that's right: it's all about how much money you expect this company to rake in before it's royalties expire and it's no longer bringing in any money. They have to net another 40m to cover the current market cap. I say that'll happen. The big news here is that management is indeed committed to paying out dividends, instead of trying to steal the royalty stream away from stockholders, like might've happened previously with the IP under past management. The belrose deal is unclear--- there may be more value here. I see it as a conservative play, nice margin of safety, small chance of big return. A small holding for me.
I think many veterans have sold out. Even I sold half my position at about 1.70. I think the divi announcement is great news-- shows that new management is committed to paying divis. However, with the fast depleting royalties, there isn't much upside here. Unless, miraculously, something comes from the belrose deal.
Gild apparently isn't too worried about launching their drug before the patent issues are resolved. Risky. They're just going to let idix bleed and probably try to renegotiate when idix is in an even worse financial situation. Idix will have to raise cash in 2014. I hope idix plays it conservative and accepts a low gild offer or a low buyout (like 1.5b).
Enzn is a disaster of a company. PEG sales declining sharply every Q. New Hep C drugs coming soon. Royalties expiring pretty soon. I've owned this once-promising company for years. At this point, I'm not selling anymore, but only because the market cap is so low. I have no faith. They have 21m in cash, which is nice. They netted 8m in royalties this Q. If they can cut back further in expenses, continue to get a decent royalty payment, and actually pay out dividends as promised, you should at least break even here. Maybe some wildcard--like a sale-- will put you into the green.
sure. I sold some of mine in the 1.70's and added to my Idix and thrx positions. this company is impossible to trust. also, did you see Merck's 3Q PEG sales-- down 30+%-- that doesn't bode well for the future dividends (that, by the way, were promised by the old board-- so who knows what's going to happen now with a brand new 3-member board.) I'm not selling out bc i'm curious to see how this stock plays out and it's just so low right now. I want to sell it-- most poorly managed company over the last 4 yrs-- I've never seen worse management of capital and IP.
fair enough---but, the pps had fallen from 5-3 in a month-- why suddenly the sentiment change? was there some kind of revelation?
i've read your posts-- lets hop the 2nd part of the patent dispute is kinder to us than the 1st part
are these prices per share correct? Looks like he wasn't the one who drove the morning action from 3.26-3.98. How do you explain the huge move up BEFORE Klarman started buying??? Interesting.
Also, it looks like he passed the 20% mark a month or so ago, so why didn't we hear about this 10 days afterwards? this is confusing.
during the last 60 days? I think he bought just about all of these new shares yesterday? right? had he passed the 20% ownership mark prior to yesterday, wouldn't we have heard about it?
I still own all my AVEO shares... decent cash position.... TIVO works, but the FDA was irrational, if you ask me... IP is worth something... Klarman still owns a lot, though he has sold some. Certainly no THRX, but it's worth a shot... you might like it-- it fits right in with your picks, though I know you don't like it.
Yea, thrx is my biggest holding and I've owned it since it was below 20. Too bad i bought aveo in the 14s, or I'd be up a bigger chunk overall now.
Jabber-- what do you think of the company's actual drugs in development? I appreciate you sharing, but I'm a long-term investor, not a swing trader. I know they have a number of drugs in development, but do you have any knowledge of whether they're promising? Insider buying is promising, but sometimes insiders get tunnel vision and make bad bets. What do you think this company's actual drugs? Forget the charts and insider buying-- how good is their actual product?
Porter's response (I'm not sure what to make of it):
His main boy on the BoD was Alex Denner, who had managed several biotech take-overs for Icahn for five years. Denner made it to CoBoD in 2011; he was on the board when Enzon sold off its production unit. Icahn also placed George Hebard on the board, giving him 2 votes (just over one fourth) of the seven-member board.
The problem for Icahn was that Denner quit Icahn's firm after becoming Chairman. It was after Denner's defection that Icahn announced to the SEC that he had asked to discuss with Enzon's board matters about operations and planning, which would seem to indicate that he at least felt that he had lost substantial direct influence on the company.
It was after Icahn's request that Enzon effectively shut down and started looking for buyers, selling its most significant proprietary technology to Belrose, including all patents, rights, etc., for $800 K + some possible royalties.
Check Icahn's history, and you'll find it is replete with companies that went to lengths to nullify his attempts to take over, or at least to minimize his influence. Enzon is just one of those that opted to commit suicide rather than let Icahn liquidate them as he pleased.
Badbilly-- i posed the question to Porter and he was kind enough to respond. Go check it out. He has an interesting theory and one I've never considered before.
Jabber-- thanks for your opinions. Do you not see value in idix? I see so many catalysts here... a very risky play--which I feel like gets ignored often on this board-- but with such huge upside that it's a no brainer to have at least a small position at these levels.