I think it would be very telling if insiders start selling shares into this upsurge. If that happened, I would say there is no deal and that would eject the momo speculators who are on board. Of course, I don't think they could sell anything unless it was prearranged as we are going into earnings season. Sorry, just thinking out loud.
This came from the CMT website under SEC filings:
The decision to terminate the stockholder rights plan was the result of careful analysis including input from corporate governance experts and the company's shareholders. “The termination of the stockholder rights plan demonstrates the Board's commitment to best practices in corporate governance. Our decision incorporates valuable shareholder feedback, while ensuring that we have appropriate measures and policies in place to manage our business effectively,” said Kevin L. Barnett, president and chief executive officer.
I can't make heads or tails of it. I think he must be a cousin of Alan Greenspan.
I think there is an 80% chance we see a deal by the close of business Tuesday. The volume spike (as noted) pre-announcement is very fishy. It could very well be the acquirer picking up shares at less than the agreed upon price. I think they want to give a premium to present shareholders and the only way to do that is to make the announcement as soon as possible. The price of the takeover was acceptable, the jobs of management were sufficiently protected or the parachute was acceptable to the BOD's. That's the real reason for deconstructing the poison pill. If we are all thinking on the same wavelength and this does come to pass, could a second bidder emerge?
Sentiment: Strong Buy
The poison pill got removed this afternoon. Maybe they think that shareholders will get rewarded if a big fish wants to swallow them. At least we are starting from a higher base. One can only guess at what mgt is thinking. Still holding all my shares. Sold shares pre-2005; none since.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Here is a part of the CMT acquisition article that I found intriguing: "D-LFT technology is still growing in North America, where applications are concentrated in the automotive industry." Just last week, the WSJ had a front page article that said that 7 car makers had located plants in Mexico since 2008. The reason cited were lower labor costs and Mexico's free trade agreements. CMT has a plant in Mexico. Analysts projected that Mexico's 3.2M cars and light trucks produced rising 50% by 2018. Now that I think about it, I think there were some 10s in that gin rummy pile as well.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I think we need to look at the pros and cons of the deal because I think there is good and bad. That it is immediately accretive to earnings is a plus. In the most recent 10K, the top 4 customers accounted for 87% of sales; with the acquisition that number reduces to 78%. Their head count rises from 1490 to 1590 while adding sales in excess of 10%. The P/S is .75 ($15M for $20M of additional sales); not expensive. We also have no knowledge of the historical figures of the profitability of the acquisition. There may have been a compression of the earnings in the last few years. Overall, it does not sound like a resounding positive, but it does get their foot in the door of other customers they have not been servicing. Management is not going to show their cards and overexplain the reasons for this move. I think it is obvious to the LONGS that they had to do something. On the surface they just picked up the gin rummy pile for the 2's, but I think they have decided to do small acquisitions. Barnett said in the past he hopes to double sales sometime in the future; this is just the first move.
If you look back, it has been a very stable company. This is my fear going forward. The company is not obligated to report earnings once delisted. I would call Investor Relations for the company to ask about their intentions. You may gain valuable insight that may put your mind at ease. You may not get that opportunity in the future. Otherwise, the share price may drift down. If it were to go to $15-20, you may get a buyout at a price higher than that, but lower than today. Their intention may be to take this profitable company private but at a lower price. I have dabbled in smaller stocks and every situation is unique. I don't mind if things are illiquid for a time, but always keep in mind your exit strategy. I wish you the best with this one.
You realize this company is "going dark." That means delisting and listing on the pink sheets which is often causes a drop in share price. The company does it to reduce the costs associated with filings/mailings etc. They also have more leeway in executive compensation and less reporting responsibility. Know what you own. This one isn't for me at this time. You should take a second look at your own position. It will be less liquid going forward.
Fourteen months ago on this board I said I saw RCKY as a value stock. While then @ $14, I said I thought it could go to $20 between Jan '15 and Dec '15. You kept bashing the stock and claiming it would go to $10. If RCKY was your old girlfriend, she no longer wants to date you. You were right for only so long before the fundamentals played out. For anybody that has made money on this stock it is your choice whether to take profits. It has had a HUGE run up in a short period of time. Personally, I think it will go much higher, but investors will need to see this enthusiasm confirmed in future increases of EPS. At times last year I thought the board had overpromised in their CC's Finally, RCKY has delivered and may I suggest all LONGS send their condolences to Wet Nappy. Everyone is admiring your old girlfriend. She's too good for you. It's time to move on. I suggest everyone get a restraining order and put Wet Nappy on ignore.
I think we could have an uninterrupted conversation on this message board for years to come. This is a small stock. They raise their dividends every three years or so. The stock price appears to be stable, the current price being near the high point. Liquidity is low, so you have to be patient when buying and selling this stock. Do they report earnings with an earnings release as other companies do? Maybe you can explain the reverse stock split followed by a reverse of the reverse. They have a 1 for 600 split to be followed by a 600 for 1 split. They cash out the small stakeholders by making them hold greater than 600 shares, but then after the second maneuver small investors can repurchase the stock in small lots. Is this because too many investors are not holding their stock in "street" name and this causes the company additional costs to mail dividend checks, etc.? I can't think of any other reason unless they want to somehow change something with the stock class. What is your interpretation of this?
I would like to add a few details from memory to this informative backstory on SLP. Walt and his wife own approximately 40% of the shares. To provide himself with some cash, without selling his stake, he created a dividend to reward himself and us shareholders. A one time dividend, in my opinion, would have been bad for the company. An ongoing dividend has been very beneficial to the share price. I would be hard pressed to name another company that split their shares 2 for 1 in the $10-$12 range. Oh, and about two years later, SLP did it again. My understanding is that was done to improve the float of shares on the market (increase the share count). Set a price you are willing to pay and buy this stock when it meets your target.
How is Alaska treating you these days? Our winter here in the Midwest has been much milder this year. As for the trucking industry, one would think that lower fuel prices might shore up some of the balance sheets and Capex of these trucking companies. Just a thought.
Matt Jauchius, from CMT's B.O.D.'s, was quoted this week in the WSJ. As CMO at Nationwide, he was instrumental in bringing the downbeat commercial to the viewing audience of the BIG GAME. That was the focus of the article. My take on this is that he is a man that takes chances and may have a positive influence on the CMT board going forward.
Sentiment: Strong Buy