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Crimson Exploration AŞ Message Board

hugeman99 12 posts  |  Last Activity: May 12, 2016 7:28 AM Member since: Jan 21, 1998
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  • Reply to

    Debt in exchange for shares just posted..

    by dmorgan2151 May 12, 2016 7:17 AM
    hugeman99 hugeman99 May 12, 2016 7:28 AM Flag

    That's how I read it, Put rights were part of the debt that was bought. Good move on CHK's part.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Earnings today after close.

    by hob9 May 4, 2016 10:45 AM
    hugeman99 hugeman99 May 6, 2016 8:02 AM Flag

    Yeah, things are running ahead of expectations. They are focused on cutting costs as rev growth resumes and gross margins are increasing with new high value chip wins.

    We probably won't rocket overnight, but eventually serious investors will catch on to the fact these guys are a big player in amoled driver chips.

  • hugeman99 hugeman99 May 5, 2016 9:39 PM Flag

    Let me correct myself. They won't be out of cash in Sept, they'll be out of cash in June.

    After this quarter's results, probability of warrant exercise is highly questionable unless of course the warrant holdrs start shorting the stock tomorrow morning to lock in a profit, at which point there will be a ceiling over the stock price for the forseeable future.

  • I'd love to be an optimist on the near term stock price, but reality says we're headind down for the next 6 months.....

    This quarter results were a serious bust. Zilch revenue in spite of all the hype about new order wins. They are all small order niche products and in total only equal $15 mill revenue over 3 years. (Do you hink they stacked up the press releases ahead of earnings to juice the stock price????)

    No revenue from any of these orders until the Sept qtr and revenue will ramp slowly per the conf call. Because volumes are low, anything they sell in the next 9-18 mo will be at a loss. In other words.... they'll be burning lots more cash until at least 2017.

    At this point they are pretty much out of money, only $4million left at end of Mar qtr and per the conf call they are burning about $4.2 million per quarter. And they said they need to start adding production personnel in anticipation of future sales, read that as more espenses!!!

    So we know they will be broke by September, if not sooner. They need cash and need it NOW!

    Last time they raised cash in November of last year they priced the offering 45% below the closing stock price of the prior day AND they added in the highly dillutive warrant kicker. We all know what the stock did... it went in the toilet for 3 months. The stock is up 500% in the last three months so although the discount might not be quite as bad, I expect any stock offering to be price well in the hole.

    They have the outstanding S-3 shelf stock offering filed with the SEC so they can issue stock at any moment.

    My take...... set and wait until 5-10 days after the secondary stock offering. The offering price will be seriously in the hole and the stock will languish for at least 5 days as the market makers torture small investors after which we can hopefully start to climb back.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Musk dances around the capital raise question

    by ndibari73 May 4, 2016 6:00 PM
    hugeman99 hugeman99 May 4, 2016 6:16 PM Flag

    WHAT TOOK SO LONG, 45 minutes into the call and somebody FINALLY has the balls to ask Elon where he's going to get the cash for this accelerated ramp of M3.

    Got to give Elong credit for being frank/honest...... We can't rely on customer deposits for capital. We'll need to do a combination of equity and debt capital raise.

    Now the question is.......... how much equity, how much debt and WHEN...............

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Lets see, MRNA paid Touring with shares, no cash. When deal is consumate Touring will own 2/3 of MRNA.

    With little cost, Touring can go public at any point down the road by reverse merging into MRNA.

    Still, MRNA has to come up with cash to finance late stage trials, so up, up and away for the stock price is not likely immediately.

    Still, it could be an interesting combo down the road.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • hugeman99 hugeman99 Mar 17, 2016 10:27 AM Flag

    This is a very good long term story. It was proof of concept. Results were quite compelling, but it will take a while for the stock price to catch up to the story. Just think of all the other autoimmune diseases for which there is opportunity (Humira is biggest selling drug in world!). Atezla selling at $700MM per year clip in psoriasis and we could steal that market.

    Certainly the short thesis is dead.

    Just for fun we still have the Alzheimers molecule as a kicker too. B.I. supposed to initiate trial with it some time this year.

    Plenty of cash to get well into PhII trial.

    All systems go for now.................

  • So this stock was at $9.50 two weeks ago ahead of trial results.

    On March 4th The analyst at Stifel issues a note saying he expected bad trial results because they cut enrollment off early.

    Last night we find out they actually cut trial off early because RESULTS WERE EXCEPTIONALLY GOOD, efficacy was certain and they wanted to get a head start on pivotal trials.

    Now the guy upgrades VTAE to a buy again.

    Got to love Wall Street analysts!

  • hugeman99 hugeman99 Mar 15, 2016 10:49 AM Flag

    Market mechanics are currently holding stock price back. They need to raise cash, most obvious way will be share issuance. Once that is out of the way, we can head higher.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    ESI could open well above $ 7 tomorrow

    by mondaynighttrader Mar 14, 2016 5:06 PM
    hugeman99 hugeman99 Mar 14, 2016 5:12 PM Flag

    More importantly they got the Cerberus debt waiver and they are submitting all of the back SEC filings as I type.

    To be frank, ESI has REAL schools, trades schools, schools where graduates get jobs.

    Seems to me if APOL (University of Pheonix) can get taken private, these guys CERTAINLY can go private at a much higher price based on current cash flows.

    I presume we'll see a press release tomorrow?

  • hugeman99 hugeman99 Mar 9, 2016 9:01 PM Flag

    Thanks. Again I'm new to the story, just getting up to speed. I'll keep CTSO on my watch list and check back periodically.

    What I find peculiar is that when for the first time they do give forward guidance they give guidance that seems for the most part intended to be useless (assuming you inventory indicator holds even somewhat true). For Pete's sake, it's March 9th, we're more than 3/4 through the quarter, barring some big end of quarter order, they know within a few thousand dollars exactly what revenues are going to be.

    Unless they actually did hit a revenue air pocket, they must have had their reasons for such strange guidance. But darned if I could tell you what the motive is at this point. Why comment at all? I could only speculate that they want to establish a pattern of lumpiness in revenue visability such that analysts/investors don't blow a gasket if/when they do have a one quarter revenue shortfall some time down the road. (Or so they they want to have cover against frivalous class action lawsuits down the road).

    Now I've got myself intrigued. It will be quite fascinating to see where March revs do come in when announced and will tell something about how management plans to communicate to shareholders over time.

    I'll be back!

  • New to the story here. The huge revenue growth in tonight's press release caught my eye, However....

    Am I reading the forward revenue guidance correctly? From the press release......

    ---- CytoSorbents has not historically given financial guidance on quarterly results until the quarter has been completed. However, we continue to expect our first quarter 2016 product sales to meet or exceed that achieved in the first quarter of 2015. -----

    Looking back at last year, March quarter product sales were only $700K. That level of revenue would be well below the just completed Dec quarter ($1.5MM) and significantly below current analyst March estimates of $1.8MM rev.

    On the Conf Call, at time 48:50 the Brean analayst asked CEO specifically if Mar qtr product revs would exceed Dec qtr. CEO would only reiterate Mar 2016 revenue would be higher than last March qtrs $700K.

    Am I missing something here? Was December some kind of a big stocking quarter for a new customer? Analysts clearly have high expectations for coming quarter. Was this guidance some kind of a reduction in uptake expectations?

    CTSO looks like an interesting long term story, but with impending need for cash for U.S. trials, ongoing operations cash burn, high company valuation (12X next years revenues) and impending capital raise, seems like stock has big overhang until they can start exceeding analyst rev expectations, announce some kind of new parternship, or until required second U.S. trial is completed with subsequent U.S. approval sometime in mid/late 2017.

    Any thoughts? Specifically on next quarter revenue expectations, thats a puzzler....

    Sentiment: Hold