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Grupo Casa Saba, S.A. de C.V. C Message Board

hrosenldgt56a 18 posts  |  Last Activity: Nov 23, 2014 9:34 AM Member since: Feb 14, 1999
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  • Reply to

    new contract

    by hambalaya Nov 13, 2014 9:14 AM
    hrosenldgt56a hrosenldgt56a Nov 23, 2014 9:34 AM Flag

    I have followed this company for years. The contract sounds wonderful as did other contracts in the past. However, the problem still lies in the execution. Will GLDD make a profit here? How competitive was the bidding process? How good a handle do they have on the situation? Maybe accurate bidding is just too difficult. Admittedly, with their expertise in this area they should know what they're doing. This problem is not only with GLDD but is endemic to the E&C industry. For instance, look at the track record of KBR. Maybe I'm too skeptical after being burned b y E&C investments in the past but I feel more comfortable with investments in the suppliers to all of these companies. It's the old "selling shovels to the gold miners" theory. This spreads the risks. JMHO.

  • hrosenldgt56a by hrosenldgt56a Nov 1, 2014 10:04 AM Flag

    ….because of competition from WalMart in the US-to-US money transfer category. This area only represents 8% of WU revenues so, at the moment, the problem seems company specific to MGI. What are the chances that WMT expands this program internationally? What would be the risk to WU?

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Pause for Lawsuit

    by sugarfox98 Oct 3, 2014 3:58 PM
    hrosenldgt56a hrosenldgt56a Oct 6, 2014 6:43 PM Flag

    Could you please explain why. Thanks.

  • Reply to

    Pause for Lawsuit

    by sugarfox98 Oct 3, 2014 3:58 PM
    hrosenldgt56a hrosenldgt56a Oct 5, 2014 4:07 PM Flag

    I missed it. Maybe stupid but I don't think greedy. I was just trying g to find some higher rate tax-deferred income. What are the tax implications of KMR dividends? If each stock distribution is not taxable what are the implications for KMR of the takeover? Where were you with the advice ten years ago when I needed you? Good luck.

  • Reply to

    Pause for Lawsuit

    by sugarfox98 Oct 3, 2014 3:58 PM
    hrosenldgt56a hrosenldgt56a Oct 4, 2014 10:14 AM Flag

    Hooray for this lawsuit. As an MLP holder for YEARS my cost basis is nil. As part of long-term estate and tax planning I wanted to leave KMP here after I went to the far beyond. My thinking: collect tax deferred income while I walked the earth and with my demise my heirs got a stepped-up cost basis. Mr. Kinder may not care about this and, given the nature of the markets, he will probably get his way. At the least , I hope that the lawsuit might push the deal into 2015. After years of the biggest concern being the government changing the tax laws on MLP's, it came as quite a shock to see management pulling the rug out from under its own long-term holders. So much for the "best laid plans of mice and men."

  • hrosenldgt56a by hrosenldgt56a Sep 18, 2014 4:41 PM Flag

    from cargill et al seems strange to me. The US approved the genetically altered corn seed in 2010. China won't accept this product. Why did anybody buy the seed if they were concerned that China wouldn't accept it. Mexico, Japan et al do accept it. Why should Syngenta be responsible for this? I don't get it. I do understand the latest negative story where Ingredion said that it wouldn't buy this corn product. They can do what they like. This will further cut demand. Is Syngenta also responsible for Ingredion's decision?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    some people can't read

    by jborg4444 Sep 8, 2014 6:34 AM
    hrosenldgt56a hrosenldgt56a Sep 8, 2014 1:31 PM Flag

    As I mentioned, I am not at all short this company but WAY IN ( My third largest position.) based on the fundamentals I listed in my response to your last message. I also posted my long-term sentiment as Strong Buy. However, I try to look at all possible outcomes. Hey, what the heck, if you're paranoid it doesn't mean someone isn't after you. Good luck to us both with this investment. I send virtual Moon Cakes your way on this Autumn Festival Day.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    sales off the turtel shalls ?

    by jborg4444 Sep 7, 2014 5:43 AM
    hrosenldgt56a hrosenldgt56a Sep 7, 2014 9:59 AM Flag

    Again, where is the information to support the statement that "they are selling like hotcakes?" What is the "operating problem" to which you refer? AsSarah Peller used to say, "Where;s the beef?" Yes, sales were up but a certain percentage of this is in preparation for the holiday season. In the interim earnings release the company itself says that second half sales will be above last year but not nearly as much as the first half. I am very long this stock based on: 1. The solid dividend which the company aims to keep at 33% of income. 2. The long term prospects for the franchise with Turtles on TV planned for 2015 and another movie for 2016. 3. The low valuation in comparison to its peers. Please, if you haven't, read the entire interim report and analyze the numbers yourself.

  • Reply to

    NEW SDRL HOLDER

    by anal.lyst Sep 5, 2014 9:51 AM
    hrosenldgt56a hrosenldgt56a Sep 5, 2014 3:31 PM Flag

    to "diversify" with Fredericksen look at MHG, a fishy tale.

  • Reply to

    great numbers

    by jborg4444 Sep 2, 2014 9:37 AM
    hrosenldgt56a hrosenldgt56a Sep 3, 2014 9:03 AM Flag

    Short-term, I was WAY WRONG! Ever since the interim earnings were released the stock price has done nothing but tumble 17% on 2-4x normal volume. Why?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    great numbers

    by jborg4444 Sep 2, 2014 9:37 AM
    hrosenldgt56a hrosenldgt56a Sep 2, 2014 10:36 AM Flag

    Please see my reply to your last post. I am a long time shareholder and would like to see stock price appreciation as much as anyone but IMHO I don't think that "sales up 40% we should be over .50" is a very thoughtful analysis. Have you read the interim report? Have you thought about the numbers? Have you listened to the company's projections for the rest of the year? Even the most basic due diligence requires more than just a focus on one number out of context. Good luck with your investments.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles

    by tinipupinni Aug 11, 2014 1:12 PM
    hrosenldgt56a hrosenldgt56a Sep 1, 2014 3:25 PM Flag

    Go to the Playmates Web Site. Full interim results are available. See what you think. If anyone is interested I have posted some thoughts on the PMTYF bulletin board. Good hunting.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    PMTYF is a SLEEPER

    by jborg4444 Aug 20, 2014 10:35 AM
    hrosenldgt56a hrosenldgt56a Sep 1, 2014 2:16 PM Flag

    One last thought. I applied the normalized tax rate of 33% to all of 2013 earnings. EPS at that rate would have been HK$.30 per share versus the reported HK$.45. With Playmates closing at HK$2.53 as of the 9/1 close this gives us an adjusted p/e of 8.4. The dividend without any extras is 4%. While admittedly much larger and more diversified MAT and HAS have double the p/e's. This still appears to be the best value among world toy companies especially given the visibility of growth.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    PMTYF is a SLEEPER

    by jborg4444 Aug 20, 2014 10:35 AM
    hrosenldgt56a hrosenldgt56a Sep 1, 2014 2:04 PM Flag

    Check out the 8/29 earnings release on their website. EPS is down to HK$.146 versus HK$.18 last year but solely because of a normalized tax rate as opposed to a credit last year. Sales were up 40%! An interim dividend of HK$.05 was declared. The company expects good sales into the holiday season. If they perform like last year it is likely that an additional extra interim dividend would follow. The first half dividend this year was an extra HK$.10 in addition to the regular HK$.05. Last year was 0. Strong second half sales are expected due to both the strong showing of the TMNT movie, #1 at the box office the first two weeks and showing legs as it only fell to #2 the next two. Total box office is over $166 Million. The Nickelodeon TV show has top ratings. Season 4 will debut in the fall of 2015 so the franchise for toys should continue strong. Another movie release is also planned. TMNT toys are the #1 action brand in the US. Yet, the market reaction in Hong Kong on 9/1 was dreadful. The stock is down10% on 4x average volume. I may be way off base but this one certainly looks like a long-term keeper to me. Any ideas on why the sharply negative reaction?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles

    by tinipupinni Aug 11, 2014 1:12 PM
    hrosenldgt56a hrosenldgt56a Sep 1, 2014 1:29 PM Flag

    Week 4 through Labor Day: Still #2 at the box office. Total take estimated at $166 Million. Yet, today (9/1) in Hong Kong Playmates Toys (0869.HK) is down 10% on 4 times the average volume. What gives?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • hrosenldgt56a by hrosenldgt56a Aug 28, 2014 7:29 PM Flag

    @$47 appears to be quite undervalued. If MHLD is below $12.40 you get 4.03 shares plus the $3.62 per year dividend to 9/16. MHLD closed today @ $12.11 so, the value of MHLDO is $48.80 plus the dividends. The market price is $47.05. "Mr. Market" appears to be misplacing this illiquid vehicle. Why the gap? If MLHL reaches $12.40, MHLDO holders receive $50. plus the dividends. MHLDO holders don't participate on the upside between $12.40 and $15.50 where they get $50. worth of MHLD. Above $15.50 the return is 3.23 shares.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles

    by tinipupinni Aug 11, 2014 1:12 PM
    hrosenldgt56a hrosenldgt56a Aug 26, 2014 3:51 PM Flag

    Where do you get the numbers behind "product is blowing out at retail?" Thanks. As I have noted in other posts Box Office was #1 for two weeks in a row and had staying power at #2 for the third week. $145 million gross and counting. If you do have a good source for the "retail" end I would appreciate it if you would share it. Thanks.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles

    by tinipupinni Aug 11, 2014 1:12 PM
    hrosenldgt56a hrosenldgt56a Aug 26, 2014 3:48 PM Flag

    Week 3 at the box office and the turtles finish in the number 2 spot. Gross is now $145 million and counting. Will toy sales follow?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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