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Grupo Casa Saba, S.A. de C.V. C Message Board

hrosenldgt56a 30 posts  |  Last Activity: Sep 18, 2014 4:41 PM Member since: Feb 14, 1999
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  • hrosenldgt56a by hrosenldgt56a Sep 18, 2014 4:41 PM Flag

    from cargill et al seems strange to me. The US approved the genetically altered corn seed in 2010. China won't accept this product. Why did anybody buy the seed if they were concerned that China wouldn't accept it. Mexico, Japan et al do accept it. Why should Syngenta be responsible for this? I don't get it. I do understand the latest negative story where Ingredion said that it wouldn't buy this corn product. They can do what they like. This will further cut demand. Is Syngenta also responsible for Ingredion's decision?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    some people can't read

    by jborg4444 Sep 8, 2014 6:34 AM
    hrosenldgt56a hrosenldgt56a Sep 8, 2014 1:31 PM Flag

    As I mentioned, I am not at all short this company but WAY IN ( My third largest position.) based on the fundamentals I listed in my response to your last message. I also posted my long-term sentiment as Strong Buy. However, I try to look at all possible outcomes. Hey, what the heck, if you're paranoid it doesn't mean someone isn't after you. Good luck to us both with this investment. I send virtual Moon Cakes your way on this Autumn Festival Day.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    sales off the turtel shalls ?

    by jborg4444 Sep 7, 2014 5:43 AM
    hrosenldgt56a hrosenldgt56a Sep 7, 2014 9:59 AM Flag

    Again, where is the information to support the statement that "they are selling like hotcakes?" What is the "operating problem" to which you refer? AsSarah Peller used to say, "Where;s the beef?" Yes, sales were up but a certain percentage of this is in preparation for the holiday season. In the interim earnings release the company itself says that second half sales will be above last year but not nearly as much as the first half. I am very long this stock based on: 1. The solid dividend which the company aims to keep at 33% of income. 2. The long term prospects for the franchise with Turtles on TV planned for 2015 and another movie for 2016. 3. The low valuation in comparison to its peers. Please, if you haven't, read the entire interim report and analyze the numbers yourself.

  • Reply to

    NEW SDRL HOLDER

    by anal.lyst Sep 5, 2014 9:51 AM
    hrosenldgt56a hrosenldgt56a Sep 5, 2014 3:31 PM Flag

    to "diversify" with Fredericksen look at MHG, a fishy tale.

  • Reply to

    great numbers

    by jborg4444 Sep 2, 2014 9:37 AM
    hrosenldgt56a hrosenldgt56a Sep 3, 2014 9:03 AM Flag

    Short-term, I was WAY WRONG! Ever since the interim earnings were released the stock price has done nothing but tumble 17% on 2-4x normal volume. Why?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    great numbers

    by jborg4444 Sep 2, 2014 9:37 AM
    hrosenldgt56a hrosenldgt56a Sep 2, 2014 10:36 AM Flag

    Please see my reply to your last post. I am a long time shareholder and would like to see stock price appreciation as much as anyone but IMHO I don't think that "sales up 40% we should be over .50" is a very thoughtful analysis. Have you read the interim report? Have you thought about the numbers? Have you listened to the company's projections for the rest of the year? Even the most basic due diligence requires more than just a focus on one number out of context. Good luck with your investments.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles

    by tinipupinni Aug 11, 2014 1:12 PM
    hrosenldgt56a hrosenldgt56a Sep 1, 2014 3:25 PM Flag

    Go to the Playmates Web Site. Full interim results are available. See what you think. If anyone is interested I have posted some thoughts on the PMTYF bulletin board. Good hunting.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    PMTYF is a SLEEPER

    by jborg4444 Aug 20, 2014 10:35 AM
    hrosenldgt56a hrosenldgt56a Sep 1, 2014 2:16 PM Flag

    One last thought. I applied the normalized tax rate of 33% to all of 2013 earnings. EPS at that rate would have been HK$.30 per share versus the reported HK$.45. With Playmates closing at HK$2.53 as of the 9/1 close this gives us an adjusted p/e of 8.4. The dividend without any extras is 4%. While admittedly much larger and more diversified MAT and HAS have double the p/e's. This still appears to be the best value among world toy companies especially given the visibility of growth.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    PMTYF is a SLEEPER

    by jborg4444 Aug 20, 2014 10:35 AM
    hrosenldgt56a hrosenldgt56a Sep 1, 2014 2:04 PM Flag

    Check out the 8/29 earnings release on their website. EPS is down to HK$.146 versus HK$.18 last year but solely because of a normalized tax rate as opposed to a credit last year. Sales were up 40%! An interim dividend of HK$.05 was declared. The company expects good sales into the holiday season. If they perform like last year it is likely that an additional extra interim dividend would follow. The first half dividend this year was an extra HK$.10 in addition to the regular HK$.05. Last year was 0. Strong second half sales are expected due to both the strong showing of the TMNT movie, #1 at the box office the first two weeks and showing legs as it only fell to #2 the next two. Total box office is over $166 Million. The Nickelodeon TV show has top ratings. Season 4 will debut in the fall of 2015 so the franchise for toys should continue strong. Another movie release is also planned. TMNT toys are the #1 action brand in the US. Yet, the market reaction in Hong Kong on 9/1 was dreadful. The stock is down10% on 4x average volume. I may be way off base but this one certainly looks like a long-term keeper to me. Any ideas on why the sharply negative reaction?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles

    by tinipupinni Aug 11, 2014 1:12 PM
    hrosenldgt56a hrosenldgt56a Sep 1, 2014 1:29 PM Flag

    Week 4 through Labor Day: Still #2 at the box office. Total take estimated at $166 Million. Yet, today (9/1) in Hong Kong Playmates Toys (0869.HK) is down 10% on 4 times the average volume. What gives?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • hrosenldgt56a by hrosenldgt56a Aug 28, 2014 7:29 PM Flag

    @$47 appears to be quite undervalued. If MHLD is below $12.40 you get 4.03 shares plus the $3.62 per year dividend to 9/16. MHLD closed today @ $12.11 so, the value of MHLDO is $48.80 plus the dividends. The market price is $47.05. "Mr. Market" appears to be misplacing this illiquid vehicle. Why the gap? If MLHL reaches $12.40, MHLDO holders receive $50. plus the dividends. MHLDO holders don't participate on the upside between $12.40 and $15.50 where they get $50. worth of MHLD. Above $15.50 the return is 3.23 shares.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles

    by tinipupinni Aug 11, 2014 1:12 PM
    hrosenldgt56a hrosenldgt56a Aug 26, 2014 3:51 PM Flag

    Where do you get the numbers behind "product is blowing out at retail?" Thanks. As I have noted in other posts Box Office was #1 for two weeks in a row and had staying power at #2 for the third week. $145 million gross and counting. If you do have a good source for the "retail" end I would appreciate it if you would share it. Thanks.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles

    by tinipupinni Aug 11, 2014 1:12 PM
    hrosenldgt56a hrosenldgt56a Aug 26, 2014 3:48 PM Flag

    Week 3 at the box office and the turtles finish in the number 2 spot. Gross is now $145 million and counting. Will toy sales follow?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Small company with a BIG future

    by hrosenldgt56a May 28, 2014 9:44 PM
    hrosenldgt56a hrosenldgt56a Aug 18, 2014 4:39 PM Flag

    Excellent (6/14) second quarter. AGT left the estimates in the dust. The plan to move up the value chain is moving along well. The Ingredion/Cargill deals will boost revenues and earnings. The weather induced slippage in Quarter 1 is history. The only caveat is that the stock price has shot up after the news. Listen to the conference call and do your due diligence. This is one to keep for the future.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles

    by tinipupinni Aug 11, 2014 1:12 PM
    hrosenldgt56a hrosenldgt56a Aug 18, 2014 4:32 PM Flag

    #1 at the Box Office for the Second Week in a row. Will the boys buy more toys?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles

    by tinipupinni Aug 11, 2014 1:12 PM
    hrosenldgt56a hrosenldgt56a Aug 16, 2014 9:35 AM Flag

    I have owned this stock for quite a while. Given the low p/e and the dividend to boot, I expected the price to move up in anticipation of the Turtle latest release. Playmates peaked on July 30 @ HK$3.49. Yet, from the Friday before the film's release through the Monday after, the stock price fell precipitously from HK$3.20 to a low of $2.60 (18%). I thought that there initial drop was due to bad reviews. However, when box office receipts of $65 million blew away estimates of $40 million ( I guess 6-10 year old boys don't care about reviews!) I expected a quick return to previous highs. However, we seem to have settled in the HK$2.80-2.90 range. I agree that this is a long term buying opportunity as Playmates appears to her one of the best values in the entertainment sector, if not the world. Toys sales should grow nicely from this Turtles surge and there are already plans for a 2016 follow-up movie. This franchise has legs. The Financial Times analyst estimates see dividends of HK$.20 in 2014 and 2015. On top of capital appreciation, you get 7% to wait. The extreme volatility is very unsettling so patience is needed.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Robin Williams

    by roustyboy Aug 12, 2014 3:36 PM
    hrosenldgt56a hrosenldgt56a Aug 13, 2014 9:19 AM Flag

    Yes, but, that final decision must be made with a clear mind, as in the case of a terminal disease patient. Although you might see it as a cliche, the idea that suicide is a permanent solution to (allow me to modify) what MAY be a temporary problem, is still true.

  • Reply to

    Robin Williams

    by roustyboy Aug 12, 2014 3:36 PM
    hrosenldgt56a hrosenldgt56a Aug 12, 2014 4:31 PM Flag

    Sadly, suicide is a permanent solution to a temporary problem. Unless you've experienced the moment leading up to the decision, you have no idea how deep the pit of helplessness goes. The mind is its own country: it can make a hell of heaven or a heaven of hell. And most importantly, judge not, lest ye be judged. Someone a lot wiser than me said that. Long term sentiment on XCO is irrelevant. Long term sentiment on life is much more profound. Be well.

  • hrosenldgt56a by hrosenldgt56a Aug 11, 2014 1:25 PM Flag

    Chile is the Number 2 salmon exporter to Russia. As sanctions are applied to Norway, Russia will import more Chilean salmon. MHG is Chile's largest exporter from its Patagonian farms. Will Russia allow these exports in?

  • hrosenldgt56a by hrosenldgt56a Aug 9, 2014 3:01 PM Flag

    Why not raise the dividend. SEM announced a massive repurchase of $500 million through December 2016. This is 20-25% of the company at this price. Maybe a smaller repurchase with a 25% hike in the dividend would have gone down better with "The Street."

    Sentiment: Buy

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