I am a fundamental long-term value investor. I have just started looking to add a few little "kickers" to my portfolio. I was drawn to CSBR when I noticed the insider financing @$.50 + warrants. However, it appears to be more of a private fiefdom than a public company with a spread of $.45 - .51 and many days not even trading. As there are no earnings there is no p/e. @$.50 the p/s ratio is over 4x. The book value is about $.16. I am trying to evaluate the "burn rate." It seems that the $10+ million in cash is good until late 2014. Do you use this calculation in your analysis? What factors do you feel are most important here? Does the company have a competitive product? Is it even possible for someone with little specialized knowledge of the field to determine this? Does the company need FDA approval for any of its processes or is it just a matter of getting out there and marketing? Sorry for all the questions but you seem to have an interest here. Any insights would be appreciated. H.
How do you determine this? I am early on in the investment learning process and would appreciate any guidance you could give on this indicator. Thanks. H.
Thanks for the advice. I will consider it...but not for too long. Do you think that fundamental analysis is important in investment decision making? Do the technical and psychological factors outweigh the basic direction of the business? Should you think like a business owner or treat stocks as electronic blips across a screen to be flipped like baseball cards? Is it better to take a long-term view like an accountant with his green eyeshade pouring over the numbers or a short term "twitter"? Have all of the current "devices" killed the ability to think more deeply. Maybe I'll stay up all night thinking about thinking. Good luck with your investment decisions. H.
I Still can't get a handle on "continuing operating earnings." IBES is using $.13 for the quarter but this can't be right. As to the future, IBES now has kicked up estimates to $.04 for this fiscal year (the low end of RAD's own guidance) and $.11 for 2/15 Fiscal Year. Yes, RAD is on the right track but some of the price targets on this board are pricing in a level of investor optimism and positive psychology unseen since the tech bubble. What is the real fundamental value of RAD?
Thank you for the help. COGS for the 3/13Q is $4.4 Billion vs. 3/12Q of $5.4 Billion. To get an accurate number would you just add $ 175 million to 3/13 COGS and deduct $121 from last year?
I try to take a variety of considerations from the fundamentals to the psychological into my investment decisions. However, I do believe that over the long run the company's ability to grow the bottom line is the key to stock performance. As to this tiny detail, I am just trying to get a handle on the real operating eps as of this moment. I am not an accountant but I didn't think I was that dense! I'm proving myself wrong. Maybe an accounting course would help.
Thank you for the discussion. I must be thick but I am still trying to figure out where the accounting gain is embedded in the STATEMENT OF OPERATIONS. The bottom line EPS number does include this but where? The only number that seems large enough to account for this is COST OF GOODS SOLD which is almost $1 Billion less than last year. However, this is also down because of the lower cost of generics. Any help would be appreciated. Thanks again.
How did you arrive at a $.10 operating loss? I am trying to understand the results but cannot determine where the inventory adjustment/gain is on the income statement. I am still in the learning stage and am finding this very confusing. I appreciate your time in parsing out the true operating earnings. TIA
What do you mean by this comment? Did the "big boys" take out stops to accumulate the stock? Won't HXM benefit from this? Any ideas on the bottom line effect? Thanks.
I agree with you that RAD is a good long-term turnaround story. If RAD can achieve drugstore industry margins the stock could be worth $4.50 - $6.00. However,the problem is in the timing and the volatility from here to there. A lot of "good news" has been baked into this initial 100% move: 1. The positive earnings in the November quarter and subsequent estimate revisions upwards. 2. The new position by Blue Mountain. 3. Moody'd upgrade to a positive outlook. 4. Improved store performance due to the loyalty program growth. 5. The closing of underperforming stores. 6. Most importantly, to me, is the refinancing. RAD must now prove that these developments can lead to a sustainable bottom line growth. Whether this is "To be or not to be" is the big question.
Just another thought. Why not plain old profit taking when this admittedly speculative investment is up 100% since the December tax selling season hit?
I am long RAD. I would appreciate it if you could help me understand your analysis of further shorting. Where can shorts borrow stock at this level? What are the rules for shorting sub-$5.00 stocks? Why would shorts want to take the risk at this level when the most they could make was $1.80 with unlimited loss potential?
...was $3.5 million. Net loss included a charge to deferred income tax expense of $3.3 million, $1.9 million of which is due to a reserve for an uncertain tax position and $1.4 million was attributed to the write off of a deferred tax asset." I would greatly appreciate it if someone would kindly translate this. How does it actually affect PESI's day to day operations? Is this a one-time event? In analyzing operating results does one back this out? I am in a learning process. Thanks in advance.
This one little line in the press release appears to be underestimated. Laquinimod appears to "increase myelinated axons and mature oligodendrocytes with potential RESTORATIVE properties." Has anyone seen anything even approaching this in any MS treatment?
The last five years are now history. The more important question now is how Mexico will fare over the next five years. Nieto does appear to be a man with a plan and he appears to have broad political support. I believe that TMM is well positioned to benefit from the growth that PEMEX will see in the Gulf if they are allowed to partner with "big oil." That said, TMM trades in very low volume and the entire market cap of the company is only $20 million. I hope that your "long haul" play works out over the longer haul. Buena suerte.