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Ensco plc Message Board

hounddog86zz 12 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 6, 2015 8:49 AM Member since: Dec 11, 2011
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  • hounddog86zz by hounddog86zz Aug 6, 2015 8:49 AM Flag

    Obviously AIG is buying. The checkbook is over 6B with the additional 5B in buy backs authorized. I bought a bit. Are divi funds and investors now buying? Rate went from below 1% to almost 2% with the 128% divi increase. Seems to me that some new investors may come into AIG as that is a significant jump and almost double what you can get at online savings such as ally (.99%) or GE bank (1.05%).

    Also in this day and age when most stocks seem fairly valued or even stretched at the top end there is AIG that is well below BV by as much as 20%, but has yet to get its core business to be optimized. Interest rates should rise over the next few years allowing for increased income (will negatively impact BV in short term as owned bonds value is diminished - no real impact if held to maturity) that will help the bottom line.

    Effectively there will be less shares with potential of some new buyers on an undervalued company with rising investment income and increased divi rate. Just fix the combined ratio and you will see more than this slow crawl. Will take time, obviously, based on current results, but I think this provides an excellent opportunity to move into or increase position in AIG if you have a longer term investment horizon. I have a longer term approach to AIG than with most stocks and have been rewarded so far. First buy was in 20's. GLTA. I posted on another thread I think 70 by year end. 80 end of 16 and 96 end of 17.

  • Reply to

    Cramers Mad Money Tonight 8/03/15

    by spraetty Aug 3, 2015 9:22 PM
    hounddog86zz hounddog86zz Aug 3, 2015 10:38 PM Flag

    Only 35% if they paid zero overseas otherwise it is the difference. Avg intl I think is near 18%, but would depend on where brought back from I believe.

  • Reply to

    It's RED AH this is probably because

    by kored35 Aug 3, 2015 4:16 PM
    hounddog86zz hounddog86zz Aug 3, 2015 10:24 PM Flag

    Doesn't rising interest rates hurt BV in short term but help longer term earnings. Yes ratios not improving is worrisome. Have to show they can move towards best in class if they want improved multiples. I still think 70 by yearend and am good with that movement in this environment.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Can't wait for Aug 3rd

    by momentum_play Jun 27, 2015 12:25 PM
    hounddog86zz hounddog86zz Jul 1, 2015 8:49 AM Flag

    Managing earnings still exist but to a lesser degree as a whole than in the past for companies. Companies used to beat by .01 or .02 every single qtr and even in some volatile industries. Obvious managing numbers. Does this still occur today. YES, just not so blatant.

    AIG with reserves has prime opportunity to manage as reserves are built on estimates and yes just slight adjustments can have multi million dollar impact. So is AIG being overly conservative while not distorting true expectations. I believe they are and hopeful they are.

    My company we had a reserve for a boat accident shipping our goods from Asia to US. That stayed for the longest time, ie like 10 yrs. then poof it was gone. No accident. Just, it was defended that no accident had ever occurred and thus not likely. Did we need income that qtr or yr to hit numbers. Above my pay grade but when I saw the change it was interesting. I know it was set up when we profits were rising fast.

    So yes it happens and happens at almost every company. Just should not distort true direction and health of a company.

  • Reply to

    Can't wait for Aug 3rd

    by momentum_play Jun 27, 2015 12:25 PM
    hounddog86zz hounddog86zz Jul 1, 2015 8:34 AM Flag

    So you are telling me when the deal was done and sold to aer that they did not have to price at market then and a writedown or reserve was not taken? I thought the stock price of aer has risen since the deal. Seems odd that they could hold these at a higher valuation, from an accounting perspective.

  • Reply to

    Sold Some GILD to buy

    by tradernor Jun 25, 2015 6:29 AM
    hounddog86zz hounddog86zz Jun 25, 2015 8:46 AM Flag

    Congrats on some profit. I am still holding. Have not seen anything that precludes gild from another outstanding qtr as well as likely raising guidance. JMHO. Thus holding for now.

  • Reply to

    Valuation

    by hounddog86zz Jun 22, 2015 8:05 AM
    hounddog86zz hounddog86zz Jun 22, 2015 8:31 AM Flag

    Not entirely correct. I put a 2017 earnings of 3.90 vs analyst of 3.65. SHOP. Show me your analysis. What are you using for 2016 and 2017 earnings.

  • hounddog86zz by hounddog86zz Jun 22, 2015 8:05 AM Flag

    Lots of articles now on valuation. Huge potential for Amba. But looking at estimates. Ty ending 2016 eps is 3.11 and 2017 is 3.65. Not even 20% growth. I think that is light. Let say it will be 25% growth which puts earnings near 3.90. Should get a 25 multiple or thereabouts thus this is $100 stock. If you think it will beat these numbers then yes it is worth more. Just putting some high level quick analysis on it vs many who just say this is a $200 stock or it is a $60 stock with no substance. I made some big money on Amba, but I think it has run too fast and recently sold. I would be a buyer under 100 or if they beat big again then I would have to redo analysis.

    There is potential to beat and I have a slight beat in my numbers already.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • hounddog86zz by hounddog86zz Jun 16, 2015 8:06 AM Flag

    Just downgraded. Although overhang is gone the price approached their PT. Their name is appropriate. Mor than 20% below bv. Guess the deutsche had yesterday's result already in his pt. Positive is aig can continue to buy stock well below bv and so can we.

  • hounddog86zz hounddog86zz Jun 10, 2015 8:24 AM Flag

    Also if you think it is going down st and want to buy for less then sell some puts and if it does not go down you still make money

  • hounddog86zz hounddog86zz Jun 10, 2015 8:13 AM Flag

    Probably been saying that since earnings and it is up $20 already.

  • Reply to

    High Level

    by kevinharrell86 Jun 5, 2015 1:47 PM
    hounddog86zz hounddog86zz Jun 7, 2015 2:07 PM Flag

    Sure. Reason would be to keep stock down to buyback more shares. I don't think the do this unless the discounted cash flow is higher overall. So tough to know the future that I really don't think they will. I have not seen maturities, need to look at 10k again, but hopefully they have been investing in st bonds in anticipation of rising rates. I would have been, but I also would have thought rates would be higher by now.

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