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Grupo Casa Saba, S.A. de C.V. C Message Board

hrosenldgt56a 36 posts  |  Last Activity: Mar 26, 2015 8:38 PM Member since: Feb 14, 1999
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  • hrosenldgt56a by hrosenldgt56a Mar 26, 2015 8:38 PM Flag

    Does anybody know the average maturity or duration of the holdings. I can't seem to locate this. Thanks.

  • Reply to

    No insider buying...pathetic

    by budandwee Mar 25, 2015 2:29 PM
    hrosenldgt56a hrosenldgt56a Mar 26, 2015 6:09 PM Flag

    The toy line is as dead as Velveeta Cheese and Ketchup. Upper income consumers want organic and quality; lower income consumers buy store brands to save a buck. And yet…….who wants Barbie? or American Girl? We'll see.

  • Reply to

    Salmon are swimming back upstream...

    by hrosenldgt56a Mar 17, 2015 2:18 PM
    hrosenldgt56a hrosenldgt56a Mar 25, 2015 4:33 PM Flag

    Hit some rough rapids today. Salmon smoked! Big volume but no news…where's the beef? (RIP Clara Peller)

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • hrosenldgt56a by hrosenldgt56a Mar 24, 2015 4:40 PM Flag

    Revenue grows 20%. EARNINGS UP 100%! Earnings beat estimates by 50%. The company has developed a good solid growth plan with specifics spelled out for the next 3-5 years. P/E drops from 20 to 16. Analysts upgrade target prices.A gem in this market.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Your right on so undervalued.

    by jborg4444 Feb 23, 2015 4:44 PM
    hrosenldgt56a hrosenldgt56a Mar 20, 2015 10:06 PM Flag

    One problem here is that this is tightly controlled. The IR department is totally non-responsive. The family will do what the family will do. So be it.

  • Reply to

    Trade in ...

    by hrosenldgt56a Mar 17, 2015 9:30 PM
    hrosenldgt56a hrosenldgt56a Mar 20, 2015 10:00 PM Flag

    So we will. Maybe all of the "takeover in the next five minute" touts can start pumping again. Hey, maybe the S&P selection committee purposely tossed AVP from the train so that they could buy up shares on the cheap. Maybe they knew in advance or even arranged for a private equity fund run by their brothers-in-law to arrange for the takeover to be announced over the weekend. Maybe they had practice from hiding the shooter on the grassy knoll?

  • Reply to

    AVP Volume

    by valuanalyst Mar 20, 2015 4:11 PM
    hrosenldgt56a hrosenldgt56a Mar 20, 2015 9:53 PM Flag

    How about the last S&P index fund stragglers exiting? This factor is now gone. Next week will be a better tell.

  • Reply to

    Salmon are swimming back upstream...

    by hrosenldgt56a Mar 17, 2015 2:18 PM
    hrosenldgt56a hrosenldgt56a Mar 20, 2015 3:44 PM Flag

    The deal is done. Let's see if shareholders won.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Politics always plays a role….

    by hrosenldgt56a Mar 18, 2015 11:35 AM
    hrosenldgt56a hrosenldgt56a Mar 18, 2015 8:26 PM Flag

    What will Bibi do?

  • Reply to

    Trade in ...

    by hrosenldgt56a Mar 17, 2015 9:30 PM
    hrosenldgt56a hrosenldgt56a Mar 18, 2015 8:25 PM Flag

    Thank you, Janet. Unintended or intended consequences???? A new fifty-two week low before she spoke. Now we can return to the short term thesis of a pop after index selling is over. Right or wrong, we'll know next week.

  • Reply to

    Heading above $10

    by bob.bull99 Mar 18, 2015 4:04 PM
    hrosenldgt56a hrosenldgt56a Mar 18, 2015 4:31 PM Flag

    Thank you. Very enlightening.

  • hrosenldgt56a by hrosenldgt56a Mar 18, 2015 11:35 AM Flag

    but how do you quantify the effect? At least ICL isn't in Chile like SQM. POT has positions in both. Wither fertilizer?

  • hrosenldgt56a by hrosenldgt56a Mar 17, 2015 9:30 PM Flag

    When a company is booted from an Index there is forced selling. This results in another leg down. This ends Friday. Once this is cleared we revert to the fundamentals. Therefore…. (Fill in your own answer)…..

    Sentiment: Buy

  • hrosenldgt56a hrosenldgt56a Mar 17, 2015 9:25 PM Flag

    Price Target: 15 x '15E $2.20 = $33.00

  • hrosenldgt56a hrosenldgt56a Mar 17, 2015 9:20 PM Flag

    Look at similar high quality cyclicals like EMR, DOV or CR to name a few. All trade at about a p/e of 15. TEX at 11. Why? As a bonus you get the business which will be generated when the east coast ports start benefitting from increased freight volumes coming through the widened Panama Canal. In this market environment shouldn't TEX also get an average multiple? TEX has started paying a dividend. Tepper at Appalossa has been adding to his position. TEX also announced a $200 million repurchase which amounts to 8% of the stock outstanding @ $25. The backlog is up 17% from the 9/14 Quarter. What's not to like?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • as is the price of MHG today. It closed in Oslo @ 98.15 Norwegian Kr x .1208 x-change rate = $11.86 (+1.5% on the day) on more than double the usual volume. So, has the cv effect been absorbed? Looking ahead estimates for 2015 average 8.75 kr and 2016 10.40 kr. Dividends are estimated at 7 kr. and 8.7 kr. respectively. Do the math. The p/e and dividend yield are quite attractive. One caveat for US investors is that if the dollar keeps appreciating vs. the krone, the value of norwegian holdings goes down. FWIW, I believe that seafood consumption is set to grow as the developing world food choice move up the protein value chain. Also, MHG is #1 and is consolidating the industry. All in all, a unique long term (3-5 year+) buy.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Loss of 2 cents per share?

    by iwonder96 Mar 16, 2015 9:25 PM
    hrosenldgt56a hrosenldgt56a Mar 17, 2015 9:19 AM Flag

    What are you talking about?

  • Reply to

    Redeem CV

    by hrosenldgt56a Mar 16, 2015 9:22 AM
    hrosenldgt56a hrosenldgt56a Mar 16, 2015 10:14 AM Flag

    Oops. I was focused on two different things at once. After looking at the Swedish market this morning I still had the Swedish currency in my head. Scratch the above: As of 10:00AM EST MHG is 96.20 Norwegian Kr. x exchange rate of .122 = $11.74 US. In Euros converts to 96.20 x exchange rate of .1151 = 11.07 Euros. We're close to where the deal may be pulled. I apologize for the confusion to anyone out there and to myself!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • hrosenldgt56a by hrosenldgt56a Mar 16, 2015 9:22 AM Flag

    MHG wants to redeem the 350Million euro 2018 cv. This would result in 10% dilution. Thus, the drop today. This is to "position the company for organic growth and strategic investments." I don't understand this. Can the company get cheaper funding than 2.375%? The "market" did not respond positively. On Friday MHG was 101.40 SK. Today it is 97.05. One saving grace: MHG stated that if the stock price fell below 11.05 Euros the company "may elect to withdraw the offer". As the exchange rate of SK to Euro is now .1092 and MHG is trading at 97.05 SK, the price in Euros is 10.60. Will management listen to the market and pull the offer? Maybe this is all just noise as the long term outlook for this salmon consolidator still looks solid. It's only the short term wiggles that look "fishy." (Groan…sorry.)

  • hrosenldgt56a by hrosenldgt56a Mar 5, 2015 10:07 AM Flag

    is the key to all of these contracts. To state the obvious: As the dredging leader in the US, GLDD wins contracts connected to the need for east coast ports to be able to accommodate the surge in shipping which will flow through the Panama Canal. The "obvious" attracted me to this company since 2006 when Panama first committed itself to the project. Yet, as with all of the companies in this industry the problem is translating contract wins into bottom line results. Do they bid too low just to get the business? Do unforeseen glitches raise costs? Are these contracts pure bids where the company eats the overruns or cost-plus? Are payment schedules set correctly? Why do there always seem to be endless contract disputes? The answer seems to lie with the quality of management. Will GLDD be able to bring $$$ to the bottom line with this Savannah deal?