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Core Molding Technologies Inc. Message Board

huddlehat 9 posts  |  Last Activity: Jun 25, 2014 9:08 PM Member since: Dec 30, 2004
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  • Reply to

    More Insider Selling

    by huddlehat Jun 11, 2014 9:28 PM
    huddlehat huddlehat Jun 25, 2014 9:08 PM Flag

    I also think they are giving up potential gains by selling at this time and at these prices. I understand estate planning: they have a lot of their portfolio wrapped up in CMT shares. The timing just seems early. The only logical explanation I can fathom is that they are going to continue selling into this CMT rally. They cannot just dump 40-60% of their shares in a week. My guess is that every three months you will see a round of selling. In my estimation, the insiders have not been great market timers. They could have loaded up in the $6-$8 range and they didn't. Don't be spooked by more selling in the months to come. It is to be expected. The numbers should look good in this upcoming earnings report.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    All we need is a $0.20 quarterly dividend

    by bridgejumper08 Jun 19, 2014 2:42 PM
    huddlehat huddlehat Jun 22, 2014 9:44 AM Flag

    On page 15 of the current 10k, the company writes:

    The Company made no payments of cash dividends during 2013 and 2012. The Company currently expects that its earnings will be retained to finance the growth and development of its business and does not anticipate paying dividends on its common stock in the foreseeable future.

    That being said, the company initially paid dividends when it went public. It appears that they were too generous and the business fell off. They then eliminated the dividend and the stock suffered as a result. Don't forget that any earnings from MX are held in that country and are not eligible for dividends unless repatriated (requiring taxes to be paid by the company). I have never seen how much of the balance sheet is held out of the country. While I would like a small dividend, I have come to appreciate a clean balance sheet. That makes acquisitions possible and makes them attractive as an acquisition. The insider sales would tell you that neither is in the works at the moment.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • huddlehat by huddlehat Jun 11, 2014 9:28 PM Flag

    I am a little surprised at the timing of some insider selling. By my account Klestinec recently reduced his holdings by 20% and Barnett by a tad more than 15% (maybe another 5% still to come?). Zimmer added a little better than 9% to his holdings. Yeah, Zimmer! Maybe somebody can enlighten me. The weakest earnings from last year came from the second quarter. That should make this next earning release look really good by comparison. Maybe they are just diversifying their investments. My assumption is that they are not expecting a short term "pop" from the market. Any insights?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • huddlehat by huddlehat May 7, 2014 9:42 PM Flag

    I guess this is the reason that companies are rewarded for new business relationships. Volvo sales 1Q13 1.746M; 1Q14 10.246M. On 3/21/13 the company projected sales to Volvo of 26-30M. Granted sales may not be even across the four quarters of the year, but this is a shot in the arm to CMT going forward. Paccar sales declined 3.1M y-o-y in the first quarter.

    Book value is now approaching $10 a share. I take the long view on a company. The balance sheet is getting stronger. It appears that they are financing their manufacturing expansion via cash flow from Volvo and not tacking it onto LTD. While I think a higher share price for CMT is justified, I am not unhappy if it stabilizes at these levels. When it hit $13 a share in '05, CMT had 10M shares outstanding ($130M Market Cap and an EV even higher). Now with 7.5M shares outstanding it has a Market Cap of about $93M. The book value is better than double the $3-4 range back then. CMT doesn't offer the steadily increasing earnings y-o-y that many investors covet. It's not built that way. They remain profitable during the down years and can swing to exaggerated earnings during the good years. To be happy holding CMT stock for the long run you have to equate their earnings to your own wages. Very few of us have had the fortune of ever increasing earnings over our lifetime. If the company remains prudent the cycle of earnings will bring greater riches to the balance sheet. I could see this company debt free in 2-4 years. My opinion is that the CMT shareholders are in a good spot right now even though the market is not rewarding them at the moment.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Westport Innovations

    by jeefco2004 May 2, 2014 1:48 PM
    huddlehat huddlehat May 4, 2014 11:01 AM Flag

    In all cases, it is good that CMT is open ended. It doesn't matter what kind of engine goes under the hood, they just want to make the hood. It looks like earnings should get released this week as last year they were released on May 7th. The stock was flat after earnings release last year having first jumped in March on the Volvo new business award. The extra sales will crystallize into higher earnings at some point. Could this be the quarter?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Go & Do Likewise Gents....

    by streetsmart_player Apr 25, 2014 12:39 AM
    huddlehat huddlehat Apr 27, 2014 11:06 AM Flag

    Google mergermarket and CMT and look for an article from Sep 20, 2013. Straight from the CEO Barnett's mouth.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Go & Do Likewise Gents....

    by streetsmart_player Apr 25, 2014 12:39 AM
    huddlehat huddlehat Apr 26, 2014 7:47 PM Flag

    It looks like they booked the promised $5M from Volvo in the 4th quarter. Correct me if I am wrong, where is the step up in sales to Navistar and Paccar? My guess is that they are still in the pipeline. Those are higher margin sales for the time being until they get past the learning curve on the Volvo business. With their balance sheet improving, I wouldn't be surprised to see an acquisition this year, especially in Canada. My feeling is that they want to stay with their strengths and are not looking to diversify to another line of business. Their LTD is the lowest it has been in ten years, now below $3M. Maybe even below $2M after first quarter earnings. The comparables are .23, .21, .26 and .21 from '13. It feels just like one year ago right before the Volvo contract got announced. You see potential, the market is not validating your perception of where CMT should go and then everybody gets on the bus at the same time. If you got off the bus, it's time to get back on and get a good seat at a fair price.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Will it See $20 Ever Again

    by westnash1 Apr 15, 2014 11:02 AM
    huddlehat huddlehat Apr 25, 2014 9:37 PM Flag

    Wet Nappy,
    It's time to get the diaper changed. I have never heard a grown person cry so much. You are stalking this board like an ex's Facebook page. Did you not understand the current CC? The first two quarters will be mediocre, the last six months and next year are expected to be better. An investor takes the long view; a speculator thinks short term. I am a little confused by your blather. If you think the management is #$%$, why are you trying to talk down the price so you can purchase it at a cheaper price. If I have lost faith in a company's management, I don't want their stock at any price. Not all companies offer CC's. i give them credit for that. If you are a disgruntled ex-employee, I understand your diatribe. Expectations are low for RCKY; I only see HOLD's out there by the experts. Investors, if management is to deliver on their promises, you will get your best price in the next ninety days before the next CC. My opinion is that at this price or lower, you get a nice entry price. If Wet Nappy is right and management doesn't deliver, I don't think you have too much downside as long as they continue their dividend. I only care about the share price when I sell, but with a DRIP I buy more shares when the price is down. Good Luck to all Long Term Shareholders.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    I sold out. Here is why

    by chrisgdorn Apr 10, 2014 3:54 PM
    huddlehat huddlehat Apr 12, 2014 9:05 AM Flag

    I myself think the stock is expensive using traditional valuation methods. I am a value investor. On a P/E and a P/S, it is much higher than I would spend on any stock. On a valuation of earnings growth going forward, ditto. BUT I have been buying this stock since '09 and was very happy to double up a bit under $6 recently. This company may hockey stick for some reason that I cannot foretell at this point, but that you cannot deny. The potential is open ended. To be able to modify their software to predict missile trajectories, to be able to tell how soon antibiotics will clear detection on an animal so that the product can be sold overseas, to partner with the FDA on some studies and be a domestic company, that to me is a moat. They should not be bulked with the biotechs. My crude understanding of biotechs is that they spend a large amount of money looking for the home run. Their balance sheet gets depleted from strike outs and then they go into the equity market at the wrong time diluting existing shareholders and making future earnings divisible by a greater amount of shares. This company is frugal. The latest NCE was projected to cost $100K (down from the $150K malaria NCE), but was actually closer to $50K. They pay out virtually all of their earnings while maintaining a pristine balance sheet. While the sales are only $10M a year, they have an 80% gross margin and 30% net profit margin. Just think if they can grow their sales by even a small amount or raise prices. It goes right to the bottom line. If drug resistant TB were to spread, and I think that would be a great new NCE (although they have stated that is on hold for now and much of the information they would need would have to be in the public domain), how valuable would this company be? I am glad you made money and I hope you become a shareholder again in the future. I don't know what this company is worth, but I think it's worth more than $6 a share.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

CMT
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