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Herbalife Ltd. Message Board

hudget 79 posts  |  Last Activity: Dec 24, 2014 10:18 AM Member since: Oct 27, 2000
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  • Reply to


    by hudget Dec 22, 2014 10:04 AM
    hudget hudget Dec 24, 2014 10:18 AM Flag

    thanks but I dont see HLF f1 on the list. What is their retail price?

  • hudget by hudget Dec 22, 2014 10:04 AM Flag

    Please publish your analysis comparing the price of F1 with other protein shakes as I have not seen this.

  • hudget hudget Dec 22, 2014 10:03 AM Flag

    The reason is obvious as to why HLF does not sue Ackman. They are "guilty of running a pyramid scheme" and any legal action would simply prove that. Case closed.

  • Reply to

    smoke & mirrros

    by lucky_lenny_1964 Dec 19, 2014 9:14 AM
    hudget hudget Dec 19, 2014 3:29 PM Flag

    I have not seen your comparison list. Publish it again and I will take a lool

  • hudget hudget Dec 18, 2014 5:35 PM Flag

    If longs, and even make believe longs like flutie, have not received the message through their thick skulls with the share price dropping 55% YTD; then NOTHING you say will make any difference. It is best to simply let Mr. Market take care of them some more! Even then they will claim it is because of Ackman, or government or regulators, or evil shorts, or some other stupid reason and will NEVER figure out the reason for their huge financial loss is they INVESTED IN A PYRAMID SCHEME. LOL

  • Reply to

    Mr. Gratziani admitted on video

    by texexec63 Dec 18, 2014 4:33 PM
    hudget hudget Dec 18, 2014 5:09 PM Flag

    He also admitted that the vast majority of distributors loaded up in the last two days of the month in order to meet the personal minimum volume requirement to get their royalty over rides. He said in his big down stream half the total revenue comes in the last two days then he went on to say the reason as stated above.

  • hudget hudget Dec 18, 2014 1:30 PM Flag

    they try to attack Ackman because they "think" he is the problem. They try to attack his credibility but they can not argue with his short term or long term investment results, which have been SPECTACULAR. they have NO argument for the balance Sheet which is in horrible shape, or the ill conceived stock buy back plan. they dismiss VZ and all the other currency problems. They rationalize the loss of the dividend. They pretend the last two quarters of bad results do not matter and the HUGE drop in share price this year. They have NO answer for why HLF management does NOTHING if Ackman is really lying or telling untruths about their company. What legitimate company would let someone slander, libel and lie over and over about their model if it was not spot on with no legal action? Mr. market is teaching them a good lesson if they really are long and the tutorials will continue.

  • Reply to

    The "Video" released by Ackman

    by hudget Dec 18, 2014 11:34 AM
    hudget hudget Dec 18, 2014 1:00 PM Flag

    There are many alternatives that are much better and cost less and are NOT associated with a pyramid marketing structure. F1 is a cheap commodity protein drink at its best. the business opportunity is a fraud.

  • hudget hudget Dec 18, 2014 11:52 AM Flag

    I am done with giving you free advice and doing your homework for you. I have given you enough already. BTW, I think you meant "moot" not mute. but mute would be a good start for you from here forward as I think most on this board would agree. LOL.

  • hudget hudget Dec 18, 2014 11:42 AM Flag

    Yes, let us look under pershing square "hood" and see what is there. Oh yea, YTD returns through NOV 2014 of 51.5% and after expenses still net return through november of 41.2%. ALSO Outperformed by large margin peers and the S&P since inception 11 years ago. That looks to me like a well tuned engine firing on all cylinders.

  • was actually quite interesting as I watched most of the three videos. I do my due diligence LOL. Anyway, I thought PS did cherry pick the presentation to spin their side but the over riding theme of the three hours worth of video was the chairmans club presenter basically admitting HLF in the past has relied on continuous recruiting and loading up these recruits to generate their numbers and that over 90% fail. that has not changed. Nobody in the audience argued with him. His theme however, was the need to change to more of a retail oriented enviornment in order to sustain HLF going forward. I think they have tried and are trying to do this but imo it is NOT working. Sure they can claim all they want about helping people with their nutritional needs but at the end of the day without the false business promise this puppy is a single digit midget. they simply do not have the goods to pull it off. commmodity products, untrained distributors/members, over priced, heavy expense and taxes laid on top and trying to pawn themselves off as wellness coaches. Their bread and butter is loading up new distributors who are pursuing an unattainable false business opportunity and without that we are seeing in the last two quarters what happens to growth. And with the problems in currency in most of their major markets they have more issues.

  • hudget hudget Dec 18, 2014 11:27 AM Flag

    Cash flow is slowing rapidly as per their recent statements. Plus much of their cash is oversees and subject to taxes if brought in to pay. 200 million last quarter in write downs from VZ is just the beginning imo. they are NOT paying a dividend OR buying back any stock. The stock was high 60s when they WERE BUYING and now that it is in high 30's they DON"T BUY. That tells you all you need to know about managements own opinion as to cash flow projections. End of lesson.

  • hudget hudget Dec 18, 2014 11:22 AM Flag

    He said so in his recent interview on Bloomberg plus here it is from his interview with matt on SA.

    Bill: Sure, I would say roughly 30% of our position is held in an actual short position in Herbalife common stock. The balance of our position is held principally in over-the-counter put options. Originally, most of those put options were going to expire in January of next year [2015]. We have now rolled out their maturities. We have the flexibility to further extend them if we choose to do so. Our decision on what to do going forward will be made as fiduciaries for our investors. When I look at things today, we shorted originally at an average cost of around $48. Today, with the stock around $38 [at the time of this interview], I think it is a much better risk/reward than it was when we started. So, as a result, we are keeping the position on.

  • hudget hudget Dec 18, 2014 9:40 AM Flag

    Pershing has converted most of the jan 15 puts to 2016 dates so that argument holds no water. This was done before the release of the video. On its face HLF looks like a value stock but in reality it is a value trap because the base of its earnings is rapidly eroding. Plus the balance sheet is in TATERS. It is over leveraged and it is very questionable IF they can refinance or repay the massive debt built up with a very poorly conceived stock purchase at prices WAY HIGHER than here. Those are the facts jack.

  • Too MUCH. 2nd Question. Can they meet their payments? QUESTIONABLE. So longs are left with a company that is loaded with debt, has cash restricted and decreasing cash flow because duped distributors are harder and harder to come by which is the basic business model for over 30 years. Sounds like a very poor investment to me at this point. I guess Uncle Bill agrees with me. How about Uncle CARL? oh yea, he is stuck with this lemon on the long side and his five board seats have serious fiduciary liability written all over them.

  • oh sorry. HLF has NO DIVIDEND. But why? oh yea, management squandered it on an ill conceived stock buyback at MUCH HIGHER PRICES. Now the balance sheet is in TATERS. The stock price has FALLEN and longs are left with a bunch of cheap commodity protein that they are having more and more difficulty unloading on DUPED distributors with their FALSE income opportunities. And a lot of the cash they have is locked up oversees with tax consequences and still unfavorable exchange rates (think VZ and think overstated). Pretty much sums up the year i guess. EXPECT more of the same in 2015!!

  • is what William Keep asked of Warren Buffet in a recent letter. Since Buffet owns pampered chef he is asking him to help develop the standards. No response from Buffet yet but that could be huge if WEB decides to act. I would think that tracking and recording actual RETAIL SALES would have to be one of the new standards. That puts HLF current model in SERIOUS trouble. Lets hope WEB acts and leads the way as pampered chef imo is one of the MLM models that actually has a lot of legitimate retail sales and can prove it. HLF constantly FIGHTS keeping these records as they KNOW what it will reveal. PYRAMID recruiting scheme.

  • to be a really really good con man. It is not coincidental that this 1% is about the same as the success rate of HLF distributors. Only the really good con men and women make it. Nobody makes it selling this stuff at retail. It is virtually impossible except for minor quantities that could not support someone in Ethiopia on the annual earnings generated. One must be a recruiting con man machine to make it. And even this elite 1% is finding it tougher and tougher to find those gullible enough to sign up below them in a mature pyramid.

  • Reply to

    Make Believe Accounting

    by hudget Nov 6, 2014 1:37 PM
    hudget hudget Nov 6, 2014 4:32 PM Flag

    The only thing dumber than your idiotic comments, would be me continuing to address your obtuse comments and complete lack of logic. You are a bore.

  • Reply to

    Make Believe Accounting

    by hudget Nov 6, 2014 1:37 PM
    hudget hudget Nov 6, 2014 4:21 PM Flag

    If you look at their financial statements look at their financial statements and find the income and expense statement for the last quarter. On it you will see a LOSS before income taxes of slightly over 2 million dollars. Then you will see a tax credit of a little over 13 million for a net (after tax) profit of around 11 million. But they actually LOST money using GAAP accounting on a pre tax basis. then what they did is they EXCLUDED a lot of expenses from GAAP accounting, and said on a NON GAAP basis (think of this as make believe accounting basis) they actually made money pre tax.

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