This is a very good long term story. It was proof of concept. Results were quite compelling, but it will take a while for the stock price to catch up to the story. Just think of all the other autoimmune diseases for which there is opportunity (Humira is biggest selling drug in world!). Atezla selling at $700MM per year clip in psoriasis and we could steal that market.
Certainly the short thesis is dead.
Just for fun we still have the Alzheimers molecule as a kicker too. B.I. supposed to initiate trial with it some time this year.
Plenty of cash to get well into PhII trial.
All systems go for now.................
So this stock was at $9.50 two weeks ago ahead of trial results.
On March 4th The analyst at Stifel issues a note saying he expected bad trial results because they cut enrollment off early.
Last night we find out they actually cut trial off early because RESULTS WERE EXCEPTIONALLY GOOD, efficacy was certain and they wanted to get a head start on pivotal trials.
Now the guy upgrades VTAE to a buy again.
Got to love Wall Street analysts!
Market mechanics are currently holding stock price back. They need to raise cash, most obvious way will be share issuance. Once that is out of the way, we can head higher.
More importantly they got the Cerberus debt waiver and they are submitting all of the back SEC filings as I type.
To be frank, ESI has REAL schools, trades schools, schools where graduates get jobs.
Seems to me if APOL (University of Pheonix) can get taken private, these guys CERTAINLY can go private at a much higher price based on current cash flows.
I presume we'll see a press release tomorrow?
Thanks. Again I'm new to the story, just getting up to speed. I'll keep CTSO on my watch list and check back periodically.
What I find peculiar is that when for the first time they do give forward guidance they give guidance that seems for the most part intended to be useless (assuming you inventory indicator holds even somewhat true). For Pete's sake, it's March 9th, we're more than 3/4 through the quarter, barring some big end of quarter order, they know within a few thousand dollars exactly what revenues are going to be.
Unless they actually did hit a revenue air pocket, they must have had their reasons for such strange guidance. But darned if I could tell you what the motive is at this point. Why comment at all? I could only speculate that they want to establish a pattern of lumpiness in revenue visability such that analysts/investors don't blow a gasket if/when they do have a one quarter revenue shortfall some time down the road. (Or so they they want to have cover against frivalous class action lawsuits down the road).
Now I've got myself intrigued. It will be quite fascinating to see where March revs do come in when announced and will tell something about how management plans to communicate to shareholders over time.
I'll be back!
New to the story here. The huge revenue growth in tonight's press release caught my eye, However....
Am I reading the forward revenue guidance correctly? From the press release......
---- CytoSorbents has not historically given financial guidance on quarterly results until the quarter has been completed. However, we continue to expect our first quarter 2016 product sales to meet or exceed that achieved in the first quarter of 2015. -----
Looking back at last year, March quarter product sales were only $700K. That level of revenue would be well below the just completed Dec quarter ($1.5MM) and significantly below current analyst March estimates of $1.8MM rev.
On the Conf Call, at time 48:50 the Brean analayst asked CEO specifically if Mar qtr product revs would exceed Dec qtr. CEO would only reiterate Mar 2016 revenue would be higher than last March qtrs $700K.
Am I missing something here? Was December some kind of a big stocking quarter for a new customer? Analysts clearly have high expectations for coming quarter. Was this guidance some kind of a reduction in uptake expectations?
CTSO looks like an interesting long term story, but with impending need for cash for U.S. trials, ongoing operations cash burn, high company valuation (12X next years revenues) and impending capital raise, seems like stock has big overhang until they can start exceeding analyst rev expectations, announce some kind of new parternship, or until required second U.S. trial is completed with subsequent U.S. approval sometime in mid/late 2017.
Any thoughts? Specifically on next quarter revenue expectations, thats a puzzler....
Benioff just dope slapped Cramer about his dead Apple watch.
Said he's still bullish FIT.
I think it might be safe to take a nibble.
Do some math, next Q revs will be the low point, but gr margins indicate they should actually be more profitable than this qtr non-gap. Low margin 6" wafer line gone. Higher margin 8" only now. I liked tone of the CC. Humble confidence. Stock is cheap and they aren't going out of business.
In this market it's going to take some patience, but I've been buying some this morning.