Unfortunately it looks like I had this one right, though I expect positive 102 news by year-end will take us far North of these levels.
Your Druckenmiller hypothesis was announced on May 28 and is patently ludicrous. More so with each day that the stock continues to spike on high volume. You are a tedious know-nothing drip. Get a life.
Cmon man. Just say you were wrong. Under your BS "option money freeing up" theory, the 7 million share move would not have waited till Wednesday of the following week.
I'm very surprised by the size of the move. That is a huge increase off what was already a record-high short position. In my experience shorts are pretty sophisticated about recognizing the pendency of an Index fund rebalance and adjusting accordingly in advance. Then again judging from the post content, the Nektar shorts seem an unusually dopey bunch - and that was certainly the case here, as our new short arrivals just got their rear ends handed to them. In any case I am glad to have been wrong yesterday about the size and volume of the move, though I continue to believe that these price moves driven by index fund realignments tend to balance themselves out pretty quickly. Hope I am wrong about that also.
Yes, I had a clever shorting strategy consisting of posting 43 pro-nektar posts in the last 3 months, including one that I sent about 2 hours before the one you seem so troubled by. Get your head out of the sand, sport.
Total non-event and was already priced in. If anything it will be down rest of week. Trust me, you and I were the last people to know about Nktr qualifying for this index. Investors who matter have this stuff figured out well in advance. Hence the sharp move yesterday.
Announced after bell that Nktr will join S&P 600. If that's what caused the AH pop, it's no biggie ....
There is a 102 ASCO review available online - search etirinotecan pegol pm360 and it's the first article that pops up. Nothing new until you get to the last few paragraphs, which state that a variety of biomarkers are still being analyzed, with the most promising signal so far being reduction in number of topo-1 positive circulating cells, which translated to a 14.9 vs 10.7 survival benefit (p value .007). Sounds like more to come on that front. Perez also calls "pretty amazing" the 12-month survival differential in the brain mets patients.
Formulary placement is the key. Once AZN goes live with TV ads, a good percentage of the many, many patients suffering with this condition will see their docs and say hey, have you heard anything about this Movantik? And statistics tell you that most docs (especially GPs) prescribe what their patients come and ask them about without a lot of hassle. So the key question is, when the patient gets that Movantik script from his doc, is it going to cost him a boatload of money to fill it? If he goes to the pharmacy and learns that it does, then that's it -- you probably had one shot at that patient and that was it. But if the co-pay is fairly reasonable, then you have the potential to land a patient on drug - for a long time period. That's all a long way of saying that AZN is right to try to get their formulary ducks in a row before they exit "educational" mode and go into full-throated DTC mode.
Perez/102 article in latest edition of HemOnc today. Latest quotes from Perez include: "Chemotherapy remains the backbone of management of many patients with advanced breast cancer. ..So we are looking for novel chemotherapy agents with better pharmacokinetics and no neuropathy to speak of and very little myelosuppression or cardiac toxicity ... We demonstrated that in patients with liver or brain metastases, this drug improves survival in a statistical fashion,” Perez said. “This is very interesting because the toxicity was less in this novel chemotherapy drug compared to the standard chemotherapy drugs in the market that are utilized and the worsening of quality of life was less with this novel chemotherapeutic agent. In these 2 tough subgroups of patients that need some help, we saw some survival improvement... More studies are going to be needed, but if this drug were available now, we would really consider it for patients,” Perez said. “The company is having discussions with regulatory agencies about how to take this forward, but there’s a huge amount of interest in the setting of brain metastases because of the dramatic improvements in survival that we observed. ... The drug is active." The cancer doc who commented on Perez below the article also seemed very excited about 102. So we have Perez clamoring that the drug would be used today if approved and begging for more study, and HR saying no more study unless FDA conditionally approves it first. My money is on conditional approval.....
I don't have a problem with dcx and don't think he is a short, but he is certainly full of it when he claims he has sold his Nektar position and "never looks back." Judging by the amount of time he spends listening to CCs and posting to this board, he spends a lot of time "looking back" and pondering whether he should jump back in. Historically his posts have offered a lot of value, though more recently in his quest to emphasize the negative he has put forward a lot of posts that are demonstrably false and has had to be called out repeatedly on it, which is getting a little tedious.
As for the other poster who now has about 12 identities, including several that have taken the time to open Yahoo accounts after owning the stock for 22 years for the sole purpose of announcing they sold Nektar stock, of course you are correct.
As for Movantik, I expect the sales ramp to be slow until 2 things happen -- widespread formulary coverage and DTC. That is why you heard HR say that it will be difficult to begin to assess the sales ramp till end of the year.
In all seriousness, if you look at the online sites that rate workplaces, HR actually does pretty well with the ratings and comments, though the Huntsville plant management generally doesn't seem to fare so well. I am sorry that he destroyed the life of whomever is posting irrelevant and likely untrue stuff here under 10 different IDs. But truth be told it seems like you probably deserved it. Hope you find something else that suits your skill set a little better.
It's true. I play Pinochle with his accountant. Everyone in the Bay Area knows. His employees love him because he is extremely generous.
How does termination of a study for recruitment challenges equate to "failing efficacy" as stated in your original post? And wasn't the whole point of your post to identify a difference between eu labels of Movantik and Relistor - a difference that will not actually exist? That said I appreciate your pointing out the clinical trials.gov reference, of which I was not aware and which removes the questions I had about lack of communication over that study.