bearish.
The stock has been under savage short attack by 2 SA articles, calling for much lower prices. It probably did o.k. today under those circumstances. It could have been worse.
Agree. "It is what it is" as far as the deal is concerned. "What it finally is" is a question for the future.
$55 per share is what it is for the present. "Mr. Market" missed the short term drop, but he sure was right about not predicting any kind of short term rise, as so many here expected, once the deal would be announced.
This guy cannot possibly have any idea how much gas IOC has, and yet he presumes to "expect that they do not have enough gas to incent Total to proceed with this project." So he knows what Hessions and Total do not. Really?
The significant thing, IMO, is that a claim that IOC is worth no more than $10 was unable to knock it down any further today. That may mean we have bottomed. What more can the shorts now throw at it, after Tilson and this guy?
The irony is that the law suits require up to 5 years to go through the court process if they do go to trial, by which time they have contributed to the destruction of the company so that there is no money left to pay the class action holders even if they win. Of course, the lawyers don't expect to have to win their case. Perish the thought that it should even go to trial! What they always want is an out of court settlement in which they get 60% or more of any money paid and their clients get next to nothing. That is how it usually works. Anyone who lends his name to be lead plaintiff is only harming himself.
By now everyone has had a shot at analyzing the "deal." It is a short term negative for the pps, and hopefully a long term positive if everything works out o.k. The best Hessions could do, evidently. He never mentioned WHEN he was going to produce shareholder value, and if we take him at his word he is a happy camper with what he accomplished for the long term. So the disappointed short term longs are bailing out. Nothing we can say to persuade them to stay in. These current pps should produce outstanding returns for new investors with long term horizons. Those of us like myself who have already been holding for four years just have to be patient and hold on for some unknown future period until new drilling reconfirms the assets in the ground, which is what IOC has always been about--never current earnings.
Negative Searching Alpha articles always have some negative effect on the IOC pps, and the one from Whitney Tilson today had a particularly negative effect, given that he is Mr. Papa Bear. He chose this moment to pile on and tout his bear case, lest yesterday's bounce continue. I congratulate him on his success, just as I congratulated him on the big drop in the stock on Friday. For the moment there is a tremendous argument going on regarding whether the "deal" was a good or bad one for IOC. In terms of its effect on the pps there is no question that the "glass is half empty" (or is it "completely empty"?) is the one that prevails for the IOC longs.
After reflection,though, I have abandoned my initial thought that the huge hit to the stock might bring on a class action suit. Hession never misled us regarding anything factual about the deal that he was working on.
He honestly thinks it is good for the stockholders, and the majority of the analysts(if not 100% of them) seem to agree with him. It is rare that this kind of deal brings such totally differing opinions--between analysts on the one hand and selling stockholders on the other. The heart of it seems to be short term vs. long term. Short term the deal is a disappointment, and the pps result is very negative. Long term, assuming that the future drilling is successful, the results may turn out to be spectacularly successful. Each of us has to decide what kind of investor he is. I'm disappointed short term, but I have held this long(four years) and I can afford to wait a few more.