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Grupo Casa Saba, S.A. de C.V. C Message Board

hrosenldgt56a 15 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 10, 2014 9:32 AM Member since: Feb 14, 1999
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  • hrosenldgt56a hrosenldgt56a Apr 10, 2014 9:32 AM Flag

    What could you possibly hope to gain with posts like this? Coty previously bid $24.75 BEFORE various negatives came to light. Do you really believe that you might have any influence on the stock price? Find something more productive to do with your time. By the way, I am long AVP.

  • Reply to

    Carl Icahn interested in AVON ?

    by davidsonisaackson Mar 29, 2014 7:14 PM
    hrosenldgt56a hrosenldgt56a Apr 8, 2014 11:58 AM Flag

    Beware hubris. Icarus thought that he could fly. I am long AVP but I have to go "ooch" when I see any pronouncements like "any rational person could tell…" The market is often not rational. Rational analysis of an irrational entity is by definition irrational.Remember,"the market" throws a lot of screwballs which look like they're coming right down the middle. Until the drop.

  • Reply to

    PBF Logistics

    by rjp3245 Apr 4, 2014 9:46 AM
    hrosenldgt56a hrosenldgt56a Apr 5, 2014 9:27 AM Flag

    The company is monetizing its holdings here. Financial engineering allows "the market" to place a higher valuation on these now tax-defered assets which were hidden in the company before. PBF will get fees as the General Partner and retain a % ownership of the MLP. Also, PBF will get IDR ( Incentive Distribution Rights) upon the MLP meeting certain goals. Check out the IPO Prospectus for details. All in all, I believe that this is a good thing for PBF shareholders.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to


    by frankh9201 Mar 8, 2014 5:22 PM
    hrosenldgt56a hrosenldgt56a Mar 14, 2014 11:16 AM Flag

    Yes, Deutche Bank took it down to hold when the price was $17.25. FYI, a good free source which updates ratings daily is The only "downside" to the site are pop-ups soliciting subscriptions. As to TCPC, I believe that the Russell decision is the biggest overhang on all of the BDC's as about 8% of each company is in the index. For TCP this represents about nine days of trading which is in the low end of the sector. FWIW, for now I'm in a watch and wait mode here. ( I do already own FSC in the sector.) Good luck.

  • Reply to


    by frankh9201 Mar 8, 2014 5:22 PM
    hrosenldgt56a hrosenldgt56a Mar 14, 2014 8:28 AM Flag

    1. Reaction to earnings. 2. Russell considering tossing all BDC's from their indices by the end of May unless the SEC loosens rules.

  • Reply to

    No debt....27 million in the bank

    by kyman65 Mar 12, 2014 7:00 AM
    hrosenldgt56a hrosenldgt56a Mar 13, 2014 4:44 PM Flag

    Where in the world did these last two posts from pierlkh come from? They have the same exact wording g as the harvey_tinkleman posts on the "What is it worth?" link. The ones on this link are non-sequitors. Any ideas? Is this a machine?Is it Yahoo tech glitches?

  • Reply to

    Bought Back in $5.50 , Oversold! Short Squeeze next

    by thetrdr Mar 12, 2014 3:55 PM
    hrosenldgt56a hrosenldgt56a Mar 12, 2014 4:31 PM Flag

    How did you determine that it is oversold? Thanks.

  • Reply to

    BSBR 55:1 Reverse Stock Split??

    by epbryanjoseph10 Mar 7, 2014 8:10 PM
    hrosenldgt56a hrosenldgt56a Mar 12, 2014 2:49 PM Flag

    How are the fundamentals any different before or after the split?

  • Reply to

    What's it worth?

    by hrosenldgt56a Mar 11, 2014 10:26 AM
    hrosenldgt56a hrosenldgt56a Mar 12, 2014 1:19 PM Flag

    Thank you for the response. I'm always trying to learn some new approaches. I've relied on quantifiable measures for the past forty years of market investing. While adding in (or rather trying to take advantage of) irrational movements (e.g. the drop in JNJ after the Tylenol scare or other headline panic reactions too numerous to mention), I still find my comfort level in basic fundamental analysis. While missing the tech mania when value was measured in "eyeballs" where at one point E-Toys had a ten billion dollar market capo with one billion dollars in sales while Toys-R-US had a one billion dollar market cap with ten billion dollars in sales because nobody was ever going to a store again, I also avoided the subsequent downturn. As the French say, "A chacun son gout." Good luck with your investments.

  • Reply to

    What's it worth?

    by hrosenldgt56a Mar 11, 2014 10:26 AM
    hrosenldgt56a hrosenldgt56a Mar 11, 2014 4:49 PM Flag

    I don't really understand your approach. How can you make an investment decision based on the notion that "our kinky point will arrive at some point." Maybe I'm trying to be too rational in an irrational world. Still, I believe there must be some way to come up with a "guesstimate" on projected earnings, revenues, dcf et al.

  • hrosenldgt56a by hrosenldgt56a Mar 11, 2014 10:26 AM Flag

    Yes:undoubtedly a big opportunity in China. Yes:a strong balance sheet. No: Earnings misses. No: Backlog down. Given that upside here is all on "promise for the future" how can a rational investor determine a fair price for the stock? Of course if we get a "momentum frenzy" in pollution companies as in social media et all there is no rationale. But, at this moment in time, how does one balance the present reality and somehow "quantify" the potential. Any rational ideas?

  • hrosenldgt56a by hrosenldgt56a Mar 3, 2014 10:20 AM Flag

    What is the exposure here?

  • hrosenldgt56a by hrosenldgt56a Feb 9, 2014 9:52 AM Flag

    The whole debate here concerns the ag cycle. Re: AGCO - current consensus estimates for 2015 are $5.43. However, this depends on the current up cycle continuing. One outlier who believe this is about to end is Wells Fargo analyst Andrew Casey. He firmly believes that all companies in this space have seen a peak in earnings power. His 2015 estimate for AGCO is $3.55. His outlook for DE is similarly dour. If he is correct individual stock picking will be trumped by the overall downtrend. Does anybody have a reliable crystal ball? As a long-long term investor in the simple demographic thesis of growing world food needs I plan to keep accumulating a cross section of agriculture related stocks long into the future. If Casey is correct, however, it will make for a bumpy hayride!

  • Reply to

    Norfolk Southern...

    by hrosenldgt56a Jan 16, 2014 4:08 PM
    hrosenldgt56a hrosenldgt56a Jan 22, 2014 9:28 AM Flag

    Thank you Stifel.

  • Reply to

    Norfolk Southern...

    by hrosenldgt56a Jan 16, 2014 4:08 PM
    hrosenldgt56a hrosenldgt56a Jan 19, 2014 3:24 PM Flag

    25-50 years regardless of the solar, wind and nuclear contributions. Don'y trust me. Just google "World Coal Usage" and you'll get more information than you can read in a year.

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