Yes, Deutche Bank took it down to hold when the price was $17.25. FYI, a good free source which updates ratings daily is anlaystratings.net. The only "downside" to the site are pop-ups soliciting subscriptions. As to TCPC, I believe that the Russell decision is the biggest overhang on all of the BDC's as about 8% of each company is in the index. For TCP this represents about nine days of trading which is in the low end of the sector. FWIW, for now I'm in a watch and wait mode here. ( I do already own FSC in the sector.) Good luck.
Where in the world did these last two posts from pierlkh come from? They have the same exact wording g as the harvey_tinkleman posts on the "What is it worth?" link. The ones on this link are non-sequitors. Any ideas? Is this a machine?Is it Yahoo tech glitches?
Thank you for the response. I'm always trying to learn some new approaches. I've relied on quantifiable measures for the past forty years of market investing. While adding in (or rather trying to take advantage of) irrational movements (e.g. the drop in JNJ after the Tylenol scare or other headline panic reactions too numerous to mention), I still find my comfort level in basic fundamental analysis. While missing the tech mania when value was measured in "eyeballs" where at one point E-Toys had a ten billion dollar market capo with one billion dollars in sales while Toys-R-US had a one billion dollar market cap with ten billion dollars in sales because nobody was ever going to a store again, I also avoided the subsequent downturn. As the French say, "A chacun son gout." Good luck with your investments.
I don't really understand your approach. How can you make an investment decision based on the notion that "our kinky point will arrive at some point." Maybe I'm trying to be too rational in an irrational world. Still, I believe there must be some way to come up with a "guesstimate" on projected earnings, revenues, dcf et al.
Yes:undoubtedly a big opportunity in China. Yes:a strong balance sheet. No: Earnings misses. No: Backlog down. Given that upside here is all on "promise for the future" how can a rational investor determine a fair price for the stock? Of course if we get a "momentum frenzy" in pollution companies as in social media et all there is no rationale. But, at this moment in time, how does one balance the present reality and somehow "quantify" the potential. Any rational ideas?
The whole debate here concerns the ag cycle. Re: AGCO - current consensus estimates for 2015 are $5.43. However, this depends on the current up cycle continuing. One outlier who believe this is about to end is Wells Fargo analyst Andrew Casey. He firmly believes that all companies in this space have seen a peak in earnings power. His 2015 estimate for AGCO is $3.55. His outlook for DE is similarly dour. If he is correct individual stock picking will be trumped by the overall downtrend. Does anybody have a reliable crystal ball? As a long-long term investor in the simple demographic thesis of growing world food needs I plan to keep accumulating a cross section of agriculture related stocks long into the future. If Casey is correct, however, it will make for a bumpy hayride!
25-50 years regardless of the solar, wind and nuclear contributions. Don'y trust me. Just google "World Coal Usage" and you'll get more information than you can read in a year.
Sorry, but coal will remain the number one worldwide fuel source for electricity generation for the next 25-50 years. Google it!
Merrill down to Underperform. You can get current analyst ratings from analyst ratings.net. No charge. Good luck with your investing.
Do you consider it "bogus" that in intermodal shipments from Asia will now come through the Panama Canal and be offloaded in east coast ports rather than being directed through Los Angeles? How many consumers are there east of the Mississippi? What is the cheapest way to deliver all of these goods throughout the northeast? Will yesterday's overreaction (my analysis) be shortly reversed? We'll see.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
…is the "Beast of the East." NSC was also downgraded by Stifel without even posting earnings. NSC at under $88 is now on sale at 14x '14 earnings estimates. This a a long term quality holding. Looking out the next two years the company will benefit from increased coal shipments as the price of natgas rises and a big jump in East Coast commerce when the Panama Canal renovation is completed in 2015. Even with the downgrade Stifel has a price target of $94. On January 13, FBR raised its rating to Outperform with a target of $115.
Thank you management for your excellent work. Kudos to the whole team. These guys tell you exactly what they will do and they do it! Recent growth developments: A second production line at Minot announced on December 3 will double capacity. The synergistic acquisition of CLIC International will move AGT up the value chain and make it a more fully diversified food company. This is a 20% a year growth company. Put your own multiple on it for a target price.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
You are surely one of a kind. Sixty years in the business and you have 90% of your assets in an aggressive growth fund! So much for asset allocation. You must have started investing at age 5 for retirement when you reach the 80's. I've been investing for half of your time but find myself much more conservative as I age. Of a plethora of investors I've known over the years, however, the ones who really made it big did run very concentrated portfolios. One friend put ALL of his money (about $175K at the time) into Force Protection at $1.00 a share. He stayed with it, spoke with other shareholders, attended meetings and had laser like focus. The cashed out at $32.00 with $6 Million! Quite a run. But, I'm sure many other with the same approach went to Zero. Just a little anecdote on going against conventional wisdom. Good luck with your investments.