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Ensco plc Message Board

hrosenldgt56a 23 posts  |  Last Activity: 11 hours ago Member since: Feb 14, 1999
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  • hrosenldgt56a hrosenldgt56a 11 hours ago Flag

    What do you think the implications are for the 2019 Bonds of paying off the 2016 debt? Thank you.

  • hrosenldgt56a by hrosenldgt56a 19 hours ago Flag

    6.875% of 10/01/2020, Senior Secured, now trade at a YTM of 10.3%. What is the chance of default?

  • Reply to


    by hrosenldgt56a Apr 27, 2016 9:11 PM
    hrosenldgt56a hrosenldgt56a 20 hours ago Flag

    If you follow the stock, like it or hate it, what do you think about these bonds? Any thoughtful input is appreciated.

  • Reply to


    by hrosenldgt56a Apr 27, 2016 9:11 PM
    hrosenldgt56a hrosenldgt56a Apr 27, 2016 9:16 PM Flag

    Sorry, a misprint. The 9.125% is due 5/15/2019. Yet, this brings up another question. Why is a bond maturing a month earlier yielding 1.4% more than the later one? Both are senior unsecured. Might it simply be because the 9.125% were issued in 2011 and the 5.75% not issued until 2014. Quite a difference in the initial coupon rate!

  • hrosenldgt56a by hrosenldgt56a Apr 27, 2016 9:11 PM Flag

    The 5.75% of 6/15/2019 now has a YTM of 8%. The 9.125% of 5/15/2109 has a YTM of 9.4%. The company has refinanced this year's debtand gained breathiung room with a two year Secured Term Loan. Fundamentals are improving. What are the chances of the company defaulting on their debt?

  • hrosenldgt56a by hrosenldgt56a Apr 26, 2016 2:16 PM Flag

    now YTM of 9%. Any thoughts on chance of default?

  • hrosenldgt56a by hrosenldgt56a Apr 20, 2016 10:06 AM Flag

    Any thoughts on the 5 3/4% Bonds of 2018? They now yield around 10% for 2 years out. Are they in danger of default?

  • Reply to


    by hrosenldgt56a Apr 16, 2016 7:01 PM
    hrosenldgt56a hrosenldgt56a Apr 18, 2016 2:09 PM Flag

    Thank you for your response. I am leaning towards the 2025's to lock in the rate for longer. Both the 2022 and the 2025 have been in a downtrend since the last earnings report a few weeks ago. I think that this new issue of 7 1/2% 2023's contributed to the continued downtrend. Why do you think that both the 2022 and 2025 trade at a higher yield than the newly issued bobd?

  • Reply to


    by hrosenldgt56a Apr 16, 2016 7:01 PM
    hrosenldgt56a hrosenldgt56a Apr 17, 2016 9:31 PM Flag

    MU is not some fly-by-night unicorn. It is a market leader. If they experience some short term problems I believe that a suitor would come along. I've looked through hundreds of high yield bonds and only a few come with this pedigree. Yes, ratings agencies do make mistakes with bonds as wall street analysys do with stocks. However, differing opinions are what make a market. Any particular investment must be made within a well thought out portfolio strategy. Ego and hubris play no role. If you let them you may suffer the fate of Icarus.

  • Reply to


    by hrosenldgt56a Apr 16, 2016 7:01 PM
    hrosenldgt56a hrosenldgt56a Apr 17, 2016 11:16 AM Flag

    Why do you say that? While the common stock will be very volatile based on short term developments in the market, industry and company, the bonds are a bet that MU will simply stay viable and won't go bankrupt. Why do you think bankruptcy is a possibility? Thank you.

  • Reply to


    by hrosenldgt56a Apr 16, 2016 7:01 PM
    hrosenldgt56a hrosenldgt56a Apr 17, 2016 10:30 AM Flag


  • hrosenldgt56a by hrosenldgt56a Apr 16, 2016 7:01 PM Flag

    took quite a hit in the last month. The 5.5% of 2025 slipped from $90.25 to $77.50.These are rated BB.The current yield to maturity is 9.3% The 5.875% of 2022 went from $96.80 to $88.50. These are also BB. The yield to maturity is 8.4%. Is this an over reaction? While you won't get the "home run" that the common stock can deliver, you can get a very good return in this low yield world if the company merely survives. Any thoughts are appreciated.

  • Reply to

    Fraud Charges Will Continue to Haunt DV

    by dahnshaulis Mar 31, 2016 8:31 AM
    hrosenldgt56a hrosenldgt56a Mar 31, 2016 9:44 AM Flag

    The question: This is known. Is it priced in?

  • Reply to


    by falcon3456 Mar 17, 2016 12:07 PM
    hrosenldgt56a hrosenldgt56a Mar 17, 2016 6:35 PM Flag

    This is a rotation out of the drugs and other similar groups into the cyclicals. It started after a sell-off botom on 2/11/16. Look at any drug stock since then. Of course they were also affected by the current anti-drug politcal farce, Valeant's woes and the Allergan delay. Up to February 11 concensus was that the world was going into recession so the cyclicals were to be avoided at all cost. Well, we're still here and the abyss doesn't look that close anymore. A new factor: mutual fund managers have to chase the momentum going into the 1st Quarter reporting season. They can't underperform their peers or their bonuses and even their jobs are in jeapordy. Additionally, last week saw the first inflow of money into US Equity Funds in quite a while. US Equity Mutual Funds now have about 15% in cash. FWIW, I believe that this will add fuel to rally through the end of the month. During the first two weeks in April additional money will flow in from pension contributions. More fuel to the fire. Longer term, until proven otherwise, this appears to be a countercyclical bounce in a down market. Every Fed in the world still sees growth as weak and needing to be tweaked. Maybe the old adage, "Sell in May and Go Away," will hold true this year. Enjoy the rally but keep one foot out the door. If this plays as per my scenario, the drugs will be wonderful buys with the turn.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Capital Links Shipping Forum on Monday 3/21/16

    by hrosenldgt56a Mar 15, 2016 10:19 AM
    hrosenldgt56a hrosenldgt56a Mar 15, 2016 3:59 PM Flag

    Do you think it is possible that he would say anything company specific in this venue or is that taboo? Do you have any experience with past conferences? than you.

  • CPLP is not on the list of company presentations. Will anybody from the company be there? Will they add anything company specific or will we have to rely on general industry developments from the other presentations?

  • hrosenldgt56a by hrosenldgt56a Mar 6, 2016 10:54 AM Flag

    ...own stakes in DRAD as follows: Lone Star 6% (Their #3 holding @ 10% of the total portfolio.); Heartland 7%; Cannell 6%; Punch 6%; Krensavage 2% ( Michael Krensavage is a well respected long/short healthcare investor.) Why don't these investors who have collectively $27 million worth of DRAD recognize the supposed "manipulation" of earnings?

  • Reply to

    Up Up and Up!

    by newworldorder1warrior Feb 22, 2016 9:14 PM
    hrosenldgt56a hrosenldgt56a Feb 25, 2016 5:00 PM Flag

    How about some real analysis besides the string of headlines. I am a long time shareholder of SWM. This is fine, well run company which is in the midst of "diversification growth pains." Based on next year's estimated earnings of $3.15 the p/e is 9.7. The company has raised the dividend for the last five years. The current yield is above 5%. It is well covered. Management holds about 11%. I would like to see them step up and buy shares in the open market. Value Line has a target price of $50-$70 for 2018-20. Cyclical industrials have been sold off across the board due to macroeconomic fears. FWIW, I believe this is long term investment. Collect the 5% and add/trim to match your desired portfolio weighting over the years. Good luck.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Repurchase program

    by dunrunnin2 Feb 25, 2016 10:14 AM
    hrosenldgt56a hrosenldgt56a Feb 25, 2016 4:33 PM Flag

    Down from last quarter to $9.94...What do you think the reaction will be? On the plus side: 1.Earnings beat 2. Buyback continues. What is the most important metric for BDC's?

  • Reply to

    Officer T.A.Ford...

    by hrosenldgt56a Feb 22, 2016 1:40 PM
    hrosenldgt56a hrosenldgt56a Feb 25, 2016 2:09 PM Flag

    It's not a questgion of "sweating." This is just one more data point to consider in a comprehensive analysis. What you hold has no relevance. As to "sweating," you should not allow any investment decision to even draw a bead of sweat. As they say, "Don't sweat the small stuff." By the way, his sale was for 60,000 shares or $1.3 million. If either deal is coming why not wait?

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