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PBF Energy Inc. Message Board

hrosenldgt56a 10 posts  |  Last Activity: Jan 29, 2015 9:41 AM Member since: Feb 14, 1999
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  • I don't get this one at all: EPS beat. Raise the dividend. Announce 2015 estimates 8-15% above consensus. At the low end of '15 estimates the p/e is under 15. New alliances in genetic testing. Who is selling DGX now and , more importantly, why?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Why has the price of CR has been declining?

    by zavadsky1965 Jan 15, 2015 10:50 AM
    hrosenldgt56a hrosenldgt56a Jan 19, 2015 3:14 PM Flag

    One last thought. Earnings are due on the 27th. They have missed estimate for the past two quarters. Just one caveat.

  • Reply to

    Why has the price of CR has been declining?

    by zavadsky1965 Jan 15, 2015 10:50 AM
    hrosenldgt56a hrosenldgt56a Jan 19, 2015 3:13 PM Flag

    It appears that CR is caught up in the "toss anything with O&G exposure" panic. Although they didn't mention CR, Barron's had an interesting take this weekend on similar stocks. They recommended FLS as one. If estimates are correct (They are in a downtrend now) then the p/e based on $4.80 in 2015 earnings is 11.2. This is the low end of a multi-year range.The only time it was lower was during the 2009 sell off. The company has raised the dividends for 11 years. The yield is 2.5%. The only time it was higher was during the 2009 sell off. See a pattern? Since earnings bottomed in 2009 the company has raised earnings each year. The biggest question is macro: Will the world economy slow this year and, if so, by how much? FWIW, Value Line rated it a #1 for timeliness in this week's edition. So, all told it seems cheaper than peers but, maybe, not cheap enough if world growth slows. Good luck. H.

  • Reply to

    O&G Exposure

    by hrosenldgt56a Jan 18, 2015 2:09 PM
    hrosenldgt56a hrosenldgt56a Jan 19, 2015 10:34 AM Flag

    Than you for your input.It's just my style but I usually hold quality companies like EMR "forever." Each is no more than 2% of my portfolio. This holding period is much harder with cyclicals than with defensive stocks like JNJ. However, I have found that when I do sell quality companies I often find myself later asking, "Now why did I sell that?" That's why I buy/sell around the edges based on valuation. A human tendency is also not to want to buy back a stock which you sold for a lower price. This is totally irrational as the current valuation parameters have absolutely nothing to do with whatever price you bought/sold a stock for. Yet, human psychology often prevails. With EMR there are a series of questions: 1. How deep or long will the macro downturn be? 2. Re:O&G, How fast can they adjust their expenses to account for any order slowdown? 3. Will management UPOD the earnings to bring down expectations so that can "beat." This is SOP as companies have to pay the Street's quarterly numbers game. Thanks again for the input. Good luck with your investing. H.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • hrosenldgt56a by hrosenldgt56a Jan 18, 2015 2:09 PM Flag

    I have looked through the 10K but can't get a handle on actually how much of their revenues and earnings are tied to O&G. Or what % of their O%G exposure is really affected (i.e How much is downstream? In what areas of O&G do they do the most business?) Barron's had an interesting take this weekend when they pointed to PCP and FLS as being taken down too much because of supposed O&G exposure. EMR is a strong long-term core holding for me. I'm trying to see if its a good idea to trade around the edges. Thanks for any ideas on this topic.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • hrosenldgt56a by hrosenldgt56a Jan 14, 2015 11:03 AM Flag

    The stock market price of all of the refiners has been going south lately despite the precipitous fall in oil prices. Today is no exception. Is the crack spread narrowing? Is the price received for refined products going down more than the company is saving in lower oil input costs? Does anybody know of any sources for real information on this most important aspect for refiners? Thanks.

  • hrosenldgt56a by hrosenldgt56a Jan 10, 2015 11:30 AM Flag

    In this week's Barron's Research Reports, Morgan Stanley said BUY Steel Dynamics because their input costs (scrap steel) will drop more than their pricing. Therefore, margins will widen. They steel that the Street doesn't recognize this. Does NUE have the same dynamics?

  • Reply to

    Down 6% on a big up day for market. No news?

    by maddysdad05 Jan 8, 2015 3:42 PM
    hrosenldgt56a hrosenldgt56a Jan 8, 2015 4:29 PM Flag

    Sympathy for ADM downgrade?

  • Reply to

    new contract

    by hambalaya Nov 13, 2014 9:14 AM
    hrosenldgt56a hrosenldgt56a Nov 23, 2014 9:34 AM Flag

    I have followed this company for years. The contract sounds wonderful as did other contracts in the past. However, the problem still lies in the execution. Will GLDD make a profit here? How competitive was the bidding process? How good a handle do they have on the situation? Maybe accurate bidding is just too difficult. Admittedly, with their expertise in this area they should know what they're doing. This problem is not only with GLDD but is endemic to the E&C industry. For instance, look at the track record of KBR. Maybe I'm too skeptical after being burned b y E&C investments in the past but I feel more comfortable with investments in the suppliers to all of these companies. It's the old "selling shovels to the gold miners" theory. This spreads the risks. JMHO.

  • hrosenldgt56a by hrosenldgt56a Nov 1, 2014 10:04 AM Flag

    ….because of competition from WalMart in the US-to-US money transfer category. This area only represents 8% of WU revenues so, at the moment, the problem seems company specific to MGI. What are the chances that WMT expands this program internationally? What would be the risk to WU?

    Sentiment: Buy

28.10+0.25(+0.90%)Jan 30 4:02 PMEST

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