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Gafisa S.A. Message Board

hrosenldgt56a 21 posts  |  Last Activity: May 13, 2016 12:11 PM Member since: Feb 14, 1999
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  • Reply to

    What Happened?

    by cardboy11 May 13, 2016 10:39 AM
    hrosenldgt56a hrosenldgt56a May 13, 2016 12:11 PM Flag

    Helicopter accident in the North Sea. Or, rather, the reaction to the accident. It was not BRS's fault but a defect in the copter. The model was pulled from servive. BRS acted proactively in grounding these in Australia even though they were not required to. Nonetheless, the company stated that it could not determine if this would have a material effect on the company.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Fraud Charges Will Continue to Haunt DV

    by dahnshaulis Mar 31, 2016 8:31 AM
    hrosenldgt56a hrosenldgt56a May 6, 2016 1:35 PM Flag

    Watch " The Big Short" to see just how egregious and how far fraud can go without significant punishment. FWIW, my cynicism about the American "justice" system leads me to believe that after some lengthy jaw-boning and pontificating by politicians allegedly "looking out for the small guy" all of the for-profit schools will tap dance away with a fine, some agreed to changes in their practices. All without admitting guilt.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    2021 and 2022 Bonds...

    by hrosenldgt56a Apr 26, 2016 2:16 PM
    hrosenldgt56a hrosenldgt56a May 5, 2016 9:22 AM Flag

    Thank you for your help. At this point in my investment career I am somewhat shifting my focus from common stocks to bonds/preferreds to achieve more balance and as a more stable source of income. I am still at the early stages of the learning curve here despite 30 years of common stock investing.You are one of the few message board posters I have found who actually focuses on the investment merits rather than their own ego or other nosense. I did e-mail SVU investor relations but have not yet received a response. What do you mean by posting it at "the corner?"

  • Reply to

    2021 and 2022 Bonds...

    by hrosenldgt56a Apr 26, 2016 2:16 PM
    hrosenldgt56a hrosenldgt56a May 4, 2016 11:50 AM Flag

    There are $278 million of *% senior unsecured notes due in 5/16. Do you know if these were refinanced?Thank you.

  • hrosenldgt56a hrosenldgt56a Apr 28, 2016 8:57 PM Flag

    What do you think the implications are for the 2019 Bonds of paying off the 2016 debt? Thank you.

  • hrosenldgt56a by hrosenldgt56a Apr 28, 2016 1:16 PM Flag

    6.875% of 10/01/2020, Senior Secured, now trade at a YTM of 10.3%. What is the chance of default?

  • Reply to

    Bonds..

    by hrosenldgt56a Apr 27, 2016 9:11 PM
    hrosenldgt56a hrosenldgt56a Apr 28, 2016 12:35 PM Flag

    If you follow the stock, like it or hate it, what do you think about these bonds? Any thoughtful input is appreciated.

  • Reply to

    Bonds..

    by hrosenldgt56a Apr 27, 2016 9:11 PM
    hrosenldgt56a hrosenldgt56a Apr 27, 2016 9:16 PM Flag

    Sorry, a misprint. The 9.125% is due 5/15/2019. Yet, this brings up another question. Why is a bond maturing a month earlier yielding 1.4% more than the later one? Both are senior unsecured. Might it simply be because the 9.125% were issued in 2011 and the 5.75% not issued until 2014. Quite a difference in the initial coupon rate!

  • hrosenldgt56a by hrosenldgt56a Apr 27, 2016 9:11 PM Flag

    The 5.75% of 6/15/2019 now has a YTM of 8%. The 9.125% of 5/15/2109 has a YTM of 9.4%. The company has refinanced this year's debtand gained breathiung room with a two year Secured Term Loan. Fundamentals are improving. What are the chances of the company defaulting on their debt?

  • hrosenldgt56a by hrosenldgt56a Apr 26, 2016 2:16 PM Flag

    now YTM of 9%. Any thoughts on chance of default?

  • hrosenldgt56a by hrosenldgt56a Apr 20, 2016 10:06 AM Flag

    Any thoughts on the 5 3/4% Bonds of 2018? They now yield around 10% for 2 years out. Are they in danger of default?

  • Reply to

    BONDS...

    by hrosenldgt56a Apr 16, 2016 7:01 PM
    hrosenldgt56a hrosenldgt56a Apr 18, 2016 2:09 PM Flag

    Thank you for your response. I am leaning towards the 2025's to lock in the rate for longer. Both the 2022 and the 2025 have been in a downtrend since the last earnings report a few weeks ago. I think that this new issue of 7 1/2% 2023's contributed to the continued downtrend. Why do you think that both the 2022 and 2025 trade at a higher yield than the newly issued bobd?

  • Reply to

    BONDS...

    by hrosenldgt56a Apr 16, 2016 7:01 PM
    hrosenldgt56a hrosenldgt56a Apr 17, 2016 9:31 PM Flag

    MU is not some fly-by-night unicorn. It is a market leader. If they experience some short term problems I believe that a suitor would come along. I've looked through hundreds of high yield bonds and only a few come with this pedigree. Yes, ratings agencies do make mistakes with bonds as wall street analysys do with stocks. However, differing opinions are what make a market. Any particular investment must be made within a well thought out portfolio strategy. Ego and hubris play no role. If you let them you may suffer the fate of Icarus.

  • Reply to

    BONDS...

    by hrosenldgt56a Apr 16, 2016 7:01 PM
    hrosenldgt56a hrosenldgt56a Apr 17, 2016 11:16 AM Flag

    Why do you say that? While the common stock will be very volatile based on short term developments in the market, industry and company, the bonds are a bet that MU will simply stay viable and won't go bankrupt. Why do you think bankruptcy is a possibility? Thank you.

  • Reply to

    BONDS...

    by hrosenldgt56a Apr 16, 2016 7:01 PM
    hrosenldgt56a hrosenldgt56a Apr 17, 2016 10:30 AM Flag

    Micron

  • hrosenldgt56a by hrosenldgt56a Apr 16, 2016 7:01 PM Flag

    took quite a hit in the last month. The 5.5% of 2025 slipped from $90.25 to $77.50.These are rated BB.The current yield to maturity is 9.3% The 5.875% of 2022 went from $96.80 to $88.50. These are also BB. The yield to maturity is 8.4%. Is this an over reaction? While you won't get the "home run" that the common stock can deliver, you can get a very good return in this low yield world if the company merely survives. Any thoughts are appreciated.

  • Reply to

    Fraud Charges Will Continue to Haunt DV

    by dahnshaulis Mar 31, 2016 8:31 AM
    hrosenldgt56a hrosenldgt56a Mar 31, 2016 9:44 AM Flag

    The question: This is known. Is it priced in?

  • Reply to

    teva

    by falcon3456 Mar 17, 2016 12:07 PM
    hrosenldgt56a hrosenldgt56a Mar 17, 2016 6:35 PM Flag

    This is a rotation out of the drugs and other similar groups into the cyclicals. It started after a sell-off botom on 2/11/16. Look at any drug stock since then. Of course they were also affected by the current anti-drug politcal farce, Valeant's woes and the Allergan delay. Up to February 11 concensus was that the world was going into recession so the cyclicals were to be avoided at all cost. Well, we're still here and the abyss doesn't look that close anymore. A new factor: mutual fund managers have to chase the momentum going into the 1st Quarter reporting season. They can't underperform their peers or their bonuses and even their jobs are in jeapordy. Additionally, last week saw the first inflow of money into US Equity Funds in quite a while. US Equity Mutual Funds now have about 15% in cash. FWIW, I believe that this will add fuel to rally through the end of the month. During the first two weeks in April additional money will flow in from pension contributions. More fuel to the fire. Longer term, until proven otherwise, this appears to be a countercyclical bounce in a down market. Every Fed in the world still sees growth as weak and needing to be tweaked. Maybe the old adage, "Sell in May and Go Away," will hold true this year. Enjoy the rally but keep one foot out the door. If this plays as per my scenario, the drugs will be wonderful buys with the turn.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Capital Links Shipping Forum on Monday 3/21/16

    by hrosenldgt56a Mar 15, 2016 10:19 AM
    hrosenldgt56a hrosenldgt56a Mar 15, 2016 3:59 PM Flag

    Do you think it is possible that he would say anything company specific in this venue or is that taboo? Do you have any experience with past conferences? than you.

  • CPLP is not on the list of company presentations. Will anybody from the company be there? Will they add anything company specific or will we have to rely on general industry developments from the other presentations?

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