"They are not dumping a stock as it is going down."
I think what the Sharkie is saying is they dumped the stock before it went down. Seems to me you just proved his point.
goes to $45, most likely in a slow drip. It'll test and probably hold the $45 level. Great company, well-run, leader....just 10% overpriced for anyone looking to enter or add. And as you all know, 10% is roughly 1 year's worth of retruns from stocks.
and I don't buy the notion that because Jack Henry's business is down, so will SDS's business be down. At $15 I double down.
for buying before any neg. news. Company in July reaffirmed $1.12 EPS for 2002. But say they fall short at $1.05. Then say instead of $1.32 consensus for 2003 they do $1.20. At $16.50, the PE is 15.7 for 2002 and 13.7 for 2003. For a company that's a consistent +12-15% grower. A 1 to 1 PEG is great considering SDS has 12% profit margin and >15% return on equity and generates + cash flow from ops. But do your own DD.
am waiting for $15 to buy the other half. This company will be unaffected by the BK writedown. F/S cos. can't do business without SDS's products. This sympathy decline was a gift.
$15. At that price, yours truly will be backing up the truck. If it breaks thru $15, then next stop is $10. But it would take a significant shortfall for that to happen IMO.
I am quite familiar with the bull case for SRZ, it is the cream of the AL crop and has a low PE etc. Can someone please lay out the case of the bears...why 35% of all shares outstanding are short. Is it the low return on assets or the high debt ratio, or is it more than that? BTW, I see the above issues improving over time with the sale/leasebacks and debt paydown.
1. money flow analysis from Bloomberg
2. watching the asked quantities, which far outweighed the bid quantities
SDS is being dumped by an institutional holder. Who knows why and how long it lasts. But that's why the downward pressure today.
releases earnings in October and guides EPS lower for the 4th Q and all of 2003. The financial services industry is in the tank, and SDS serves that industry in a big way. The thing about a bear market is stocks go to ridiculously low levels. Like $12-$13 would be ridiculous. But $15 puts the PE at 15, not an unreasonable level.
companies don't buy back stock when it's at fair value, they buy it back when it's deeply discounted, like when the cost of doing so exceeds the firm's cost of capital. Not the case here.
I can't, cuz I don't own this barker. We'll see if you're still laughing as the months transpire. Let's remember our exchange.
<< now, who would be buying at this price? DUH?>>
Uneducated investors who think mistakenly that this stock is going up anytime soon. I'll bet that when the company has it's next conference call, listeners will be surprised then dismayed that the company didn't buy back more shares than they did.
My post from the previous descent to $13 in early August.
My opinion hasn't changed. CEFT has been and will continue to be "repriced" as Mr. Market comes to realize that the glorious growth days are over and each successive year will bring decelerating growth. At $14, not worth owning and not worth shorting. I might consider an options straddle, as I suspect this barker is dead money for quite a long time. P.S. The insiders came to the above realization and unloaded. Denial is more than a river in Africa, it can be expensive to your wallet. Gotta run, tee time @ noon.
If Dennis Kozlowski was still CEO of Tyco, he would swear under oath that his books were clean. A crook is going to lie, whether he is under oath or not.
LOL, this is a very important data point on CEFT. Shows a risk profile that the avg investor wasn't aware of. But here's the issue, if these hedge funds were the RIGHT thing for the company to be in, then they should stay in them and explain their rationale. The fact that they are dropping the hedge funds due to the market's perception shows me lack of conviction. What are they going to do now...the WRONG thing? Or are they just blaming skittish investors for their reversal so they don't have egg on their faces from being caught. Kinda makes you wonder what else is under the sheets when you lift them. We'll have to retest the $12 level now, since mgmt credibility takes a hit on this one. Have a nice weekend, my limo is waiting for me.
I'll be as objective as I can possibly be:
1. I don't own and never have owned CEFT. Ditto for being short.
2. CEFT falls into the high-growth high P-E camp.
3. It's a consolidator in a modest growth business with avg barriers to entry.
4. Organic growth of existing biz is low, that's why all the growth comes from acquisitions.
5. Acquisitions breed write-offs of post-merger expenses. Who knows what's in those write-offs, I submit no one (outside of the CEO and President and CFO) really knows, not even the auditors. See Tyco and a host of others for details.
6. The bigger CEFT gets, the more it needs acquisitions to fuel the requisite growth to maintain the P-E.
7. The more acquisitions CEFT makes, the smaller the candidate pool becomes.
8. At some point, the P-E contracts to reflect what shareholders are left with....a low growth company in a fully consolidated industry with 3-4 major players, who then have to compete for incremental business on the basis of price. Price competition means lower margins. Lower margins mean...you guessed it, lower P-E's.
The $64,000 question is when this realization hits investors. With all the B.S. that has hit investors these last 3 years, my bet is CEFT has been "figured out", thus the haircut. All the rumors did was force a lot of attention on an overpriced stock, thereby accelerating the above process of revaluation.
Seito asked me why I'm not short CEFT if I think it's going to $11.50. ANSWER: only an amateur would short a $14.50 stock, taking on infinite risk, with the goal in mind to make $3 profit. The risk/reward just isn't worth it. What if First Data buys them out for $25/share...you'd get a spanking. There are too many $14 stocks on their way down to $1 or $2....now that's worth shorting. The shorts on this board are amateurs. They are indiscriminately piling on on the downside just like so many nitwits piled on into bad investments on the way up. Live and learn!
1. Market is undergoing P-E compresion, this puppy is trading at 20 P-E. P-E of 15 is where this one settles in.
2. CEFT only grows by acquiring. You'll notice they never refer to organic growth. That's because there is none. At some point the roll-up growth opportunities dry up, and the rubber hits the road. Growth by acquisition eventually catches up to you...just ask Worldcom and Tyco.
3. The management team isn't too bright.
I'm not short, but this one is not a buy. If it looks like a pig, sqeals like a pig, and smells like a pig, then it must be a pig.