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Grupo Casa Saba, S.A. de C.V. C Message Board

hrosenldgt56a 14 posts  |  Last Activity: Feb 26, 2015 10:44 AM Member since: Feb 14, 1999
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  • Reply to

    Dividend cut

    by tsar_wars Feb 19, 2015 7:06 AM
    hrosenldgt56a hrosenldgt56a Feb 26, 2015 10:44 AM Flag

    Why even waste the electricity to respond?

  • Reply to

    Cheap, cheap, cheep….

    by hrosenldgt56a Feb 13, 2015 12:24 PM
    hrosenldgt56a hrosenldgt56a Feb 22, 2015 1:07 PM Flag

    The volume and price appear to be ticking up in mid-February.

  • hrosenldgt56a by hrosenldgt56a Feb 13, 2015 12:24 PM Flag

    …but why? Trailing earnings through mid-year are HK$.273. At todays close of HK$1.55, this is p/e of 5.7. The dividend is HK$.05 twice a year. The filed is 6.4%. The company also give additional dividends as kickers. Last year was an additional HK$.10. Ninja Turtles were the #1 best toy seller during the 2014 Christmas season. A host of new toys tied to the Turtle franchise are being introduced at this year's NY Toy Fair. Nickeloden is pressing on with the television series and more movies are slated for the next two years. Estimates range from HK$.30 in 2015 to HK$.38 in 2016. This is a 25% growth rate. This might be the most fundamentally undervalued stock in the world. But, hey, what do I know? Not much. I thought this was fundamentally undervalued at $HK .32 which is my average cost. So, am I just "talking my book" or is there real value here?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Ouch !

    by bucki_789 Feb 12, 2015 9:38 AM
    hrosenldgt56a hrosenldgt56a Feb 12, 2015 4:22 PM Flag

    From ouch to scratch my head… given all the -'s, why the + reaction in the stock price on large volume; DBD misses estimates to the December quarter and lowers estimates for 2015. What Alice in Wonderland world is this?

  • Reply to

    10X normal volume and NO news??

    by jmedwick Feb 9, 2015 7:33 PM
    hrosenldgt56a hrosenldgt56a Feb 9, 2015 10:09 PM Flag

    The volume has been increasing for the last two weeks with 50% above average each week. Earnings on January 26th met estimates. However, the company lowered estimates for FY'15 to $4.45 - $4.65 versus consensus of $4.76 so fundamentals can't account for this move. Vertical Research put a Hold with a $61 price target on CR, so this doesn't explain it either. Keybanc actually removed their price target of $75.S&P does have a Buy with a $79 target. Please see my response to the January 15 post, "Why has the price of CR been declining" for my thoughts on that topic. On the fundamentals others of this ilk were trading at 15x earnings while CR was below 12. So, maybe just catch up to the group. That still wouldn't explain the volume. I e-mailed investor relations today asking if they knew why the volume and price surged and if they were going to issue a press release. No response. Not unexpected as I requested material from their IR section of the website over a month ago and also got no response. CR is still is good, solid company so let's wait and see how this plays out. GLTA.

  • Reply to

    Huh? As one frustrated investor….

    by hrosenldgt56a Jan 29, 2015 9:41 AM
    hrosenldgt56a hrosenldgt56a Feb 9, 2015 10:16 AM Flag

    Isn't the Myriad settlement also a positive?

  • I don't get this one at all: EPS beat. Raise the dividend. Announce 2015 estimates 8-15% above consensus. At the low end of '15 estimates the p/e is under 15. New alliances in genetic testing. Who is selling DGX now and , more importantly, why?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Why has the price of CR has been declining?

    by zavadsky1965 Jan 15, 2015 10:50 AM
    hrosenldgt56a hrosenldgt56a Jan 19, 2015 3:14 PM Flag

    One last thought. Earnings are due on the 27th. They have missed estimate for the past two quarters. Just one caveat.

  • Reply to

    Why has the price of CR has been declining?

    by zavadsky1965 Jan 15, 2015 10:50 AM
    hrosenldgt56a hrosenldgt56a Jan 19, 2015 3:13 PM Flag

    It appears that CR is caught up in the "toss anything with O&G exposure" panic. Although they didn't mention CR, Barron's had an interesting take this weekend on similar stocks. They recommended FLS as one. If estimates are correct (They are in a downtrend now) then the p/e based on $4.80 in 2015 earnings is 11.2. This is the low end of a multi-year range.The only time it was lower was during the 2009 sell off. The company has raised the dividends for 11 years. The yield is 2.5%. The only time it was higher was during the 2009 sell off. See a pattern? Since earnings bottomed in 2009 the company has raised earnings each year. The biggest question is macro: Will the world economy slow this year and, if so, by how much? FWIW, Value Line rated it a #1 for timeliness in this week's edition. So, all told it seems cheaper than peers but, maybe, not cheap enough if world growth slows. Good luck. H.

  • Reply to

    O&G Exposure

    by hrosenldgt56a Jan 18, 2015 2:09 PM
    hrosenldgt56a hrosenldgt56a Jan 19, 2015 10:34 AM Flag

    Than you for your input.It's just my style but I usually hold quality companies like EMR "forever." Each is no more than 2% of my portfolio. This holding period is much harder with cyclicals than with defensive stocks like JNJ. However, I have found that when I do sell quality companies I often find myself later asking, "Now why did I sell that?" That's why I buy/sell around the edges based on valuation. A human tendency is also not to want to buy back a stock which you sold for a lower price. This is totally irrational as the current valuation parameters have absolutely nothing to do with whatever price you bought/sold a stock for. Yet, human psychology often prevails. With EMR there are a series of questions: 1. How deep or long will the macro downturn be? 2. Re:O&G, How fast can they adjust their expenses to account for any order slowdown? 3. Will management UPOD the earnings to bring down expectations so that can "beat." This is SOP as companies have to pay the Street's quarterly numbers game. Thanks again for the input. Good luck with your investing. H.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • hrosenldgt56a by hrosenldgt56a Jan 18, 2015 2:09 PM Flag

    I have looked through the 10K but can't get a handle on actually how much of their revenues and earnings are tied to O&G. Or what % of their O%G exposure is really affected (i.e How much is downstream? In what areas of O&G do they do the most business?) Barron's had an interesting take this weekend when they pointed to PCP and FLS as being taken down too much because of supposed O&G exposure. EMR is a strong long-term core holding for me. I'm trying to see if its a good idea to trade around the edges. Thanks for any ideas on this topic.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • hrosenldgt56a by hrosenldgt56a Jan 14, 2015 11:03 AM Flag

    The stock market price of all of the refiners has been going south lately despite the precipitous fall in oil prices. Today is no exception. Is the crack spread narrowing? Is the price received for refined products going down more than the company is saving in lower oil input costs? Does anybody know of any sources for real information on this most important aspect for refiners? Thanks.

  • hrosenldgt56a by hrosenldgt56a Jan 10, 2015 11:30 AM Flag

    In this week's Barron's Research Reports, Morgan Stanley said BUY Steel Dynamics because their input costs (scrap steel) will drop more than their pricing. Therefore, margins will widen. They steel that the Street doesn't recognize this. Does NUE have the same dynamics?

  • Reply to

    Down 6% on a big up day for market. No news?

    by maddysdad05 Jan 8, 2015 3:42 PM
    hrosenldgt56a hrosenldgt56a Jan 8, 2015 4:29 PM Flag

    Sympathy for ADM downgrade?

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