Been occupied with other obligations lately. Still trading, but not much time for posting.
Dow Jones reporting Ophthotech has upped IPO price to $19-$20. I'd be really surprised if it came at that price. (By the way, I really blew my implied market cap calculation, I screwed up warrent conversion. OPHT coming public way cheaper than I would have thought. Is that a good thing?) Let's hope we don't get a Jim Cramer CNBC hype job on IPO day due to REGN association. I'd like to pick up a few shares in the open market and if Cramer pumps it hard it can easily add $5 or more to the opening price.
Friday's OHRP price crater.... I'm not much of a conspiracy theorist. The 96,468 block at $7.06 crossed at 4:00:01, $0.52 below the previous trade two seconds earlier. In hindsight it looks like a poorly executed market-on-close order by someone who didn't realize how thin this stock trades. Tough to see it as a short seller, stock isn't up enough to justify risk/reward to me. Whether a shorter or potential big buyer feigning weakness, I think they could have drove it to $7 range with a lot less shares at much better prices.
I bought more OHRP shares a couple of weeks ago in the $7.25 area, trying to manage my risk.
Again I commend the vast majority of posters on this board for their ability to stay on point, have some fun, and further the discussion in a civil, lighthearted, and non-personal way. I hope it can last.
I wish I could add more to the discussion. I should be able to get more active posting in a few weeks.
Jerry, can you elaborate specifically why you think Dr. T , Dr. Hirschman, and the major holders would sell at $1B? Easy to make such a statement, tougher to provide specifics.
Shieifer, Gilman and Shooter at REGN didn't sell, REGN now worth $28B. Heck, it's the dream of every Biotech startup CEO to run a major biotech, or at least be Scientific Officer Emeritus. Assuming efficacy and approval, with the massive cash generation & stock price appreciation they'll have from squalamine, Dr's T & Hirschman can go out and buy a half dozen start ups to build a pipeline without having to go begging to a single investment bank.
Beavertail, why do you act like such a jerk? I've scrolled through your last 20 posts on Yahoo and pretty much every one of them has been a smart alec remark. Why?
Do you dislike yourself that much? Do you behave like that in person?
This is a really good stock board. Try working with people, adding something to the conversation other than negative sarcasm.
Being a decent person can be gratifying. Sure it makes you vulnerable, but so what.
SRPT down $10 premarket.
I've previously commented on SRPT here. Essentially they have been lobbying the FDA to approve Eteplirsen for Duchenne muscular dystrphy based on a tiny nine subject PhII trial that only showed statistical significance IF you stripped out two non responding outliers.
This morning my faith in the FDA is confirmed. As much as SRPT management tried to massage the data and lobby the FDA by creating a groundswell from families of DMD suffers, the FDA will require a full placebo controlled PhIII trial.
What grinds me about SRPT managment is their refusal to agressively pursue a parallel PhIII trial path while pursuing their questionable attempt for early approval. I think they have really deceived DMD patients/families.
If SRPT management weren't such jerkwadds, they could already have the PhIII trial enrolling patients. With their arrogant attitude it's now still months away. Sad day for DMD suffers.
I was away from the screens when the news hit. Wasn't able to get a short trade off at a good price. SRPT dropped another $3 as I write. Not sure where it will settle with need for a 2 year trial. Don't get me wrong, I and many think Eteplirsen probably has efficacy, but geez, you need to have some solid data to back it up!
Again, I 'm no technician, but if OPHT breaks the 1st day opening price of $23, that wouldn't bode well for those who got in on the IPO or bought the first day. I haven't dug into any lock up expirations, but if they are approacing that could also be a factor.
It seems to me if this was an OHRP effect we would see some percentage of the money coming out of OHPT rolling into OHRP and that is clearly not the case.
Again, I'm not aware of any news catalysts due for 18 months or more that could move OPHT. You've got a percentage of your IPO buyers who are hedge fund, etc that only have to hold for 30 days to avoid getting black listed. I think this is just a rotation from short term momo buyers to mutual funds and institutions who actually have an idea what anti-PDGF means.
Microcapman, I agree. And as I have said previously, there will be pressure on doctors to CUT THE COST OF TREATMENT. Office administered injections are a gravy train for doctors. At some point, both private insurance and our overly generous government medical system will adopt the European model which pays for OUTCOMES, not procedures. as that change takes place, should Squalamine prove efficacious, it will provide a similar outcome at a far lesser cost and will become the first line choice because of LOW COST TO THE PAYOR! Certainly there will be a segment of the population for whom it is not the right choice, but I agree with you, it will be a minority of patients.
Feurerstein at thestreet agrees with Stuart. He's written three skeptical articles this year starting back in April when AMPE was at $4. No links allowed on yahoo so you'll have to do a search of thestreet website.
I wouldn't short AMPE if I could find shares, more prudent to buy long dated puts.
Has this video been mentioned here yet? It's an interview with OHRP CEO Dr. Taraporewala at the Aegis Healthcare Conference on Sept 28th. It's NOT the presentation, just an interview. For some reason the press release, dated Oct 9th, that led me to the interview does not show up on Yahoo Finance.
If you want to watch the video and since Yahoo won't let me give you a link, you need to do a google search for: Equities Global Financial Community. At the Equities website there is a ticker search box; enter OHRP. On the results page you will see links to an old interview as well as this most recent one. The 9/28/13 interview was the last one on the results list.
It's about 5 1/2 minutes long, nothing really new in the video that I could see, he reiterates 2Q14 interim data read out. At least the video puts a face on the company.
P.S. If you try to include anything that looks even close to a web address Yahoo deletes your post. This is my EIGHTH attempt to post, I've given up trying to disguise the web address.
Is your skepticism on Squalamine's mass appeal based in experience or just gut feel? I'm struggling to see the real downside (Squalamine stains on their shirts?). Maybe Livermore can speak to the risks of OVER administration of Squalamine, if that an issue? If over administration isn't a big deal, then then couldn't docs over prescribe to ensure optimal levels were maintained if a few drops were missed?
I may have already mentioned that having watched my mother go for periodic IV infusions for multiple myeloma, it was a real joy for her and my brother who drove her to appointments when she was switched to Thalomid pills that she could take at home. They dreaded the thought of going to the infusion center (not much different than an injection center I would presume). My mother was diligent in taking her meds, even at 84 she did it herself. Old people like routines.
If a patient is capable of living on their own, chances are they are capable of doing a decent job of giving themselves drops. If not, whomever is their caregiver can administer. And as I think I have also mentioned, doctors are under pressure from the government AND insurance companies to CUT COSTS. There will be pressure for Squalamine drops on multiple fronts.
I know I'm a lay person in this regard, but personal experience tells me patients are going to want this.
Let us know if Bob is buying OHRP stock, THAT would be a bullish sign. If you are serious that you might call Bob, he may know other patients in the trial. It would also be interesting to get his personal viewpoint on drops versus a poke in the eye.
Its going to take something pretty bad to push this stock down and hold it down at this point.
p.s. Watching time/sales on OHRP. Somebody just gobbled up a few shares.
If nothing else, I know what gets their juices flowing.
We're now flirting with an 8 handle on the price. I am as far from a technical trader as you get, but are we looking to break out of a 'cup & handle' formation? I think William O'Neil of Investors Business Daily fame calls that the most bullish chart formation there is. It looks like we'll hit resistance at the old 52wk high of $8.75. At that point OHRP will start hitting the screens of lots of technical and techno/fundamental traders. If it gets through $9 there is no resistance until the old highs around $16 in 2004 after that, the sky ($1200?) is the limit.
Do I sound authoritative? Ha Ha. I HATE TECHNICAL CHART TRADING!
Patient Bob just adds intrigue to the story for me.
Livermore & others, when should we expect full enrollment in the PhII trial?
With enrollment starting in late Sept 2012 and 50%, 60 patients, being reached in end of June 2013, should we just assume it will take another 9 months, i.e. end of March 2014? You would think enrollment would accelerate due to increased doctor interest and streamlined enrollment process.
Per the original press release announcing the trial, they have 21 participating sites. That works out to only one patient every three months per site. Seems quite slow. Granted, you need to have a treatment naive patient walk into your office who meets all other criteria, but still, seems slow.
I also noticed that they originally expected interim data by end of 2013 which implies enrollment of first 60 patients was three months longer than planned.
Maybe we are patient constrained, but it sure would be nice to see a full enrollment press release some time in January or earlier.
I would suggest they were being conservative in their expectations of squalamine efficacy, both immediate and long term. It would have been overly optimistic to think subjects would not ever need an injection. Thus they would get a baseline of the patients Lucentis requirements and as the trial progressed they hoped the interval would be extended as the level of Squalamine built up in the back of the eye. Just my guess.
Also, expounding on what Stuart said, I'm not sure how many people you would get to sign up for the trial if there was the potential that your wet AMD was not going to improve. With this design, it's guarenteed by being given Lucentis at the outset.
If the PhII trial goes as well as Dr. K's comments suggest, it will be interesting how they design the PhIII trial.
Wow, I would have thought OPHT would open MUCH higher! Took initial positions in long term and short term accounts at around $23.30. Have a hair triggar to sell on the short term position.
By the way, Cramer was not familiar with it on CNBC. When David faber mentioned it to him ahead of market open, he was a deer in the headlights, he just said something to the effect that with all the big oversubscriptions in biotech IPO's that it reminded him of 2005 (or some big biotech IPO year)
Is this an under the radar story? Lets see what happens.
I don't think it is good news. If I understand correctly, Advisory Boards are convened at the discretion of the FDA staffers. Thus it wasn't necessary.
I think an Advisory Board actually makes approval more questionable. It's possible Advisory Board participants could be more reluctant to accepting the cobbled together data set that CHTP is attempting to use to gain approval than we think the FDA staffers are.
Hence if the Board vote is split or even has more votes against approval than for approval, it would be more difficult for the FDA to approve Northera without another trial.
Can somebody tell me if there are specific flaws in my reasoning?
Are you guys full time traders or what? There is no way I could work a 40 hr week and be as involved in the market as you (Livermore) and Stuart are.
Anybody trade MDVN yesterday/today? Excellent results from PhIII trial of XTANDI in prostate cancer. Complete confusion in the market yesterday about the trial results gave great opportunity to buy in the $50 range. I sold my last position late today at $62+. MDVN probably gonna get bought for $80+.
I grabbed quite a bit of SMED this morning between $3.20 - $3.30. SMED is a microcap medical waste processor. Solid balance sheet, 20+% rev grower just turning profitable. Management getting agressive at growing company, I'm betting the Jockey (CEO Tusa), he's wiling to make changes to drive growth. Just booted his head of sales because subordinate was better at adding accounts. Huge operating leverage and lots of opportunity to steal business from big guys on price. Stericycle (Mega cap SRCL) ripe to get picked off on many accounts.
Anybody else think the steel stocks are due for a bounce? NUE and STLD no longer talking end of the world in their earnings release. I'm liking CLF into earnings tomorrow. Small position.
Coal? Now thats another story. It's a net cost/BTU situation. With Obama in the Whitehouse everybody afraid to touch coal because of potential future environmental constraints. Better to use cheap & clean nat gas until the supply/demand balance or swings back to alternatives. Plus the Chi-coms are trying to reduce the thickness of their air by reducing coal consumption.
I hate to talk about what I like/dislike in the market beccause other than a few long term holds (OHRP and a couple others) I have a hair triggar and don't want to screw other people making them think just because I love something today that I'll like it tomorrow.
p.s. I have to agree with you Livermore, other than hashing over the sme old info, we have to do SOMETHING until we get some data on squalamine.
Tried to pick up some PSDV in $1.85 range this morning premarket, I was too late, never got filled.
As much as docs may want to keep the office injection money train rolling, I'm guessing if there are alternatives to reduce/eliminate the procedure (everybody should go watch some of the injection videos on Youtube) I think the payors (govt & insurance companies) as well as patients will demand them. FDA getting pressure to approve anything that will reduce health care costs.